Connect with us

Economics

Jobs report November 2024:

Published

on

Job creation in November rebounded from a near-standstill the prior month as the effects of a significant labor strike and violent storms in the Southeast receded, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 for the month, compared to an upwardly revised 36,000 in October and the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 214,000.

The unemployment rate, however, edged higher to 4.2%, as expected. The unemployment rate rose as the labor force participation rate edged lower and the labor force itself declined. A broader measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons edged higher to 7.8%.

Job gains were focused in health care (54,000), leisure and hospitality (53,000) and government (33,000), sectors that have consistently led payroll growth for the past few years.

At the same time, retail trade saw a decline of 28,000 heading into the holiday season. With Thanksgiving coming later than usual this year, some stores may have held off hiring.

Worker pay continued to rise, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% from a month ago and 4% on a 12-month basis. Both numbers were 0.1 percentage point above expectations.

Stock market futures edged higher after the report while Treasury yields were lower.

The report comes with questions over the state of the labor market and how that will impact Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates.

Traders accelerated their bets on a rate cut following the payrolls release, with market-implied odds rising above 88% for a quarter percentage point reduction. when central bank policymakers make their next decision on Dec. 18.

Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the generally strong state of the economy affords him and his colleagues the ability to be patient when making interest rate decisions. Other officials have said they see additional interest rate cuts as being likely but subject to changes in the economic data.

While inflation is well off the boil from its 40-year high in mid-2022, recent months have shown prices drifting up. At the same time, the October jobs report and various other reports have pointed to a labor market that is still growing but slowing.

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

Economics

Producer price index November 2024

Published

on

A measure of wholesale prices rose more than expected in November as questions percolated over whether progress in bringing down inflation has slowed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.

The producer price index, or PPI, which measures what producers get for their products at the final-demand stage, increased 0.4% for the month, higher than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 0.2%. On an annual basis, PPI rose 3%, the biggest advance since February 2023.

However, excluding food and energy, core PPI increased 0.2%, meeting the forecast. Also, subtracting trade services left the PPI increase at just 0.1%. The year-over-year increase of 3.5% also was the most since February 2023.

In other economic news Thursday, the Labor Department reported that first-time claims for unemployment insurance totaled a seasonally adjusted 242,000 for the week ending Dec. 7, considerably higher than the 220,000 forecast and up 17,000 from the prior period.

On the inflation front, the news was mixed.

Final-demand goods prices leaped 0.7% on the month, the biggest move since February of this year. Some 80% of the move came from a 3.1% surge in food prices, according to the BLS.

Within the food category, chicken eggs soared 54.6%, joining an across-the-board acceleration in items such as dry vegetables, fresh fruits and poultry. Egg prices at the retail level swelled 8.2% on the month and were up 37.5% from a year ago, the BLS said in a separate report Wednesday on consumer prices.

Services costs rose 0.2%, pushed higher by a 0.8% increase in trade.

The PPI release comes a day after the BLS reported that the consumer price index, or CPI, a more widely cited inflation gauge, also nudged higher in November to 2.7% on a 12-month basis and 0.3% month over month.

Despite the seemingly stubborn state of inflation, markets overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to lower its key overnight borrowing rate next week. Futures markets traders are implying a near certainty to a quarter percentage point reduction when the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee concludes its meeting Wednesday.

Following the release, economists generally viewed the data this week as mostly benign, with underlying indicators still pointing towards enough disinflation to get the Fed back to its 2% target eventually.

The Fed uses the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, as its primary inflation gauge and forecasting tool. However, data from the CPI and PPI feed into that measure.

An Atlanta Fed tracker is putting November PCE at 2.6%, up 0.3 percentage point from October, and core PCE at 3%, up 0.2 percentage point. The Fed generally considers core a better long-run indicator. A few economists said the details in the report point to a smaller monthly rise in PCE inflation than they had previously expected.

“It appears that only an exogenous shock such as dramatic tariff policy shifts would be capable of derailing supply-side contributions toward inflation’s return to the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% average goal in the near term,” PNC senior economist Kurt Rankin wrote.

Stock market futures were slightly in negative territory following the economic news. Treasury yields were mixed while the odds of a rate cut next week were still around 98%, according to the CME Group.

One reason markets expect the Fed to cut, even amid stubborn inflation, is that Fed officials are growing more concerned about the labor market. Nonfarm payrolls have posted gains every month since December 2020, but the increases have slowed lately, and Thursday brought news that layoffs could be increasing as unemployment lasts longer.

Jobless claims posted their highest level since early October, while continuing claims, which run a week behind, edged higher to 1.89 million. The four-week moving average of continuing claims, which smooths out weekly volatility, rose to its highest level in just over four years.

Continue Reading

Economics

The Young Thug trial could be Fani Willis’s last big act

Published

on

It is a result that has the government licking its wounds. In May 2022 Fulton County prosecutors indicted 28 men from Cleveland Avenue, a rough part of Atlanta, for committing a string of killings, robberies and drug deals in service of a street gang led by Jeffery Williams, a rapper who goes by the name “Young Thug”. Over the past year the state presented a Georgia jury with nearly 200 witnesses and a barrage of rap verses that, it argued, proved that “YSL”, used to denote Mr Williams’s platinum-selling record label “Young Stoner Life”, also stood for “Young Slime Life” and was an affiliate of the notorious Bloods gang from Los Angeles. But when the alleged kingpin pleaded guilty in late October to overseeing crimes the judge chose to ignore the state’s recommendation to lock him up for decades, opting instead for 15 years probation and banishing him from Atlanta for ten.

Continue Reading

Economics

The Young Thug trial could be the district attorney’s last big act

Published

on

It is a result that has the government licking its wounds. In May 2022 Fulton County prosecutors indicted 28 men from Cleveland Avenue, a rough part of Atlanta, for committing a string of killings, robberies and drug deals in service of a street gang led by Jeffery Williams, a rapper who goes by the name “Young Thug”. Over the past year the state presented a Georgia jury with nearly 200 witnesses and a barrage of rap verses that, it argued, proved that “YSL”, used to denote Mr Williams’s platinum-selling record label “Young Stoner Life”, also stood for “Young Slime Life” and was an affiliate of the notorious Bloods gang from Los Angeles. But when the alleged kingpin pleaded guilty in late October to overseeing crimes the judge chose to ignore the state’s recommendation to lock him up for decades, opting instead for 15 years probation and banishing him from Atlanta for ten.

Continue Reading

Trending