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Klarna scores payment deal with Uber ahead of anticipated IPO 

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The Swedish “buy now, pay later” pioneer said Tuesday that its new design would help users find the items they want by using more advanced AI recommendation algorithms, while merchants will be able to target customers more effectively.

Rafael Henrique | SOPA Images | LightRocket via Getty Images

Klarna on Wednesday announced a global partnership with Uber to power payments for the ride-hailing giant’s Uber and Uber Eats apps.

The partnership will see the Swedish financial technology firm added as a payment option in the U.S., Germany and Sweden, Klarna said in a statement. 

In those countries, Klarna will roll out its “Pay Now” option in the two apps, which lets customers pay off an order instantly in one click. Users will be able to track all their Uber purchases in the Klarna app.

The company will also offer an additional payment option for Uber users in Sweden and Germany, allowing users to bundle purchases into a single, interest-free payment that gets removed from their monthly salary.

Interestingly, the company isn’t rolling out installment-based “buy now, pay later” plans, arguably Uber’s most popular service offering, on its platforms.

Sebastian Siemiatkowski, CEO and co-founder of Klarna, said in a statement Wednesday that the deal represented a “significant milestone” for the company.

Klarna's new credit card is a 'healthier alternative' to others, says CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski

“Consumers can Pay Now quickly and securely in full, which already accounts for over one third of Klarna’s global volumes, and more easily manage their finances in one place,” Siemiatkowski said.

Klarna declined to disclose the financial terms of its deal with Uber.  

Big pre-IPO merchant win

The Uber deal marks one of the most significant merchant wins for Klarna as of late and comes as the European fintech giant is rumored to be gearing up for a blockbuster initial public offering that could value the firm at just north of $20 billion. 

Klarna began having detailed discussions with investment banks to work on an IPO that could happen as early as the third quarter, Bloomberg News reported in February, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter. 

CNBC could not independently verify the accuracy of the report. Klarna has said that it doesn’t comment on market speculation. 

Such a market flotation would mark a turnaround for a company that saw $38.9 billion erased from its valuation in 2022 when deteriorating macroeconomic conditions stoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused a reset of sky-high tech valuations. 

Klarna reached an eye-watering $45.6 billion in a 2021 funding round led by SoftBank, before seeing its market value fall to $6.7 billion the following year in a so-called “down round.” 

The firm recently launched a monthly subscription plan in the U.S. to lock in “power users” ahead of its anticipated IPO. 

The product is called Klarna Plus and costs $7.99 per month. Klarna Plus enables users to get service fees waived, earn double rewards points and access curated discounts from partners, such as Nike and Instacart. 

Last year, Klarna reported its first quarterly profit in four years after cutting its credit losses by 56%.

The company posted an operating profit of 130 million Swedish krona (roughly $11.7 million) in the third quarter of 2023, swinging to a profit for a loss of 2 billion Swedish krona (roughly $183.6 million) in the same period a year earlier.

Buy now, pay later boom

Klarna is one of many “buy now, pay later” services that allow users to pay off their purchases over a period of monthly installments.  

The payment method has become increasingly popular among consumers who are making online and in-person shopping purchases. It also can be an alternative to credit cards charging interest and high fees. 

However, it has also stoked concerns about the affordability of such services, and whether it is in fact encouraging some consumers — particularly younger people — to spend more than they can afford. 

In the U.K., the government has proposed draft laws to regulate the “buy now, pay later” industry. 

The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has previously said that it plans to subject “buy now, pay later” lenders to the same oversight as credit card companies. 

Meanwhile, the European Union last year passed a revised version of its Consumer Credit Directive to include “buy now, pay later” services under the scope of the rules. 

For its part, Klarna has defended the “buy now, pay later” model, arguing that it offers customers a cheaper way to access credit compared with traditional credit cards and consumer loans. 

The company also said it welcomes regulation of “buy now, pay later” products.

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Tariffs may raise much less than White House projects, economists say

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President Donald Trump speaks before signing executive orders in the Oval Office on March 6, 2025.

Alex Wong | Getty Images

President Donald Trump says that tariffs will make the U.S. “rich.” But those riches will likely be far less than the White House expects, economists said.

The ultimate sum could have big ramifications for the U.S. economy, the nation’s debt and legislative negotiations over a tax-cut package, economists said.

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro on Sunday estimated tariffs would raise about $600 billion a year and $6 trillion over a decade. Auto tariffs would add another $100 billion a year, he said on “Fox News Sunday.”

Navarro made the projection as the U.S. plans to announce more tariffs against U.S. trading partners on Wednesday.

Economists expect the Trump administration’s tariff policy would generate a much lower amount of revenue than Navarro claims. Some project the total revenue would be less than half.

Roughly $600 billion to $700 billion a year “is not even in the realm of possibility,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s. “If you get to $100 billion to $200 billion, you’ll be pretty lucky.”

The White House declined to respond to a request for comment from CNBC about tariff revenue.

The ‘mental math’ behind tariff revenue

There are big question marks over the scope of the tariffs, including details like amount, duration, and products and countries affected — all of which have a significant bearing on the revenue total.

The White House is considering a 20% tariff on most imports, The Washington Post reported on Tuesday. President Trump floated this idea on the campaign trail. The Trump administration may ultimately opt for a different policy, like country-by-country tariffs based on each nation’s respective trade and non-trade barriers.

But a 20% tariff rate seems to align with Navarro’s revenue projections, economists said.

The U.S. imported about $3.3 trillion of goods in 2024. Applying a 20% tariff rate to all these imports would yield about $660 billion of annual revenue.

“That is almost certainly the mental math Peter Navarro is doing — and that mental math skips some crucial steps,” said Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab and former chief economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Biden administration.

Trade advisor to U.S. President Donald Trump Peter Navarro speaks to press outside of the White House on March 12, 2025 in Washington, DC. 

Kayla Bartkowski | Getty Images

That’s because an accurate revenue estimate must account for the many economic impacts of tariffs in the U.S. and around the world, economists said. Those effects combine to reduce revenue, they said.

A 20% broad tariff would raise about $250 billion a year (or $2.5 trillion over a decade) when taking those effects into account, according to Tedeschi, citing a Yale Budget Lab analysis published Monday.  

There are ways to raise larger sums — but they would involve higher tariff rates, economists said. For example, a 50% across-the-board tariff would raise about $780 billion per year, according to economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Even that is an optimistic assessment: It doesn’t account for lower U.S. economic growth due to retaliation or the negative growth effects from the tariffs themselves, they wrote.

Why revenue would be lower than expected

Tariffs generally raise prices for consumers. A 20% broad tariff would cost the average consumer $3,400 to $4,200 a year, according to the Yale Budget Lab.

Consumers would naturally buy fewer imported goods if they cost more, economists said. Lower demand means fewer imports and less tariff revenue from those imports, they said.

Tariffs are also expected to trigger “reduced economic activity,” said Robert McClelland, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

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For example, U.S. companies that don’t pass tariff costs on to consumers via higher prices would likely see profits suffer (and their income taxes fall), economists said. Consumers might pull back on spending, further denting company profits and tax revenues, economists said. Companies that take a financial hit might lay off workers, they said.

Foreign nations are also expected to retaliate with their own tariffs on U.S. products, which would hurt companies that export products abroad. Other nations may experience an economic downturn, further reducing demand for U.S. products.

Tariffs could be a major rewiring of the domestic and global economy, says Mohamed El-Erian

“If you get a 20% tariff rate, you’re going to get a rip-roaring recession, and that will undermine your fiscal situation,” Zandi said.

There’s also likely to be a certain level of non-compliance with tariff policy, and carve-outs for certain countries, industries or products, economists said. For instance, when the White House levied tariffs on China in February, it indefinitely exempted “de minimis” imports valued at $800 or less.

The Trump administration might also funnel some tariff revenue to paying certain parties aggrieved by a trade war, economists said.

President Trump did that in his first term: The government sent $61 billion in “relief” payments to American farmers who faced retaliatory tariffs, which was nearly all (92%) of the tariff revenue on Chinese goods from 2018 to 2020, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

The tariffs will also likely have a short life span, diluting their potential revenue impact, economists said. They’re being issued by executive order and could be undone easily, whether by President Trump or a future president, they said.

“There’s zero probability these tariffs will last for 10 years,” Zandi said. “If they last until next year I’d be very surprised.”

Why this matters

The Trump administration has signaled that tariffs “will be one of the top-tier ways they’ll try to offset the cost” of passing a package of tax cuts, Tedeschi said.

Extending a 2017 tax cut law signed by President Trump would cost $4.5 trillion over a decade, according to the Tax Foundation. Trump has also called for other tax breaks like no taxes on tips, overtime pay or Social Security benefits, and a tax deduction for auto loan interest for American made cars.

If tariffs don’t cover the full cost of such a package, then Republican lawmakers would have to find cuts elsewhere or increase the nation’s debt, economists said.

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Investors hope April 2 could bring some tariff clarity and relief. That may not happen

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Cliff Asness’s AQR multi-strategy hedge fund returns 9% in the first quarter during tough conditions

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Cliff Asness.

Chris Goodney | Bloomberg | Getty Images

AQR Capital Management’s multistrategy hedge fund beat the market with a 9% rally in the first quarter as Wall Street grappled with extreme volatility amid President Donald Trump’s uncertain tariff policy.

The Apex strategy from Cliff Asness’ firm, which combines stocks, macro and arbitrage trades and has $3 billion in assets under management, gained 3.4% in March, boosting its first-quarter performance, according to a person familiar with AQR’s returns who asked to be anonymous as the information is private.

AQR’s Delphi Long-Short Equity Strategy gained 9.7% in the first quarter, while its alternative trend-following offering Helix returned 3%, the person said.

AQR, whose assets under management reached $128 billion at the end of March, declined to comment.

The stock market just wrapped up a tumultuous quarter as Trump’s aggressive tariffs raised concerns about an severe economic slowdown and a re-acceleration of inflation. The S&P 500 dipped into correction territory in March after hitting a record in February.

For the quarter, the equity benchmark was down 4.6%, snapping a five-quarter win streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 10.4% in the quarter, which would mark its biggest quarterly pullback since a 22.4% plunge in the second quarter of 2022.

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