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July inflation drops below 3% as Fed considers September rate cut

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Shelter costs are still high, but insurance rates are finally moderating. (iStock)

The annual inflation rate fell below 3% in July for the first time in over three years, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

On an annual basis, prices rose 2.9% in July, a slight softening from the 3.1% growth the previous month. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.2% after dipping 0.1% in June. The last time the overall CPI inflation rate was less than 2.9% was in March 2021. Core inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% monthly in July.

Inflation is moving closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, but prices remain high on many essentials. The stickiest piece of the puzzle remains shelter costs, which rose by 0.4% in July and accounted for 90% of the monthly inflation increase. It also rose more than 5% over the past year.

“That’s significant as it represents an outsized part of the index, but shelter costs are also notoriously hard to measure accurately and are often perceived to move with a lag,” according to Jim Baird, Planet Moran Financial Advisors chief investment officer. “Other indicators suggest shelter costs are well positioned to fall further in the months ahead.”

Still, July’s inflation reading will likely give the Federal Reserve the evidence to green-light a rate cut in September and may trigger additional cuts before the year ends.

“Finally, the rate of price increases at the cash register continues to slow down after a couple of years of painful surges, signaling a victory for the Fed’s monetary policy,” CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp said. “This means for the average American that the Fed will likely cut interest rates next month, which will slightly bring down the cost of borrowing; a good step for auto and home sales, in particular.”

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BEST PERSONAL LOANS OF AUGUST 2024

Car insurance rates are finally slowing down

Consumers may start to see some easing in car insurance costs, one of the greatest drivers of overall inflation for months, according to Jerry’s Vice President of Insurance Operations Josh Damico. Although July’s 18.6% increase is still hard on consumers’ wallets, Damico said it is encouraging that cost spikes are finally slowing.  

Insurance costs have skyrocketed in the last few years as inflation has driven up the costs of auto repairs and drivers submit more extensive claims. However, car repair costs and vehicle prices are stabilizing, which offers signs of hope, Damico said.

“Several carriers I’ve spoken with have started lowering rates, and many more in our network are telling us they’re re-evaluating increases they have taken or had planned to take in the future,” Damico said. “It seems we’ve turned a critical corner and American drivers can expect some relief.”

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Mortgage rates head in the right direction

Mortgage rates have moved in sync with the positive economic indicators and it becomes more apparent that the Fed will begin to ease its monetary policy this year.

The decline in mortgage rates, combined with a growing supply of housing inventory, should help increase prospective homebuyers’ appetites and give existing homeowners the opportunity to refinance.

“In the medium-run, we expect the economy to land softly and housing inventory to continue to recover,” Realtor.com Senior Economist Ralph McLaughlin said. “This should put downward pressure on mortgage rates this fall and winter and will set the stage for a much better season for homebuyers in 2025.”

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SHOULD YOU BUY A HOUSE IN 2024? HERE’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

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Fintech unicorns watch Klarna IPO for signs of when window will reopen

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Hiroki Takeuchi, co-founder and CEO of GoCardless. 

Zed Jameson | Bloomberg | Getty Images

LISBON, Portugal — Financial technology unicorns aren’t in a rush to go public after buy now, pay later firm Klarna filed for a U.S. IPO — but they’re keeping a watchful eye on it for signs of when the market will open up again.

Last week, Klarna made a confidential filing to go public in the U.S., ending months of speculation over where the Swedish digital payments firm would list. Timing of the IPO is still unclear, and Klarna has yet to decide on pricing or the number of shares it’ll issue to the public.

Still, the development drew buzz from fintech circles with market watchers asking if the move marks the start of a resurgence in big fintech IPOs. For now, that doesn’t appear to be the case — however, founders say they’ll be watching the IPO market, eyeing pricing and eventually stock performance closely.

Hiroki Takeuchi, CEO of online payments startup GoCardless, said last week that it’s not yet time for his company to fire the starting gun on an IPO. He views listing as more of a milestone on a journey than an end goal.

“The markets have been challenging over the last few years,” Takeuchi, whose business GoCardless was last valued at over $2 billion, said in a CNBC-moderated panel at the Web Summit tech conference in Lisbon, Portugal.

“We need to be focused on building a better business,” Takeuchi added, noting that “the rest will follow” if the startup gets that right. GoCardless specializes in recurring payments, transactions that come out of a consumer’s bank account in a routine fashion — such as a monthly donation to charity.

Lucy Liu, co-founder of cross-border payments firm Airwallex, agreed with Takeuchi and said it’s also not the right time for Airwallex to go public. In a separate interview, Liu directed CNBC to what her fellow Airwallex co-founder and CEO Jack Zhang has said previously — that the firm expects to be “IPO-ready” by 2026.

“Every company is different,” Liu said onstage, sat alongside Takeuchi on the same panel. Airwallex is more focused on becoming the best it can be at solving friction in global cross-border payments, she said.

An IPO is a goal in the company’s trajectory — but it’s not the final milestone, according to Liu. “We’re constantly in conversations with our investors shareholders,” she said, adding that will change “when the time is right.”

‘Stars aligning’ for fintech IPOs

One thing’s for sure, though — analysts are much more optimistic about the outlook for fintech IPOs now than they were before.

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“We outlined five handles to open the [IPO] window, and I think those stars are aligning in terms of the macro, interest rates, politics, the elections are out the way, volatility,” Navina Rajan, senior research analyst at private market data firm PitchBook, told CNBC.

“It’s definitely in a better place, but at the end of the day, we don’t know what’s going to happen, there’s a new president in the U.S.,” Rajan continued. “It will be interesting to see the timing of the IPO and also the valuation.”

Fintech companies have raised around 6.2 billion euros ($6.6 billion) in venture capital from the beginning of the year through Oct. 30, according to PitchBook data.

Jaidev Janardana, CEO and co-founder of British digital bank Zopa, told CNBC that an IPO is not an immediate priority for his firm.

“To be honest, it’s not the top of mind for me,” Janardana told CNBC. “I think we continue to be lucky to have supportive and long-term shareholders who support future growth as well.”

He implied private markets are currently still the most accommodative place to be able to build a technology business that’s focused on investing in growth.

However, Zopa’s CEO added that he’s seeing signs pointing toward a more favorable IPO market in the next couple of years, with the U.S. likely opening up in 2025.

That should mean that Europe becomes more open to IPOs happening the following year, according to Janardana. He didn’t disclose where Zopa is looking to go public.

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China’s Tencent sees opportunity in female Honor of Kings mobile gamers

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Tencent’s Honor of Kings mobile game drew a record 33,000 fans to watch a final competition in Beijing on Nov. 16, 2024.

CNBC | Evelyn Cheng

BEIJING — Chinese gaming giant Tencent is betting on a rise in female players worldwide for its mobile game Honor of Kings, which rolled out to the U.S. and other countries in June.

Already a hit in China, the game drew a record 33,000 fans to a Beijing stadium on Saturday to watch two teams compete for a $3 million grand prize.

Surprisingly, many in the crowd were young women, reflecting how interest in mobile games has broadened out from the stereotypical male player in the days of console and PC gaming.

Launched in China in November 2015, the game’s appeal lies in its easy learning curve and relatively short sessions of around 15 minutes. Anyone with a smartphone can play for free in real time, on the go.

“Honor of Kings became an important way for me to socialize,” said Tianyun Gao, according to CNBC’s translation of her spoken Mandarin. She started playing the game in 2017 as a sophomore in college and became a professional commentator for the game’s competitions a year later.

Gao, an English major from Shanghai, has moderated Honor of Kings’ competitions in two languages, including an international event held in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, in August. She said her hope is to see esports become as mainstream as traditional sports, noting that one of her inspirations is a Chinese soccer commentator.

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Tencent ramped up its global expansion plans for Honor of Kings this year, with its subsidiary, Level Infinite, in February announcing a $15 million investment in developing the game’s tournament worldwide.

An international version of the game has been available since 2016 under different names such as Arena of Valor, but the latest global push for Honor of Kings began in 2022. The game didn’t reach the Middle East until earlier this year and only launched in the key markets of North America, Europe and Japan in June.

Less than a month later, the game topped 50 million downloads outside China, according to the company.

Overwhelmingly mobile-focused

Growth in gaming among women stems largely from their preference in playing on their smartphones, without having to invest in consoles and other technology.

“Nearly half of female players play only on mobile platforms so we have a huge addressable audience,” said Jackie Huang, head of the Honor of Kings global esports division within Tencent Games’ TiMi L1 Studio. “Women make up a significant part of our player base but we want to see this continue growing.”

He said that 45% of gamers globally are women, and that the gender composition of Honor of Kings’ users is “relatively balanced. “We strive to provide users, no matter how they identify, with [a] high quality gaming experience,” Huang said.

Gaming is Tencent’s biggest revenue driver, with international games accounting for around 28% of the its overall gaming business in the third quarter.

The company also owns Riot Games, a developer whose PC-based League of Legends has become one of the most popular names in global esports with its own annual competition. Honor of Kings, which claims 100 million players a day, uses a similar format with two teams of five players each.

Such multiplayer games are the second-most popular category for female gamers, behind puzzles, said Xiaofeng Zeng, China-based vice president at gaming research firm Niko Partners. His analysis found that 95% of women prefer mobile games.

If Honor of Kings can hold first place in China, and achieve that position overseas, then Tencent can generate half its revenue from international markets, Zeng said. He said the game’s top overseas markets by revenue are the U.S., India, Malaysia, and Indonesia.

And in the key market of Southeast Asia, Zeng said that due to a low base, female players are growing two to three times more quickly than male gamers. A newly branded Honor of Kings global championship was held last month in Jakarta, Indonesia’s capital, with Malaysian team Black Shrew Esports winning the $300,000 first prize.

Early stages

For now, no matter how popular Honor of Kings may be among women, the competitions remain dominated by men. The two teams competing in Beijing on Saturday consisted only of male players.

Huang pointed out that the global championship this year featured a female player from France’s Team Vitality, which is also managed and coached by women.

He attributed the Honor of King’s popularity among women to the game’s playable characters that are also female. Many of the figures, each with different powers, are based on Chinese historical or mythological figures.

In 2021, organizers of the Honor of Kings competition in China also launched a tournament for female players. This year’s womens finals are set to take place in December, with a prize of around $41,000 for the winning team.

“The pandemic was a large accelerator of females into the games space and we have continued to see increased engagement from female gamers,” said Chirag Ambwani, SVP, gaming and entertainment, at SensorTower, which focuses on mobile games.

Reasons include specialized and easy to access content, he said, adding that gaming participation grew overall.

As for Honor of Kings’ global expansion, Ambwani said SensorTower research showed “healthy growth,” with average revenue of more than $5 per user in the U.S. and Canada.

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Druckenmiller bought regional banks but health-care pick is his biggest bet

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Key Points

  • Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller built a sizable position in regional banks and made one health-care name his biggest position last quarter.
  • Druckenmiller bought $115 million worth of shares in the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF in the third quarter, making it the firm’s seventh-biggest holding.

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