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More Americans leaving San Francisco, New York due to affordability concerns

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The exodus from major cities in states run by Democrats continues.

A growing number of Americans are migrating from predominantly blue cities like San Francisco and New York, according to a Bank of America analyst note that is based on aggregated and anonymous internal customer data.

In the three-month period from April to June, there were “large population declines” in many Northeastern and Western cities, continuing a long-term trend that began during the pandemic. 

New York and Boston saw the largest net population outflows in the Northeast, while San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle and Portland, Oregon, saw the largest drops in the West. 

WALL STREET’S FEAR GAUGE SPIKES TO HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2020 AS GLOBAL TURMOIL DEEPENS

New York and California have some of the highest tax burdens in the country. San Francisco has also been plagued by a spike in property-related crime, according to the California Department of Justice’s Criminal Justice Statistics Center.

A truck is parked in front of a U-Haul facility on Aug. 31, 2020, in New York City. (John Lamparski/Getty Images / Getty Images)

Among the top 23 major metropolitan areas in the country, Columbus, Ohio, saw the biggest influx of people during the second quarter of 2024. That was followed by Austin, Texas; Las Vegas; San Antonio, Texas; and Jacksonville, Florida.

Texas, Florida and Nevada do not have a state income tax.

RECESSION FEARS, MARKET SELL-OFF RAISE ODDS OF A BIGGER FED RATE CUT

Still, the findings from Bank of America also show that fewer households are moving between cities, likely due to the increased “hidden” costs of homeownership. Homeowners’ insurance and property taxes are among the “hidden” costs that have spiked in recent years, particularly in the Sun Belt. 

Gen Z and lower-income households were more likely to relocate in the second quarter, likely due to financial necessity rather than choice, the report said. 

Austin, Texas downtown

A view of downtown Austin, Texas. (iStock / iStock)

“In our view, the current level of inter-city moves is being held back by the ‘hidden’ costs of homeownership, alongside more overt costs such as higher mortgage rates,” the report said. “At the same time, Gen Z and those on lower incomes, particularly renters, are continuing to move.”

Affordability and cost-of-living are most likely the top reasons behind younger Americans and lower-income households moving. 

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“It’s also important to note that it’s easier for younger and lower-income households to change addresses because a greater proportion of these consumers are renters rather than homeowners,” the report said. The homeownership rate is just 35% for Americans ages 25 to 30, compared to a 66% rate across all ages.

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These are 3 big things we’re watching in the stock market this week

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A security guard works outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) before the Federal Reserve announcement in New York City, U.S., September 18, 2024. 

Andrew Kelly | Reuters

The stock market bounce last week showed once again just how dependent Wall Street has become on the whims of the White House.

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These U.S. consumer stocks face higher China risks

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Apple iPhone assembly in India won’t cushion China tariffs: Moffett

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Street's biggest Apple bear says a production move to India is unrealistic

Leading analyst Craig Moffett suggests any plans to move U.S. iPhone assembly to India is unrealistic.

Moffett, ranked as a top analyst multiple times by Institutional Investor, sent a memo to clients on Friday after the Financial Times reported Apple was aiming to shift production toward India from China by the end of next year.

He’s questioning how a move could bring down costs tied to tariffs because the iPhone components would still be made in China.

“You have a tremendous menu of problems created by tariffs, and moving to India doesn’t solve all the problems. Now granted, it helps to some degree,” the MoffettNathanson partner and senior managing director told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Friday. “I would question how that’s going to work.”

Moffett contends it’s not so easy to diversify to India — telling clients Apple’s supply chain would still be anchored in China and would likely face resistance.

“The bottom line is a global trade war is a two-front battle, impacting costs and sales. Moving assembly to India might (and we emphasize might) help with the former. The latter may ultimately be the bigger issue,” he wrote to clients.

Moffett cut his Apple price target on Monday to $141 from $184 a share. It implies a 33% drop from Friday’s close. The price target is also the Street low, according to FactSet.

“I don’t think of myself as the biggest Apple bear,” he said. “I think quite highly of Apple. My concern about Apple has been the valuation more than the company.”

Moffett has had a “sell” rating on Apple since Jan. 7. Since then, the company’s shares are down about 14%.

“None of this is because Apple is a bad company. They still have a great balance sheet [and] a great consumer franchise,” he said. “It’s just the reality of there are no good answers when you are a product company, and your products are going to be significantly tariffed, and you’re heading into a market that is likely to have at least some deceleration in consumer demand because of the macro economy.”

Moffett notes Apple also isn’t getting help from its carriers to cushion the blow of tariffs.

“You also have the demand destruction that’s created by potentially higher prices. Remember, you had AT&T, Verizon and T. Mobile all this week come out and say we’re not going to underwrite the additional cost of tariff [on] handsets,” he added. “The consumer is going to have to pay for that. So, you’re going to have some demand destruction that’s going to show up in even longer holding periods and slower upgrade rates — all of which probably trims estimates next year’s consensus.”

According to Moffett, the backlash against Apple in China over U.S. tariffs will also hurt iPhone sales.

“It’s a very real problem,” Moffett said. “Volumes are really going to the Huaweis and the Vivos and the local competitors in China rather than to Apple.”

Apple stock is coming off a winning week — up more than 6%. It comes ahead of the iPhone maker’s quarterly earnings report due next Thursday after the market close.

To get more personalized investment strategies, join us for our next “Fast Money” Live event on Thursday, June 5, at the Nasdaq in Times Square.

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