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NewJeans, Hybe and Coachella shows to lead turnaround in Kpop

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CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – AUGUST 03: (L – R) Danielle, Hyein, Hanni, Minji and Haerin of NewJeans perform in concert during Lollapalooza at Grant Park on August 03, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois.

Gary Miller | Filmmagic | Getty Images

It hasn’t been an easy start to the year for investors in the K-pop sector as lower fourth-quarter sales and profits, as well as dating scandals, hit stock prices.

Goldman Sachs, however, expressed optimism for the industry in a March 14 report, saying the K-pop sector is “misunderstood.”

Shares of K-pop’s “big four” companies have all fallen since the start of the year. JYP Entertainment’s stock has plunged over 37% year to date, while YG Entertainment shed nearly 17%. Kospi-listed Hybe, home of superstars BTS, saw a smaller drop of about 4.5%.

Shares of SM Entertainment have plunged over 17%. The decline comes as one of the agency’s artists was embroiled in a dating scandal that drew widespread international and domestic coverage.

In February, the stock fell for five straight sessions to its lowest level since October 2022 following the drama surrounding Karina, the leader of girl group Aespa. The sell-off wiped $50 million off SM’s market value as Chinese fans threatened to boycott the group’s albums.

Nonetheless, Goldman Sachs said it sees a “high potential for valuation re-rating,” as companies still continue to deliver multi-year earnings growth. For 2023, all four companies posted higher full-year revenue and net profits.

A superior valuation metric

Goldman said the sell-off is tied to markets focusing on album sales, which has historically been considered a key proxy for the number of fans and, by extension, prospects for the companies.

“We challenge this mainstream mindset, arguing that offline concert audience… is the superior metric to measure the growing reach of K-pop,” the analysts wrote. They explained album sales can be tainted by wallet share, where one fan can buy multiple albums — a common occurrence among the K-pop fanbase.

The analysts also said album sales spiked during the pandemic due to the lack of offline interactions, which distorted the metric in relation to fans.

Japan to power short-term growth

When evaluating the industry by in-person concert attendance, Goldman said “growth has not stopped scaling at a rapid pace,” and “in the near term, we see audience growth in Japan as the key growth driver.”

The analysts see a substantial fanbase growth opportunity for K-pop companies in the near-term in Japan, “which we believe is being overlooked by the market.”

Hybe is the only company that has successfully developed its IP diversification in K-pop: Analyst

They note Japan has been one of the largest overseas fanbases for K-pop, with Hybe, SM and JYP taking a combined 7% of the live music market in Japan. Goldman pointed out that Japan’s top talent agency Johnny & Associates has been mired in a major scandal, leading to the industry turning more favorable to K-pop artists.

In 2023, Kouhaku Uta Gassen, the largest music show in Japan, invited five K-pop artists and two localized groups produced by K-pop companies. It was the first time the show has featured male K-pop artists since 2011 and the largest number of K-pop groups ever featured in its line up.

Goldman estimated Japan concert audiences will grow at a 24% compounded annual growth rate from 2023 to 2026, with the combined share for Hybe, JYP and SM doubling from 7% to 14%.

Catalysts for growth in Japan include SM’s newest Japanese boy group NCT Wish as well as JYP’s upcoming boy group NEXZ.

The global fanbase

Goldman is also bullish on K-pop’s global fanbase growth, especially in markets like the U.S.

Here's why America is suddenly obsessed with BTS

The report pointed to the success of Hybe-managed girl group NewJeans on U.S. charts. In a March 27 report, analysts noted NewJeans’ most recent album hit No. 1 on the U.S. Billboard 200. The group’s lead single, “Super Shy,” charted at No. 2 on the Billboard Global 200.

The group also was the first South Korean girl group to perform at Lollapalooza. The Chicago Sun Times reported the group may have managed to draw the biggest audience ever for the festival’s 5 p.m. slot.

Le Sserafim, managed by Hybe subsidiary Source Music, also made their debut at the Coachella music festival on April 13, with another show scheduled for April 20.

Hybe also recently announced that it will expand its partnership with Universal Music Group, including exclusive distribution rights for Hybe’s artists and labels. UMG’s roster includes Taylor Swift, Ariana Grande and Justin Bieber.

Goldman said the announcement is a visible sign that K-pop is becoming mainstream globally, leading to a competitive position that allows stronger bargaining power in business relationships.

The analysts concluded there’s “a long runway of growth ahead” for the sector, adding that “further downside for wallet share, which has normalized close to pre-Covid levels, seems limited, in our view.”

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Investor Ric Edelman reacts to crypto ETF boom

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Ric Edelman cuts through crypto confusion specifically for the long-term investor

Bitcoin’s milestone week comes as new crypto exchange-traded funds are hitting the market.

Investor and best-selling personal finance author Ric Edelman thinks the rollout gives investors more access to upside.

He finds buffer ETFs and yield ETFs particularly exciting.

“You can now invest in bitcoin ETFs that protect you against the downside volatility while preserving your ability to enjoy the upside profits,” Edelman told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.” You can generate massive amounts of yield, much more than you can in the stock market.”

Edelman is the founder of the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals, which educates financial advisors on cryptocurrencies. He is also in Barron’s Financial Advisor Hall of Fame.

“Crypto is meant to be a long-term hold, just like the stock market,” said Edelman. “It’s meant to diversify the portfolio.”

His thoughts came as a bitcoin rally got underway. The cryptocurrency crossed $100,000 on Thursday for the first time since February. As of Friday’s close on Wall Street, bitcoin gained 6% this week. It is now up almost 10% so far this month.

However, Edelman sees problems when it comes to leverage and inverse bitcoin ETFs. He warned that not all crypto ETFs are appropriate for retail investors, suggesting most don’t understand how they work.

‘Same thing as buying a lottery ticket’

“These leveraged ETFs often have an assumption you’re going to hold the fund for a single day, a daily reset,” he said. “That’s literally the same thing as buying a lottery ticket. This isn’t investing.”

During the same interview, “ETF Edge” host Bob Pisani referenced 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITX) as an example of a leveraged bitcoin product that includes daily fees and resets.

The fund is beating bitcoin this week, jumping more than 12%. So far this month, the ETF is up 19%. But the BITX is underperforming bitcoin this year. It is up about 1.5%, while bitcoin is up roughly 10%.

Volatility Shares is the ETF provider behind BITX.

The company writes on its website: “The Fund is not suitable for all investors … An investor in the Fund could potentially lose the full value of their investment within a single day.”

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America failing its young investors, warns financial guru Ric Edelman

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Legendary investor Ric Edelman on why financial literacy hasn't improved in a generation… and what can be done.

One of the most recognized names in personal finance is urging Americans to increase their financial literacy, and urging the country to do a better job of providing the education. 

“We spend a lot of time trying to improve financial literacy. We stink at it,” said Ric Edelman, founder of Edelman Financial Engines, on this week’s CNBC “ETF Edge.”

Edelman believes the problem is rooted in the fact the U.S. has never had a great tradition of encouraging smart personal finance, and he says it has never been more important to fix, given how long people are now living. That increases the risks related to running out of money later in life and creates serious questions about standard investing models for long-term financial security, such as the 60-40 stock and bond portfolio.

“We are the first generation, as baby boomers, that will live long lives as part of the norm,” Edelman said. “Everyone before us, our parents and grandparents mostly died in their 50s and 60s. You didn’t have to plan for the future, because you weren’t going to have one,” he added.

One of his biggest concerns with the current generation of young investors is that they seem to believe in get-rich-quick schemes. Many of the new investing websites have been too encouraging of risky strategies that lure young investors in, he says, promoting financial gambling rather than investing. Options and zero-day options have become a significant part of the daily trading landscape in the last several years. According to data from the New York Stock Exchange, the percent of retail traders participating in the options market approached the 50% mark in 2022. In 2024, options volume hit an all-time record.

Edelman says younger generations should be wary of a corporate America that makes consumer finance more complicated than it should be, which includes the manufacturing of overly sophisticated and expensive financial products. “They want to make it complex, to make you a hostage rather than a customer,” he said. 

He also cautions young investors to make sure they are getting information about personal finance from credible sources. “When so many are getting their financial education from TikTok, that’s a little scary,” he said.

Edelman believes the cards are stacked against young investors because of the lack of high schools mandating a course in personal finance. “The only way we discover the issues of money is through the school of hard knocks as adults, and we’re over our heads when it comes to buying a car, getting a mortgage, insurance and saving for college” he said. 

That situation is improving for the next generations of adults. Utah was the first state to require a personal finance course for high school graduation in 2004, and the list grew to include 11 states by 2021. As of this year, 27 states now require high school students to take a semester-long personal finance course for graduation, according to Next Gen Personal Finance. 

Another big challenge for young investors is they often don’t have a lot of money to invest, with many recent college graduates struggling to pay bills and left with little to put towards other financial goals. But there is at least one reason to be hopeful about younger Americans, Edelman says: they are highly motivated to reach financial success.

“Today’s youth looks at their parents and sees how poorly they were prepared for retirement. They don’t want that to be their future” he said.

ETF Edge: New crypto ETFs, 60/40 investing and bond ETFs

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Powell may have a hard time avoiding Trump’s ‘Too Late’ label even as Fed chief does the right thing

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U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 7, 2025.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

History suggests that President Donald Trump’s new “Too Late” nickname for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has a strong chance of coming true, though he’d hardly be alone if it does.

After all, central bank leaders have a long history of being too reluctant to raise or lower interest rates.

Whether it was Arthur Burns keeping rates too low in the face of the stagflation threat during the 1970s, Alan Greenspan not responding quickly enough to the dotcom bubble in the ’90s, or Ben Bernanke’s dismissal of the subprime housing prices as “contained” and not lowering rates prior to the 2008 financial crisis, Fed leaders have long been criticized as slow to act absent compelling data showing them something needs to be done.

So some economists think Powell, faced with a unique set of challenges to the Fed’s twin goals of full employment and low inflation, has a strong chance of wearing the “Too Late” label.

In fact, many of them think nothing is exactly what Powell should do now.

“Historically, go back and look at any Federal Reserve, and I’m going back into the ’70s, the Fed is always late both ways,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America. “They tend to wait. They want to wait to make sure that they won’t make a mistake, and by the time they do that, usually it is too late. The economy is almost always in recession.”

The Fed will have to get back in the business of forecasting, says New Century's Claudia Sahm

However, he said that given the volatile policy mix, with Trump’s tariffs threatening both growth and inflation, Powell has little choice but to sit tight absent more clarity.

Powell is in a no-win situation, with threats to both sides of the Fed mandate, “and that’s why he’s doing the exact right thing at this moment, which is nothing, because one way or another it’s going to be a mistake,” North said.

Trump wants a cut

Though Trump said the economy probably will be fine no matter what the Fed does, he has been badgering the central bank lately to cut rates, insisting that inflation has been slayed.

In a Truth Social post after the Fed decision this week to keep rates unchanged, Trump declared that “Too Late’ Jerome Powell is a FOOL, who doesn’t have a clue.” The president declared there is “virtually NO INFLATION,” something that was true for March at least when the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in unchanged for the month.

However, the president’s tariffs have yet to be felt in the real economy, as they are barely a month old.

Recent economic data do not indicate price spikes nor a perceptible slowdown in economic activity. However, surveys are showing heightened worries in both the manufacturing and service sectors, while consumer sentiment has soured, and nearly 90% of S&P 500 companies mentioned tariff concerns on their quarterly earnings calls.

At this week’s post-meeting news conference, though, Powell repeatedly voiced confidence in what he called a “solid” economy and a labor market “consistent with maximum employment.”

No ‘pre-emptive’ cuts

The 72-year-old Fed chair also dismissed any idea of a pre-emptive rate cut, despite what sentiment survey data is indicating about current conditions.

“Powell offered two reasons for not being in a hurry. The first – ‘no real cost to waiting’ – is one he may live to regret,” Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI, said in a client note. “The second – ‘we are not sure what the right thing will be’ – makes more sense.”

Powell has his own particular history of being late, with the Fed reluctant to hike when inflation began spiking in 2021. He and his colleagues labeled that episode “transitory,” a call that came back to haunt them when they had to institute a series of historically aggressive hikes that still have not brought inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target.

“If they’re waiting for the labor market to confirm whether they should cut rates, by definition they’re too late,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities and a senior economic advisor to Trump in his first term. “I don’t think the Fed is being forward-looking enough.”

Indeed, if the Fed is using the labor market as a guide, it almost certainly will be behind the curve. An old adage on Wall Street says, “the labor market is the last to know” when a recession is coming, and history has been fairly consistent that job losses generally don’t start until after a downturn has begun.

LaVorgna thinks the Fed is hamstrung by its own history and will miss this call as well, as policymakers unsuccessfully try to game out the impact of tariffs.

“We’re not going to know if it’s too late until it’s too late,” he said. “Economic history combined with current market pricing suggests there’s a real risk the Fed will be too late.”

Fed Chair Powell: I’ve never asked for a meeting with any president and I never will

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