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Job gains expected again in March. What to look for in Friday’s report

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A person works on a Bowlus recreational vehicle at Bowlus’ factory in Oxnard, California, Feb. 23, 2024.

Timothy Aeppel | Reuters

The March nonfarm payrolls count likely will indicate hiring continuing at a solid pace, though some weakening foundations of the labor market could take greater focus when the Labor Department releases its key report Friday morning.

Job growth is expected to come in at 200,000 for the period, according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast. If that’s correct, it will mark a slowdown from February’s initially reported 275,000 but is still a strong pace by historical terms.

Yet a funny thing has been happening with the jobs reports recently: Initially strong numbers have tended to be lowered in subsequent estimates, raising questions about whether the jobs situation is as positive as it looks.

That will be just one of several key areas in focus when the report is released at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Strong, but how strong?

The trend “makes me wonder about the credibility of the first number,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade Americas. “So I’ll be looking for the revisions from the prior month to see if they’re going to be knocked down, and most likely they will be. That’s why if you get a big number, take it with a grain of salt.”

There is some anticipation on Wall Street of an upside surprise: Goldman Sachs raised its initial forecast to 240,000, an increase of 25,000, following strong private payroll data from ADP showing a gain of 184,000 on the month, and other indicators.

Drivers of growth

Inflation signals

Federal Reserve officials will watch all those factors for signs of inflation pressures. Stocks have been under pressure this week as investors worry about the direction of monetary policy.

Average hourly earnings are projected to have increased 0.3% in March, which would be a jump from 0.1% in February, though the estimate for the annual gain is 4.1%, or 0.2 percentage point less.

If the consensus calls are correct, it’s unlikely to move the needle much for the Fed, which is expected to begin cutting interest rates gradually starting in June, according to futures market pricing tracked by the CME Group.

“Unless there is a wildly positive or outright tragic employment report, they’re going to stay on course,” North said. “They’ve been really clear recently pushing back on the market, saying we’re in no big hurry, inflation is not down to 2%.”

North said he expects the Fed to wait until July before it starts cutting rates — contrary to current market expectations.

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Economics

A protest against America’s TikTok ban is mired in contradiction

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AS A SHUTDOWN looms, TikTok in America has the air of the last day of school. The Brits are saying goodbye to the Americans. Australians are waiting in the wings to replace banished American influencers. And American users are bidding farewell to their fictional Chinese spies—a joke referencing the American government’s accusation that China is using the app (which is owned by ByteDance, a Chinese tech giant) to surveil American citizens.

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Economics

Home insurance costs soar as climate events surge, Treasury Dept. says

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Firefighters battle flames during the Eaton Fire in Pasadena, California, U.S., Jan. 7, 2025.

Mario Anzuoni | Reuters

Climate-related natural disasters are driving up insurance costs for homeowners in the most-affected regions, according to a Treasury Department report released Thursday.

In a voluminous study covering 2018-22 and including some data beyond that, the department found that there were 84 disasters costing $1 billion or more, excluding floods, and that they caused a combined $609 billion in damages. Floods are not covered under homeowner policies.

During the period, costs for policies across all categories rose 8.7% faster than the rate of inflation. However, the burden went largely to those living in areas most hit by climate-related events.

For consumers living in the 20% of zip codes with the highest expected annual losses, premiums averaged $2,321, or 82% more than those living in the 20% of lowest-risk zip codes.

“Homeowners insurance is becoming more costly and less accessible for consumers as the costs of climate-related events pose growing challenges to both homeowners and insurers alike,” said Nellie Liang, undersecretary of the Treasury for domestic finance.

The report comes as rescue workers continue to battle raging wildfires in the Los Angeles area. At least 25 people have been killed and 180,000 homeowners have been displaced.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the costs from the fires are still unknown, but noted that the report reflected an ongoing serious problem. During the period studied, there was nearly double the annual total of disasters declared for climate-related events as in the period of 1960-2010 combined.

“Moreover, this [wildfire disaster] does not stand alone as evidence of this impact, with other climate-related events leading to challenges for Americans in finding affordable insurance coverage – from severe storms in the Great Plans to hurricanes in the Southeast,” Yellen said in a statement. “This report identifies alarming trends of rising costs of insurance, all of which threaten the long-term prosperity of American families.”

Both homeowners and insurers in the most-affected areas were paying in other ways as well.

Nonrenewal rates in the highest-risk areas were about 80% higher than those in less-risky areas, while insurers paid average claims of $24,000 in higher-risk areas compared to $19,000 in lowest-risk regions.

In the Southeast, which includes states such as Florida and Louisiana that frequently are slammed by hurricanes, the claim frequency was 20% higher than the national average.

In the Southwest, which includes California, wildfires tore through 3.3 million acres during the time period, with five events causing more than $100 million in damages. The average loss claim was nearly $27,000, or nearly 50% higher than the national average. Nonrenewal rates for insurance were 23.5% higher than the national average.

The Treasury Department released its findings with just three days left in the current administration. Treasury officials said they hope the administration under President-elect Donald Trump uses the report as a springboard for action.

“We certainly are hopeful that our successors stay focused on this issue and continue to produce important research on this issue and think about important and creative ways to address it,” an official said.

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Economics

How bad will the smoke be for Angelenos’ health?

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Where there is fire, there is smoke. For the people of Los Angeles, this will add to the misery. Some are already suffering from burning throats and irritated eyes. Many miles from the wildfires, people are wearing masks; shops are running out. The fires may also cause long-term problems.

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