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Inflation rate at 2.4%, topping expectations

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Consumer prices rose 0.2% in September, hotter than expected; annual rate increased 2.4%

The pace of price increases over the past year was higher than forecast in September while jobless claims posted an unexpected jump following Hurricane Helene and the Boeing strike, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

The consumer price index, a broad gauge measuring the costs of goods and services across the U.S. economy, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. Both readings were 0.1 percentage point above the Dow Jones consensus.

The annual inflation rate was 0.1 percentage point lower than August and is the lowest since February 2021.

Excluding food and energy, core prices increased 0.3% on the month, putting the annual rate at 3.3%. Both core readings also were 0.1 percentage point above forecast.

A separate report Thursday showed weekly jobless claims hitting a 14-month high, indicating potential softness in the labor market despite the big jump in nonfarm payrolls in September. However, most of the surge could be tied to the hurricane and strike.

Much of the inflation increase — more than three-quarters of the move higher — came from a 0.4% jump in food prices and a 0.2% gain in shelter costs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in the release. That offset a 1.9% fall in energy prices.

Other items contributing to the gain included a 0.3% increase in used vehicle costs and a 0.2% rise in new vehicles. Medical care services were up 0.7% and apparel prices surged 1.1%.

Stock market futures moved lower following the report while Treasury yields were mixed.

The release comes as the Federal Reserve has begun to lower benchmark interest rates. After a half percentage point reduction in September, the central bank is expected to continue cutting, though the pace and degree remain in question.

Fed officials have become more confident that inflation is easing back toward their 2% goal while expressing some concern over the state of the labor market.

“The overall trend is what’s important, not the day to day fluctuations,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said said in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” following the release. “The overall trend over 12, 18 months is clearly that inflation has come down a lot, and the job market has cooled to a level which is around where we think full employment is.”

While the CPI is not the Fed’s official inflation barometer, it is part of the dashboard central bank policymakers use when making decisions. Several of its components filter directly into the Fed’s key personal consumption expenditures price index.

Though the inflation reading was higher than expected, traders in futures markets increased their bets that the Fed would lower rates by a quarter percentage point at their Nov. 6-7 policy meeting, to about 86%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

Goolsbee said the data is largely in line with Fed expectations and shouldn’t be viewed in isolation as having an outsized influence on policy.

“I just want to caution everybody, let’s settle down when one month numbers come in,” he said. “That’s not what we should be basing the monetary policy on. We should be basing it on the long part.”

In recent days, policymakers have said they see rising risks in the labor market, and another data point Thursday helped buttress that point.

Initial filings for unemployment benefits took an unexpected turn higher, hitting a seasonally adjusted 258,000 for the week ended Oct. 5. That was the highest total since Aug. 5, 2023, a gain of 33,000 from the previous week and well above the forecast for 230,000.

Continuing claims, which run a week behind, rose to 1.861 million, a rise of 42,000.

The jobless claims figures follow the damage from Hurricane Helene, which struck Sept. 26 and impacted a large swath of the Southeast. Florida and North Carolina, two of the hardest-hit states, posted a combined increase of 12,376, according to unadjusted data.

A strike by 33,000 Boeing workers also could be hitting the numbers. Michigan had the largest gain in claims, up 9,490 on the week.

On the inflation side, rising prices across a variety of food categories showed that it is proving sticky.

Egg prices leaped 8.4% higher, putting the 12-month unadjusted gain at 39.6%. Butter was up 2.8% on the month and 7.8% from a year ago.

However, shelter costs, which have held higher than Fed officials anticipated this year, were up 4.9% year over year, a step down that could indicate an easing of broader price pressures ahead. The category makes up more than one-third of the total weighting in calculating the CPI.

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Economics

Germany’s election will usher in new leadership — but might not change its economy

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Production at the VW plant in Emden.

Sina Schuldt | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

The struggling German economy has been a major talking point among critics of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ government during the latest election campaign — but analysts warn a new leadership might not turn these tides.

As voters prepare to head to the polls, it is now all but certain that Germany will soon have a new chancellor. The Christian Democratic Union’s Friedrich Merz is the firm favorite.

Merz has not shied away from blasting Scholz’s economic policies and from linking them to the lackluster state of Europe’s largest economy. He argues that a government under his leadership would give the economy the boost it needs.

Experts speaking to CNBC were less sure.

“There is a high risk that Germany will get a refurbished economic model after the elections, but not a brand new model that makes the competition jealous,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, told CNBC.

The CDU/CSU economic agenda

The CDU, which on a federal level ties up with regional sister party the Christian Social Union, is running on a “typical economic conservative program,” Brzeski said.

It includes income and corporate tax cuts, fewer subsidies and less bureaucracy, changes to social benefits, deregulation, support for innovation, start-ups and artificial intelligence and boosting investment among other policies, according to CDU/CSU campaigners.

“The weak parts of the positions are that the CDU/CSU is not very precise on how it wants to increase investments in infrastructure, digitalization and education. The intention is there, but the details are not,” Brzeski said, noting that the union appears to be aiming to revive Germany’s economic model without fully overhauling it.

“It is still a reform program which pretends that change can happen without pain,” he said.

Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of forecasting at research institute DIW Berlin, noted that the CDU is also looking to reach gross domestic product growth of around 2% again through its fiscal and economic program called “Agenda 2030.”

But reaching such levels of economic expansion in Germany “seems unrealistic,” not just temporarily, but also in the long run, she told CNBC.

Germany’s GDP declined in both 2023 and 2024. Recent quarterly growth readings have also been teetering on the verge of a technical recession, which has so far been narrowly avoided. The German economy shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with the previous three-month stretch, according to the latest reading.

Europe’s largest economy faces pressure in key industries like the auto sector, issues with infrastructure like the country’s rail network and a housebuilding crisis.

Dany-Knedlik also flagged the so-called debt brake, a long-standing fiscal rule that is enshrined in Germany’s constitution, which limits the size of the structural budget deficit and how much debt the government can take on.

Whether or not the clause should be overhauled has been a big part of the fiscal debate ahead of the election. While the CDU ideally does not want to change the debt brake, Merz has said that he may be open to some reform.

“To increase growth prospects substantially without increasing debt also seems rather unlikely,” DIW’s Dany-Knedlik said, adding that, if public investments were to rise within the limits of the debt brake, significant tax increases would be unavoidable.

“Taking into account that a 2 Percent growth target is to be reached within a 4 year legislation period, the Agenda 2030 in combination with conservatives attitude towards the debt break to me reads more of a wish list than a straight forward economic growth program,” she said.

Change in German government will deliver economic success, says CEO of German employers association

Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, sees some benefits to the plans of the CDU-CSU union, saying they would likely “be positive” for the economy, but warning that the resulting boost would be small.

“Tax cuts would support consumer spending and private investment, but weak sentiment means consumers may save a significant share of their additional after-tax income and firms may be reluctant to invest,” she told CNBC.  

Palmas nevertheless pointed out that not everyone would come away a winner from the new policies. Income tax cuts would benefit middle- and higher-income households more than those with a lower income, who would also be affected by potential reductions of social benefits.

Coalition talks ahead

Following the Sunday election, the CDU/CSU will almost certainly be left to find a coalition partner to form a majority government, with the Social Democratic Party or the Green party emerging as the likeliest candidates.

The parties will need to broker a coalition agreement outlining their joint goals, including on the economy — which could prove to be a difficult undertaking, Capital Economics’ Palmas said.

“The CDU and the SPD and Greens have significantly different economic policy positions,” she said, pointing to discrepancies over taxes and regulation. While the CDU/CSU want to reduce both items, the SPD and Greens seek to raise taxes and oppose deregulation in at least some areas, Palmas explained.

The group is nevertheless likely to hold the power in any potential negotiations as it will likely have their choice between partnering with the SPD or Greens.

“Accordingly, we suspect that the coalition agreement will include most of the CDU’s main economic proposals,” she said.

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