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NewJeans, Hybe and Coachella shows to lead turnaround in Kpop

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CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – AUGUST 03: (L – R) Danielle, Hyein, Hanni, Minji and Haerin of NewJeans perform in concert during Lollapalooza at Grant Park on August 03, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois.

Gary Miller | Filmmagic | Getty Images

It hasn’t been an easy start to the year for investors in the K-pop sector as lower fourth-quarter sales and profits, as well as dating scandals, hit stock prices.

Goldman Sachs, however, expressed optimism for the industry in a March 14 report, saying the K-pop sector is “misunderstood.”

Shares of K-pop’s “big four” companies have all fallen since the start of the year. JYP Entertainment’s stock has plunged over 37% year to date, while YG Entertainment shed nearly 17%. Kospi-listed Hybe, home of superstars BTS, saw a smaller drop of about 4.5%.

Shares of SM Entertainment have plunged over 17%. The decline comes as one of the agency’s artists was embroiled in a dating scandal that drew widespread international and domestic coverage.

In February, the stock fell for five straight sessions to its lowest level since October 2022 following the drama surrounding Karina, the leader of girl group Aespa. The sell-off wiped $50 million off SM’s market value as Chinese fans threatened to boycott the group’s albums.

Nonetheless, Goldman Sachs said it sees a “high potential for valuation re-rating,” as companies still continue to deliver multi-year earnings growth. For 2023, all four companies posted higher full-year revenue and net profits.

A superior valuation metric

Goldman said the sell-off is tied to markets focusing on album sales, which has historically been considered a key proxy for the number of fans and, by extension, prospects for the companies.

“We challenge this mainstream mindset, arguing that offline concert audience… is the superior metric to measure the growing reach of K-pop,” the analysts wrote. They explained album sales can be tainted by wallet share, where one fan can buy multiple albums — a common occurrence among the K-pop fanbase.

The analysts also said album sales spiked during the pandemic due to the lack of offline interactions, which distorted the metric in relation to fans.

Japan to power short-term growth

When evaluating the industry by in-person concert attendance, Goldman said “growth has not stopped scaling at a rapid pace,” and “in the near term, we see audience growth in Japan as the key growth driver.”

The analysts see a substantial fanbase growth opportunity for K-pop companies in the near-term in Japan, “which we believe is being overlooked by the market.”

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They note Japan has been one of the largest overseas fanbases for K-pop, with Hybe, SM and JYP taking a combined 7% of the live music market in Japan. Goldman pointed out that Japan’s top talent agency Johnny & Associates has been mired in a major scandal, leading to the industry turning more favorable to K-pop artists.

In 2023, Kouhaku Uta Gassen, the largest music show in Japan, invited five K-pop artists and two localized groups produced by K-pop companies. It was the first time the show has featured male K-pop artists since 2011 and the largest number of K-pop groups ever featured in its line up.

Goldman estimated Japan concert audiences will grow at a 24% compounded annual growth rate from 2023 to 2026, with the combined share for Hybe, JYP and SM doubling from 7% to 14%.

Catalysts for growth in Japan include SM’s newest Japanese boy group NCT Wish as well as JYP’s upcoming boy group NEXZ.

The global fanbase

Goldman is also bullish on K-pop’s global fanbase growth, especially in markets like the U.S.

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The report pointed to the success of Hybe-managed girl group NewJeans on U.S. charts. In a March 27 report, analysts noted NewJeans’ most recent album hit No. 1 on the U.S. Billboard 200. The group’s lead single, “Super Shy,” charted at No. 2 on the Billboard Global 200.

The group also was the first South Korean girl group to perform at Lollapalooza. The Chicago Sun Times reported the group may have managed to draw the biggest audience ever for the festival’s 5 p.m. slot.

Le Sserafim, managed by Hybe subsidiary Source Music, also made their debut at the Coachella music festival on April 13, with another show scheduled for April 20.

Hybe also recently announced that it will expand its partnership with Universal Music Group, including exclusive distribution rights for Hybe’s artists and labels. UMG’s roster includes Taylor Swift, Ariana Grande and Justin Bieber.

Goldman said the announcement is a visible sign that K-pop is becoming mainstream globally, leading to a competitive position that allows stronger bargaining power in business relationships.

The analysts concluded there’s “a long runway of growth ahead” for the sector, adding that “further downside for wallet share, which has normalized close to pre-Covid levels, seems limited, in our view.”

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Morgan Stanley (MS) earnings Q3 2024

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Ted Pick, CEO Morgan Stanley, speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 18th, 2024.

Adam Galici | CNBC

Morgan Stanley topped analysts’ estimates for third quarter profit as its wealth management, trading and investment banking operations generated more revenue than expected.

Here’s what the company reported:

  • Earnings:$1.88 a share vs $1.58 LSEG estimate
  • Revenue: $15.38 billion vs. $14.41 billion estimate

Morgan Stanley had several tailwinds in its favor. The bank’s massive wealth management business was helped by high stock market values in the quarter, which inflates the management fees the bank collects.

Investment banking has rebounded after a dismal 2023, a trend that may continue as easing rates will encourage more financing and merger activity.

Finally, its Wall Street rivals have posted better-than-expected trading results, making it unlikely that the firm missed out on elevated activity.

JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup topped expectations, helped by better-than-expected revenue from trading or investment banking.

This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

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China’s Alibaba claims AI translation tool beats Google, ChatGPT

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Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba has invested heavily in its fast-growing international business as growth slows for its China-focused Taobao and Tmall business.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

BEIJING — Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba‘s international arm on Wednesday launched an updated version of its artificial intelligence-powered translation tool that, it says, is better than products offered by Google, DeepL and ChatGPT.

That’s based on an assessment of Alibaba International’s new model, Marco MT, by translation benchmark framework Flores, the Chinese company said.

Alibaba’s fast-growing international unit released the AI translation product as an update to one unveiled about a year ago, which it says already has 500,000 merchant users. Sellers based in one country can use the translation tool to create product pages in the language of the target market.

The new version is based only on large language models, allowing it to draw on contextual clues such as culture or industry-specific terms, Kaifu Zhang, vice president of Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group and head of the business’ artificial intelligence initiative, told CNBC in an interview Tuesday.

“The idea is that we want this AI tool to help the bottom line of the merchants, because if the merchants are doing well, the platform will be doing well,” he said.

Large language models power artificial intelligence applications such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which can also translate text. The models, trained on massive amounts of data, can generate humanlike responses to user prompts.

Alibaba’s translation tool is based on its own model called Qwen. The product supports 15 languages: Arabic, Chinese, Dutch, English, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Polish, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, Turkish and Ukrainian.

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Zhang said he expects “substantial demand” for the tool from Europe and the Americas. He also expects emerging markets to be a significant area of use.

When users of Alibaba.com — a site for suppliers to sell to businesses — are categorized by country, developing countries account for about half of the top 20 active AI tool users, Zhang said.

Chinese companies have increasingly looked abroad for growth opportunities, especially e-commerce merchants. PDD Holdings‘ Temu, fast fashion seller Shein and ByteDance’s TikTok are among the recent global market entrants. Many China-based merchants also sell on Amazon.com.

Contextual clues

Since Alibaba launched the first version of its AI translation tool last fall, the company said merchants have used it for more than 100 million product listings. Similar to other AI-based services, the basic pricing charges merchants by the amount of translated text.

Zhang declined to share how much the updated version would cost. He said it was included in some service bundles for merchants wanting simple exposure to overseas users.

His thinking is that contextual translation makes it much more likely that consumers decide to buy. He shared an example in which a colloquial Chinese description for a slipper would have turned off English-speaking consumers if it was only translated literally, without getting at the implied meaning.

“The updated translation engine is going to make Double 11 a better experience for consumers because of more authentic expression,” Zhang said, in reference to the Alibaba-led shopping festival that centers on Nov. 11 each year.

Alibaba’s international business includes platforms such as AliExpress and Lazada, which primarily targets Southeast Asia. The international unit reported sales growth of 32% to $4.03 billion in the quarter ended June from a year ago.

That’s in contrast to a 1% year-on-year drop in sales to $15.6 billion for Alibaba’s main Taobao and Tmall e-commerce business, which has focused on China.

The Taobao app is also popular with consumers in Singapore. In September, the app launched an AI-powered English version for users in the country.

Nomura analysts expect that Alibaba’s international revenue slowed slightly to 29% year-on-year growth in the quarter ended September, while operating losses narrowed, according to an Oct. 10 report. Alibaba has yet to announce when it will release quarterly earnings.

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ASML, UNH, WBA and more

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