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July inflation drops below 3% as Fed considers September rate cut

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Shelter costs are still high, but insurance rates are finally moderating. (iStock)

The annual inflation rate fell below 3% in July for the first time in over three years, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

On an annual basis, prices rose 2.9% in July, a slight softening from the 3.1% growth the previous month. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.2% after dipping 0.1% in June. The last time the overall CPI inflation rate was less than 2.9% was in March 2021. Core inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% monthly in July.

Inflation is moving closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, but prices remain high on many essentials. The stickiest piece of the puzzle remains shelter costs, which rose by 0.4% in July and accounted for 90% of the monthly inflation increase. It also rose more than 5% over the past year.

“That’s significant as it represents an outsized part of the index, but shelter costs are also notoriously hard to measure accurately and are often perceived to move with a lag,” according to Jim Baird, Planet Moran Financial Advisors chief investment officer. “Other indicators suggest shelter costs are well positioned to fall further in the months ahead.”

Still, July’s inflation reading will likely give the Federal Reserve the evidence to green-light a rate cut in September and may trigger additional cuts before the year ends.

“Finally, the rate of price increases at the cash register continues to slow down after a couple of years of painful surges, signaling a victory for the Fed’s monetary policy,” CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp said. “This means for the average American that the Fed will likely cut interest rates next month, which will slightly bring down the cost of borrowing; a good step for auto and home sales, in particular.”

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BEST PERSONAL LOANS OF AUGUST 2024

Car insurance rates are finally slowing down

Consumers may start to see some easing in car insurance costs, one of the greatest drivers of overall inflation for months, according to Jerry’s Vice President of Insurance Operations Josh Damico. Although July’s 18.6% increase is still hard on consumers’ wallets, Damico said it is encouraging that cost spikes are finally slowing.  

Insurance costs have skyrocketed in the last few years as inflation has driven up the costs of auto repairs and drivers submit more extensive claims. However, car repair costs and vehicle prices are stabilizing, which offers signs of hope, Damico said.

“Several carriers I’ve spoken with have started lowering rates, and many more in our network are telling us they’re re-evaluating increases they have taken or had planned to take in the future,” Damico said. “It seems we’ve turned a critical corner and American drivers can expect some relief.”

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GROW YOUR MONEY FASTER: 5 ALTERNATIVES TO A SAVINGS ACCOUNT

Mortgage rates head in the right direction

Mortgage rates have moved in sync with the positive economic indicators and it becomes more apparent that the Fed will begin to ease its monetary policy this year.

The decline in mortgage rates, combined with a growing supply of housing inventory, should help increase prospective homebuyers’ appetites and give existing homeowners the opportunity to refinance.

“In the medium-run, we expect the economy to land softly and housing inventory to continue to recover,” Realtor.com Senior Economist Ralph McLaughlin said. “This should put downward pressure on mortgage rates this fall and winter and will set the stage for a much better season for homebuyers in 2025.”

If you’re looking to become a homeowner, you could find your best mortgage rates by shopping around. Visit Credible to compare your options without affecting your credit score. 

SHOULD YOU BUY A HOUSE IN 2024? HERE’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

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Berkshire advances on surge in earnings, but questions linger about cash

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Warren Buffett walks the floor ahead of the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting in Omaha, Nebraska on May 3, 2024. 

David A. Grogen | CNBC

Berkshire Hathaway shares got a boost after Warren Buffett’s conglomerate reported a surge in operating earnings, but shareholders who were waiting for news of what will happen to its enormous pile of cash might be disappointed.

Class A shares of the Omaha-based parent of Geico and BNSF Railway rose 1.2% premarket Monday following Berkshire’s earnings report over the weekend. Berkshire’s operating profit — earnings from the company’s wholly owned businesses — skyrocketed 71% to $14.5 billion in the fourth quarter, aided by insurance underwriting, where profits jumped 302% from the year-earlier period, to $3.4 billion.

Berkshire’s investment gains from its portfolio holdings slowed sharply, however, in the fourth quarter, to $5.2 billion from $29.1 billion in the year-earlier period. Berkshire sold more equities than it bought for a ninth consecutive quarter in the three months of last year, bringing total sale of equities to more than $134 billion in 2024. Notably, the 94-year-old investor has been aggressively shrinking Berkshire’s two largest equity holdings — Apple and Bank of America.

As a result of the selling spree, Berkshire’s gigantic cash pile grew to another record of $334.2 billion, up from $325.2 billion at the end of the third quarter. 

In Buffett’s annual letter, the “Oracle of Omaha” said that raising a record amount of cash didn’t reflect a dimming of his love for buying stocks and businesses.

“Despite what some commentators currently view as an extraordinary cash position at Berkshire, the great majority of your money remains in equities,” Buffett wrote. “That preference won’t change.”

He hinted that high valuations were the reason for sitting on his hands amid a raging bull market, saying “often, nothing looks compelling.” Buffett also endorsed the ability of Greg Abek, his chosen successor, to pick equity opportunities, even comparing him to the late Charlie Munger.

Meanwhile, Berkshire’s buyback halt is still in place as the conglomerate repurchased zero shares in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter of this year, through Feb. 10.

Some investors and analysts expressed impatience with the lack of action and continued to wait for an explanation, while others have faith that Buffett’s conservative stance will pave the way for big opportunities in the next downturn.

“Shareholders should take comfort in knowing that the firm continues to be managed to survive and emerge stronger from any economic or market downturn by being in a financial position to take advantage of opportunities during a crisis,” said Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust Company and a Berkshire shareholder.

Berkshire is coming off a strong year, when it rallied 25.5% in 2024, outperforming the S&P 500 — its best since 2021. The stock is up more than 5% so far in 2025.

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Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: DPZ, BABA, RIVN, PLTR

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China strives to attract foreign investment amid geopolitical tensions

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Tensions between the world’s two largest economies have escalated over the last several years.

Florence Lo | Reuters

BEIJING — China is trying yet again to boost foreign investment, amid geopolitical tensions and businesses’ calls for more concrete actions.

On Feb. 19, authorities published a “2025 action plan for stabilizing foreign investment” to make it easier for foreign capital to invest in domestic telecommunication and biotechnology industries, according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese.

The document called for clearer standards in government procurement — a major issue for foreign businesses in China — and for the development of a plan to gradually allow foreign investment in the education and culture sectors.

“We are looking forward to see this implemented in a manner that delivers tangible benefits for our members,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said in a statement Thursday.

The chamber pointed out that China has already mentioned plans to open up telecommunications, health care, education and culture to foreign investment. Greater clarity on public procurement requirements is a “notable positive,” the chamber said, noting that “if fully implemented,” it could benefit foreign companies that have invested heavily to localize their production in China.

There will be a 'stronger push' for foreign direct investments by the Chinese government: Strategist

China’s latest action plan was released around the same time the Commerce Ministry disclosed that foreign direct investment in January fell by 13.4% to 97.59 billion yuan ($13.46 billion). That was after FDI plunged by 27.1% in 2024 and dropped by 8% in 2023, after at least eight straight years of annual growth, according to official data available through Wind Information.

All regions should “ensure that all the measures are implemented in 2025, and effectively boost foreign investment confidence,” the plan said. The Ministry of Commerce and National Development and Reform Commission — the economic planning agency — jointly released the action plan through the government’s executive body, the State Council.

Officials from the Commerce Ministry emphasized in a press conference Thursday that the action plan would be implemented by the end of 2025, and that details on subsequent supportive measures would come soon.

“We appreciate the Chinese government’s recognition of the vital role foreign companies play in the economy,” Michael Hart, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said in a statement. “We look forward to further discussions on the key challenges our members face and the steps needed to ensure a more level playing field for market access.”

AmCham China’s latest survey of members, released last month, found that a record share are considering or have started diversifying manufacturing or sourcing away from China. The prior year’s survey had found members were finding it harder to make money in China than before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Consumer spending in China has remained lackluster since the pandemic, with retail sales only growing by the low single digits in recent months. Tensions with the U.S. have meanwhile escalated as the White House has restricted Chinese access to advanced technology and levied tariffs on Chinese goods.

‘A very strong signal’

While many aspects of the action plan were publicly mentioned last year, some points — such as allowing foreign companies to buy local equity stakes using domestic loans — are relatively new, said Xiaojia Sun, Beijing-based partner at JunHe Law.

She also highlighted the plan’s call to support foreign investors’ ability to participate in mergers and acquisitions in China, and noted it potentially benefits overseas listings. Sun’s practice covers corporates, mergers and acquisitions and capital markets.

The bigger question remains China’s resolve to act on the plan.

“This action plan is a very strong signal,” Sun said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. She said she expects Beijing to follow through with implementation, and noted that its release was similar to a rare, high-profile meeting earlier in the week of Chinese President Xi Jinping and entrepreneurs.

That gathering on Feb. 17 included Alibaba founder Jack Ma and DeepSeek’s Liang Wenfeng. In recent years, regulatory crackdowns and uncertainty about future growth had dampened business confidence and foreign investor sentiment.

China needs to strike a balance between tariff retaliation and stabilizing FDI, Citi analysts pointed out earlier this month.

“We believe China policymakers are likely cautious about targeting U.S. [multinationals] as a form of retaliation against U.S. tariffs,” the analysts said. “FDI comes into China, bringing technology and know-how, creating jobs, revenue and profit, and contributing to tax revenue.” 

In a relatively rare acknowledgement, Chinese Commerce Ministry officials on Thursday noted the impact of geopolitical tensions on foreign investment, including some companies’ decision to diversify away from China. They also pointed out that foreign-invested firms contribute to nearly 7% of employment and around 14% of taxes in the country.

Previously, official commentary from the Commerce Ministry about any drop in FDI tended to focus only on how most foreign businesses remained optimistic about long-term prospects in China.

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