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Private payrolls increased by 184,000 in March, better than expected, ADP says

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Private sector job growth expanded in March at its fastest pace since July 2023, indicating continuing buoyance in the U.S. labor market, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday.

Companies added 184,000 workers on the month, an increase from the upwardly revised February gain of 155,000, which also was the Dow Jones estimate for March.

In addition to the strong employment pickup, ADP reported that wages for workers who stayed in their jobs increased 5.1% from a year ago, the same rate as February after showing a steady easing going well back into 2023. Those switching jobs saw gains of 10%, also higher than in previous months.

“March was surprising not just for the pay gains, but the sectors that recorded them,” said ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson. “Inflation has been cooling, but our data shows pay is heating up in both goods and services.”

Job gains were fairly broad-based, led by leisure and hospitality with 63,000. Other sectors showing significant increases included construction (33,000), trade, transportation and utilities (29,000), and education and health services (17,000). Professional and business services saw a loss of 8,000.

Services-related industries accounted for 142,000 of the total, with goods providing the rest. ADP, whose survey is based on payroll data analysis of more than 25 million workers, does not track government jobs.

Most of the growth came from companies that employ more than 50 workers, with small businesses adding just 16,000 to the total. From a regional standpoint, the South saw the biggest gains, adding 91,000 workers.

The ADP estimate serves as a precursor to the Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls survey, set to be released Friday, though the numbers often diverge sharply. The department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported job growth of 275,000 in February, or 120,000 more than even ADP’s revised figure. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the March count to show growth of 200,000.

Solid payroll growth along with improving inflation has allowed the Federal Reserve to be patient in its approach to easing monetary policy. Central bank officials expect to start cutting interest rates later this year but have said in recent days that they haven’t seen enough evidence yet that inflation is on a sustained path lower to begin reductions.

Economics

UK inflation September 2024

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The Canary Wharf business district is seen in the distance behind autumnal leaves on October 09, 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. dropped sharply to 1.7% in September, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the headline rate to come in at a higher 1.9% for the month, in the first dip of the print below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021.

Inflation has been hovering around that level for the last four months, and came in at 2.2% in August.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.2% for the month, down from 3.6% in August and below the 3.4% forecast of a Reuters poll.

Price rises in the services sector, the dominant portion of the U.K. economy, eased significantly to 4.9% last month from 5.6% in August, now hitting its lowest rate since May 2022.

Core and services inflation are key watch points for Bank of England policymakers as they mull whether to cut interest rates again at their November meeting.

As of Wednesday morning, market pricing put an 80% probability on a November rate cut ahead of the latest inflation print. Analysts on Tuesday said lower wage growth reported by the ONS this week had supported the case for a cut. The BOE reduced its key rate by 25 basis points in August before holding in September.

Within the broader European region, inflation in the euro zone dipped below the European Central Bank’s 2% target last month, hitting 1.8%, according to the latest data.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.

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Economics

Why Larry Hogan’s long-odds bid for a Senate seat matters

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FEW REPUBLICAN politicians differ more from Donald Trump than Larry Hogan, the GOP Senate candidate in Maryland. Consider the contrasts between a Trump rally and a Hogan event. Whereas Mr Trump prefers to take the stage and riff in front of packed arenas, Mr Hogan spent a recent Friday night chatting with locals at a waterfront wedding venue in Baltimore County. Mr Hogan’s stump speech, at around ten minutes, felt as long as a single off-script Trump tangent. Mr Trump delights in defying his advisers; Mr Hogan fastidiously sticks to talking points about bipartisanship, good governance and overcoming tough odds. Put another way, Mr Hogan’s campaign is something Mr Trump is rarely accused of being: boring. But it is intriguing.

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Economics

Polarisation by education is remaking American politics

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DEPENDING ON where exactly you find yourself, western Pennsylvania can feel Appalachian, Midwestern, booming or downtrodden. No matter where, however, this part of the state feels like the centre of the American political universe. Since she became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris has visited Western Pennsylvania six times—more often than Philadelphia, on the other side of the state. She will mark her seventh on a trip on October 14th, to the small city of Erie, where Donald Trump also held a rally recently. Democratic grandees flit through Pittsburgh regularly. It is where Ms Harris chose to unveil the details of her economic agenda, and it is where Barack Obama visited on October 10th to deliver encouragement and mild chastisement. “Do not just sit back and hope for the best,” he admonished. “Get off your couch and vote.”

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