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IMF sees ‘bumps’ in path to lower inflation

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Underlying concerns are still there around services inflation, says IMF's Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

The International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that upside risks to inflation have increased, calling into question the prospect of multiple Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. 

In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the IMF said “the momentum on global disinflation is slowing, signaling bumps along the path.” The rise in sequential inflation in the U.S. earlier in 2024 has put it behind other major economies in the quantitative easing path, the report said. 

The report comes as traders ramp up bets for a Fed rate cut in September. Per the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, Wall Street has priced in a 100% chance of lower rates at the Sept. 18 meeting. Traders also expect another rate decrease in November.

However, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Tuesday that one rate cut from the Fed is most appropriate this year, highlighting still-stubborn services and wage inflation as complications to the path to lower inflation. 

Gourinchas said that while the robust wages and service inflation are “not necessarily a source of worry,” they are points of concern for the U.S. economy. His comments came after the U.S. Labor Department said the consumer price index grew last month at its slowest year-over-year pace since April 2021.

Despite the encouraging CPI report, Gourinchas stated the uptick in inflation earlier in the year indicates that the path toward lower inflation and rate cuts “could take a little bit longer than maybe the markets are expecting.” 

“We’re more in the camp that there could be some cuts in the latter part of the year but maybe just one, or 2024 and maybe the rest of 2025,” Gourinchas said. 

Across advanced economies globally, the IMF forecasts the rate of disinflation to slow in 2024 and 2025 due to broadly high service inflation and commodity prices. 

Concerning the U.S. economy, the financial institution lowered its growth outlook by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6% in 2024 on cooling consumption and slower-than-expected growth at the start of the year.

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Checks and Balance newsletter: Depending on America is a vulnerability

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Starting the day with a healthy breakfast is becoming a pricey luxury

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domoyega | E+ | Getty Images

Alicia Love typically purchases the most popular beans for Coffee Labs Roasters in a one-year deal with her coffee importer. But at the end of last year, prices were so high that she decided to wait the market out.

Instead, prices climbed even higher. With supplies running low, she signed a purchase order for a three-month supply, and hopes that prices will soon ease.

“At the time I thought, should we wait to sign this new deal?” Love, an owner of the Tarrytown, New York, business, told CNBC. “I’m kicking myself in the butt now for not doing it then.”

The initial deal would have cost Love roughly $4 per bag, which is for either 130 pounds or 152 pounds, depending on the variety. The three-month deal she just signed was for roughly $5 per bag.

The skyrocketing cost of coffee comes as egg prices are also rising without any end in sight. Both products are pillars of an American breakfast, which has long been one of the cheaper meals to eat either at home or on the go. The quickly escalating prices means consumers are changing their habits and businesses are scurrying to react.

A rapid rise

In the latest consumer price index report, Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed the price of eggs in the U.S. up 53% year over year. But the pace of gains has been rapid. From December to January, the average cost of a dozen spiked 15%, per FRED data. In the week ended March 3, a 7% week-over-week increase brought average prices above $8 a dozen, JPMorgan Chase said.

While egg production is suffering from a devastating avian flu outbreak, which has resulted in the culling of millions of hens. Some say the consolidation of the industry is exacerbating the problem. On Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. Department of Justice opened an investigation into antitrust practices that might be at play.

Coffee, meanwhile, is also reaching record-high prices. A dry spell in Brazil, which has hit crop yields, is largely at fault. Over the past 12 months, futures prices have more than doubled. Last month, coffee prices on the Intercontinental Exchange surpassed $4 per pound for the first time ever.

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Futures trading for coffee has spiked over the past 12 months.

“I’m hoping that we just have stability in the market. It’s very challenging to navigate the volatility, and the consumers are going to struggle with that,” said Andrew Blyth, coffee trading operations manager at Royal New York. “You can’t have menu prices changing once a month, especially for something as … routine as coffee.”

Consumers have gotten the message. Morgan Stanley said in a Wednesday note that its survey of consumer sentiment signaled the first negative reading since June 2024. This follows the University of Michigan’s own survey from February that showed consumers expect inflation to get worse in the near term.

Breakfast as a whole was already stretching consumers wallets in recent years, according to Robert Byrne, senior director of consumer research at Technomic’s food service segment.

“Speaking of breakfast more broadly, over the past few years we have seen affordability ratings for family-style chains (IHOP, Cracker Barrel, Denny’s, etc.) under greater pressure than what is reported across other restaurant segments,” Byrne said, in an interview.

That’s caused diners to shift their behavior, Byrne said.

“Breakfast is the easiest to either replace with something simple from home or even skip altogether,” Byrne said. He added, a recent Technomic survey found, on average, consumers use some type of foodservice for breakfast roughly 1.2 times per week.

“With inflation impacting all consumers – even affluent diners are pulling back on frequency – the thought is consumers are skipping other types of occasions and instead saving up for a weekend splurge, which probably is a dinner,” he said.

Technomic’s research also shows consumers are walking away from more routine breakfast orders at quick service options like Dunkin’ or McDonald’s. Byrne said, when they do go now, it’s often either an “impulse” order or a substitute for a splurge at a restaurant.

Profits under pressure

The impact is being felt across the restaurant industry. Dine Brands, the parent of breakfast staple IHOP, has seen its stock pull back more than 13% this year and shares hit a 52-week low on Wednesday after providing a disappointing 2025 outlook. The majority of analysts polled by FactSet maintain a hold rating.

“For IHOP … we’re expecting sort of low to mid single-digit inflation cost for the year. And that’s really primarily – it’s really driven by eggs,” Dine Brands Chief Financial Officer Vance Chang said on the company’s earnings call. “Outside of that, I think there’s some headwinds with bacon and coffee as well.”

Dine Brands expects domestic same-store sales for IHOP to be in the range of down 1% to up 2% for fiscal 2025.

Facing similar pressures, Waffle House and Denny’s recently imposed a surcharge for menu items containing eggs as opposed to a straight up price hike. Byrne said such a move may be more bearable for consumers because it’s assumed the surcharge is a temporary increase. McDonald’s has held the line and said the company will not implement an egg surcharge.

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Restaurant stocks that offer robust breakfast menu items have been hit hard over the past year, with the exception of McDonald’s.

“My sense is that consumers may appreciate that it is noted as a temporary surcharge rather than a blanket price increase, as this implies that prices will return when the situation changes,” Byrne said. “On the flip side, printing menus is expensive and an operator may not be in a position to do so quickly.”

Restaurant stocks have well underperformed the market over the past year. McDonald’s is an outlier with a 10% gain over the past year, but Denny’s stock has plummeted more than 55% and Cracker Barrel has fallen 38% over the same period.

The impact of tariffs

More bad news could be coming for coffee drinkers. Coffee Labs’ Love said some decaffeinated coffee travels back and forth over the U.S. border and could be impacted by proposed tariffs.

She explained that if a roaster is using a washing method to decaffeinate their coffee, the mountain water used in the process comes from Mexico, but pre-roasted beans can be sent to Canada for processing. This means President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada could add a new layer of price pressures.

“This cost will show across the board ,” Love said. “The Canada tariff will make decaf coffee cost a lot more on top of the already high price.”

Blyth is less sure that decaf coffee will be hurt by the White House’s trade policy, but signaled there is still a lack of clarity.

“As of now we don’t believe it would incur a tariff, but we just don’t know yet. Hopefully there is more guidance in the coming days to help navigate the unknowns,” Blyth said.

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Justice Department is looking into egg prices in antitrust probe, report says

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Eggs are displayed for sale in a Manhattan grocery store on Feb. 25, 2025 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

The U.S. Justice Department has opened an investigation into potential antitrust issues related to the surging price of eggs, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

The investigation, which is in its early stages, includes a look at whether large egg producers have worked together to raise prices or reduce supply, the report said.

The news comes as the price of eggs has soared, leading some restaurants to announce menu changes and reports of grocery stores with empty shelves. For example, Denny’s announced last month that it was passing along rising egg costs to customers in the form of a surcharge.

In the latest consumer price index report, Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed the price of eggs up 53% year over year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the cost of eggs rose 15.2% just between December and January — this marked the largest increase in the eggs index since June 2015.

The price increases appear to be at least in part due to an outbreak of avian flu that has led egg producers to cull their populations. However, advocacy group Farm Action sent a letter last month to the DOJ and Federal Trade Commission, calling for an investigation into other causes.

CNBC has not independently confirmed that this investigation is ongoing. The Justice Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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