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Mortgage rates dropped this week, but mortgage applications also declined

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Mortgage rates dropped to 6.79% for 30-year mortgages. (iStock)

Mortgage rates continued their slight decline this week, Freddie Mac reported. For 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, the average interest rate is 6.79%, down from last week’s average of 6.87%.

Last year at this time, mortgage rates for 30-year mortgages averaged closer to the bottom of the 6% range at 6.35%.

“Mortgage rates moved slightly lower this week, providing a bit more room in the budgets of some prospective homebuyers,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist, said.

“We also are seeing encouraging data on existing home sales, which reflects improving inventory. Regardless, rates remain elevated near seven percent as markets watch for signs of cooling inflation, hoping that rates will come down further.”

For 15-year mortgages, rates have also dropped since last week and now average 6.11% for fixed-rate mortgages. This is higher than last year’s average of 5.56%.

If you’re looking to purchase a home in today’s market, you can explore your mortgage options by visiting Credible where you can compare rates and lenders with a click of a button.

BIDEN WANTS TO GIVE HOMEBUYERS $400 PER MONTH: STATE OF THE UNION

Mortgage applications stalled this week

While rates are dropping, buyers aren’t yet fully committed to buying. Mortgage applications decreased 0.7% from a week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey.

Compared to a year ago, MBA’s unadjusted Purchase Index was 16% lower, signaling a struggle to keep buyers in the market.

“Mortgage application activity was muted last week despite slightly lower mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed rate edged lower…but that was not enough to stimulate borrower demand,” Joel Kan, the MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, said.

“Purchase applications were essentially unchanged, as homebuyers continue to hold out for lower mortgage rates and for more listings to hit the market.”

Earlier in the year, it was predicted that rates would finally drop below 6%, which is now unlikely at this point.

“Lower rates should help to free up additional inventory as the lock-in effect is reduced, but we expect that will only take place gradually… Similarly, with rates remaining elevated, there is very little incentive right now for rate/term refinances,” Kan said.

Looking to get a mortgage? Credible can help you compare multiple mortgage lenders at once.

HOMEBUYERS GAINED THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS AS MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES FALL: REDFIN

It’s cheaper to rent than buy in all 50 major metro areas in the U.S.

It’s officially become cheaper to rent than to buy in many of the country’s major metro areas. A recent report from Realtor.com revealed that a starter home is more affordable than buying one in the 50 largest metros.

In February 2024, the average monthly cost of buying a starter home was $1,027, which is 60.1% higher than the average cost of renting.

Although the rental market appears hot, the U.S. median rent declined year-over-year, according to Realtor.com. For studio to two-bedroom units, rent declined 0.4% within the top 50 metros. This is the seventh month in a row that rent has declined.

One of the top markets where it’s more affordable to rent is in Austin, Texas. The cost of buying a home in Austin averaged $3,695 per month, 141.5% more than the average monthly rent. Renting in Austin costs $1,530 per month, on average.

Seattle is another area where buying is more expensive than renting. The average cost to buy is $4,422 while the average renter pays $2,000 per month.

If you think you’re ready to shop around for a home loan, consider using Credible to help you easily compare interest rates from multiple lenders and get a pre-approval letter in minutes.

HIGH HOMEOWNERS INSURANCE RATES SCARING AWAY FLORIDA HOMEBUYERS, OTHER STATES FACE THE SAME ISSUE

Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

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India may have fastest growing e-commerce sector

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India: the "perfect" emerging market

Investors may want to consider adding exposure to the world’s second-largest emerging market.

According to EMQQ Global founder Kevin Carter, India’s technology sector is extremely attractive right now.

“It’s the tip of the spear of growth [in e-commerce] … not just in emerging markets, but on the planet,” Carter told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. 

His firm is behind the INQQ The India Internet ETF, which was launched in 2022. The India Internet ETF is up almost 21% so far this year, as of Friday’s close.

‘DoorDash of India’

One of Carter’s top plays is Zomato, which he calls “the DoorDash of India.” Zomato stock is up 128% this year.

“One of the reasons Zomato has done so well this year is because the quick commerce business blanket has exceeded expectations,” Carter said. “It now looks like it’s going to be the biggest business at Zomato.”

Carter noted his bullishness comes from a population that is just starting to go online.

“They’re getting their first-ever computer today basically,” he said, “You’re giving billions of people super computers in their pocket internet access.”

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How the Federal Reserve’s rate policy affects mortgages

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The Federal Reserve lowered its interest rate target three times in 2024.

This has many Americans waiting for mortgage rates to fall. But that may not happen for some time.

“I think the best case scenario is we’re going to continue to see mortgage rates hover around six and a half to 7%,” said Jordan Jackson, a global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “So unfortunately for those homeowners who are looking for a bit of a reprieve on the mortgage rate side, that may not come to fruition,” Jordan said in an interview with CNBC.

Mortgage rates can be influenced by Fed policy. But the rates are more closely tied to long-term borrowing rates for government debt. The 10-year Treasury note yield has been increasing in recent months as investors consider more expansionary fiscal policies that may come from Washington in 2025. This, combined with signals sent from the market for mortgage-backed securities, determine the rates issued within new mortgages.

Economists at Fannie Mae say the Fed’s management of its mortgage-backed securities portfolio may contribute to today’s mortgage rates.

In the pandemic, the Fed bought huge amounts of assets, including mortgage-backed securities, to adjust demand and supply dynamics within the bond market. Economists also refer to the technique as “quantitative easing.”

Quantitative easing can reduce the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields, which leads to cheaper loan terms for home buyers. It can also provide opportunities for owners looking to refinance their mortgages. The Fed’s use of this technique in the pandemic brought mortgages rates to record lows in 2021.

“They were extra aggressive in 2021 with buying mortgage-backed securities. So, the [quantitative easing] was probably ill-advised at the time.” said Matthew Graham, COO of Mortgage News Daily.

In 2022, the Federal Reserve kicked off plans to reduce the balance of its holdings, primarily by allowing those assets to mature and “roll-off” of its balance sheet. This process is known as “quantitative tightening,” and it may add upward pressure on the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields.

“I think that’s one of the reasons the mortgage rates are still going in the wrong direction from the Federal Reserve’s standpoint,” said George Calhoun, director of the Hanlon Financial Systems Center at Stevens Institute of Technology.

Watch the video above to learn how the Fed’s decisions affect mortgage rates.

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Fintechs are 2024’s biggest gainers among financials

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Jason Wilk

Source: Jason Wilk

Jason Wilk, the CEO of digital banking service Dave, remembers the absolute low point in his brief career as head of a publicly-traded firm.

It was June 2023, and shares of his company had recently dipped below $5 apiece. Desperate to keep Dave afloat, Wilk found himself at a Los Angeles conference for micro-cap stocks, where he pitched investors on tiny $5,000 stakes in his firm.

“I’m not going to lie, this was probably the hardest time of my life,” Wilk told CNBC. “To go from being a $5 billion company to $50 million in 12 months, it was so freaking hard.”

But in the months that followed, Dave turned profitable and consistently topped Wall Street analyst expectations for revenue and profit. Now, Wilk’s company is the top gainer for 2024 among U.S. financial stocks, with a 934% year-to-date surge through Thursday.

The fintech firm, which makes money by extending small loans to cash-strapped Americans, is emblematic of a larger shift that’s still in its early stages, according to JMP Securities analyst Devin Ryan.

Investors had dumped high-flying fintech companies in 2022 as a wave of unprofitable firms like Dave went public via special purpose acquisition companies. The environment turned suddenly, from rewarding growth at any cost to deep skepticism of how money-losing firms would navigate rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve battled inflation.

Now, with the Fed easing rates, investors have rushed back into financial firms of all sizes, including alternative asset managers like KKR and credit card companies like American Express, the top performers among financial stocks this year with market caps of at least $100 billion and $200 billion, respectively.

Big investment banks including Goldman Sachs, the top gainer among the six largest U.S. banks, have also surged this year on hope for a rebound in Wall Street deals activity.

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Dave, a fintech firm taking on big banks like JPMorgan Chase, is a standout stock this year.

But it’s fintech firms like Dave and Robinhood, the commission-free trading app, that are the most promising heading into next year, Ryan said.

Robinhood, whose shares have surged 190% this year, is the top gainer among financial firms with a market cap of at least $10 billion.

“Both Dave and Robinhood went from losing money to being incredibly profitable firms,” Ryan said. “They’ve gotten their house in order by growing their revenues at an accelerating rate while managing expenses at the same time.”

While Ryan views valuations for investment banks and alternative asset manages as approaching “stretched” levels, he said that “fintechs still have a long way to run; they are early in their journey.”

Financials broadly had already begun benefitting from the Fed easing cycle when the election victory of Donald Trump last month intensified interest in the sector. Investors expect Trump will ease regulation and allow for more innovation with government appointments including ex-PayPal executive and Silicon Valley investor David Sacks as AI and crypto czar.

Those expectations have boosted the shares of entrenched players like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, but have had a greater impact on potential disruptors like Dave that could see even more upside from a looser regulatory environment.

Gas & groceries

Dave has built a niche among Americans underserved by traditional banks by offering fee-free checking and savings accounts.

It makes money mostly by extending small loans of around $180 each to help users “pay for gas and groceries” until their next paycheck, according to Wilk; Dave makes roughly $9 per loan on average.

Customers come out ahead by avoiding more expensive forms of credit from other institutions, including $35 overdraft fees charged by banks, he said. Dave, which is not a bank, but partners with one, does not charge late fees or interest on cash advances.

The company also offers a debit card, and interchange fees from transactions made by Dave customers will make up an increasing share of revenue, Wilk said.

While the fintech firm faces far less skepticism now than it did in mid-2023— of the seven analysts who track it, all rate the stock a “buy,” according to Factset — Wilk said the company still has more to prove.

“Our business is so much better now than we went public, but it’s still priced 60% below the IPO price,” he said. “Hopefully we can claw our way back.”

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