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O.J. Simpson’s defence was a harbinger of post-truth politics

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ORENTHAL JAMES (O.J.) SIMPSON, who died on April 10th, was in many ways an inspiring figure before he murdered his ex-wife. He overcame a childhood disease, rickets, which made him slightly bow-legged. In 1973 he was rated the “Most Valuable Player” in America’s National Football League. He was “the first black athlete to become a bona fide lovable media superstar”, according to People magazine. He starred in movies (“The Towering Inferno”, “The Naked Gun”), and made a fortune endorsing Hertz rental cars.

Then, on June 12th 1994, his former wife, Nicole Brown, and a friend of hers, Ron Goldman, were found stabbed to death. Simpson, whom Brown had previously accused of violence and threats, was immediately suspected. But on the day he was supposed to surrender for questioning, he fled. A cavalcade of cop cars slowly pursued his white Bronco truck along the freeways of Los Angeles. News helicopters beamed live coverage to sitting rooms around the world. His trial brought America to a standstill. Perhaps 150m people watched it on television. As the verdict was read out, trading of stocks and currencies all but ceased. When he was acquitted, white America gasped with disbelief. Black Americans celebrated: more than 80% agreed with the jury. Gil Garcetti, one of the prosecutors, lamented that the verdict was “based on emotion that overcame reason”.

Simpson’s grim story illuminates two enduring ills. Most obviously: racial division. Simpson was black; Brown and Goldman were white. The jury that acquitted Simpson was three-quarters black. The jury that reached the opposite conclusion in a civil trial in 1997, finding him liable for the two murders and ordering him to pay millions of dollars to the victims’ families, was mostly white. Presented with the same set of facts, white and black Americans saw a different reality.

The second ill is conspiratorial thinking. The techniques of persuasion deployed by Simpson’s defence lawyers were a harbinger of those deployed by populists such as Donald Trump today. In effect, they urged the jurors to disregard the facts—Simpson’s blood was found at the crime scene, both victims’ blood was found in his car and in his house—and back the group they identify with. Just as Mr Trump has persuaded his supporters that all the criminal charges against him are cooked up by malign Democrats, so Simpson’s lawyers invited the jurors to imagine a nebulous conspiracy perpetrated by an institution they distrusted: the police. Someone else committed the murders and racist cops planted evidence to incriminate Simpson, they suggested.

One of the cops, Mark Fuhrman, had indeed used racial slurs in the past. But no actual evidence of a conspiracy was produced. Nonetheless, in a city where, only a couple of years before, three cops had been filmed savagely beating a black motorist, Rodney King, and were then acquitted of all charges, many African-Americans found the idea of one plausible.

Simpson’s lawyer fanned this notion with incendiary, them-and-us rhetoric. He likened Mr Fuhrman to Adolf Hitler, saying that Hitler won power because people didn’t try to stop him, and suggesting that it was the jurors’ duty to stand up to Mr Fuhrman before he took “all black people” and burned them.

Americans are less racist than they were in the 1990s. At the time of the Simpson trial, only half told Gallup, a pollster, that they approved of marriage between black and white people. Now 94% do. But conspiracism shows no sign of ebbing: half of Americans think President John F. Kennedy’s assassin had accomplices and a quarter think the billionaire financier George Soros has a secret plot to rule the world. Two of the three highest-polling presidential candidates this year, Mr Trump and Robert Kennedy junior, habitually dabble in conspiracy theories. If the lesson from the Simpson trial is that skilful demagogues can win over a big chunk of the public by inflaming divisions and “flood[ing] the zone with shit”, as a Trump adviser once put it, it has been well learned.

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Donald Trump sacks America’s top military brass

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THE FIRST shot against America’s senior military leaders was fired within hours of Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20th: General Mark Milley’s portrait was removed from the wall on the E-ring, where it had hung with paintings of other former chairmen of the joint chiefs of staff. A day later the commandant of the coast guard, Admiral Linda Fagan, was thrown overboard. On February 21st it was the most senior serving officer, General Charles “CQ” Brown, a former F-16 pilot, who was ejected from the Pentagon. At least he was spared a Trumpian farewell insult. “He is a fine gentleman and an outstanding leader,” Mr Trump declared.

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The journalist’s dilemma of covering Trump

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The journalist’s dilemma of covering Trump

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Economics

Germany’s election will usher in new leadership — but might not change its economy

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Production at the VW plant in Emden.

Sina Schuldt | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

The struggling German economy has been a major talking point among critics of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ government during the latest election campaign — but analysts warn a new leadership might not turn these tides.

As voters prepare to head to the polls, it is now all but certain that Germany will soon have a new chancellor. The Christian Democratic Union’s Friedrich Merz is the firm favorite.

Merz has not shied away from blasting Scholz’s economic policies and from linking them to the lackluster state of Europe’s largest economy. He argues that a government under his leadership would give the economy the boost it needs.

Experts speaking to CNBC were less sure.

“There is a high risk that Germany will get a refurbished economic model after the elections, but not a brand new model that makes the competition jealous,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, told CNBC.

The CDU/CSU economic agenda

The CDU, which on a federal level ties up with regional sister party the Christian Social Union, is running on a “typical economic conservative program,” Brzeski said.

It includes income and corporate tax cuts, fewer subsidies and less bureaucracy, changes to social benefits, deregulation, support for innovation, start-ups and artificial intelligence and boosting investment among other policies, according to CDU/CSU campaigners.

“The weak parts of the positions are that the CDU/CSU is not very precise on how it wants to increase investments in infrastructure, digitalization and education. The intention is there, but the details are not,” Brzeski said, noting that the union appears to be aiming to revive Germany’s economic model without fully overhauling it.

“It is still a reform program which pretends that change can happen without pain,” he said.

Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of forecasting at research institute DIW Berlin, noted that the CDU is also looking to reach gross domestic product growth of around 2% again through its fiscal and economic program called “Agenda 2030.”

But reaching such levels of economic expansion in Germany “seems unrealistic,” not just temporarily, but also in the long run, she told CNBC.

Germany’s GDP declined in both 2023 and 2024. Recent quarterly growth readings have also been teetering on the verge of a technical recession, which has so far been narrowly avoided. The German economy shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with the previous three-month stretch, according to the latest reading.

Europe’s largest economy faces pressure in key industries like the auto sector, issues with infrastructure like the country’s rail network and a housebuilding crisis.

Dany-Knedlik also flagged the so-called debt brake, a long-standing fiscal rule that is enshrined in Germany’s constitution, which limits the size of the structural budget deficit and how much debt the government can take on.

Whether or not the clause should be overhauled has been a big part of the fiscal debate ahead of the election. While the CDU ideally does not want to change the debt brake, Merz has said that he may be open to some reform.

“To increase growth prospects substantially without increasing debt also seems rather unlikely,” DIW’s Dany-Knedlik said, adding that, if public investments were to rise within the limits of the debt brake, significant tax increases would be unavoidable.

“Taking into account that a 2 Percent growth target is to be reached within a 4 year legislation period, the Agenda 2030 in combination with conservatives attitude towards the debt break to me reads more of a wish list than a straight forward economic growth program,” she said.

Change in German government will deliver economic success, says CEO of German employers association

Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, sees some benefits to the plans of the CDU-CSU union, saying they would likely “be positive” for the economy, but warning that the resulting boost would be small.

“Tax cuts would support consumer spending and private investment, but weak sentiment means consumers may save a significant share of their additional after-tax income and firms may be reluctant to invest,” she told CNBC.  

Palmas nevertheless pointed out that not everyone would come away a winner from the new policies. Income tax cuts would benefit middle- and higher-income households more than those with a lower income, who would also be affected by potential reductions of social benefits.

Coalition talks ahead

Following the Sunday election, the CDU/CSU will almost certainly be left to find a coalition partner to form a majority government, with the Social Democratic Party or the Green party emerging as the likeliest candidates.

The parties will need to broker a coalition agreement outlining their joint goals, including on the economy — which could prove to be a difficult undertaking, Capital Economics’ Palmas said.

“The CDU and the SPD and Greens have significantly different economic policy positions,” she said, pointing to discrepancies over taxes and regulation. While the CDU/CSU want to reduce both items, the SPD and Greens seek to raise taxes and oppose deregulation in at least some areas, Palmas explained.

The group is nevertheless likely to hold the power in any potential negotiations as it will likely have their choice between partnering with the SPD or Greens.

“Accordingly, we suspect that the coalition agreement will include most of the CDU’s main economic proposals,” she said.

Germany is 'lacking ambition,' investor says

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