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Jobless rates fall in July for Asian Americans, bucking overall trend

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A sign for a health-care career fair at Cape Fear Community College in Wilmington, North Carolina, on Feb. 28, 2023.

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The unemployment rate fell for Asian Americans from June to July, bucking a broader trend, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The unemployment rate among Asian Americans dipped to 3.7% in July from 4.1% a month earlier. The result went against the overall unemployment rate, which rose to 4.3% last month from 4.1% in June.

Meanwhile, the jobless rate for white Americans rose to 3.8% in July, up from 3.5% a month earlier. For Hispanic Americans, this number climbed to 5.3% last month, compared to the rate of 4.9% in June. The jobless rate held steady at 6.3% for Black workers.

When taking gender into account, the unemployment rate declined for Black women, who saw their jobless rate tick down to 5.5% in July, compared to 5.7% a month earlier. For Black men, this number jumped to 6.6% last month, up from 6.1% in June.

July’s jobless rates rose to 3.5% from 3.2% for white men, while increasing to 3.4% last month from 3.1% for white women. The rate similarly increased to 4.4% last month from 4.2% for Hispanic males, and it jumped to 5.4% in July from 4.5% for Hispanic female workers.

Jobless rates for Asian workers based on gender were not readily available.

But Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, stressed that these numbers include a lot of volatility — especially for the smaller population groups — and cautioned against reading too much into the trends.

In fact, Gould emphasized that while the overall unemployment rate rose last month, the labor market was still strong for the prime-age employment group, or for workers ages 25 to 54. The employment rate for this age cohort was 80.9% in July, the economist said. Gould added that female workers in this group continue to recover.

“More people came back into the labor force. Many of them did not find jobs, and that’s why the unemployment rate ticked up,” Gould told CNBC in an interview. “But when you look at the flip side, things are definitely stronger.”

Last month, the overall labor force participation rate increased to 62.7% in July, up from 62.6% in the prior month. This measure represents the percentage of the population that is either currently employed or actively seeking employment.

For white workers, the labor force participation rate ticked higher to 62.3% last month, compared to June’s rate of 62.2%. The rate rose to 63.2% in July, versus the previous month’s level of 62.7% for Black Americans.

For Hispanic workers, the labor force participation rate came in at 67.3% in July, slightly lower than the prior month’s reading of 67.5%. Meanwhile, this rate among Asians was 65.7% last month, versus 65.9% in June.

— CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed to this report.

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Economics

Consumer sentiment worsens as inflation fears grow, University of Michigan survey shows

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A shopper pays with a credit card at the farmer’s market in San Francisco, California, US, on Thursday, March 27, 2025. 

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The deterioration in consumer sentiment was even worse than anticipated in March as worries over inflation intensified, according to a University of Michigan survey released Friday.

The final version of the university’s closely watched Survey of Consumers showed a reading of 57.0 for the month, down 11.9% from February and 28.2% from a year ago. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting 57.9, which was the mid-month level.

It was the third consecutive decrease and stretched across party lines and income groups, survey director Joanne Hsu said.

“Consumers continue to worry about the potential for pain amid ongoing economic policy developments,” she said.

In addition to worries about the current state of affairs, the survey’s index of consumer expectations tumbled to 52.6, down 17.8% from a month ago and 32% for the same period in 2024.

Inflation fears drove much of the downturn. Respondents expect inflation a year from now to run at a 5% rate, up 0.1 percentage point from the mid-month reading and a 0.7 percentage point acceleration from February. At the five-year horizon, the outlook now is for 4.1%, the first time the survey has had a reading above 4% since February 1993.

Economists worry that President Donald Trump’s tariff plans will spur more inflation, possibly curtailing the Federal Reserve from further interest rate cuts.

The report came the same day that the Commerce Department said the core inflation rate increased to 2.8% in February, after a 0.4% monthly gain that was the biggest move since January 2024.

The latest results also reflect worries over the labor market, with the level of consumers expecting the unemployment rate to rise at the highest level since 2009.

Stocks took a hit after the university’s survey was released, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average trading more than 500 points lower.

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PCE inflation February 2025:

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Core inflation in February hits 2.8%, hotter than expected; spending increases 0.4%

The Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure rose more than expected in February while consumer spending also posted a smaller than projected increase, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index showed a 0.4% increase for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.8%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective numbers of 0.3% and and 2.7%.

Core inflation excludes volatile food and energy prices and is generally considered a better indicator of long-term inflation trends.

In the all-items measure, the price index rose 0.3% on the month and 2.5% from a year ago, both in line with forecasts.

At the same time, the Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed that consumer spending accelerated 0.4% for the month, below the 0.5% forecast. That came as personal income posted a 0.8% rise, against the estimate for 0.4%.

Stock market futures moved lower following the release as did Treasury yields.

Federal Reserve officials focus on the PCE inflation reading as they consider it a broader measure that also adjusts for changes in consumer behavior and places less of an emphasis on housing than the Labor Department’s consumer price index. Shelter costs have been one of the stickier elements of inflation and rose 0.3% in the PCE measure.

“It looks like a ‘wait-and-see’ Fed still has more waiting to do,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “Today’s higher-than-expected inflation reading wasn’t exceptionally hot, but it isn’t going to speed up the Fed’s timeline for cutting interest rates, especially given the uncertainty surrounding tariffs.”

Good prices increased 0.2%, led by recreational goods and vehicles, which increased 0.5%. Gasoline offset some of the increase, with the category falling by 0.8%. Services prices were up 0.4%.

The report comes with markets on edge that President Donald Trump’s tariff intentions will aggravate inflation at a time when the data was making slow but steady progress back to the Fed’s 2% goal.

After cutting rates a full percentage point in 2024, the central bank has been on hold this year, with officials of late expressing concern over the impact the import duties will have on prices. Economists tends to consider tariffs as one-off events that don’t feed through to longer-lasting inflation pressures, but the encompassing scope of Trump’s tariffs and the potential for an aggressive global trade war are changing the stakes.

Correction: Consumer spending increased 0.4% in February. An earlier headline misstated the number.

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