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Inflation sees the lowest annual rise since 2021

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Inflation rose, but the rise was minimal compared to the last three years.  (iStock )

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the main measure of inflation, increased 0.2% in September, a similar increase consumers saw in August and July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.

Over the last 12 months, the index increased 2.4%, the lowest yearly increase since February 2021. A rise in food and shelter costs made up 75% of the total increase in September. The shelter index rose by 0.2% in September while the food index increased by 0.4%.

Rising auto insurance premiums, medical care costs and airline fares also all drove the increase in CPI. Balancing out these increases are the recreation and communications indexes, both of which decreased month over month in September.

Energy costs fell significantly in September, as well. The energy index fell 1.9% over the month, after declining 0.8% in August.

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As inflation inches toward 2%, the Fed may cut rates soon

Although the CPI rose in September, the increase wasn’t as large as it has been the last three years, signaling to the Fed that it may be time to lower rates again.

The Federal Reserve has a goal of 2% inflation before it will significantly cut rates, so a small rise in the CPI is good news for consumers, despite high housing and food prices holding on.

Experts predict the Fed is poised to cut rates soon, after a half percentage point reduction in September. This was the first rate cut in four years and has had a direct impact on mortgage rates.

If you’re looking for lower rates on mortgages, an online marketplace could help you compare multiple offers and choose the best rate for you. Visit Credible to learn more about your loan options.

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Mortgage rates struggle, hovering around 6%

Mortgage rates hit a two-year low after the initial interest rate cut in September, with 30-year rates dropping to 6.08%. The drop in rates was temporary, with rates continuing to rise again. As of October 3rd, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.12%, according to Freddie Mac.

The short-lived dip in rates has had a positive effect on the market, with pending home sales rising 2% year over year at the beginning of October, Redfin reported. This rise is the largest increase in three years. Buyers flooded the market after the initial rate cut by the feds, helped by weeks of rates slowly dropping in August.

Prospective homebuyers shouldn’t get too excited, however. Experts don’t predict rates will fall by much more, but potential rate cuts at the end of the year could change that outlook. Major lenders don’t see rates dropping below 6%, with many predicting rates to hover between 6.2% to 6.4%.

If you’re interested in consolidating or refinancing debt, it can help to have experienced loan officers on your side. Visit Credible to get all your loan consolidation and refinancing questions answered.

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Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

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Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: MS, CSCO, ASML

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Morgan Stanley (MS) earnings Q3 2024

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Ted Pick, CEO Morgan Stanley, speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 18th, 2024.

Adam Galici | CNBC

Morgan Stanley topped analysts’ estimates for third quarter profit as its wealth management, trading and investment banking operations generated more revenue than expected.

Here’s what the company reported:

  • Earnings:$1.88 a share vs $1.58 LSEG estimate
  • Revenue: $15.38 billion vs. $14.41 billion estimate

Morgan Stanley had several tailwinds in its favor. The bank’s massive wealth management business was helped by high stock market values in the quarter, which inflates the management fees the bank collects.

Investment banking has rebounded after a dismal 2023, a trend that may continue as easing rates will encourage more financing and merger activity.

Finally, its Wall Street rivals have posted better-than-expected trading results, making it unlikely that the firm missed out on elevated activity.

JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup topped expectations, helped by better-than-expected revenue from trading or investment banking.

This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

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China’s Alibaba claims AI translation tool beats Google, ChatGPT

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Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba has invested heavily in its fast-growing international business as growth slows for its China-focused Taobao and Tmall business.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

BEIJING — Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba‘s international arm on Wednesday launched an updated version of its artificial intelligence-powered translation tool that, it says, is better than products offered by Google, DeepL and ChatGPT.

That’s based on an assessment of Alibaba International’s new model, Marco MT, by translation benchmark framework Flores, the Chinese company said.

Alibaba’s fast-growing international unit released the AI translation product as an update to one unveiled about a year ago, which it says already has 500,000 merchant users. Sellers based in one country can use the translation tool to create product pages in the language of the target market.

The new version is based only on large language models, allowing it to draw on contextual clues such as culture or industry-specific terms, Kaifu Zhang, vice president of Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group and head of the business’ artificial intelligence initiative, told CNBC in an interview Tuesday.

“The idea is that we want this AI tool to help the bottom line of the merchants, because if the merchants are doing well, the platform will be doing well,” he said.

Large language models power artificial intelligence applications such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which can also translate text. The models, trained on massive amounts of data, can generate humanlike responses to user prompts.

Alibaba’s translation tool is based on its own model called Qwen. The product supports 15 languages: Arabic, Chinese, Dutch, English, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Polish, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, Turkish and Ukrainian.

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Zhang said he expects “substantial demand” for the tool from Europe and the Americas. He also expects emerging markets to be a significant area of use.

When users of Alibaba.com — a site for suppliers to sell to businesses — are categorized by country, developing countries account for about half of the top 20 active AI tool users, Zhang said.

Chinese companies have increasingly looked abroad for growth opportunities, especially e-commerce merchants. PDD Holdings‘ Temu, fast fashion seller Shein and ByteDance’s TikTok are among the recent global market entrants. Many China-based merchants also sell on Amazon.com.

Contextual clues

Since Alibaba launched the first version of its AI translation tool last fall, the company said merchants have used it for more than 100 million product listings. Similar to other AI-based services, the basic pricing charges merchants by the amount of translated text.

Zhang declined to share how much the updated version would cost. He said it was included in some service bundles for merchants wanting simple exposure to overseas users.

His thinking is that contextual translation makes it much more likely that consumers decide to buy. He shared an example in which a colloquial Chinese description for a slipper would have turned off English-speaking consumers if it was only translated literally, without getting at the implied meaning.

“The updated translation engine is going to make Double 11 a better experience for consumers because of more authentic expression,” Zhang said, in reference to the Alibaba-led shopping festival that centers on Nov. 11 each year.

Alibaba’s international business includes platforms such as AliExpress and Lazada, which primarily targets Southeast Asia. The international unit reported sales growth of 32% to $4.03 billion in the quarter ended June from a year ago.

That’s in contrast to a 1% year-on-year drop in sales to $15.6 billion for Alibaba’s main Taobao and Tmall e-commerce business, which has focused on China.

The Taobao app is also popular with consumers in Singapore. In September, the app launched an AI-powered English version for users in the country.

Nomura analysts expect that Alibaba’s international revenue slowed slightly to 29% year-on-year growth in the quarter ended September, while operating losses narrowed, according to an Oct. 10 report. Alibaba has yet to announce when it will release quarterly earnings.

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