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Private payrolls expanded by 183,000 in January, topping expectations, ADP says

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Private payrolls expanded by 183,000 in January, topping expectations: ADP

Private sector companies added more jobs than expected in January, furthering the case for a stable labor market that allows the Federal Reserve time as it contemplates its next policy move, ADP reported Wednesday.

The payrolls processing firm said companies created a net 183,000 jobs on the month, slightly more than the 176,000 in December, a number that was revised sharply upward from the initial figure of 122,000. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a gain of 150,000.

Pay for workers who stayed in their jobs grew at a 4.7% annual rate, or 0.1 percentage point more than in December.

Though the headline ADP number topped expectations, the internals showed an unbalanced picture.

All of the job creation came from service providers, who added 190,000 positions while goods producers lost 6,000. (The numbers don’t add up to the 183,000 due to rounding.)

“We had a strong start to 2025 but it masked a dichotomy in the labor market,” APD’s chief economist, Nela Richardson, said. “Consumer-facing industries drove hiring, while job growth was weaker in business services and production.”

Trade, transportation and utilities topped sectors with 56,000 new jobs, with leisure and hospitality close behind at 54,000 and education and health services adding 20,000. However, manufacturing lost 13,000 positions.

Job creation was spread fairly evenly across business size, with companies that employ workers leading with 92,000.

Fed officials are watching the jobs picture closely as they consider whether to continue lowering interest rates. The Fed last year cut 1 percentage point off its key borrowing rate in an effort to support a labor market that had showed signs of slowing. Recently, policymakers have stressed the importance of staying patient as they watch the tariff battle in Washington as well as the impact from the rate reductions.

The ADP report serves as a run-up to the more closely watched nonfarm payrolls report, due Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which unlike ADP includes government workers. The consensus view for the BLS report is a gain of 169,000 in payrolls in January, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%.

The two reports sometimes differ significantly. However, ADP said it continues to expand its sample size for the pay measure portion, which is now at 14.8 million compared with nearly 10 million when it launched.

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Consumer confidence in where the economy is headed hits 12-year low

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Shoppers walk near a Nordstrom store at the Westfield UTC shopping center on Jan. 31, 2025 in San Diego, California.

Kevin Carter | Getty Images

Consumer confidence dimmed further in March as the view of future conditions fell to the lowest level in more than a decade, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.

The board’s monthly confidence index of current conditions slipped to 92.9, a 7.2-point decline and the fourth consecutive monthly contraction. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a reading of 93.5.

However, the measure for future expectations told an even darker story, with the index tumbling 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the 80 level that is considered a signal for a recession ahead.

The index measures respondents’ outlook for income, business and job prospects.

“Consumers’ optimism about future income — which had held up quite strongly in the past few months — largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.

The survey comes amid worries over President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs against U.S. imports, which has coincided with a volatile stock market and other surveys showing waning sentiment.

The fall in confidence was driven by a decline in those 55 or older but was spread across income groups.

In addition to the general pessimism, the outlook for the stock market slid sharply, with just 37.4% of respondents expecting higher equity prices in the next year. That marked a 10 percentage point drop from February and was the first time the view turned negative since late-2023.

The view on the labor market also weakened, with those expecting more jobs to be available falling to 16.7%, while those expecting fewer jobs rose to 28.5%. The respective February readings were 18.8% and 26.6%.

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A shambolic leak reveals Team Trump’s contempt for allies

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MANY KNOW the mortification of sending the wrong text message to the wrong person. But when the fat thumb is that of America’s national security adviser, Mike Waltz, the message is a detailed military plan to bomb Yemen and the recipient is a prominent journalist, the error is not just a cause of shame but potentially a serious breach of national security.

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