Personal Finance
Money moves to consider ahead of a Fed rate cut
The Federal Reserve could start lowering interest rates as soon as next month, based on the latest inflation data.
“We think that the time is approaching,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference after the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting in July.
For Americans struggling to keep up with sky-high interest charges, a likely September rate cut may bring some welcome relief — even more so with the right planning.
“If you are a consumer, now is the time to say: ‘What does my spending look like? Where would my money grow the most and what options do I have?'” said Leslie Tayne, an attorney specializing in debt relief at Tayne Law in New York and author of “Life & Debt.”
More from Personal Finance:
‘Emotion-proof’ your portfolio ahead of the election
‘Recession pop’ is in: How music hits on economic trends
More Americans are struggling even as inflation cools
Fed officials signaled they expect to reduce the benchmark rate once in 2024 and four times in 2025.
That could bring the benchmark fed funds rate from the current range of 5.25% to 5.50% to below 4% by the end of next year, according to some experts.
The federal funds rate is the one at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. Although that’s not the rate consumers pay, the Fed’s moves still affect the rates they see every day on things such as private student loans and credit cards.
Here are five ways to position your finances for the months ahead:
1. Lock in a high-yield savings rate
Since rates on online savings accounts, money market accounts and certificates of deposit are all poised to go down, experts say this is the time to lock in some of the highest returns in decades.
For now, top-yielding online savings accounts are paying more than 5% — well above the rate of inflation.
Although those rates will fall once the central bank lowers its benchmark, a typical saver with about $8,000 in a checking or savings account could earn an additional $200 a year by moving that money into a high-yield account that earns an interest rate of 2.5% or more, according to a recent survey by Santander Bank in June. The majority of Americans keep their savings in traditional accounts, Santander found, which FDIC data shows are currently paying 0.45%, on average.
Alternatively, “now is a great time to lock in the most competitive CD yields at a level that is well ahead of targeted inflation,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com. “There is no sense in holding out for better returns later.”
Currently, a top-yielding one-year CD pays more than 5.3%, according to Bankrate, as good as a high-yield savings account.
2. Pay down credit card debt
With a rate cut, the prime rate lowers, too, and the interest rates on variable-rate debt — most notably credit cards — are likely to follow, reducing your monthly payments. But even then, APRs will only ease off extremely high levels.
For example, the average interest rate on a new credit card today is nearly 25%, according to LendingTree data. At that rate, if you pay $250 per month on a card with a $5,000 balance, it will cost you more than $1,500 in interest and take 27 months to pay off.
If the central bank cuts rates by a quarter point, you’ll save $21 and be able to pay off the balance one month faster. “That’s not nothing, but it is far less than what you could save with a 0% balance transfer credit card,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.
Rather than wait for a small adjustment in the months ahead, borrowers could switch now to a zero-interest balance transfer credit card or consolidate and pay off high-interest credit cards with a personal loan, Tayne said.
3. Consider the right time to finance a big purchase
If you’re planning a major purchase, like a home or car, then it may pay to wait, since lower interest rates could reduce the cost of financing down the road.
“Timing your purchase to coincide with lower rates can save money over the life of the loan,” Tayne said.
Although mortgage rates are fixed and tied to Treasury yields and the economy, they’ve already started to come down from recent highs, largely due to the prospect of a Fed-induced economic slowdown. The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is now around 6.5%, according to Freddie Mac.
Compared to a recent high of 7.22% in May, today’s lower rate on a $350,000 loan would result in a savings of $171 a month, or $2,052 a year and $61,560 over the lifetime of the loan, according to calculations by Jacob Channel, senior economic analyst at LendingTree.
However, going forward, lower mortgage rates could also boost homebuying demand, which would push prices higher, McBride said. “If lower mortgage rates lead to a surge in prices, that’s going to offset the affordability benefit for would-be buyers.”
What exactly will happen in the housing market “is up in the air” depending on how much mortgage rates decline in the latter half of the year and the level of supply, according to Channel.
“Timing the market is virtually impossible,” he said.
4. Consider the right time to refinance
For those struggling with existing debt, there may be more options for refinancing once rates drop.
Private student loans, for example, tend to have a variable rate tied to the prime, Treasury bill or another rate index, which means once the Fed starts cutting interest rates, the rates on those private student loans will come down as well.
Eventually, borrowers with existing variable-rate private student loans may also be able to refinance into a less expensive fixed-rate loan, according to higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.
Currently, the fixed rates on a private refinance are as low as 5% and as high as 11%, he said.
However, refinancing a federal loan into a private student loan will forgo the safety nets that come with federal loans, he added, “such as deferments, forbearances, income-driven repayment and loan forgiveness and discharge options.” Additionally, extending the term of the loan means you ultimately will pay more interest on the balance.
Be mindful of potential loan -term extensions, cautioned David Peters, founder of Peters Professional Education in Richmond, Virginia. “Consider maintaining your original payment after refinancing to shave as much principal off as possible without changing your out-of-pocket cash flow,” he said.
Similar considerations may also apply for home and auto loan refinancing opportunities, depending in part on your existing rate.
5. Perfect your credit score
Those with better credit could already qualify for a lower interest rate.
When it comes to auto loans, for instance, there’s no question inflation has hit financing costs — and vehicle prices — hard. The average rate on a five-year new car loan is now nearly 8%, according to Bankrate.
But in this case, “the financing is one variable, and it’s frankly one of the smaller variables,” McBride said. For example, a reduction of a quarter percentage point in rates on a $35,000, five-year loan is $4 a month, he calculated.
Here, and in many other situations, as well, consumers would benefit more from paying down revolving debt and improving their credit scores, which could pave the way to even better loan terms, McBride said.
Fg Trade | E+ | Getty Images
Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan raised its odds for a U.S. and global recession to 60%, by year end, up from 40% previously.
“Disruptive U.S. policies has been recognized as the biggest risk to the global outlook all year,” J.P. Morgan strategists said in a research note on Thursday.
Allianz’s Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian also warned on Friday that the risk of a U.S. recession “has become uncomfortably high.”
‘There is some nervous energy’
“There is some nervous energy there,” said certified financial planner Douglas Boneparth, president of Bone Fide Wealth in New York, of the conversations he is having with his clients.
Even though stocks took a beating on Friday, “we advise them to focus on fundamentals and what they can control, which means maintaining a strong cash reserve and discipline around cash flow so that they can stay in the market and feel confident about taking advantage of buying opportunities,” said Boneparth, a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council.
More from Personal Finance:
Tariffs are ‘lose-lose’ for U.S. jobs and industry
Why uncertainty makes the stock market go haywire
Americans are suffering from ‘sticker shock’ — how to adjust
Recession or not, maintaining a consistent cash flow and investment strategy is key, other experts say.
“The best way to manage these moments is to maximize your current and future selves is to block out noise that doesn’t apply to your plan,” said CFP Preston Cherry, founder and president of Concurrent Financial Planning in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
Letting emotions get in the way is one of “the greatest threats to life and money plans,” said Cherry, who is also a member of the CNBC Advisor Council.
When it comes to volatility tolerance, sharp drops in the market are to be expected, the advisors say.
“The stock market is unpredictable, but historically, there’s a trend in how the market recovers,” Cherry said.
“In years with market corrections and pullbacks, these are the worst days, which are followed by the best days,” he added.
In fact, the 10 best trading days by percentage gain for the S&P 500 over the past three decades all occurred during recessions, often in close proximity to the worst days, according to a Wells Fargo analysis published last year.
“Being out of the market and missing the best days and cycles after recessions significantly hurt portfolios in the long run,” Cherry said.
Boneparth said his clients also “know volatility and uncertainty is part of the game and, most importantly, know not to sell into chaos.”
Jamie Grill | Getty Images
As U.S. markets continue to suffer steep declines in the wake of the Trump administration’s new tariff policies, you may be wondering what the next best move is when it comes to your retirement portfolio and other investments.
Behavioral finance experts warn now is the worst time to make any drastic moves.
“It is dangerous for you — unless you can read what is going to happen next in the political world, in the economic world — to make a decision,” said Meir Statman, a professor of finance at Santa Clara University.
“It is more likely to be driven by emotion and, in this case, emotion that is going to act against you rather than for you,” said Statman, who is author of the book, “A Wealth of Well-Being: A Holistic Approach to Behavioral Finance.”
More from Personal Finance:
Tariffs are ‘lose-lose’ for U.S. jobs and industry
Why uncertainty makes the stock market go haywire
Americans are suffering from ‘sticker shock’ — how to adjust
That may sound easier said than done when headlines show stocks are sliding into bear market territory while J.P. Morgan is raising the chances of a recession this year to 60% from 40%.
“When the market drops, we have sort of a herd instinct,” said Bradley Klontz, a psychologist, certified financial planner and managing principal of YMW Advisors in Boulder, Colorado. Klontz is also a member of the CNBC FA Council.
That survival instinct to run towards safety and away from danger dates back to humans’ hunter gatherer days, Klontz said. Back then, following those cues was necessary for survival.
But when it comes to investing, those impulses can backfire, he said.
“It’s an internal panic, and we’re just sort of wired to sell at the absolute worst times,” Klontz said.
‘Never trust your instincts when it comes to investing’
When conditions are stressful, our frame of reference narrows to today, tomorrow and what’s going to happen, Klontz said.
It may be tempting to come up with a story for why taking action now makes sense, Klontz said.
“Never trust your instincts when it comes to investing,” said Klontz, particularly when you’re excited or scared.
Meanwhile, many investors are likely in a fight or flight response mode now, said Danielle Labotka, behavioral scientist at Morningstar.
“The problem with that, in acting right away, is that we’re going to be relying on what we call fast thinking,” Labotka said.
Instead, investors would be wise to slow down, she said.
Just as grief requires moving through emotional stages in order to eventually feel good, it’s impossible to jump to a good investing decision, Labotka said.
Good investment decisions take time, she said.
What should be guiding your decisions now
Many investors have experienced market drops before, whether it be during the Covid pandemic, the financial crisis of 2008 or the dot-com bust.
Even though we’ve experienced volatility before, it feels different every time, Labotka said.
That can make it difficult to heed to the advice to stay the course, she said.
Investors would be wise to ask themselves whether their reasons for investing and the goals they’re trying to achieve have changed, experts say.
“Even though the markets have changed, why you’re invested, your values and your goals probably haven’t,” Labotka said. “These are the things that should be guiding your investments.”
While there is the notion that life well-being is based on financial well-being, it helps to take a broader view, Statman said.
At any moment, no one has everything perfect when it comes to their finances, family and health. In life, as in an investment portfolio, all stocks don’t necessarily go up, and it’s helpful to learn to live with the good and the bad, he said.
“Things are never perfect for anyone,” Statman said.
IRS employee union requests emergency relief
Estate planning for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expiration
As recession risk jumps, top financial pros share their best advice
New 2023 K-1 instructions stir the CAMT pot for partnerships and corporations
The Essential Practice of Bank and Credit Card Statement Reconciliation
Are American progressives making themselves sad?
-
Economics1 week agoPCE inflation February 2025:
-
Economics1 week agoYoung Americans are losing confidence in economy, and it shows online
-
Personal Finance1 week agoStudent loans could be managed by the Small Business Administration
-
Accounting1 week agoIRS sets new initiative with banks to uncover fraud
-
Economics1 week agoWhite House denials over the Signal snafu ring hollow
-
Economics1 week agoConsumer sentiment worsens as inflation fears grow, University of Michigan survey shows
-
Economics1 week agoTexas troopers are in more and more lethal car chases
-
Personal Finance1 week agoMillions of student loan borrowers past-due after bills restarted: Fed