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Saudi Arabia’s spending is adopting a clear shift in strategy

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Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Xavierarnau | E+ | Getty Images

Saudi Arabia is moving full steam ahead with its focus on domestic investment — and with that, higher requirements for foreigners coming to the kingdom to take capital elsewhere.

The kingdom’s $925 billion sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, saw its assets jump 29% to 2.87 trillion Saudi riyals ($765.2 billion) in 2023, its annual report published earlier this week revealed — and local investment was a major driver.

The fund’s investments in domestic infrastructure and real estate development grew 15% year-on-year to 233 billion riyals, while its foreign investments increased 14% to 586 billion riyals. At the same time, the Saudi government introduced laws and reforms to facilitate and even mandate investment in the country as it builds out its Vision 2030 plan to diversity its oil-reliant economy.

“The PIF’s report marks a shift from externally driven investments to a focus on domestic opportunities. The days of viewing Saudi Arabia as a mere financial reservoir are ending,” Tarik Solomon, chairman emeritus at the American Chamber of Commerce in Saudi Arabia, told CNBC.

“Today, success with the PIF hinges on partnerships grounded in mutual trust and long-term vision, where stakeholders are expected to contribute meaningfully with capital and not just seek profits.”

One example is the kingdom’s headquarters law, which went into effect on Jan. 1, 2024, and requires foreign companies operating in the Gulf to base their Middle Eastern HQ offices in Riyadh if they want contracts with the Saudi government.

Watch CNBC's interview with Saudi Arabia's assistant minister of investment

Saudi Arabia’s recently-updated Investment Law seeks to attract more foreign investment as well — and it’s set itself a lofty goal of $100 billion in annual foreign direct investment by 2030.

Currently, that figure has averaged around $12 billion per year since Vision 2030 was announced in 2017, according to data from the kingdom’s investment ministry — still a long way from that goal.

Some observers in the region are skeptical as to whether the $100 billion figure is realistic.

“The new investment law is absolutely critical to facilitating more FDI, but it remains to be seen whether it will lead to the huge increase and quantum of capital required,” a financier based in the Gulf told CNBC, speaking anonymously due to professional restrictions.

Solomon echoed the sentiment, pointing out that higher spending on major projects will require higher breakeven oil prices for the Saudi budget.

“It remains to be seen whether the PIF’s domestic investments will deliver the anticipated returns, especially in a region full of instability and oil-dependent budgets facing prolonged periods of low oil prices,” he said.

Watch CNBC's full interview with Saudi Arabia's minister of economy

Still, the new law will “improve local business conditions to attract investment from abroad,” James Swanston, Middle East and North Africa economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a recent report.

Investors have long complained that murky and often ad-hoc rules deterred greater involvement with the Saudi economy. The new law will make foreign investors’ rights and duties uniform with those of citizens, introduce a simplified registration process to replace license requirements, and ease the judicial process, among other things, according to the Saudi government.

“We’ve argued for a long time that so-called ‘wasta’ (loosely translated as ‘who you know’) has been a major deterrent to foreign companies establishing themselves in Saudi,” Swanston wrote.

Spurring greater foreign buy-in “should also ease the burden that has recently been placed on the Public Investment Fund to offset the weaker foreign investment into the Kingdom,” he added.

No more ‘dumb money’

The turn toward greater scrutiny and domestic priorities is not exactly new — rather, it’s picked up more speed each year.

While many overseas firms have long seen the Gulf as a source of “dumb money,” some local investment managers said — referring to the stereotype of oil-rich sheikhdoms throwing cash at whoever wants it — investment from the region has become much more sophisticated, employing deeper due diligence and being more selective than in past years.

“Before it was much easier to come and say, ‘I’m a fund manager from San Francisco, please give me a couple million’,” Marc Nassim, partner and managing director at Dubai-based investment bank Awad Capital, told CNBC in 2023.

“I think that a very small minority of them will be able to take money from the region — they are much more selective than before.”

If the kingdom’s priority was not clear to foreign investors before, it is now, the Gulf-based financier who declined to be named said.

“PIF has been focused on co-opting investment into Saudi for last several years,” he said. “It took a while for bankers to fully appreciate the scope and scale of the pivot. It’s rightly all about transforming the economy.”

Economics

Will Elon Musk’s cash splash pay off in Wisconsin?

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TO GET A sense of what the Republican Party thinks of the electoral value of Elon Musk, listen to what Brad Schimel, a conservative candidate for the Supreme Court of Wisconsin, has to say about the billionaire. At an event on March 29th at an airsoft range (a more serious version of paintball) just outside Kenosha, five speakers, including Mr Schimel, spoke for over an hour about the importance of the election to the Republican cause. Mr Musk’s political action committees (PACs) have poured over $20m into the race, far more than any other donor’s. But over the course of the event, his name came up precisely zero times.

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Economics

German inflation, March 2025

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Customers shop for fresh fruits and vegetables in a supermarket in Munich, Germany, on March 8, 2025.

Michael Nguyen | Nurphoto | Getty Images

German inflation came in at a lower-than-expected 2.3% in March, preliminary data from the country’s statistics office Destatis showed Monday.

It compares to February’s 2.6% print, which was revised lower from a preliminary reading, and a poll of Reuters economists who had been expecting inflation to come in at 2.4% The print is harmonized across the euro area for comparability. 

On a monthly basis, harmonized inflation rose 0.4%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, came in at 2.5%, below February’s 2.7% reading.

Meanwhile services inflation, which had long been sticky, also eased to 3.4% in March, from 3.8% in the previous month.

The data comes at a critical time for the German economy as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs loom and fiscal and economic policy shifts at home could be imminent.

Trade is a key pillar for the German economy, making it more vulnerable to the uncertainty and quickly changing developments currently dominating global trade policy. A slew of levies from the U.S. are set to come into force this week, including 25% tariffs on imported cars — a sector that is key to Germany’s economy. The country’s political leaders and car industry heavyweights have slammed Trump’s plans.

Meanwhile Germany’s political parties are working to establish a new coalition government following the results of the February 2025 federal election. Negotiations are underway between the Christian Democratic Union, alongside its sister party the Christian Social Union, and the Social Democratic Union.

While various points of contention appear to remain between the parties, their talks have already yielded some results. Earlier this month, Germany’s lawmakers voted in favor of a major fiscal package, which included amendments to long-standing debt rules to allow for higher defense spending and a 500-billion-euro ($541 billion) infrastructure fund.

This is a breaking news story, please check back for updates.

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Economics

First-quarter GDP growth will be just 0.3% as tariffs stoke stagflation conditions, says CNBC survey

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U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media aboard Air Force One before landing in West Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., March 28, 2025. 

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

Policy uncertainty and new sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration are combining to create a stagflationary outlook for the U.S. economy in the latest CNBC Rapid Update.

The Rapid Update, averaging forecasts from 14 economists for GDP and inflation, sees first quarter growth registering an anemic 0.3% compared with the 2.3% reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. It would be the weakest growth since 2022 as the economy emerged from the pandemic.

Core PCE inflation, meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year before resuming its decline in the fourth quarter.

Behind the dour GDP forecasts is new evidence that the decline in consumer and business sentiment is showing up in real economic activity. The Commerce Department on Friday reported that real, or inflation-adjusted consumer spending in February rose just 0.1%, after a decline of -0.6% in January. Action Economics dropped its outlook for spending growth to just 0.2% in this quarter from 4% in the fourth quarter.

“Signs of slowing in hard activity data are becoming more convincing, following an earlier worsening in sentiment,” wrote Barclays over the weekend.

Another factor: a surge of imports (which subtract from GDP) that appear to have poured into the U.S. ahead of tariffs.

The good news is the import effect should abate and only two of the 12 economists surveyed see negative growth in Q1. None forecast consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Oxford Economics, which has the lowest Q1 estimate at -1.6%, expects a continued drag from imports but sees second quarter GDP rebounding to 1.9%, because those imports will eventually end up boosting growth when they are counted in inventory or sales measures.

Recession risks rising

On average, most economists forecast a gradual rebound, with second quarter GDP averaging 1.4%, third quarter at 1.6% and the final quarter of the year rising to 2%.

The danger is an economy with anemic growth of just 0.3% could easily slip into negative territory. And, with new tariffs set to come this week, not everyone is so sure about a rebound.

“While our baseline doesn’t show a decline in real GDP, given the mounting global trade war and DOGE cuts to jobs and funding, there is a good chance GDP will decline in the first and even the second quarters of this year,” said Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics. “And a recession will be likely if the president doesn’t begin backtracking on the tariffs by the third quarter.”

Moody’s looks for anemic Q1 growth of just 0.4% that rebounds to 1.6% by year end, which is still modestly below trend.

Stubborn inflation will complicate the Fed’s ability to respond to flagging growth. Core PCE is expected at 2.8% this quarter, rising to 3% next quarter and staying roughly at that level until in drops to 2.6% a year from now.

While the market looks to be banking on rate cuts, the Fed could find them difficult to justify until inflation begins falling more convincingly at the end of the year.

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