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Ray Dalio names the top five forces shaping the global economy

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Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates LP, speaks during an interview on the sidelines of the Milken Institute Asia Summit in Singapore, on Wednesday, 

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

SINGAPORE — U.S. billionaire Ray Dalio named the top five forces at the front and center of the world’s economy. 

Speaking at the Milken Institute’s Asia Summit in Singapore, the founder of Bridgewater Associates said the five factors are interrelated and often cyclical. Dalio made his remarks Wednesday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

1. Debt, money and the economic cycle

With uncertainty still circling around what the Fed will do at its meeting this week, Dalio raised concerns about how the country’s debt will be managed.

“We’re going to have a Fed interest rate change, and [what will] that whole dynamic do? What happens to all the debt? How will that be dealt with?” he mused. 

The U.S. central bank has kept benchmark rates at their highest level in 23 years, leading the government to allocate $1.049 trillion for debt service — an increase of 30% compared with a year ago. This is part of an anticipated total of $1.158 trillion in payments for the entire year.

“What is the value of it and as one man’s debts or another man’s assets? How is it as a storehold of wealth? These are important questions that are pressing questions,” he threw the question out to attendees.

2. Internal order and disorder

“The second is the issue of internal order and disorder,” Dalio said, referring to U.S. politics ahead of the election.

“There are irreconcilable differences between the right and the left, prompted by large wealth and value gaps… and they call into question even the orderly transition of power,” he added.

For the first time in the 2024 election cycle, Vice President Kamala Harris is now considered more likely to win than former President Donald Trump, a CNBC Fed Survey released Tuesday showed.

Last week, the candidates debated issues from abortion rights to tariffs and other policy proposals.

Still, no matter who occupies the White House, the president’s policy agenda has limited impact on the overall health of the U.S. economy.

3. Great power conflicts

Dalio cited geopolitics as his third concern: namely, the relationship between the U.S. and China.

The U.S.-China relationship has been defined by a range of ongoing tensions, such as territorial issues in the South China Sea, Taiwan’s political status and economic tariffs.

“I think probably, there’s a fear of war that will stand in the way — mutually assured destruction. But it’s disorder,” he emphasized later, without naming a specific ignition point.

4. ‘Acts of nature’

5. Technology

Technology is going to “be fantastic” if one is able to adopt and invest in it appropriately, the billionaire said.

“The potential productivity benefits of that are enormous,” he said, elaborating that technology produces unicorn companies, and when it does — a sliver of the population fares better.

“Whoever wins the technology war is going to win the military war,” he further said.

As he assessed the five factors on a whole, Dalio concluded that the “surprises are more on the downside than the upside,” he said.

Economics

A protest against America’s TikTok ban is mired in contradiction

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AS A SHUTDOWN looms, TikTok in America has the air of the last day of school. The Brits are saying goodbye to the Americans. Australians are waiting in the wings to replace banished American influencers. And American users are bidding farewell to their fictional Chinese spies—a joke referencing the American government’s accusation that China is using the app (which is owned by ByteDance, a Chinese tech giant) to surveil American citizens.

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Economics

Home insurance costs soar as climate events surge, Treasury Dept. says

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Firefighters battle flames during the Eaton Fire in Pasadena, California, U.S., Jan. 7, 2025.

Mario Anzuoni | Reuters

Climate-related natural disasters are driving up insurance costs for homeowners in the most-affected regions, according to a Treasury Department report released Thursday.

In a voluminous study covering 2018-22 and including some data beyond that, the department found that there were 84 disasters costing $1 billion or more, excluding floods, and that they caused a combined $609 billion in damages. Floods are not covered under homeowner policies.

During the period, costs for policies across all categories rose 8.7% faster than the rate of inflation. However, the burden went largely to those living in areas most hit by climate-related events.

For consumers living in the 20% of zip codes with the highest expected annual losses, premiums averaged $2,321, or 82% more than those living in the 20% of lowest-risk zip codes.

“Homeowners insurance is becoming more costly and less accessible for consumers as the costs of climate-related events pose growing challenges to both homeowners and insurers alike,” said Nellie Liang, undersecretary of the Treasury for domestic finance.

The report comes as rescue workers continue to battle raging wildfires in the Los Angeles area. At least 25 people have been killed and 180,000 homeowners have been displaced.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the costs from the fires are still unknown, but noted that the report reflected an ongoing serious problem. During the period studied, there was nearly double the annual total of disasters declared for climate-related events as in the period of 1960-2010 combined.

“Moreover, this [wildfire disaster] does not stand alone as evidence of this impact, with other climate-related events leading to challenges for Americans in finding affordable insurance coverage – from severe storms in the Great Plans to hurricanes in the Southeast,” Yellen said in a statement. “This report identifies alarming trends of rising costs of insurance, all of which threaten the long-term prosperity of American families.”

Both homeowners and insurers in the most-affected areas were paying in other ways as well.

Nonrenewal rates in the highest-risk areas were about 80% higher than those in less-risky areas, while insurers paid average claims of $24,000 in higher-risk areas compared to $19,000 in lowest-risk regions.

In the Southeast, which includes states such as Florida and Louisiana that frequently are slammed by hurricanes, the claim frequency was 20% higher than the national average.

In the Southwest, which includes California, wildfires tore through 3.3 million acres during the time period, with five events causing more than $100 million in damages. The average loss claim was nearly $27,000, or nearly 50% higher than the national average. Nonrenewal rates for insurance were 23.5% higher than the national average.

The Treasury Department released its findings with just three days left in the current administration. Treasury officials said they hope the administration under President-elect Donald Trump uses the report as a springboard for action.

“We certainly are hopeful that our successors stay focused on this issue and continue to produce important research on this issue and think about important and creative ways to address it,” an official said.

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Economics

How bad will the smoke be for Angelenos’ health?

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Where there is fire, there is smoke. For the people of Los Angeles, this will add to the misery. Some are already suffering from burning throats and irritated eyes. Many miles from the wildfires, people are wearing masks; shops are running out. The fires may also cause long-term problems.

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