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New Zealand signs trade deal with the UAE

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Cattle photographed in New Zealand. Agriculture plays a major role in New Zealand’s economy, especially when it comes to exports.

David Clapp | Stone | Getty Images

New Zealand’s prime minister told CNBC the country has to look beyond its own backyard for trade opportunities, as the South Pacific island nation signs an economic partnership with the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The free trade agreement, known formally as the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), is seen by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon as a chance to expand bilateral trade between the countries and makes the UAE one of the island’s largest markets in the Middle East.

“We’ve had a long-standing relationship over 40 years of diplomatic recognition, and really the chance now for us is to deepen and to broaden the economic relationship,” Luxon told CNBC Monday.

“That’s why the signing of the CEPA and also the bilateral investment treaty is really important, because actually these are two small advanced economies in the world that actually have a lot in common and a
lot of common values, and we want to be able to work together and build out that relationship.”

New Zealand’s key exports to the UAE include dairy, industrial products, meat, horticultural products and travel services, the government said as it announced the deal. The agreement, expected to come into force later this year, comes as the government aims to double the value of exports in 10 years. It said the CEPA will mean that 99% of New Zealand goods exporters are able to access the UAE market duty free.

“This includes all New Zealand’s dairy, red meat, horticultural and industrial products immediately when the Agreement enters into force,” it noted. 

“One in four of our jobs in New Zealand are tied very much to trade,” Luxon, head of the center-right New Zealand National Party who’s been in power since late 2023, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy in Abu Dhabi Monday.

“When you see a New Zealand company that’s exporting out to the world, it’s able to pay its workers
7% higher salaries and wages, and they’re often our more productive companies. The message to people at home is that they understand that we are a trading nation. We don’t get rich just selling stuff to each other in the South Pacific or within New Zealand,” he said.

“We actually need to send out great products and services out into the world, of which there’s huge demand for, and make sure we open up new markets like the Middle East to actually get those products too. In doing that, we bring more money back at home, and that, obviously, is the way in which we can afford better public services like health and education,” Luxon added.

New Zealand is in need of an economic boost after its economy contracted last year and entered recession territory in the third quarter. The economy shrunk by 1% in the July-September quarter, data released in December showed.

The fall followed a 1.1% contraction in the previous quarter. Two straight quarters of negative growth is widely considered a technical recession.

WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND – NOVEMBER 03: Incoming Prime Minister and National Party leader Christopher Luxon speaks during a media stand-up at Parliament on November 03, 2023 in Wellington, New Zealand. Special votes cast overseas and by mail were certified on Friday, finally sealing the results of New Zealand’s general elections. The Labour party was soundly defeated by the National Party, led by Christopher Luxon, winning the most votes. National will however need the support of both ACT and NZ First parties to form the next coalition Government. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)

Hagen Hopkins | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Luxon said there was no doubt that the past three years had been “a very challenging time” for the country, but said inflation, at 2.2% in October, was under control and interest rates were coming down. The country’s central bank has flagged that further easing is to come at its next meeting on Feb. 19.

“We’ve got business confidence at a 10-year high. We’ve got consumer confidence at a three-year high. We’ve got farmer confidence the highest it’s been since 2017 so we know we’ve got the conditions that people are believing there’s a better future,” he added.

“Now we’ve got to convert and really drive into growth, and that’s where these stronger international trading connections are, but also encouraging inbound investment to New Zealand as well.”

Asked how he felt about Donald Trump returning to power in the U.S., and the possibility of tariffs on exports to the States as the president-elect has widely signaled (with a potential universal tariff of 10% or 20% on all goods imported to the U.S.), Luxon said he was in “wait-and-see” mode.

“We’re going to work well with whichever Administration the Americans select, and they’ve
selected Donald Trump and the Republican Administration. And I’ve got every confidence we’ll work very constructively with them. We’ll have to wait and see as to what is the tariff policy in terms of how it actually does get played out, or what gets played out,” he said.

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China targets U.S. services and other areas after decrying ‘meaningless’ tariff hikes on goods

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Dilara Irem Sancar | Anadolu | Getty Images

China last week announced it was done retaliating against U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, saying any further increases by the U.S. would be a “joke,” and Beijing would “ignore” them.

Instead of continuing to focus on tariffing goods, however, China has chosen to resort to other measures, including steps targeting the American services sector.

Trump has jacked up U.S. levies on select goods from China by up to 245% after several rounds of tit-for-tat measures with Beijing in recent weeks. Before calling it a “meaningless numbers game,” China last week imposed additional duties on imports from the U.S. of up to 125%.

While the Trump administration has largely focused on pressing ahead on his tariff plans, Beijing has rolled out a series of non-tariff restrictive measures including widening export controls of rare-earth minerals and opening antitrust probes into American companies, such as pharmaceutical giant DuPont and IT major Google.

Before the latest escalation, in February Beijing had put dozens of U.S. businesses on a so-called “unreliable entity” list, which would restrict or ban firms from trading with or investing in China. American firms such as PVH, the parent company of Tommy Hilfiger, and Illumina, a gene-sequencing equipment provider, were among those added to the list.

Its tightening of exports of critical mineral elements will require Chinese companies to secure special licenses for exporting these resources, effectively restricting U.S. access to the key minerals needed for semiconductors, missile-defense systems and solar cells.

In its latest move on Tuesday, Beijing went after Boeing — America’s largest exporter — by ordering Chinese airlines not to take any further deliveries for its jets and requested carriers to halt any purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from U.S. companies, according to Bloomberg.

Having deliveries to China cut off will add to the cash-strapped plane maker’s troubles, as it struggles with a lingering quality-control crisis.

In another sign of growing hostilities, Chinese police issued notices for apprehending three people they claimed to have engaged in cyberattacks against China on behalf of the U.S. National Security Agency.

Chinese state media, which published the notice, urged domestic users and companies to avoid using American technology and replace them with domestic alternatives.

“Beijing is clearly signaling to Washington that two can play in this retaliation game and that it has many levers to pull, all creating different levels of pain for U.S. companies,” said Wendy Cutler, vice president at Asia Society Policy Institute.

“With high tariffs and other restrictions in place, the decoupling of the two economies is at full steam,” Cutler said.

Targeting trade in services

China is seen by some as seeking to broaden the trade war to encompass services trade — which covers travel, legal, consulting and financial services — where the U.S. has been running a significant surplus with China for years.

China Beige Book CEO: U.S. needs to articulate what they want from China

Earlier this month, a social media account affiliated with Chinese state media Xinhua News Agency, suggested Beijing could impose curbs on U.S. legal consultancy firms and consider a probe into U.S. companies’ China operations for the huge “monopoly benefits” they have gained from intellectual-property rights.

China’s imports of U.S. services surged more than 10-fold to $55 billion in 2024 over the past two decades, according to Nomura estimates, driving U.S. services trade surplus with China to $32 billion last year.

Last week, China said it would reduce imports of U.S. films and warned its citizens against traveling or studying in the U.S., in a sign of Beijing’s intent to put pressure on the U.S. entertainment, tourism and education sectors.

“These measures target high-visibility sectors — aviation, media, and education — that resonate politically in the U.S.,” said Jing Qian, managing director at Center for China Analysis.

While they might be low on actual dollar impact given the smaller scale of these sectors, “reputational effects — such as fewer Chinese students or more cautious Chinese employees — could ripple through academia and the tech talent ecosystem,” he added.

Nomura estimates $24 billion could be at stake if Beijing significantly step up restrictions on travel to the U.S.

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Travel dominated U.S. services exports to China, reflecting expenditure by millions of Chinese tourists in the U.S., according to Nomura. Within travel, education-related spending leads at 71%, it estimates, mostly coming from tuition and living expenses for the more than 270,000 Chinese students studying in the U.S.

Entertainment exports, encompassing films, music and television programs, accounted for just 6% of U.S. exports within this sector, the investment firm said, noting that Beijing’s latest move on film imports “carries more symbolic heft than economic bite.”

“We could see deeper decoupling — not only in supply chains, but in people-to-people ties, knowledge exchange, and regulatory frameworks. This may signal a shift from transactional tension to systemic divergence,” said Qian.

Can Beijing get more aggressive?

Analysts largely expect Beijing to continue deploying its arsenal of non-tariff policy tools in an effort to raise its leverage ahead of any potential negotiation with the Trump administration.

“From the Chinese government’s perspective, the U.S. companies’ operations in China are the biggest remaining target for inflicting pain on the U.S .side,” said Gabriel Wildau, managing director at risk advisory firm Teneo.

Apple, Tesla, pharmaceutical and medical device companies are among the businesses that could be targeted as Beijing presses ahead with non-tariff measures, including sanction, regulatory harassment and export controls, Wildau added.

Shoppers and staff are seen inside the Apple Store, with its sleek modern interior design and prominent Apple logo, in Chongqing, China, on Sept. 10, 2024.

Cheng Xin | Getty Images

While a deal may allow both sides to unwind some of the retaliatory measures, hopes for near-term talks between the two leaders are fading fast.

Chinese officials have repeatedly condemned the “unilateral tariffs” imposed by Trump as “bullying” and vowed to “fight to the end.” Still, Beijing has left the door open for negotiations but they must be on “an equal footing.”

On Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump is open to making a deal with China but Beijing needs to make the first move.

“In the end, only when a country experiences sufficient self-inflicted harm might it consider softening its stance and truly returning to the negotiation table,” said Jianwei Xu, economist at Natixis.

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