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Investor and Trump donor Paulson says market would ‘crash’ under Harris

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Hedge fund billionaire John Paulson says market would 'crash' under Harris tax plans

Hedge fund billionaire John Paulson, who made a name for himself by betting against the housing market during the financial crisis and who is today a prominent supporter of former President Donald Trump, said there could be a collapse in the financial markets and a recession if Vice President Kamala Harris’ proposed tax plans become a reality.

“They want to raise the corporate tax rate from 21 to 28%, they want to raise the capital gains tax from 20% to 39% and then they want to add a tax on unrealized capital gains of 25%,” Paulson said in an interview on CNBC’s “Money Movers” on Friday with Sara Eisen. “I think if they implement those policies, we’ll see a crash in the markets, no question about it.”

The Democratic presidential nominee proposed a 28% tax on long-term capital gains for any household with an annual income of $1 million or more, lower than the 39.6% rate that President Joe Biden laid out in his 2025 fiscal-year budget.

Meanwhile, Harris previously endorsed the tax increases proposed by Biden that include a 25% tax on unrealized gains for households worth at least $100 million, known as the billionaire minimum tax. However, people close to the Harris campaign, including investor Mark Cuban, have said she has no interest in taxing unrealized gains and there are doubts if any such plan could make it through Congress.

Paulson shot to fame and made a fortune after taking a massive bet against mortgage bonds using credit default swaps before the financial crisis. The founder and president of family office Paulson & Co. has been a major donor to Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, reportedly advising him on the idea of building a U.S. sovereign wealth fund.

The 68-year-old investor believes the economy could quickly tip into a recession as well if the specific plan to tax unrealized gains were to be implemented.

“If the Biden-Harris team does come in, and they were to implement what’s on their platform, which is a tax on unrealized gain, that’s going to cause massive selling of homes, of stocks, of companies, of art and that could … put us immediately into a recession, so hopefully that if they are elected, they won’t pursue that,” he said.

Some Wall Street economists and strategists do believe raising the corporate tax rate from the 21% where Trump lowered them could hit S&P 500 company earnings and weigh on share prices, but none from the major firms have said it would cause a pullback to the magnitude that Paulson is describing.

There is also some concern that Trump’s economic plans would not be as market-friendly as Paulson believes with proposed tariffs reigniting some inflation and more tax cuts expanding the budget deficit.

Paulson, who Trump has reportedly talked about as Treasury secretary in a second administration, said in the CNBC interview he does not believe that tariffs would be inflationary if targeted correctly. The investor also said the lower taxes would spark economic gains that help raise revenues and close the deficit gap.

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Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: HIMS, TEM, FANG

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Anthropic closes in on $3.5 billion funding round

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Dario Amodei, Anthropic CEO, speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box outside the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 21st, 2025.

Gerry Miller | CNBC

Anthropic is in talks to raise a $3.5 billion funding round, significantly more than the amount previously expected, CNBC has confirmed.

The round would roughly triple the artificial intelligence startup’s valuation to $61.5 billion, according to two sources familiar with the deal, who asked not to be named because the details aren’t public. Lightspeed Ventures is leading the funding, with participation from General Catalyst and others, the sources said.

The financing, which was first reported by the Wall Street Journal, signals continued investor demand for top-tier AI companies, even in the face of potential disruption from China’s DeepSeek. Anthropic is backed by Amazon and Google, and had initially set out to raise $2 billion, according to a source.

Anthropic declined to comment.

The company’s last private market valuation was $18 billion. Amazon has poured $8 billion into the startup.

Anthropic was founded by early OpenAI employees and is the creator of the popular chatbot Claude. Earlier Monday, Anthropic released what it says is it’s “most intelligent AI model yet. Its so-called hybrid model combines an ability to reason — or stopping to think about complex answers — with a traditional model that spits out answers in real time.

WATCH: Anthropic unveils newest AI model

Amazon-backed Anthropic unveils newest AI-model

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Jamie Dimon calls U.S. government ‘inefficient,’ touts Elon Musk’s DOGE effort

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Watch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Monday said the U.S. government is inefficient and in need of work as the Trump administration terminates thousands of federal employees and works to dismantle agencies including the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Dimon was asked by CNBC’s Leslie Picker whether he supported efforts by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. He declined to give what he called a “binary” response, but made comments that supported the overall effort.

“The government is inefficient, not very competent, and needs a lot of work,” Dimon told Picker. “It’s not just waste and fraud, its outcomes.”

The Trump administration’s effort to rein in spending and scrutinize federal agencies “needs to be done,” Dimon added.

“Why are we spending the money on these things? Are we getting what we deserve? What should we change?” Dimon said. “It’s not just about the deficit, its about building the right policies and procedures and the government we deserve.”

Dimon said if DOGE overreaches with its cost-cutting efforts or engages in activity that’s not legal, “the courts will stop it.”

“I’m hoping it’s quite successful,” he said.

In the wide-ranging interview, Dimon also addressed his company’s push to have most workers in office five days a week, as well as his views on the Ukraine conflict, tariffs and the U.S. consumer.

Watch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon

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