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Millennials will spend big this holiday season, TransUnion finds

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Increase in consumer holiday spending expected this year, says Mastercard's Michelle Meyer

Parents tend to splurge on their children during the holidays.

This year, 63% of millennials, many of whom now have school-age children of their own, said they plan to spend the same or more on holiday shopping as they did last year — the highest share of any generation, according to a quarterly report by TransUnion.

Millennials are also more likely to say their income went up over the last few months and that they expect their earnings potential to increase again in the year ahead. TransUnion polled 3,000 adults in October.

“I see a lot of optimism going into the holiday season,” said Charlie Wise, TransUnion’s senior vice president and head of global research and consulting.

For many in this group, recent wage gains have outpaced rising prices and, although the broader unemployment rate has ticked higher, “we are still seeing a steady employment situation,” Wise said. “When people have jobs, that confidence is going to translate into spending.”

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“It’s clear that millennials will play the largest role this holiday shopping season with the greatest expected spend,” Wise said.

Holiday spending between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31 is forecast to increase to a record total of $979.5 billion to $989 billion, according to the National Retail Federation.

Even as credit card debt tops $1.17 trillion, holiday shoppers expect to spend, on average, $1,778, up 8% compared with last year, Deloitte’s holiday retail survey found.

Meanwhile, 28% of holiday shoppers surveyed in September said they still had not paid off the gifts they purchased for their loved ones last year, according to a holiday spending report by NerdWallet, which polled more than 1,700 adults.  

Holiday spending may lead to holiday debt

While most shoppers — 74% — use credit cards to buy holiday gifts, 28% will dip into savings to make their purchases, and 16% will lean on buy now, pay later services, NerdWallet found. Survey respondents could choose multiple payment methods.

Buy now, pay later is one of the fastest-growing categories in consumer finance and is expected to become more popular in the weeks ahead, according to the most recent data from Adobe. Adobe forecasts buy now, pay later spending will peak on Cyber Monday with a new single-day record of $993 million.

However, managing multiple buy now, pay later loans with different payment dates may make it more likely for consumers to get in over their heads, some experts have cautioned — even more than with credit cards, which are simpler to account for, despite sky-high interest rates.

Market Navigator: Buy now, pay later boom

Sometimes, the option to pay in installments can make financial sense, especially at 0% interest, according to Marshall Lux, a senior fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at the Harvard Kennedy School.

“If used properly, it’s great,” Lux said.

“But a lot of people are going to spread out purchases over a longer period of time and then you get into high interest and a cycle of debt,” he said.

The more buy now, pay later accounts consumers have open at once, the more prone they become to overspending, missed or late payments and poor credit history, other research shows.

If a consumer misses a payment, there could be late fees, deferred interest or other penalties, depending on the lender. In some cases, those interest rates can be as high as 30%, rivaling the highest credit card charges. 

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Social Security Fairness Act benefit increases to arrive this spring

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Skynesher | E+ | Getty Images

Lump sum payments to begin arriving in February

In a new update released on Tuesday, the SSA said it will begin issuing retroactive payments in February. Most people will receive the one-time payment by the end of March, according to the agency.

The SSA plans to process the increase to monthly benefits starting in April.

The new timeline “supports President Trump’s priority to implement the Social Security Fairness Act as quickly as possible,” Social Security acting commissioner Lee Dudek said in a statement.

“The agency’s original estimate of taking a year or more now will only apply to complex cases that cannot be processed by automation,” Dudek said. “The American people deserve to get their due benefits as quickly as possible.”

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Among those affected include some teachers, firefighters and police officers in certain states; federal employees who are covered by the Civil Service Retirement System and people who worked under foreign social security systems, according to the Social Security Administration.

What affected beneficiaries should know

Retroactive payments, which most people should receive by the end of March, will be deposited directly into bank accounts on file with the Social Security Administration.

All affected beneficiaries should receive a notice by mail from the Social Security Administration with details about their retroactive payment and new benefit amount. Those notices should come two to three weeks after the retroactive payments, according to the agency.

If your direct deposit information or current mailing address are up to date with the agency, no action is needed, according to the agency. If you want to double check the information the agency has on file, you may sign into your personal online account or call the agency.

If you want to ask about the status of your retroactive payment, the Social Security Administration urges you to hold off until April.

Beneficiaries should also wait until after they have received their April monthly check before contacting the agency to ask about their new benefit amount.

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The average IRS tax refund is 32.4% lower this season. Here’s why

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The average tax refund is 10.4% lower than last year according to the latest Internal Revenue Service data, and inflation is taking more of those dollars.

Bill Oxford | E+ | Getty Images

The average tax refund this year is down 32.4% compared to last year, according to early filing data from the IRS. 

Tax season opened on Jan. 27, and the average refund amount was $2,169 as of Feb. 14, down from $3,207 about one year prior, the IRS reported on Friday. That figure reflects current-year refunds only.

However, the Feb. 14 filing data doesn’t include refunds receiving the earned income tax credit or additional child tax credit, which aren’t issued before mid-February, the IRS noted. The previous year’s filing data included tax returns claiming these credits. The value of these tax breaks can be substantial, even resulting in five-figure refunds, in some cases.

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Typically, you can expect a refund when you overpay taxes throughout the year via paycheck withholdings or quarterly estimated payments. By comparison, there’s generally a tax bill when you haven’t paid enough.

Filing season numbers will ‘even out’

‘Don’t call the IRS’ for refund updates

The latest filing statistics come amid mass layoffs for the agency as Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, continues to cull the federal workforce

It’s unclear exactly how the staffing reduction could impact future taxpayer service. But experts recommend double-checking returns for accuracy to avoid extra touch points with the agency.

“Don’t call the IRS looking for your refund,” said Tom O’Saben, an enrolled agent and director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals. 

You can check the status of your refund via the agency’s “Where’s My Refund?” tool or the IRS2Go app, which is “available 24 hours a day,” O’Saben said.

Typically, the agency issues refunds within 21 days of a return’s receipt. But some returns require “additional review,” which can extend the timeline, according to the IRS.

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Gold prices have spiked in 2025 — what investors need to know

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An attendant holds 1-kilogram gold bars on Feb. 17, 2025.

Akos Stiller/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Gold prices are popping. But investors should avoid the temptation to chase a shiny object, investment experts said.

The SPDR Gold Shares fund (GLD), which tracks the price of gold bullion, is up about 11% in 2025 as of 2 p.m. ET Tuesday. Returns are up about 42% over the past year. (Prices were down more than 1% on Tuesday.)

Gold futures prices are also up about 10% year-to-date and currently 36% higher compared to the price a year ago. 

By comparison, the S&P 500 U.S. stock index is up about 1.5% in 2025 and 17% in the past year.

Lee Baker, a certified financial planner, said he wasn’t getting client calls about gold a year ago. Now, he fields them regularly.

He thinks investors would be wise to remember the classic rule from Warren Buffett, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”

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“It feels to me everyone is starting to get greedy as it pertains to gold,” said Baker, owner and president of Claris Financial Advisors, based in Atlanta, and a member of CNBC’s Advisor Council.

The typical investor shouldn’t have an allocation to gold that exceeds 3% of a diversified portfolio, Baker said.

Investors enticed by lofty returns may make a knee-jerk reaction and buy a big chunk of gold (literally or figuratively) — and, in the process, make the common investment mistake of buying high and selling low, he said.

“If you’re going to make money with gold you need to buy and sell it — and hopefully sell it at right time,” Baker said. “And if you’re getting in now, are you buying at a peak? I don’t know.”

Why gold prices are up

Gold rally driven by countries 'starting to give hesitance' in owning U.S. treasuries: CIO

The sanctions led some central banks — in China, most notably — to buy more gold instead of U.S. Treasury bonds to avoid the potential difficulty of accessing assets denominated in U.S. dollars during a future geopolitical conflict, Samana said.

That has driven up gold demand higher compared to the price a year ago — and prices with it, he said.

“Don’t chase” gold returns, Samana said: “As a whole, you probably want to hold off on precious metals at [current] levels.”

Experts don’t expect gold to continue to shine.

“There’s no reason in my mind gold will continue to have a significant uptrend, barring — and I certainly hope not — some sort of protracted war,” Baker said.

How to invest in gold

Sanshandao Gold mine in Laizhou, Shandong province, China, on Jan. 17, 2025. 

CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images

Similar to Baker, Samana believes it may be okay for investors to hold 1% to 2% of a well-diversified portfolio in gold.

Investors interested in buying gold should consider it as a piece of a broader commodities portfolio, which likely includes allocations to energy, agriculture and base metals like copper alongside precious metals like gold, Samana said.

Wells Fargo’s investment models have an overall commodities allocation that ranges from 2% for conservative investors to 7% for more aggressive growth, he said.

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