Connect with us

Economics

Private job creation totaled a stunning 233,000 in October, far more than expected, ADP says

Published

on

Private job creation totaled a stunning 233,000 in October, far more than expected, ADP says

Private-job creation burst to its highest level in more than a year during October, despite a devastating storm season in the Southeast and major labor disruptions, ADP reported Wednesday.

The payrolls processing firm said companies hired 233,000 new workers in the month, better than the upwardly revised 159,000 in September and far ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 113,000. ADP said it was the best month for job creation since July 2023.

“Even amid hurricane recovery, job growth was strong in October,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said. “As we round out the year, hiring in the U.S. is proving to be robust and broadly resilient.”

The numbers counter expectations for a slowdown in October on the heels of two brutal hurricanes — Helene and Milton — that ravaged the Southeast, with Florida and North Carolina getting slammed in particular.

On top of that, labor disruptions with port workers and Boeing were expecting to hit payrolls as well, with some economists suggesting that October would be an outlier report that Federal Reserve officials would largely dismiss when meeting next week.

However, the ADP report indicates that the labor market has held up. In addition to hiring rising, wages grew 4.6% from a year ago.

Moreover, gains were widespread. Leading sectors included education and health services (53,000), trade, transportation and utilities (51,000), construction and leisure and hospitality, which added 37,000 apiece, and professional and business services, which contributed 31,000.

Manufacturing was the only sector to report losses, down 19,000 on the month, as the Boeing strike since Sept. 13 has sidelined 33,000 of the company’s workers.

Job creation was strongly concentrated in companies with 500 or more employees, which added 140,000 of the total. Businesses with fewer than 50 workers were little changed, contributing just 4,000 of the total.

The ADP report traditionally tees up the more closely watched nonfarm payrolls count from the Bureau of Labor Services. That report, which comes Friday, is projected to show growth of just 100,000 and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.

However, the ADP and BLS reports can differ substantially, with the latter including government workers. The BLS report showed private job gains of 223,000 in September and 254,000 total payrolls growth.

Economics

California’s carbon market reaches an inflection point

Published

on

IT WAS THE equivalent of a warning siren. The results of California’s latest auction of carbon allowances, released on May 29th, showed that prices had hit the floor. Each quarter companies shell out for credits that cover their greenhouse-gas emissions. Demand is weak, and lower revenues from the auction are bad news for lawmakers who are already trying to plug a $12bn budget deficit. The poor showing is also a signal that firms are not confident that California’s cap-and-trade programme, the fourth-largest carbon market in the world, will continue to exist.

Continue Reading

Economics

Can AI predict Supreme Court rulings?

Published

on

This June may be the most harried for the Supreme Court’s justices in some time. On top of 30-odd rulings due by Independence Day, the court faces a steady stream of emergency pleas. Over 16 years, George W. Bush and Barack Obama filed a total of eight emergency applications in the Supreme Court (SCOTUS). In the past 20 weeks, as many of his executive orders have been blocked by lower courts, Donald Trump has filed 18.

Continue Reading

Economics

Companies already raise prices or plan to, blaming tariffs, data shows

Published

on

Johnson & Johnson manufacturing facility in Wilson, North Carolina.

Courtesy: Johnson & Johnson

Data from the New York Federal Reserve shows a majority of companies have passed along at least some of President Donald Trump’s tariffs onto customers, the latest in a growing body of evidence indicating the policy change is likely to stretch consumers’ wallets.

In May, about 77% of service firms that saw increased costs due to higher U.S. tariffs tariffs passed through at least at least some of the rise to clients, according to a survey conducted by the New York Fed that was released Wednesday. Around 75% of manufacturers surveyed said the same.

In fact, more than 30% of manufacturers and roughly 45% of service firms passed through all of the higher cost to their customers, according to the New York Fed’s statics.

Price hikes happened quickly after Trump slapped steep levies on trading partners, whether large or small. More than 35% of manufacturers and nearly 40% of service firms raised prices within a week of seeing tariff-related cost increases, according to the survey.

Trump announced in early April that he would impose “reciprocal” tariffs on more than 180 countries and territories, sending the stock market into a tailspin. But Trump soon rolled back or paused those levies for three months, unleashing the equity market to claw back most of its initial losses.

July deadline

Companies and investors alike are now looking to a July 9 deadline for the return of those suspended tariffs, coping in the meantime with continued confusion regarding to trade policy. The U.S. has already announced one trade deal with the United Kingdom, and Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender said this week that the Trump administration is “close to the finish line” on some other agreements.

The New York Fed’s survey is the latest in a salvo of data releases and anecdotal reports that have shown companies’ willingness to pass down cost increases despite pressure from Trump not to do so.

Nearly nine out of 10 of the 300 CEOs surveyed in May said they have raised prices or planned to soon, according to data released last week by Chief Executive Group and AlixPartners. About seven out of 10 chief executives surveyed in May said they plan to hike prices by at least 2.5%.

Corporate executives have been careful in how they speak about the impact of Trump’s policies on their business, especially when it comes to trade, to avoid getting caught in the president’s crosshairs. Last month, for example, Trump warned Walmart in a social media post that the retailer should “eat the tariffs” and that he would “be watching.”

Consequently, survey data and anonymous commentary offer insights into how American business leaders are discussing the tariffs behind closed doors.

“The administration’s tariffs alone have created supply chain disruptions rivaling that of Covid-19,” one respondent said in the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey published Monday.

Another respondent said “chaos does not bode well for anyone, especially when it impacts pricing.” While another pointed to the agreement between the U.S. and China to temporarily slash tariffs, they said the central question is what the landscape will look like in a few months.

‘Hugely distracting’

“We are doing extensive work to make contingency plans, which is hugely distracting from strategic work,” this respondent said. “It is also very hard to know what plans we should actually implement.”

Responses to the ISM service sector survey released Wednesday revealed a similar focus on the uncertainty stemming from controversial tariffs.

“Tariffs remain a challenge, as it is not clear what duties apply,” one respondent wrote. “The best plan is still to delay decisions to purchase where possible.”

Continue Reading

Trending