Connect with us

Economics

Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000, Labor Department says

Published

on

The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

As part of its preliminary annual benchmark revisions to the nonfarm payroll numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the actual job growth was nearly 30% less than the initially reported 2.9 million from April 2023 through March of the following year.

The revision to the total payrolls level of -0.5% is the largest since 2009. The numbers are routinely revised each month, but the BLS does a broader revision each year when it gets the results of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

Wall Street had been waiting for the revisions numbers, with many economists expecting a sizeable reduction in the originally reported numbers. Even with the revisions, job creation during the period stood at more than 2 million, but the report could be seen as indication that the labor market is not as strong as the previous BLS reporting had made it out to be.

At the sector level, the biggest downward revision came in professional and business services, where job growth was 358,000 less. Other areas revised lower included leisure and hospitality (-150,000), manufacturing (-115,000) and trade, transportation and utilities (-104,000).

Within the trade category, retail trade numbers were cut by 129,000.

A few sectors saw upward revisions, including private education and health services (87,000), transportation and warehousing (56,400) and other services (21,000).

Government jobs were little changed after the revisions, picking up just 1,000.

Nonfarm payroll jobs totaled 158.7 million through July, an increase of 1.6% from the same month in 2023. There have been concerns, though, that the labor market is starting to weaken, with the rise in unemployment of 4.3% representing a 0.8 percentage point gain from the 12-month low and triggering a historically accurate measure known as the Sahm Rule that indicates an economy in recession.

However, much of the gain in the unemployment rate has been attributed to an increase in people returning to the workforce rather than a pronounced surge in layoffs.

Federal Reserve officials nonetheless are watching the jobs situation closely and are expected to approve their first interest rate cut in four years when they next meet in September. Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a much-anticipated policy speech Friday at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming that could lay the groundwork for easier monetary policy ahead.

Economics

UK inflation September 2024

Published

on

The Canary Wharf business district is seen in the distance behind autumnal leaves on October 09, 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. dropped sharply to 1.7% in September, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the headline rate to come in at a higher 1.9% for the month, in the first dip of the print below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021.

Inflation has been hovering around that level for the last four months, and came in at 2.2% in August.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.2% for the month, down from 3.6% in August and below the 3.4% forecast of a Reuters poll.

Price rises in the services sector, the dominant portion of the U.K. economy, eased significantly to 4.9% last month from 5.6% in August, now hitting its lowest rate since May 2022.

Core and services inflation are key watch points for Bank of England policymakers as they mull whether to cut interest rates again at their November meeting.

As of Wednesday morning, market pricing put an 80% probability on a November rate cut ahead of the latest inflation print. Analysts on Tuesday said lower wage growth reported by the ONS this week had supported the case for a cut. The BOE reduced its key rate by 25 basis points in August before holding in September.

Within the broader European region, inflation in the euro zone dipped below the European Central Bank’s 2% target last month, hitting 1.8%, according to the latest data.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.

Continue Reading

Economics

Why Larry Hogan’s long-odds bid for a Senate seat matters

Published

on

FEW REPUBLICAN politicians differ more from Donald Trump than Larry Hogan, the GOP Senate candidate in Maryland. Consider the contrasts between a Trump rally and a Hogan event. Whereas Mr Trump prefers to take the stage and riff in front of packed arenas, Mr Hogan spent a recent Friday night chatting with locals at a waterfront wedding venue in Baltimore County. Mr Hogan’s stump speech, at around ten minutes, felt as long as a single off-script Trump tangent. Mr Trump delights in defying his advisers; Mr Hogan fastidiously sticks to talking points about bipartisanship, good governance and overcoming tough odds. Put another way, Mr Hogan’s campaign is something Mr Trump is rarely accused of being: boring. But it is intriguing.

Continue Reading

Economics

Polarisation by education is remaking American politics

Published

on

DEPENDING ON where exactly you find yourself, western Pennsylvania can feel Appalachian, Midwestern, booming or downtrodden. No matter where, however, this part of the state feels like the centre of the American political universe. Since she became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris has visited Western Pennsylvania six times—more often than Philadelphia, on the other side of the state. She will mark her seventh on a trip on October 14th, to the small city of Erie, where Donald Trump also held a rally recently. Democratic grandees flit through Pittsburgh regularly. It is where Ms Harris chose to unveil the details of her economic agenda, and it is where Barack Obama visited on October 10th to deliver encouragement and mild chastisement. “Do not just sit back and hope for the best,” he admonished. “Get off your couch and vote.”

Continue Reading

Trending