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Millennials will spend big this holiday season, TransUnion finds

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Increase in consumer holiday spending expected this year, says Mastercard's Michelle Meyer

Parents tend to splurge on their children during the holidays.

This year, 63% of millennials, many of whom now have school-age children of their own, said they plan to spend the same or more on holiday shopping as they did last year — the highest share of any generation, according to a quarterly report by TransUnion.

Millennials are also more likely to say their income went up over the last few months and that they expect their earnings potential to increase again in the year ahead. TransUnion polled 3,000 adults in October.

“I see a lot of optimism going into the holiday season,” said Charlie Wise, TransUnion’s senior vice president and head of global research and consulting.

For many in this group, recent wage gains have outpaced rising prices and, although the broader unemployment rate has ticked higher, “we are still seeing a steady employment situation,” Wise said. “When people have jobs, that confidence is going to translate into spending.”

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“It’s clear that millennials will play the largest role this holiday shopping season with the greatest expected spend,” Wise said.

Holiday spending between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31 is forecast to increase to a record total of $979.5 billion to $989 billion, according to the National Retail Federation.

Even as credit card debt tops $1.17 trillion, holiday shoppers expect to spend, on average, $1,778, up 8% compared with last year, Deloitte’s holiday retail survey found.

Meanwhile, 28% of holiday shoppers surveyed in September said they still had not paid off the gifts they purchased for their loved ones last year, according to a holiday spending report by NerdWallet, which polled more than 1,700 adults.  

Holiday spending may lead to holiday debt

While most shoppers — 74% — use credit cards to buy holiday gifts, 28% will dip into savings to make their purchases, and 16% will lean on buy now, pay later services, NerdWallet found. Survey respondents could choose multiple payment methods.

Buy now, pay later is one of the fastest-growing categories in consumer finance and is expected to become more popular in the weeks ahead, according to the most recent data from Adobe. Adobe forecasts buy now, pay later spending will peak on Cyber Monday with a new single-day record of $993 million.

However, managing multiple buy now, pay later loans with different payment dates may make it more likely for consumers to get in over their heads, some experts have cautioned — even more than with credit cards, which are simpler to account for, despite sky-high interest rates.

Market Navigator: Buy now, pay later boom

Sometimes, the option to pay in installments can make financial sense, especially at 0% interest, according to Marshall Lux, a senior fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at the Harvard Kennedy School.

“If used properly, it’s great,” Lux said.

“But a lot of people are going to spread out purchases over a longer period of time and then you get into high interest and a cycle of debt,” he said.

The more buy now, pay later accounts consumers have open at once, the more prone they become to overspending, missed or late payments and poor credit history, other research shows.

If a consumer misses a payment, there could be late fees, deferred interest or other penalties, depending on the lender. In some cases, those interest rates can be as high as 30%, rivaling the highest credit card charges. 

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Here’s the 401(k) plan contribution limit for 2025

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Marco Vdm | E+ | Getty Images

If you’re ready to focus on retirement in 2025, early January could be the perfect time to boost your 401(k) plan contributions, financial experts say. 

More than half of American workers feel they are behind on retirement savings, according to a Bankrate survey that polled 2,445 U.S. adults in August.

But starting in 2025, your 401(k) plan has a higher contribution limit — and a special catch-up for older investors — which could help grow your nest egg.

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For 2025, you can defer $23,500 into your 401(k) plan, up from $23,000 in 2024. Investors aged 50 and older can make catch-up contributions of $7,500 on top of the $23,500 limit.

Typically, it takes a couple of paychecks for 401(k) deferral changes to go into effect, according to Boston-area certified financial planner Catherine Valega, founder of Green Bee Advisory.

Boosting your contribution to max out deferrals can be easier earlier in the year because the higher percentage is spread across more paychecks.

Be aggressive with your investments, especially if you have decades until retirement.

Catherine Valega

Founder of Green Bee Advisory

“Be aggressive with your investments, especially if you have decades until retirement,” said Valega, who urges clients to max out their 401(k) plans if possible.

Starting in 2025, there’s also a special catch-up limit for investors aged 60 to 63, thanks to a change enacted via Secure 2.0. Instead of $7,500, this group can save $11,250 for catch-up contributions, which brings their total deferral limit to $34,750 for 2025. 

Invest ‘as much as you feel comfortable’

While many investors aim to max out 401(k) deferrals, it can be difficult with other short-term goals, like paying off debt or buying a home.

To that point, roughly 14% of employees maxed out 401(k) plans in 2023, according to a 2024 Vanguard report, based on data from 1,500 qualified plans and nearly five million participants.

Max contributors were typically older, with higher income and a longer tenure with their current employer, the report found.  

'Hidden' benefits of HSAs: Here's what to know

Ultimately, you should defer “as much as you feel comfortable” not tapping until retirement, said CFP George Gagliardi, founder of Coromandel Wealth Strategies in Lexington, Massachusetts. Otherwise, you could owe a 10% penalty and taxes for early withdrawals, with some exceptions.     

Plus, you need a “sufficient emergency fund” outside of your retirement savings, he said. 

Typically, experts recommend a minimum of three to six months of expenses for an emergency fund, depending on your family’s circumstances.  

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Student loan forgiveness still available after relief plans withdrawn

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While the Biden administration withdrew its plans to forgive student loan debt for millions of people, borrowers should look into the many other existing debt cancellation opportunities, experts say.

The U.S. Department of Education posted notices in the Federal Register in December that it was pulling its wide-scale loan forgiveness plans. The Department cited “operational challenges,” and experts say political difficulties likely also played a role.

Republican-led states have filed lawsuits to stop nearly all of President Joe Biden’s previous efforts at eliminating education debt. Meanwhile, President-elect Donald Trump is a vocal critic of student loan forgiveness, and on the campaign trail called Biden’s attempts “vile” and “not even legal.”

As a result, at least for the foreseeable future, federal student loan holders should not expect a wide-scale debt forgiveness policy, experts said.

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There is good news, however. There are a still a number of more targeted student loan forgiveness programs available to individual borrowers.

Affordable repayment options with forgiveness

The U.S. Department of Education’s income-driven repayment plans can be a great option for borrowers with worries about how to pay their bills and hopes for eventual debt erasure, experts say.

IDR plans set your monthly bill based on your income and family size — and lead to loan forgiveness after a certain period, often 20 years or 25 years.

The Biden administration tried to make available a new IDR plan that would have lowered many borrowers’ payments even further compared with the existing plans, and forgiven the debt sooner.

However, that program, the Saving on a Valuable Education plan, is tied up from GOP-led legal challenges and faces an uncertain fate in the upcoming administration.

Still, there are a number of IDR plans that remain open to borrowers.

Borrowers should first check to see if they qualify for the Pay as You Earn Plan, or PAYE, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

That’s because it tends to be the most affordable option.

For example, your monthly bills can be limited to 10% of your discretionary income and your debt may be wiped out after 20 years. Under the plan, borrowers also make no payments on the first $22,590 of their income as an individual, or $46,800 for a family of four, according to a Dec. 18 press release by the Education Department.

There are several tools available online to help you determine how much your monthly student loan bill would be under different plans.

Federal and state student loan forgiveness

For now, the Education Department still offers a wide range of student loan forgiveness programs, including Public Service Loan Forgiveness and Teacher Loan Forgiveness, experts said.

PSLF allows certain not-for-profit and government employees to have their federal student loans cleared after 10 years of on-time payments. Under TLF, those who teach full-time for five consecutive academic years in a low-income school or educational service agency can be eligible for loan forgiveness of up to $17,500.

At Studentaid.gov, borrowers can search for more federal relief options that remain available.

Meanwhile, The Institute of Student Loan Advisors has a database of student loan forgiveness programs by state.

For example, in California, licensed mental health professionals who work at certain facilities for a set amount of time may be eligible for up to $15,000 in loan assistance.

The Maine Dental Education Loan Repayment Program offers a total of $100,000 in student loan repayment assistance to dentists in underserved areas of the state.

Other state programs may offer forgiveness based on your finances rather than your occupation.

In New York, the Get On Your Feet Loan Forgiveness Program allows certain residents to get up to 24 months of their income-driven repayment plan payments forgiven. Among other qualification requirements, borrowers must have an adjusted gross income of less than $50,000 a year.

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How to rebalance your portfolio after lofty stock returns in 2024

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D3sign | Moment | Getty Images

Stocks soared in 2024.

Congratulations! After taking a victory lap, it may be time to adjust your portfolio — because those heady returns likely threw your investment allocations out of whack.

The S&P 500, a stock index of the largest public U.S. companies by market capitalization, gained 23% in 2024. Cumulative S&P 500 returns over the past two years (53%) were the best since 1997 and 1998.

Long-term investors generally have a target allocation of stocks to bonds — say, 60% stocks and 40% bonds. But lofty returns for stocks relative to muted ones for bonds may mean your portfolio holdings are out of that alignment, and riskier than you’d like. (U.S. bonds returned 1%, as measured by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index.)

This makes it a good time for investors to rebalance their portfolios, financial advisors said.

Markets still in good shape for this year and S&P could reach $7,000 by year end, says Ed Yardeni

Rebalancing brings a portfolio in line with investors’ long-term goals, ensuring they aren’t over or underweighted “inappropriately” in one particular asset class, said Ted Jenkin, a certified financial planner based in Atlanta and member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.

“Every car should get an alignment check in the beginning of the year and this is nothing different with your investment portfolio,” said Jenkin, co-founder of oXYGen Financial.

How to rebalance your portfolio

Here’s a simple example of how portfolio rebalancing works, according to Lori Schock, director of the Securities and Exchange Commission Office of Investor Education and Advocacy.

Let’s say your initial portfolio has an 80/20 mix of stocks to bonds. After a year of market fluctuations, the allocation has changed to 85% stocks and 15% bonds. To return the mix to 80/20, you can consider selling 5% of your stocks and using the proceeds to buy more bonds, Schock said.

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“Set your targets for each investment — how much you’d need to grow your money to be satisfied, and how heavy each investment should be relative to the rest of your portfolio,” said Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management.

“If the allocation gets too big or small, consider buying or selling to get your money back in balance,” she said. “Wall Street portfolio managers do this on a regular schedule. It’s a prudent investing exercise.”

A ‘huge gap in market fortunes’ in 2024

Rebalancing isn’t just about stocks versus bonds. Investors may also be holding other financial assets like cash.

A diversified portfolio also generally includes various categories within asset classes.

An investor’s stock bucket might have large-, mid- and small-cap stocks; value and growth stocks; U.S. and international stocks; and stocks within different sectors like technology, retail and construction, for example.

Boneparth: Allocate 5-10% to sectors like energy or healthcare if you're confident.

Non-U.S. stocks “continued to underperform,” returning about 5% last year, according to experts in Vanguard’s Investment Advisory Research Center.

“Right now, I think it’s smart to review your tech investments and think about taking some profits,” Cox said. “Tech rules our lives, but it doesn’t always rule our portfolios.”

Don’t forget about taxes

Investors in 401(k) plans may have automatic rebalancing tools at their disposal, which can make the exercise simple if investors know their risk tolerance and investment time frames, Jenkin said.

Additionally, investors may have mutual funds or exchange-traded funds whereby professional money managers do the regular rebalancing for them, such as within target-date funds.

When rebalancing, it’s also important to consider tax implications, advisors said.

Investors with taxable accounts might trigger “unnecessary” short- or long-term capital gains taxes if they sell securities to rebalance, Jenkin said. Retirement investors with 401(k) plans and individual retirement accounts generally don’t need to consider such tax consequences, however, he said.

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