Investing in semiconductors may be the most efficient way to play the artificial intelligence boom, according to VanEck’s CEO.
“Semiconductors have become the heart of the AI trade,” Jan van Eck told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.
His firm’s VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), which tracks 25 of the biggest chipmakers in the country, is up 21% this year as of Wednesday’s close. However, SMH has fallen nearly 6% this month, led to the downside by Intel, AMD and On Semiconductor.
The fund’s top holding, Nvidia, has seen its shares surge nearly 70% this year amid soaring demand for its AI processors, but it’s also down 7% since the start of the month.
Van Eck suggests the weakness is temporary. He contends high interest in AI chips could set up the group for more durable returns.
“They have become revalued from being a highly cyclical business with short product lives to part of the growth trade, and they have more recurring revenue, so they can just stay at high profitabilities even despite some of the short-term stuff,” said van Eck.
ETF Action founding partner Mike Akins also sees opportunities for investors. He thinks limited competition for some of the top chipmakers’ products could sustain the group.
“You have a high moat, and they control that pricing point,” he said in the same interview. “Until there’s a situation where competition increases meaningfully in this space, where you can have some pricing pressure, it’s hard to see that trade going away.”
Still, Akins advises investors to pay attention to semiconductor fund flows as a barometer for future performance.
“We often caution our clients to almost think about flows as a contrarian indicator. As flows get really depressed, that’s potentially opportunity to buy, and vice versa. As flows get really extended, it might be time to pare a little bit.”
Worries about tariffs may have rattled global investors, but analysts still expect China’s technology sector to keep riding this year’s wave of interest in homegrown generative artificial intelligence. The latest salvo of U.S. tariffs on China and its Southeast Asia trading partners sent Chinese stocks tumbling at the open Thursday, but they closed well off their lows. Local markets were closed Friday for a holiday. “Many of the larger tech names (and most of the consumer names) have limited exposure to the U.S. market despite some overreaction at first,” Kai Wang, Asia equity strategist at Morningstar, said in a statement Thursday. “We are expecting some fiscal policy intervention,” he said, “should there be incremental macro weakness.” China’s finance ministry indicated last month it was holding onto some dry powder given domestic and overseas uncertainties. Chinese policymakers are expected to hold a regular meeting later this month. Chinese tech stock valuations still look inexpensive relative to those in the U.S., Citi China equity strategist Pierre Lau and a team said in a report Thursday. They pointed out that average price-to-earnings ratio of seven leading tech-related Chinese stocks is 52% below that of U.S “Magnificent Seven” — not yet recovered to the historical average of 33% in the past five years. “We prefer domestic over export plays amid uncertainties stemming from higher tariffs,” the Citi strategists said. They also prefer services over goods sectors, and also like growth more than value. The firm is overweight on China internet, technology and transportation stock sectors. Citi’s top China stock buys include social media and gaming company Tencent , electric car giant BYD and home appliance company Haier , all listed in Hong Kong. Growing investor interest In a sign of how much investor interest has grown, nearly one-quarter of international investors have turned more positive on Chinese tech, the Citi strategists said, citing the firm’s U.S. marketing work last month. Global emerging markets equity funds’ allocation to China hit a 16-month high in late March , according to EPFR. Chinese startup DeepSeek released an AI model in late January that claimed to outperform OpenAI’s ChatGPT, despite U.S. restrictions on Chinese access to advanced chips for AI training. AI adoption is also expected to help Chinese companies cut costs , while policy aims to support consumer growth. Initial upgrades to Chinese companies’ earnings expectations are being driven by high-tech sectors and selected consumer companies, HSBC analysts pointed out Thursday. An index of 10 major Chinese tech companies traded in Hong Kong closed 1.2% lower Thursday, slightly better than the overall Hang Seng index’s 1.5% drop. The tech index remains more than 20% higher year to date, versus gains of just under 14% for the Hang Seng index. Another sector investment analysts say is relatively sheltered from the new tariffs is Chinese health care as pharmaceuticals were excluded from Trump’s latest round of tariffs. “Even if Trump imposed any tariffs in the future, most Chinese biotechs have U.S. partners and are not considered exporters, and tariffs on bulk drug makers could easily be transferred to downstream U.S. pharma,” Jefferies equity analyst Cui Cui and a team said in a note Wednesday. They also don’t expect reviving targeted legislation, such as the expired Biosecure Act , to become a U.S. priority soon. The Biosecure Act sought to restrict Chinese drug companies such as Wuxi Biologics from federal contracts. “Given that lowering drug prices in the U.S. is supported by both Republicans and Democrats, giving U.S. pharma companies the flexibility to operate efficiently and maintain an optimal cost structure is essential,” the Jefferies analysts said, highlighting expectations that Wuxi Biologics can operate at least twice as efficiently than competitors Samsung Bio and Lonza. Hong Kong-listed Wuxi Biologics said in late March that it expected ” accelerated and profitable growth in 2025 .” Jefferies rates the stock a buy. However, the extent of new U.S. tariffs and impact on China’s economy remains unclear. Morningstar’s Wang cautioned that tariffs would indirectly affect the tech sector given the likely negative impact on China’s gross domestic product, while market volatility may increase.
Warren Buffett went on the record Friday to deny social media posts after President Donald Trump shared on Truth Social a fan video that claimed the president is tanking the stock market on purpose with the endorsement of the legendary investor.
Trump on Friday shared an outlandish social media video that defends his recent policy decisions by arguing he is deliberately taking down the market as a strategic play to force lower interest and mortgage rates.
“Trump is crashing the stock market by 20% this month, but he’s doing it on purpose,” alleged the video, which Trump posted on his Truth Social account.
The video’s narrator then falsely states, “And this is why Warren Buffett just said, ‘Trump is making the best economic moves he’s seen in over 50 years.'”
The president shared a link to an X post from the account @AmericaPapaBear, a self-described “Trumper to the end.” The X post itself appears to be a repost of a weeks-old TikTok video from user @wnnsa11. The video has been shared more than 2,000 times on Truth Social and nearly 10,000 times on X.
Buffett, 94, didn’t single out any specific posts, but his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway outright rejected all comments claimed to be made by him.
“There are reports currently circulating on social media (including Twitter, Facebook and Tik Tok) regarding comments allegedly made by Warren E. Buffett. All such reports are false,” the company said in a statement Friday.
CNBC’s Becky Quick spoke to Buffett Friday about this statement and he said he wanted to knock down misinformation in an age where false rumors can be blasted around instantaneously. Buffett told Quick that he won’t make any commentary related to the markets, the economy or tariffs between now and Berkshire’s annual meeting on May 3.
‘A tax on goods’
While Buffett hasn’t spoken about this week’s imposition of sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration, his view on such things has pretty much always been negative. Just in March, the Berkshire CEO and chairman called tariffs “an act of war, to some degree.”
“Over time, they are a tax on goods. I mean, the tooth fairy doesn’t pay ’em!” Buffett said in the news interview with a laugh. “And then what? You always have to ask that question in economics. You always say, ‘And then what?'”
During Trump’s first term, Buffett opined at length in 2018 and 2019 about the trade conflicts that erupted, warning that the Republican’s aggressive moves could cause negative consequences globally.
“If we actually have a trade war, it will be bad for the whole world … everything intersects in the world,” Buffett said in a CNBC interview in 2019. “A world that adjusts to something very close to free trade … more people will live better than in a world with significant tariffs and shifting tariffs over time.”
Buffett has been in a defensive mode over the past year as he rapidly dumped stocks and raised a record amount of cash exceeding $300 billion. His conglomerate has a big U.S. focus and has large businesses in insurance, railroads, manufacturing, energy and retail.
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading: Bank stocks — Major banks declined on Friday, as President Donald Trump’s new tariff policies increasingly raised fears of a U.S. economic pullback. Shares of Goldman Sachs , Citigroup , Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo tumbled about 8%. JPMorgan dropped 7%. Tesla , Palantir Technologies — Top picks among retail investors were not able to buck Friday’s sell-off. Electric vehicle maker Tesla dropped around 10%, while defense technology stock Palantir tumbled 12%. Property stocks — Real estate stocks Prologis and Simon Property Group each slipped about 3% on Friday. Property stocks are sensitive to consumers’ discretionary spending levels. Apple — Shares of the iPhone maker slid more than 5% on China’s retaliatory duties against the U.S. China makes up for about 80% of Apple’s production capacity with about 90% of iPhones assembled in the country, according to Evercore ISI estimates. China funds — China-focused exchange-traded funds fell after the country’s finance ministry announced a 34% tariff on U.S. imports beginning April 10, in response to the Trump administration’s cumulative 54% duty on Chinese goods. The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) declined more than 9%, while the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) and the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) dropped 7% each. Chipmakers — Semiconductor stocks with notable exposure to China slipped. Shares of Marvell Technology fell about 12%, while Intel lost 10%. Nvidia and Broadcom shares each declined more than 7%. Manufacturing stocks — Shares of farm and construction equipment manufacturers declined amid the latest tariff updates. Deere and CNH Industrial dropped 4% and 6%, respectively, while Caterpillar and AGCO tumbled more than 5%. UBS analyst Steven Fisher said in a note to clients that “the trade dynamics are a headwind to the ag sector and to farm machinery companies, as farmers tend to prefer free trade, rather than rely on government payments.” Boeing , GE Aerospace — Boeing slid more than 9%, and GE Aerospace dropped more than 8%. Trump’s raft of tariffs threaten to drive the cost of aircraft, engines and other aerospace products higher. Shell — Shares of the London-based energy company slid more than 8% after Trump’s tariffs led U.S. oil prices to drop to their lowest level since 2021 this week. Casino stocks — Casino operators in Macao declined on Friday. Shares of Las Vegas Sands slipped about 8%, while Wynn Resorts and MGM Resorts International each declined about 4%. — CNBC’s Alex Harring, Sean Conlon, Lisa Han and Hakyung Kim contributed reporting.