Economics
PCE inflation September 2024:
Inflation increased slightly in September and moved closer to the Federal Reserve’s target, according to a Commerce Department report Thursday.
The personal consumption expenditures price index showed a seasonally adjusted 0.2% increase for the month, with the 12-month inflation rate at 2.1%, both in line with Dow Jones estimates. The Fed uses the PCE reading as its primary inflation gauge, though policymakers also follow a variety of other indicators.
Fed officials target inflation at a 2% annual rate, a level it has not achieved since February 2021. The September headline rate was down 0.2 percentage point from August.
Though the headline number showed the central bank nearing its goal, the inflation rate was at 2.7% excluding food and energy, after the so-called core measure increased 0.3% on a monthly basis. The annual rate was 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast but the same as in August.
The move in inflation was tilted towards services prices, which increased 0.3%, while goods prices decreased 0.1%, the fourth outright deflation figure in the past five months for the category. Housing prices eased off their pace, rising 0.3%. Energy goods and services fell 2%.
The report comes with markets betting heavily that the Fed will cut its benchmark short-term borrowing rate when it meets next week. In September, the Fed slashed the rate by a half percentage point, a move virtually unprecedented during an economic expansion.
Policymakers have expressed confidence that inflation is heading back to target while at the same time showing concern over the state of the labor market despite most indicators showing that hiring is continuing and layoffs are low.
A separate report Thursday morning reinforced the notion that companies are mostly hanging onto their workers.
Initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled 216,000 for the week ending Oct. 26, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous period’s upwardly revised level, according to the Labor Department. The total was also below the 230,000 forecast.
Despite worries over inflation, the Commerce Department report showed income and spending held up during the month.
Personal income increased 0.3%, slightly higher than the August number and in line with expectations. Consumer spending rose 0.5%, topping the outlook by 0.1 percentage point.
In yet another data point Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the employment cost index increased 0.8% in the third quarter, 0.1 percentage below forecast. On a 12-month basis, the index, which measures wages, salaries and benefits, increased 3.9%, compared to a 2.4% increase in the consumer price index.
Hiring decreased just slightly in May even as consumers and companies braced against tariffs and a potentially slowing economy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 139,000 for the month, above the muted Dow Jones estimate for 125,000 and a bit below the downwardly revised 147,000 that the U.S. economy added in April.
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed also was unchanged, holding at 7.8%.
Worker pay grew more than expected, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% during the month and 3.9% from a year ago, compared with respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.
“Stronger than expected jobs growth and stable unemployment underlines the resilience of the US labor market in the face of recent shocks,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
Nearly half the job growth came from health care, which added 62,000, even higher than its average gain of 44,000 over the past year. Leisure and hospitality contributed 48,000 while social assistance added 16,000.
On the downside, government lost 22,000 jobs as efforts to cull the federal workforce by President Donald Trump and the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency began to show an impact.
Stock market futures jumped higher after the release as did Treasury yields.
Though the May numbers were better than expected, there were some underlying trouble spots.
The April count was revised lower by 30,000, while March’s total came down by 65,000 to 120,000.
There also were disparities between the establishment survey, which is used to generate the headline payrolls gain, and the household survey, which is used for the unemployment rate. The latter count, generally more volatile than the establishment survey, showed a decrease of 696,000 workers. Full-time workers declined by 623,000, while part-timers rose by 33,000.
“The May jobs report still has everyone waiting for the other shoe to drop,” said Daniel Zhao, lead economist at job rating site Glassdoor. “This report shows the job market standing tall, but as economic headwinds stack up cumulatively, it’s only a matter of time before the job market starts straining against those headwinds.”
The report comes against a teetering economic background, complicated by Trump’s tariffs and an ever-changing variable of how far he will go to try to level the global playing field for American goods.
Most indicators show that the economy is still a good distance from recession. But sentiment surveys indicate high degrees of anxiety from both consumers and business leaders as they brace for the ultimate impact of how much tariffs will slow business activity and increase inflation.
For their part, Federal Reserve officials are viewing the current landscape with caution.
The central bank holds its next policy meeting in less than two weeks, with markets largely expecting the Fed to stay on hold regarding interest rates. In recent speeches, policymakers have indicated greater concern with the potential for tariff-induced inflation.
“With the Fed laser-focused on managing the risks to the inflation side of its mandate, today’s stronger than expected jobs report will do little to alter its patient approach,” said Rosner, the Goldman Sachs strategist.
Friday also marks the final day before Fed officials head into their quiet period before the meeting, when they do not issue policy remarks.
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