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Markets are sure the Fed will cut in September, but the path from there is much murkier

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Aug. 22, 2025, in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Friday’s booming rally turned into Monday’s reality check as investors weighed just how aggressive the Federal Reserve will be on lowering interest rates and how the moves might impact the broader business and economic climate.

Chair Jerome Powell, in his annual address at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming, symposium, gave Wall Street hope of easier days ahead when he said conditions “may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” which is generally seen as “Fedspeak” for cutting rates.

Stocks soared while Treasury yields plummeted on the news as the knee-jerk reaction took hold for a rate reduction when the Federal Open Market Committee issues its next decision on Sept. 17.

However, cheer turned to caution Monday as market experts weighed what happens next, even if a move next month is baked in. Stocks were mostly lower and shorter-maturing Treasury yields, which are more sensitive to Fed action, moved higher.

“I’m on the slower side more than the faster side if the Fed, does go,” said Jason Granet, chief investment officer at BNY. “He definitely moved the door ajar, as opposed to kicked it wide open for September.”

Traders on Monday were pricing in a near-certainty of a September quarter percentage point reduction from the Fed’s current target rate, currently around 4.3%. The implied probability of 82% was only slightly higher than a week ago but well above the 62% odds of a month ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure of futures prices.

However, there is less certainty from there.

Potential slow pace ahead

The implied probability for another cut in October was just 42%. That second cut is about fully priced in for December, but there’s just a 33% expectation for three total moves this year.

“I think there’s more to play for in the data between now and the September meeting,” Granet said. “So then the question will start to center around pace.”

Skeptics of a faster easing pace center their arguments around ongoing concerns about tariff-induced inflation and an economy that is holding up despite signs that the labor market is slowing.

“Although we are aware of the extreme political pressures on the Fed to ease, and we acknowledge cracks emerging in some labor market data, from our perch … the case for cuts looks modest,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, said in a note. “And we can’t help but ask — what problem, exactly, does the Fed feel an urgency to solve?”

Despite the market pricing, Morgan Stanley sees just a 50% probability for a September reduction. The firm also cited uncertainty about inflation as well as the Fed’s commitment to independence amid the heat from President Donald Trump and White House officials to lower rates.

Shalett also cautioned clients about putting too much faith in Fed easing for the next leg up in stocks as “we question the impact of rate cuts in any case, given the reality that absent recession, an easing cycle is apt to be shallow while the interest rate sensitivity of the biggest economic agents has meaningfully declined.”

Worries over a repeat of 2024

Indeed, there are ongoing questions about the impact of Fed rates in the current climate.

At this time a year ago, the central bank entered an easing mode that ended up having unintended consequences — an inverse move in Treasury yields and mortgage rates pushed by worries that the Fed might be taking its foot off the brake too soon along with expectations for stronger economic growth.

That’s the kind of consideration that has market veteran Ed Yardeni wondering about the wisdom of another round of cuts as he worries that Powell might be wrong about the temporary impulse of inflation from Trump’s tariffs.

“The Fed won’t listen to me. Of course, they’ll do what they’re going to do,” the head of Yardeni Research said Monday on CNBC. “The cautious tale is what happened last year when the Fed lowered by 100 basis points and the bond yield went up 100 basis points.”

Should that happen again, it would thwart the White House’s hopes for lower financing costs on the national debt and a boost for the housing market through lower mortgage rates.

On the bright side, though, Yardeni thinks the equity market rally will get a boost from rate cuts, and he is maintaining his bullish view on stocks even in the face of a potential policy mistake. Yardeni thinks the S&P 500 could add another 2% from here to close the year around 6,600, then climb another 14% in 2026 to close at 7,500.

“I think we’re going to have a continuation of the bull market, but I think it’s going to be earnings led,” he said. “If the Fed does go ahead and lower rates on Sept. 17, I think my targets may be too conservative right now.”

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Big Tech Enterprise Borrowing Reaches $135 Billion as Hyperscalers Fund AI Infrastructure

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Big Tech Enterprise Borrowing Reaches $135 Billion

Corporate debt markets are undergoing a major structural shift as major technology hyperscalers execute unprecedented debt offerings to finance large-scale artificial intelligence infrastructure. According to institutional market estimates, the annual value of debt issued by top technology firms reached $135 billion in 2026, marking a massive increase from the $35 billion annual average recorded between 2020 and 2024. This wave of corporate borrowing reflects the immense capital required to build next-generation data centers, secure specialized silicon, and build energy infrastructure.

The scale of AI-driven capital expenditures is reshaping corporate finance frameworks. While tech giants historically maintained fortress balance sheets dominated by cash reserves and minimal debt liabilities, the speed of the AI infrastructure deployment race has led corporate treasurers to access debt capital markets. These multi-billion-dollar corporate bond issuances are competing directly with sovereign debt for institutional investment capital.

Credit rating agencies and fixed income analysts are evaluating the long-term balance sheet implications of this corporate borrowing boom. While technology hyperscalers possess substantial revenue streams and strong operating margins, the high interest rate environment means new debt issuances carry higher coupon burdens. Financial analysts are closely tracking return-on-investment (ROI) metrics to ensure capital outlays generate sufficient cash flow to service expanding debt obligations over the coming decade.

Despite elevated borrowing costs, primary market demand for high-grade technology bonds remains robust. Institutional asset managers, pension funds, and insurance firms are absorbing new issuances, attracted by investment-grade credit ratings and attractive yields. However, the concentration of corporate debt issuance within the technology sector highlights growing exposure to enterprise technology spend cycles.

Why This Information Matters
The massive surge in technology sector debt issuance impacts broader credit markets and institutional liquidity. For corporate leaders and investors, understanding how major enterprise tech firms fund infrastructure expansion provides key insights into market interest rate dynamics, corporate credit availability, and the long-term ROI expectations driving modern corporate finance.

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S&P 500 Outperforms Amid Strong Corporate Earnings as Treasury Yields Cap Equity Multiples

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S&P 500 Outperforms Amid Strong Corporate Earnings as Treasury Yields Cap Equity Multiples

Financial markets opened September on a firm footing following a solid performance in August, where the S&P 500 gained 2.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 3.9%. Corporate earnings across major index constituents showed impressive momentum, with S&P 500 year-over-year earnings growth topping historic averages. However, despite robust corporate balance sheets, equity market valuations face headwinds as benchmark 10-year Treasury yields remain elevated near 4.75%.

The current financial environment is characterized by a strong divergence between corporate earnings resilience and bond market pressure. Enterprise technology leaders, financial institutions, and consumer sectors reported strong profit margins, benefiting from operational efficiency gains and disciplined cost management. Yet, institutional investors remain cautious about expanding price-to-earnings multiples when risk-free benchmark bond yields offer yields near 4.7%.

Fixed income markets continue to reflect restrictive monetary conditions. The broader aggregate bond market recorded flat total returns year-to-date, while fixed income yields—such as 30-day SEC yields on core bond funds—stayed above 4.6%. This yield profile provides institutional and retail investors with meaningful cash flow returns without taking on equity market downside risk, creating a competitive alternative for institutional capital allocation.

Portfolio managers and investment strategists recommend a disciplined, quality-oriented approach entering the final quarter of 2026. Rather than chasing speculative momentum, capital flows are favoring companies with strong cash flow generation, low debt-to-equity ratios, and robust pricing power capable of withstanding elevated input costs.

Why This Information Matters
The tension between strong corporate earnings and elevated bond yields directly impacts portfolio allocations and retirement wealth. Individual investors and wealth managers must balance equity market participation with fixed-income yield opportunities, ensuring portfolios are diversified against sudden valuation adjustments caused by fluctuating benchmark interest rates.

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Treasury Bond Volatility Forces Bessent to Double Debt Buyback Size as Yields Swing

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Bessent

A turbulent week in the U.S. Treasury market prompted the Treasury Department to sharply increase the size of its long-term debt buyback program, as bond prices fell even while equity markets pushed toward record highs. The divergence has drawn attention from fixed-income strategists who see it as a signal of underlying investor unease about federal borrowing levels.

What Happened This Week

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday, August 20, 2026, that the Treasury had doubled the size of its long-term debt buyback operations, moving from roughly $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. Bessent indicated the figure could climb further, saying “we’re going to increase the size of the buyback,” and noted the accelerated pace could exceed the announced $4 billion threshold per issue.

Buybacks allow the Treasury to repurchase outstanding government bonds directly from the market, which can help support prices and dampen yield volatility during periods of stress. The expanded program came as stocks staged a late-week recovery: the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both advanced on Friday, August 21, even as Treasuries logged mild losses, according to Bloomberg market data.

Why Bond and Equity Markets Are Diverging

Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn described the week’s dynamic as markets “ending the week on a softer tone after the relative calm of early August was disrupted by renewed pressure in global bond markets, another rise in oil prices, and growing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move.” She noted that higher long-term borrowing costs are increasingly challenging elevated equity valuations, even as U.S. equities pull back modestly from record highs.

This divergence — equities near record levels while bonds sell off  is unusual and reflects two different sets of investor concerns. Equity investors have remained focused on corporate earnings strength, particularly from large technology companies ahead of Nvidia’s closely watched August 26 earnings report. Bond investors, by contrast, are more directly exposed to concerns about the scale of federal borrowing, highlighted this week by the national debt crossing the $40 trillion threshold for the first time.

The Fed and Treasury “Working in Opposite Directions”

Wilmington Trust senior bond portfolio manager Wil Stith told Yahoo Finance that current conditions reflect “the Fed and the Treasury basically working in sort of opposite directions,” adding that the imbalance will likely require the Federal Reserve  which he described as having “the larger sandbox”  to adjust the federal funds rate rather than relying on Treasury market interventions alone to manage yields.

Notably, the bond market’s reaction to the Treasury’s buyback expansion was relatively muted; strategists described the move as being largely absorbed without a major rally, suggesting the underlying pressure on yields stems from factors, such as inflation persistence and debt sustainability concerns, that a buyback program alone cannot resolve.

What Comes Next

Markets are now looking to two major events in the days ahead: Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, August 26, and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, running August 27-29. This will be the first Jackson Hole gathering under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose public communication style and policy signals remain less established than his predecessors’, according to market commentary from Regards of Wall Street.

For investors, the key metrics to watch are the size and frequency of future Treasury buyback operations, movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, and any policy signals from Warsh’s keynote address. Continued yield volatility alongside record equity valuations would suggest the market imbalance identified this week has not yet been resolved.

 

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