Finance
Millions have moved out of certain parts of the country now designated “Climate Abandonment Areas”
Climate change has driven 3.2 million people out of certain areas of the country. (iStock)
More frequent flooding is leaving lasting damage, even as neighborhoods rebuild. Certain areas of the country are being deemed “Climate Abandonment Areas.” These areas are losing a large percentage of their population entirely due to climate change, specifically flooding, according to a First Street report.
Climate Abandonment Areas include 818,000 U.S. Census blocks. Over 3.2 million people have moved away from these areas between 2000 and 2020 due to flooding damage.
“There appears to be clear winners and losers in regard to the impact of flood risk on neighborhood level population change,” Dr. Jeremy Porter, the head of climate implications research at the First Street Foundation, said.
“The downstream implications of this are massive and impact property values, neighborhood composition and commercial viability both positively and negatively.”
In the next 30 years, current Climate Abandonment Areas are expected to lose more of their populations. The populations are expected to decline by an additional 16%, equivalent to 2.5 million more people.
“The population exposure over the next 30 years is a serious concern,” Evelyn Shu, a senior research analyst at the First Street Foundation, said.
“For decades we’ve chosen to build and develop in areas that we believed did not have significant risk, but due to the impacts of climate change, those areas are very rapidly beginning to look like areas we’ve avoided in the past.”
Having enough homeowners insurance is vital to protect you after a natural disaster. To ensure your insurance is suitable for your circumstances, visit Credible to check out plans, providers, and costs.
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California is one of the states struggling most with rising homeowners insurance rates
Of the 50 U.S. states, California is struggling the most with high homeowners insurance rates. Sky-high homeowners insurance rates are due, in part, to natural disasters like wildfires and mudslides.
Citing the high risk and the costs associated with those risks, State Farm recently announced it will not continue to insure homes in certain areas. It’s cutting 72,000 home and commercial insurance policies. These cuts impact around 30,000 homeowners and rental insurance policies specifically.
“We will continue to work constructively with the California Department of Insurance, the Governor’s Office, and policymakers to actively pursue these reforms in order to establish an environment in which insurance rates are better aligned with risk,” the State Farm press release stated.
Starting July 3, 2024, and continuing through the year, State Farm will begin pulling out of the California homeowners insurance market.
The same issue is happening in Florida, where Progressive has begun to pull some of its insurance policies. Starting in May 2024, to “rebalance their exposure”, they’ll stop renewing some policies.
If you want to find a new homeowners insurance provider that offers lower rates, Credible can walk you through each homeowner’s insurance policy, the coverage they offer and show you the rates you may qualify for.
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Homeowners insurance isn’t rising as fast as principal and interest payments
While homeowners insurance rates are definitely on the rise, they’re not rising as much as principal and interest payments on mortgages, a Freddie Mac report found.
The cost of buying a home has skyrocketed over the last few years, largely due to high mortgage rates. That said, homeowners insurance still contributes significantly to the total cost of homeownership.
In 2018, homeowners insurance premiums averaged $1,081 for Freddie Mac borrowers, but in 2023, they averaged $1,522 annually. That’s a 40.8% increase.
Freddie Mac found that in 2018, premiums accounted for 1.49% of borrowers’ incomes. This rose by 10% by 2023 when 1.64% of a borrower’s income went towards monthly premiums.
Certain states pay higher premiums than others. Louisiana, Kansas, Nebraska and Mississippi pay over $8 for every $1,000 in home value. All the while, borrowers from California, Washington, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington, DC all paid less than $2.50 for $1,000, according to the Freddie Mac report.
Comparing multiple insurance quotes can potentially save you hundreds of dollars per year. Luckily, it’s easy to get a free quote in minutes through Credible’s partners.
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U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on “The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress,” at Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., Feb. 11, 2025.
Craig Hudson | Reuters
The popular narrative among Federal Reserve policymakers these days is that policy is “well-positioned” to adjust to any upside or downside risks ahead. However, it might be more accurate to say that policy is stuck in position.
With an abundance of unknowns swirling through the economy and the halls of Washington, the only gear the central bank really can be in these days is neutral as it begins what could be a long wait for certainty on what’s actually ahead.
“In recent weeks, we’ve heard not only enthusiasm — particularly from banks, about possible shifts in tax and regulatory policies — but also widespread apprehension about future trade and immigration policy,” Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said in a blog post. “These crosscurrents inject still more complexity into policymaking.”
Bostic’s comments came during an active week for what is known on Wall Street as “Fedspeak,” or the chatter that happens between policy meetings from Chair Jerome Powell, central bank governors and regional presidents.
Officials who have spoken frequently described policy as “well-positioned” — the language is now a staple of post-meeting statements. But increasingly, they are expressing caution about the volatility coming from President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade and economic agenda, as well as other factors that could influence policy.
“Uncertainty” is an increasingly common theme. In fact, Bostic titled his Thursday blog post “Uncertainty Calls for Caution, Humility in Policymaking.” A day earlier, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee released minutes from the Jan. 28-29 meeting, with a dozen references to the uncertain climate in the document.
The minutes specifically cited “elevated uncertainty regarding the scope, timing, and potential economic effects of possible changes to trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies.”
Uncertainty factors into the Fed’s decision making in two ways: the impact that it has on the employment picture, which has been relatively stable, and inflation, which has been easing but could rise again as consumers and business leaders get spooked about the impact tariffs could have on prices.
Missing the target
The Fed targets inflation at 2%, a goal that has remained elusive for going on four years.
“Right now, I see the risks of inflation staying above target as skewed to the upside,” St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem told reporters Thursday. “My baseline scenario is one where inflation continues to converge towards 2%, providing monetary policy remains modestly restrictive, and that will take time. I think there is a potential for inflation to remain high and activity to slow. … That’s an alternative scenario, not a baseline scenario, but I’m attentive to it.”
The operative in Musalem’s comment is that policy holds at “modestly restrictive,” which is where he considers the current level of the fed funds rate between 4.25%-4.5%. Bostic was a little less explicit on feeling the need to keep rates on hold, but emphasized that “this is no time for complacency” and noted that “additional threats to price stability may emerge.”
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee, thought to be among the least hawkish FOMC members when it comes to inflation, was more measured in his assessment of tariffs and did not offer commentary in separate appearances, including one on CNBC, on where he thinks rates should go.
“If you’re just thinking about tariffs, it depends how many countries are they going to apply to, and how big are they going to be, and the more it looks like a Covid-sized shock, the more nervous you should be,” Goolsbee said.
Many risks ahead
More broadly, though, the January minutes indicated a Fed highly attuned to potential shocks and not interested in testing the waters with any further interest rate moves. The meeting summary pointedly noted that committee members want “further progress on inflation before making additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate.”
There’s also more than just tariffs and inflation to worry about.
The minutes characterized the risks to financial stability as “notable,” specifically in the area of leverage and the level of long-duration debt that banks are holding.
Prominent economist Mark Zandi — not normally an alarmist — said in a panel discussion presented by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation that he worries about dangers to the $46.2 trillion U.S. bond market.
“In my view, the biggest risk is that we see a major sell off in the bond market,” said Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “The bond market feels incredibly fragile to me. The plumbing is broken. The primary dealers aren’t keeping up with the amount of debt outstanding.”
“There’s just so many things coming together that I think there’s a very significant threat that at some point over the next 12 months, we see a major sell-off in the bond market,” he added.
In this climate, he said, there’s scant chance for the Fed to cut rates — though markets are pricing in the potential for a half percentage point in reductions by the end of the year.
That’s wishful thinking considering tariffs and other intangibles hanging over the Fed’s head, Zandi said.
“I just don’t see the Fed cutting interest rates here until you get a better feel about inflation coming back to target,” he said. “The economy came into 2025 in a pretty good spot. Feels like it’s performing well. Should be able to weather a lot of storms. But it feels like there’s a lot of storms coming.”
Walmart stock may be a steal.
Former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon contends the retailer’s stock sell-off tied to a slowing profit growth forecast and tariff fears is creating a major opportunity for investors.
“I absolutely thought their guidance was pretty strong given the fact that… nobody knows what’s going to happen with tariffs,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday, the day Walmart reported fiscal fourth-quarter results.
But even if U.S. tariffs against Canada and Mexico move forward, Simon predicts “nothing” should happen to Walmart.
“Ultimately, the consumer decides whether there’s a tariff or not,” said Simon. “There’s a tariff on avocados from Mexico. Do you have guacamole with your chips or do you have salsa and queso where there is no tariff?”
Plus, Simon, who’s now on the Darden Restaurants board and is the chairman at Hanesbrands, sees Walmart as a nimble retailer.
“The big guys, Walmart, Costco, Target, Amazon… have the supply and the sourcing capability to mitigate tariffs by redirecting the product – bringing it in from different places [and] developing their own private labels,” said Simon. “Those guys will figure out tariffs.”
Walmart shares just saw their worst weekly performance since May 2022 — tumbling almost 9%. The stock price fell more than 6% on its earnings day alone. It was the stock’s worst daily performance since November 2023.
Simon thinks the sell-off is bizarre.
“I thought if you hit your numbers and did well and beat your earnings, things would usually go well for you in the market. But little do we know. You got to have some magic dust,” he said. “I don’t know how you could have done much better for the quarter.”
It’s a departure from his stance last May on “Fast Money” when he warned affluent consumers were creating a “bubble” at Walmart. It came with Walmart shares hitting record highs. He noted historical trends pointed to an eventual shift back to service from convenience and price.
But now Simon thinks the economic and geopolitical backdrop is so unprecedented, higher-income consumers may shop at Walmart permanently.
“If you liked that story yesterday before the earnings release, you should love it today because it’s… cheaper,” said Simon.
Walmart stock is now down 10% from its all-time high hit on Feb. 14. However, it’s still up about 64% over the past 52 weeks.
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