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Iran war may ‘chill’ the frozen job market: economist

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4 months ago

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Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The labor market is currently in a frozen state, characterized by low hiring and turnover — and economists said the war in Iran could exacerbate the problem.

“It will chill the labor market even more,” Nicholas Bloom, an economics professor at Stanford University, said last week during a Harvard Kennedy School webinar on the war’s economic consequences.

If you have a job right now, “don’t leave it,” because things will get harder, Bloom said.

Job market hit by ‘superhero ice-blast’

A jobseeker fills out a form during a job fair hosted by Statue City Cruises at Liberty Landing Marina in Jersey City, New Jersey, on March 17, 2026. The US Department of Labor is scheduled to release initial jobless claims figures on March 19.

Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The job market had already been on shaky footing before the U.S. and Israel started bombing Iran on Feb. 28, economists said.

Employers are hiring at their lowest rates since 2013, outside of the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is through January.

Meanwhile, employers are laying off workers at a historically low rate.

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Workers are also quitting their jobs at the lowest sustained rates in about a decade. Quits are a barometer of how confident workers are in their ability to find a new job, since most workers who quit do so for another role, economists said.

The so-called “low-hire, low-fire” job market creates few opportunities for job seekers or new entrants to the labor market like recent graduates.

People who want to move jobs because they want more pay, want to change locations or don’t like their boss, for example, “are finding themselves trapped,” Bloom told CNBC in an e-mail.

“It’s almost as if the entire economy got hit by some superhero ice-blast, with all hiring and firing slowed down,” he wrote.

Uncertainty chills the market

TOPSHOT – Smoke rises from the direction of an energy installation in the Gulf emirate of Fujairah on March 14, 2026.

AFP via Getty Images

The deep freeze is largely due to uncertainty among employers, economists said.

Bloom said it’s akin to holding off on buying a new car if you’re unsure whether you’ll need to drive to the office or work remotely for a new job.

These question marks lead people to put off making decisions, such as around hiring and investing, he said.

“Uncertainty slows hiring as firms don’t want to make an expensive mistake,” Bloom wrote. “It’s costly to hire somebody and if you then discover, say, demand is lower than you expected [it’s] hard to reverse. So when you are uncertain you pause.”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell talks inflation and labor market after leaving rates unchanged

The war in Iran has injected additional uncertainty around energy prices, and whether that energy shock will tilt the global economy into a downturn, experts said.

Businesses also don’t know how long energy prices will remain relatively high or, for those that pay hefty transportation costs, how long those prices will eat into their bottom lines, said Cory Stahle, an economist at job site Indeed.

Heading into the year, employers had already faced uncertainty around a number of different policies, experts said.

In 2025, for example, President Donald Trump upended global trade with a barrage of one-again-off-again tariffs. Economists said the added cost of tariffs and the rapidly changing trade policies left employers unsure how their businesses would be impacted financially.

Interest rates have also remained relatively high, raising the cost of borrowing for businesses, while immigration policy is impacting the job market by reducing the supply of available workers, economists said.

“Right now, the labor market is being hit from multiple angles,” Stahle said. “As a business owner, I may be saying, ‘I don’t want to go out and hire right now if this [war] is going to turn into a global recession in the next couple months.'”

Employers have also been clinging to their workers due to scarring during the pandemic era, experts said.

Workers were hard to find during the so-called great resignation in 2021 and 2022, a period with a historically high rate of job hopping.

“As a result, many companies do not want to get caught short workers and have held on to staff,” Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, wrote of that “job hugging” dynamic in a Sept. 10 market commentary. “And of course, uncertainty over tariff effects and economic growth has made many companies hesitant to expand their current workforce.”

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Personal Finance

$20,000 Caution Bond Requirement for US Visa Applications imposed on 50 Countries

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6 days ago

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August 8, 2026

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The United States Department of State has officially implemented a revised visa policy introducing a mandatory posting requirement for caution payments of up to $20,000 on select foreign travel applications. Under the updated regulatory framework, consular officials are authorized to require temporary nonimmigrant visa applicants from targeted foreign countries to post a refundable financial bond of $20,000 as a condition for visa issuance. The policy mechanism is designed to address diplomatic concerns regarding high overstay rates among temporary visitor, business, and educational visa categories.

The caution bond pilot program applies selectively to foreign nationals from designated countries whose diplomatic entities record historical visa overstay rates exceeding established federal thresholds. Under administrative guidelines published by the State Department, the full financial deposit is posted directly to a dedicated federal escrow account prior to final visa issuance. The entire caution payment is automatically refunded to the applicant upon verified proof of timely departure from the United States in strict compliance with the authorized duration of stay. Conversely, failure to depart within the legal timeframe results in full forfeiture of the posted financial bond to the United States government.

Diplomatic representatives and travel policy experts have expressed varying perspectives regarding the operational implementation of the caution bond system. Administration officials emphasize that the measure serves as an effective, market-based incentive to enforce international travel compliance and preserve domestic immigration security standards. However, international trade organizations and foreign diplomatic missions have raised concerns regarding the financial burden imposed on legitimate business travelers, foreign students, and commercial partners from developing nations.

The United States finalized the rule to make the temporary visa bond program permanent, taking effect on August 3, 2026. The updated permanent regulation replaces the prior 12-month pilot, eliminates the lowest $5,000 tier, and raises the maximum required bond amount to $20,000 for specific B-1/B-2 business and tourist visa applicants.

Here is the list of the 50 countries on the list as o August 3, 2026

African Nations (31 Countries)

  • Algeria
  • Angola
  • Benin
  • Botswana
  • Burundi
  • Cabo Verde (Cape Verde)
  • Central African Republic
  • Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast)
  • Djibouti
  • Ethiopia
  • Gabon
  • The Gambia
  • Ghana
  • Guinea
  • Guinea-Bissau
  • Lesotho
  • Malawi
  • Mauritania
  • Mauritius
  • Mozambique
  • Namibia
  • Nigeria
  • São Tomé and Príncipe
  • Senegal
  • Seychelles
  • Tanzania
  • Togo
  • Tunisia
  • Uganda
  • Zambia
  • Zimbabwe

Asian & Eastern European Nations (11 Countries)

  • Bangladesh
  • Bhutan
  • Cambodia
  • Georgia
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Mongolia
  • Nepal
  • Papua New Guinea
  • Tajikistan
  • Turkmenistan
  • Uzbekistan

Caribbean & Latin American Nations (5 Countries)

  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Cuba
  • Dominica
  • Grenada
  • Venezuela

Oceanian Nations (3 Countries)

  • Fiji
  • Tonga
  • Vanuatu

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Personal Finance

Next-Generation Retirement Planning: Managing Longevity Risk and Variable Income Streams

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1 week ago

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August 7, 2026

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Retirement planning strategies are evolving in 2026 to address increased life expectancies, shifting dynamic market conditions, and the transition away from traditional defined-benefit pensions. Individual investors and financial advisors are abandoning rigid retirement models in favor of flexible, multi-asset strategies designed to mitigate longevity risk and preserve purchasing power over multi-decade retirement horizons.

Mitigating Longevity Risk with Dynamic Asset Allocation
As average life expectancies extend past eighty-five years, one of the primary financial risks facing retirees is outliving their accumulated wealth. Traditional fixed income allocations—such as the standard 60/40 equity-to-bond portfolio—are being reevaluated to ensure portfolios generate sufficient capital growth alongside reliable income.

Financial planners recommend maintaining a meaningful equity allocation throughout retirement to offset long-term inflation erosion. High-dividend equity funds, global real estate investment trusts (REITs), and inflation-indexed Treasuries are combined to create diversified portfolios that deliver both growth and income stability.

The Transition to Dynamic Withdrawal Strategies
The classic “4% safe withdrawal rule” is increasingly replaced by dynamic withdrawal strategies that adapt annually based on market performance. Under a dynamic withdrawal framework, retirees adjust their annual distribution rates within pre-set caps and floors:
– Market Upside: During strong market returns, retirees can increase discretionary spending or fund family legacy gifts.
– Market Downturns: During market pullbacks, spending distributions are temporarily reduced to prevent sequence-of-returns risk and preserve core investment principal.

Guaranteed Lifetime Income Options and Deferred Annuities
To establish a guaranteed baseline for essential living expenses, individuals are incorporating modern fixed-indexed and deferred longevity annuities into their broader retirement architectures. Modern annuity structures offer competitive return caps, transparent fee schedules, and inflation-adjustment options.

By funding essential expenses—such as housing, healthcare, and insurance—with guaranteed income streams from Social Security, pensions, and annuities, retirees can manage discretionary investment portfolios with greater flexibility and lower emotional stress during market volatility.

Actionable Steps for Future Retirees
1. Calculate Baseline Retirement Expenses: Determine fixed living costs and map guaranteed income sources to cover essential expenditures.
2. Adopt Flexible Withdrawal Rules: Implement dynamic spending rules to protect investment principal against market downturns.
3. Incorporate Inflation-Protected Assets: Maintain exposure to dividend-growing equities and inflation-indexed bonds to safeguard long-term purchasing power.

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Personal Finance

Building Generational Wealth: Family Governance, Estate Tax Optimization, and Asset Protection

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2 weeks ago

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August 1, 2026

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As the largest intergenerational transfer of wealth in history accelerates, high-net-worth families, entrepreneurs, and individual investors are placing heightened emphasis on comprehensive estate planning, family governance, and asset protection. Preserving capital across generations requires a balanced approach combining tax-efficient legal structures with open family communication and financial literacy education.

Optimizing Estate Tax Exemptions and Trust Structures
With potential modifications to federal estate tax exemption thresholds on the horizon, proactive estate planning is essential for high-net-worth households. Estate planning attorneys and wealth advisors are establishing multi-generational trust structures to transfer wealth efficiently while minimizing estate and gift tax exposure.

Popular structural strategies include:
– Irrevocable Life Insurance Trusts (ILITs): Utilizing life insurance proceeds to provide liquidity for estate tax obligations without expanding the taxable estate.
– Grantor Retained Annuity Trusts (GRATs): Transferring rapidly appreciating assets to beneficiaries with minimal gift tax consequences.
– Dynasty Trusts: Preserving wealth across multiple generations while providing long-term asset protection from creditor claims and legal liabilities.

Establishing Family Governance and Financial Education
Legal and financial structures alone cannot guarantee long-term wealth preservation without effective family governance. Financial advisors report that a significant percentage of multi-generational wealth dissipation stems from lack of communication and inadequate financial preparation among heir generations.

Families are establishing formal family governance frameworks, including periodic family meetings, written mission statements, and structured philanthropic foundations. Involving younger family members in charitable grant-making and investment discussions fosters financial stewardship and prepares heirs to manage family assets responsibly.

Digital Asset Custody and Legacy Planning
In today’s modern economy, estate planning must extend beyond physical real estate and traditional brokerage accounts to encompass digital assets. Comprehensive estate plans now include detailed inventories and legal access protocols for corporate domain names, intellectual property, digital media rights, and cryptocurrency holdings.

Fiduciaries and estate executors should be provided with secure, encrypted access mechanisms and clear legal authority to manage and transfer digital holdings in accordance with the owner’s estate directions.

Practical Steps for Legacy Planning
1. Review and Update Estate Documents: Ensure wills, revocable trusts, and power-of-attorney designations accurately reflect current family structures.
2. Establish Structured Trusts: Utilize irrevocable trusts to protect assets from creditors and minimize future estate tax liabilities.
3. Create a Digital Estate Inventory: Document access protocols and legal permissions for all online accounts, intellectual property, and digital assets.

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