Connect with us

Economics

Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000, Labor Department says

Published

on

The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

As part of its preliminary annual benchmark revisions to the nonfarm payroll numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the actual job growth was nearly 30% less than the initially reported 2.9 million from April 2023 through March of the following year.

The revision to the total payrolls level of -0.5% is the largest since 2009. The numbers are routinely revised each month, but the BLS does a broader revision each year when it gets the results of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

Wall Street had been waiting for the revisions numbers, with many economists expecting a sizeable reduction in the originally reported numbers. Even with the revisions, job creation during the period stood at more than 2 million, but the report could be seen as indication that the labor market is not as strong as the previous BLS reporting had made it out to be.

At the sector level, the biggest downward revision came in professional and business services, where job growth was 358,000 less. Other areas revised lower included leisure and hospitality (-150,000), manufacturing (-115,000) and trade, transportation and utilities (-104,000).

Within the trade category, retail trade numbers were cut by 129,000.

A few sectors saw upward revisions, including private education and health services (87,000), transportation and warehousing (56,400) and other services (21,000).

Government jobs were little changed after the revisions, picking up just 1,000.

Nonfarm payroll jobs totaled 158.7 million through July, an increase of 1.6% from the same month in 2023. There have been concerns, though, that the labor market is starting to weaken, with the rise in unemployment of 4.3% representing a 0.8 percentage point gain from the 12-month low and triggering a historically accurate measure known as the Sahm Rule that indicates an economy in recession.

However, much of the gain in the unemployment rate has been attributed to an increase in people returning to the workforce rather than a pronounced surge in layoffs.

Federal Reserve officials nonetheless are watching the jobs situation closely and are expected to approve their first interest rate cut in four years when they next meet in September. Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a much-anticipated policy speech Friday at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming that could lay the groundwork for easier monetary policy ahead.

Economics

Why stricter voting laws no longer help Republicans

Published

on

“The Republicans should pray for rain”—the title of a paper published by a trio of political scientists in 2007—has been an axiom of American elections for years. The logic was straightforward: each inch of election-day showers, the study found, dampened turnout by 1%. Lower turnout gave Republicans an edge because the party’s affluent electorate had the resources to vote even when it was inconvenient. Their opponents, less so.

Continue Reading

Economics

Why the president must not be lexicographer-in-chief

Published

on

Who decides what legal terms mean? If it is Donald Trump, God help America

Continue Reading

Economics

Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

Published

on

Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

Inflation barely budged in April as tariffs President Donald Trump implemented in the early part of the month had yet to show up in consumer prices, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, increased just 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.1%. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast while the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower.

Excluding food and energy, the core reading that tends to get even greater focus from Fed policymakers showed readings of 0.1% and 2.5%, against respective estimates of 0.1% and 2.6%.

Consumer spending, though, slowed sharply for the month, posting just a 0.2% increase, in line with the consensus but slower than the 0.7% rate in March. A more cautious consumer mood also was reflected in the personal savings rate, which jumped to 4.9%, up from 0.6 percentage point in March to the highest level in nearly a year.

Personal income surged 0.8%, a slight increase from the prior month but well ahead of the forecast for 0.3%.

Markets showed little reaction to the news, with stock futures continuing to point lower and Treasury yields mixed.

People shop at a grocery store in Brooklyn on May 13, 2025 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Trump has been pushing the Fed to lower its key interest rate as inflation has continued to gravitate back to the central bank’s 2% target. However, policymakers have been hesitant to move as they await the longer-term impacts of the president’s trade policy.

On Thursday, Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell held their first face-to-face meeting since the president started his second term. However, a Fed statement indicated the future path of monetary policy was not discussed and stressed that decisions would be made free of political considerations.

Trump slapped across-the-board 10% duties on all U.S. imports, part of an effort to even out a trading landscape in which the U.S. ran a record $140.5 billion deficit in March. In addition to the general tariffs, Trump launched selective reciprocal tariffs much higher than the 10% general charge.

Since then, though, Trump has backed off the more severe tariffs in favor of a 90-day negotiating period with the affected countries. Earlier this week, an international court struck down the tariffs, saying Trump exceeded his authority and didn’t prove that national security was threatened by the trade issues.

Then in the latest installment of the drama, an appeals court allowed a White House effort for a temporary stay of the order from the U.S. Court of International Trade.

Economists worry that tariffs could spark another round of inflation, though the historical record shows that their impact is often minimal.

At their policy meeting earlier this month, Fed officials also expressed worry about potential tariff inflation, particularly at a time when concerns are rising about the labor market. Higher prices and slower economic growth can yield stagflation, a phenomenon the U.S. hasn’t seen since the early 1980s.

Continue Reading

Trending