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March inflation drops to lowest point in more than 3 years

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Egg prices keep soaring, but inflation is moving in the right direction. (iStock)

Consumer prices fell 0.1% in March, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This is the first monthly drop since July 2022.

Annual inflation increased 2.4% compared to a 2.8% increase registered in February. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, grew at a pace of 2.8% over the last year, the smallest 12-month increase since March 2021. A decline of 6.3% in gas prices more than offset increases in the indexes for electricity and natural gas. Food, however, rose 0.4% in March. The meats, poultry, fish and eggs index rose 7.9% over the last 12 months and the price of eggs alone jumped 60.4%.

Inflation continues to move towards the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate. Still, the impact of President Donald Trump’s implementation of new tariff measures could derail this progress and hinder economic growth, according to Jim Baird, Plante Moran Financial Advisors’ chief investment officer.

“As consumers brace for the impact of tariffs on prices on a host of staples and discretionary goods, there’s considerable uncertainty on what that near-term magnitude of the impact will be for growth and inflation, although the direction for each is clearer,” Baird said. “That’s sent economists scrambling to update their forecasts to lower growth and increase expected inflation for the duration of the year.”

Despite concerns about the effects of President Trump’s tariffs, the Fed continues to hold interest rates steady, and it’s not expected to make any significant changes soon, including a potential rate cut. While tariffs could lead to higher inflation and slower economic growth, the Fed is waiting for more clarity on the full impact of these policies before deciding on any course of action. 

If you are struggling with high inflation, consider taking out a personal loan to pay down debt at a lower interest rate, reducing your monthly payments. Visit Credible to find your personalized interest rate without affecting your credit score.

MORTGAGE RATES HIT A TWO-MONTH LOW THIS WEEK, REMAIN UNDER 7%

Recession risks increasing

President Trump’s tariffs are also contributing to an increased risk of recession. Several major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan, have raised their recession probabilities. According to Baird, part of the problem is that as prices rise due to tariffs, consumers may decide to curb their spending.

“Sentiment has soured in recent months, and there are already signs of not only a more cautious mood but more constrained spending,” Baird said. “Prices may rise, but that doesn’t mean that consumers will pay any price for any product. Some may grumble but continue to spend, but many are much more likely to trade down to cheaper alternatives or delay discretionary purchases.

“That reality raises the probability of a more notable slowdown in the pace of the economy, with the risk of recession also rising,” Baird continued.

You can take out a personal loan before future rate hikes to help pay down high-interest debt. Visit Credible to find your personal loan rate without affecting your credit score.

CALIFORNIA’S HOMEOWNERS INSURANCE INDUSTRY FACES ROUGH ROAD AHEAD AS WILDFIRES CONTINUE

Spring homebuying season looks promising

March shelter inflation data showed it dropped to 4.0% from 4.2% in February. That’s good news since shelter inflation has been a major force in keeping inflation elevated in recent years and could help move the needle on interest rates.

Mortgage rates continue to trend down, remaining under 7% for the twelfth consecutive week and could boost spring sales, according to Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater.

“As purchase applications continue to climb, the spring homebuying season is shaping up to look more favorable than last year,” Khater said.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.62% for the week ending April 10, according to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey. That’s a decrease from the previous week, when it averaged 6.64% and lower than the 6.88% it was a year ago. 

“Unfortunately, inflation remains painfully stubborn, well above the Fed’s 2% target for lowering rates,” said Gabe Abshire, Move Concierge CEO. “Considering the housing sector has lower exposure to the current global trade environment, it would be helpful for the Fed to lower rates and boost the Spring and Summer home buying market.”

If you want to become a homeowner, you can find your best mortgage rates by shopping around. Visit Credible to compare your options without affecting your credit score. 

FHFA ANNOUNCES HIGHER MORTGAGE LOAN LIMITS FOR 2025

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Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Frontier Group, JPMorgan, Apple, Stellantis, BlackRock and more

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These are the stocks posting the largest moves in midday trading.

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Tariff turmoil and bond market shock: More challenges ahead?

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Inside the mystery of rising bond yields and why the sector is still attractive

A global trade slowdown tied to U.S. tariffs will likely create a more challenging environment for bond fund managers, according to financial futurist Dave Nadig.

“All of these capital holding requirements that led to buying U.S. Treasurys are kind of unwinding at the same time,” the former ETF.com CEO told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” on Wednesday. “So, the traditional math of things are bad for stocks, [and] everybody is going to buy bond just isn’t working out this time because the kind of shock we’re seeing is one we’ve never seen before.”  

The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield increased to 4.4% on Thursday. The yield is up more than 10 percent just this week. Last Friday, it touched 3.86%.

Nadig thinks slowing trade will continue to impact market activity.

“When you have less trade, you need to finance less trade,” he said. “Historically, people have needed to finance dollars. That’s why every country in the world buys U.S. Treasurys. It helps them manage their international trade with the United States. So, if we’re slowing down the amount of international trade, we should expect in aggregate the holdings of bonds to probably come down.”

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Jamie Dimon expects S&P 500 earnings estimates to fall amid uncertainty

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JPMorgan Chase CEO and Chairman Jamie Dimon gestures as he speaks during the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee oversight hearing on Wall Street firms, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C.

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Friday that he expects estimates for corporate earnings to fall amid the uncertainty created by President Donald Trump‘s trade negotiations.

In a call with reporters to discuss first quarter earnings, JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum said he didn’t see a reason to pull the bank’s guidance, which is contingent on how the economy and interest rates play out.

His boss, Dimon, then interjected, speaking about the broader corporate world: “I would just add companies, some have taken away their guidance. I expect to see more of that.”

“Analysts have generally reduced their S&P estimate earnings by 5%,” in recent days, Dimon said. “I think you’ll see that come down some more.”

Companies will be reporting earnings over the next several weeks, giving managers an opportunity to update investors on their outlook during a period of heightened uncertainty. Markets have whipsawed since Trump announced a sweeping set of tariffs on America’s trading partners last week, and have remained volatile as U.S.-China tensions have escalated.

Already, companies with exposure to the American consumer including Walmart, Delta and Frontier Airlines have reined in parts of their guidance to investors.

The uncertainty is causing clients to pull back from acquiring companies and making investments as they adopt a wait-and-see attitude, Dimon and Barnum said.

Anecdotal examples suggest that “people are being cautious,” Dimon said. “You know, people are pulling back on doing deals, not just big ones, but middle market companies are being very cautious about investment.”

Barnum added that the environment has led businesses to drop long term plans in favor of “near term optimization of supply chains.”

“This level of policy uncertainty is one that makes it hard to plan for the long term,” Barnum said.

Meanwhile, consumers have held up in the first quarter, and more recently there are signs they have been accelerating purchases on concerns that tariffs will make them more expensive, Barnum said.

This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

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