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Jobs report August 2024:

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August payrolls grew by a less-than-expected 142,000, but unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%

The U.S. economy created slightly fewer jobs than expected in August, reflecting a slowing labor market while also clearing the way for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates later this month.

Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 142,000 during the month, up from 89,000 in July and below the 161,000 consensus forecast from Dow Jones, according to a report Friday from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

At the same time, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, as expected.

The labor force expanded by 120,000 for the month, helping push the jobless level down by 0.1 percentage point, though the labor force participation rate held at 62.7%. An alternative measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons edged up to 7.9%, its highest reading since October 2021.

The household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate and is often more volatile than the survey of establishments, showed employment growth of 168,000.The balance, though, tilted towards part-time employment, which increased by 527,000, while full-time fell by 438,000.

Markets showed little initial reaction to the data, with stock futures holding negative and Treasury yields also lower.

While the August numbers were close to expectations, the previous two months saw substantial downward revisions. The BLS cut July’s total by 25,000, while June fell to 118,000, a downward revision of 61,000.

“I don’t like this a whole lot. It’s not disaster, but it’s below expectations on the headline, and what really bothers me is the revisions,” said Dan North, senior economist for North America at Allianz Trade. “This is certainly going the wrong way.”

From a sector standpoint, construction led with 34,000 additional jobs. Other substantial gainers included health care, with 31,000, and social assistance, which saw growth of 13,000. Manufacturing lost 24,000 on the month.

On wages, average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% on the month and 3.8% from a year ago, both higher than the respective estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%. Hours worked edged higher to 34.3.

The report comes with markets on edge over the next step for the Fed, which has been on hold with rates since July 2023 after having enacted a series of sharp increases to bring down inflation.

Heading into the release, markets had been pricing in a 100% probability that the Fed will start cutting rates when it meets Sept. 17-18. The only question was how much.

Following the payrolls release, futures market pricing tilted towards a half percentage point cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

“For the Fed, the decision comes down to deciding which is the bigger risk: reigniting inflation pressures if they cut by 50 [basis points] or threatening recession if they only cut by 25 [basis points],” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. “On balance, with inflation pressures subdued, there is no reason for the Fed not to err on the side of caution and frontload rate cuts.”

The recent narrative for the economic data has indicated continuing growth but a slowdown for the labor market. Payrolls processing firm ADP reported Thursday that private companies added just 99,000 jobs in August, while outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that layoffs surged in August and hiring had hit its slowest year-to-date pace going back to at least 2005.

The BLS report indicated that the private sector added 118,000 jobs for the month, up from 74,000 in July. Government jobs increased by 24,000.

Most Fed officials have indicated that they also see rates coming down. In his pivotal annual speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming conclave, Chair Jerome Powell proclaimed that “the time has come” to adjust policy, though he provided no specifics for what that meant.

In a speech Friday morning, New York Fed President John Williams endorsed rate cuts.

“With the economy now in equipoise and inflation on a path to 2 percent, it is now appropriate to dial down the degree of restrictiveness in the stance of policy by reducing the target range for the federal funds rate,” Williams said in remarks before the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

Economics

China targets U.S. services and other areas after decrying ‘meaningless’ tariff hikes on goods

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Dilara Irem Sancar | Anadolu | Getty Images

China last week announced it was done retaliating against U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, saying any further increases by the U.S. would be a “joke,” and Beijing would “ignore” them.

Instead of continuing to focus on tariffing goods, however, China has chosen to resort to other measures, including steps targeting the American services sector.

Trump has jacked up U.S. levies on select goods from China by up to 245% after several rounds of tit-for-tat measures with Beijing in recent weeks. Before calling it a “meaningless numbers game,” China last week imposed additional duties on imports from the U.S. of up to 125%.

While the Trump administration has largely focused on pressing ahead on his tariff plans, Beijing has rolled out a series of non-tariff restrictive measures including widening export controls of rare-earth minerals and opening antitrust probes into American companies, such as pharmaceutical giant DuPont and IT major Google.

Before the latest escalation, in February Beijing had put dozens of U.S. businesses on a so-called “unreliable entity” list, which would restrict or ban firms from trading with or investing in China. American firms such as PVH, the parent company of Tommy Hilfiger, and Illumina, a gene-sequencing equipment provider, were among those added to the list.

Its tightening of exports of critical mineral elements will require Chinese companies to secure special licenses for exporting these resources, effectively restricting U.S. access to the key minerals needed for semiconductors, missile-defense systems and solar cells.

In its latest move on Tuesday, Beijing went after Boeing — America’s largest exporter — by ordering Chinese airlines not to take any further deliveries for its jets and requested carriers to halt any purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from U.S. companies, according to Bloomberg.

Having deliveries to China cut off will add to the cash-strapped plane maker’s troubles, as it struggles with a lingering quality-control crisis.

In another sign of growing hostilities, Chinese police issued notices for apprehending three people they claimed to have engaged in cyberattacks against China on behalf of the U.S. National Security Agency.

Chinese state media, which published the notice, urged domestic users and companies to avoid using American technology and replace them with domestic alternatives.

“Beijing is clearly signaling to Washington that two can play in this retaliation game and that it has many levers to pull, all creating different levels of pain for U.S. companies,” said Wendy Cutler, vice president at Asia Society Policy Institute.

“With high tariffs and other restrictions in place, the decoupling of the two economies is at full steam,” Cutler said.

Targeting trade in services

China is seen by some as seeking to broaden the trade war to encompass services trade — which covers travel, legal, consulting and financial services — where the U.S. has been running a significant surplus with China for years.

China Beige Book CEO: U.S. needs to articulate what they want from China

Earlier this month, a social media account affiliated with Chinese state media Xinhua News Agency, suggested Beijing could impose curbs on U.S. legal consultancy firms and consider a probe into U.S. companies’ China operations for the huge “monopoly benefits” they have gained from intellectual-property rights.

China’s imports of U.S. services surged more than 10-fold to $55 billion in 2024 over the past two decades, according to Nomura estimates, driving U.S. services trade surplus with China to $32 billion last year.

Last week, China said it would reduce imports of U.S. films and warned its citizens against traveling or studying in the U.S., in a sign of Beijing’s intent to put pressure on the U.S. entertainment, tourism and education sectors.

“These measures target high-visibility sectors — aviation, media, and education — that resonate politically in the U.S.,” said Jing Qian, managing director at Center for China Analysis.

While they might be low on actual dollar impact given the smaller scale of these sectors, “reputational effects — such as fewer Chinese students or more cautious Chinese employees — could ripple through academia and the tech talent ecosystem,” he added.

Nomura estimates $24 billion could be at stake if Beijing significantly step up restrictions on travel to the U.S.

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Travel dominated U.S. services exports to China, reflecting expenditure by millions of Chinese tourists in the U.S., according to Nomura. Within travel, education-related spending leads at 71%, it estimates, mostly coming from tuition and living expenses for the more than 270,000 Chinese students studying in the U.S.

Entertainment exports, encompassing films, music and television programs, accounted for just 6% of U.S. exports within this sector, the investment firm said, noting that Beijing’s latest move on film imports “carries more symbolic heft than economic bite.”

“We could see deeper decoupling — not only in supply chains, but in people-to-people ties, knowledge exchange, and regulatory frameworks. This may signal a shift from transactional tension to systemic divergence,” said Qian.

Can Beijing get more aggressive?

Analysts largely expect Beijing to continue deploying its arsenal of non-tariff policy tools in an effort to raise its leverage ahead of any potential negotiation with the Trump administration.

“From the Chinese government’s perspective, the U.S. companies’ operations in China are the biggest remaining target for inflicting pain on the U.S .side,” said Gabriel Wildau, managing director at risk advisory firm Teneo.

Apple, Tesla, pharmaceutical and medical device companies are among the businesses that could be targeted as Beijing presses ahead with non-tariff measures, including sanction, regulatory harassment and export controls, Wildau added.

Shoppers and staff are seen inside the Apple Store, with its sleek modern interior design and prominent Apple logo, in Chongqing, China, on Sept. 10, 2024.

Cheng Xin | Getty Images

While a deal may allow both sides to unwind some of the retaliatory measures, hopes for near-term talks between the two leaders are fading fast.

Chinese officials have repeatedly condemned the “unilateral tariffs” imposed by Trump as “bullying” and vowed to “fight to the end.” Still, Beijing has left the door open for negotiations but they must be on “an equal footing.”

On Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump is open to making a deal with China but Beijing needs to make the first move.

“In the end, only when a country experiences sufficient self-inflicted harm might it consider softening its stance and truly returning to the negotiation table,” said Jianwei Xu, economist at Natixis.

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Economics

Donald Trump’s approval rating is dropping

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EVEN WHEN Donald Trump does something well, he exaggerates. He won the popular vote last November for the first time in three tries, by a 1.5 point margin. “The mandate was massive,” he told Time. In fact it was the slimmest margin since 2000, but it was an improvement on Mr Trump’s two previous popular-vote losses, by 2.1 points in 2016 and 4.5 points in 2020. (He was elected in 2016 through the vagaries of the Electoral College.)

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Can Progressives learn to make progress again?

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In the political wilderness, Democrats are asking themselves how they lost their way

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