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Job growth zoomed in March as payrolls jumped by 303,000 and unemployment dropped to 3.8%

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Job growth totaled 303,000 in March, topping expectations, as unemployment rate edged lower to 3.8%

Job creation in March easily topped expectations in a sign of continued acceleration for what has been a bustling and resilient labor market.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 303,000 for the month, well above the Dow Jones estimate for a rise of 200,000 and higher than the downwardly revised 270,000 gain in February, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

The unemployment rate edged lower to 3.8%, as expected, even though the labor force participation rate moved higher to 62.7%, a gain of 0.2 percentage point from February. A broader measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons held steady at 7.3%.

In the key average hourly earnings measure, wages rose 0.3% for the month and 4.1% from a year ago, both in line with Wall Street estimates.

Growth came from many of the usual sectors that have powered gains in recent months. Health care led with 72,000, followed by government (71,000), leisure and hospitality (49,000), and construction (39,000). Retail trade contributed 18,000 while the “other services” category added 16,000.

The February revision was just 5,000 lower while the January revision brought that total up by 27,000 to 256,000, still well below the initial estimate of 353,000.

“This is another really strong report,” said Lauren Goodwin, economist and chief market strategist at New York Life Investments. “This report and the February report showed some broadening in terms of job creation, which is a very good sign.”

Despite the move lower in the broader unemployment level, the rate for Black people surged to 6.4%, a gain of 0.8 percentage point, tying the highest level since August 2022. Rates for Asians and Hispanics both fell sharply to 2.5% and 4.5%, respectively.

A string of positive gains has kept unemployment below 4% since January 2022, though there have been some signs of cracks. For instance the level of household employment had grown only modestly over the past year, while temporary employment has declined sharply.

However, the household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, posted an even more robust gain in March, up 498,000, more than absorbing the 469,000 increase in the civilian labor force level.

Gains tilted heavily to part-time workers in the household survey. Full-time workers fell by 6,000, while part-timers increased by 691,000. Multiple job holders rose by 217,000, to 5.2% of the total employment level.

Markets have been keeping close watch over the employment data particularly as the Federal Reserve weighs its next moves on monetary policy. Stocks have tumbled this week amid concerns that a strong labor market and resilient economy could keep the central bank on hold for longer than expected.

Stock market futures rose following the report while Treasury yields also added to gains.

The Fed is looking to guide inflation back down to 2% annually, a goal that has proven elusive even as the rate of price gains has decelerated from its peak in mid-2022. Most measures have inflation running above 3%, though the Fed’s preferred gauge is below that level.

Market pricing is pointing toward the first interest rate cut coming in June, though several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, this week indicated they prefer to take a cautious data-dependent approach. The BLS on Wednesday is scheduled to release its consumer price index reading for March.

Correction: The unemployment rate edged lower to 3.8%. An earlier version misstated the move.

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AS A SHUTDOWN looms, TikTok in America has the air of the last day of school. The Brits are saying goodbye to the Americans. Australians are waiting in the wings to replace banished American influencers. And American users are bidding farewell to their fictional Chinese spies—a joke referencing the American government’s accusation that China is using the app (which is owned by ByteDance, a Chinese tech giant) to surveil American citizens.

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Economics

Home insurance costs soar as climate events surge, Treasury Dept. says

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Firefighters battle flames during the Eaton Fire in Pasadena, California, U.S., Jan. 7, 2025.

Mario Anzuoni | Reuters

Climate-related natural disasters are driving up insurance costs for homeowners in the most-affected regions, according to a Treasury Department report released Thursday.

In a voluminous study covering 2018-22 and including some data beyond that, the department found that there were 84 disasters costing $1 billion or more, excluding floods, and that they caused a combined $609 billion in damages. Floods are not covered under homeowner policies.

During the period, costs for policies across all categories rose 8.7% faster than the rate of inflation. However, the burden went largely to those living in areas most hit by climate-related events.

For consumers living in the 20% of zip codes with the highest expected annual losses, premiums averaged $2,321, or 82% more than those living in the 20% of lowest-risk zip codes.

“Homeowners insurance is becoming more costly and less accessible for consumers as the costs of climate-related events pose growing challenges to both homeowners and insurers alike,” said Nellie Liang, undersecretary of the Treasury for domestic finance.

The report comes as rescue workers continue to battle raging wildfires in the Los Angeles area. At least 25 people have been killed and 180,000 homeowners have been displaced.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the costs from the fires are still unknown, but noted that the report reflected an ongoing serious problem. During the period studied, there was nearly double the annual total of disasters declared for climate-related events as in the period of 1960-2010 combined.

“Moreover, this [wildfire disaster] does not stand alone as evidence of this impact, with other climate-related events leading to challenges for Americans in finding affordable insurance coverage – from severe storms in the Great Plans to hurricanes in the Southeast,” Yellen said in a statement. “This report identifies alarming trends of rising costs of insurance, all of which threaten the long-term prosperity of American families.”

Both homeowners and insurers in the most-affected areas were paying in other ways as well.

Nonrenewal rates in the highest-risk areas were about 80% higher than those in less-risky areas, while insurers paid average claims of $24,000 in higher-risk areas compared to $19,000 in lowest-risk regions.

In the Southeast, which includes states such as Florida and Louisiana that frequently are slammed by hurricanes, the claim frequency was 20% higher than the national average.

In the Southwest, which includes California, wildfires tore through 3.3 million acres during the time period, with five events causing more than $100 million in damages. The average loss claim was nearly $27,000, or nearly 50% higher than the national average. Nonrenewal rates for insurance were 23.5% higher than the national average.

The Treasury Department released its findings with just three days left in the current administration. Treasury officials said they hope the administration under President-elect Donald Trump uses the report as a springboard for action.

“We certainly are hopeful that our successors stay focused on this issue and continue to produce important research on this issue and think about important and creative ways to address it,” an official said.

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