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Saudi Arabia’s spending is adopting a clear shift in strategy

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Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

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Saudi Arabia is moving full steam ahead with its focus on domestic investment — and with that, higher requirements for foreigners coming to the kingdom to take capital elsewhere.

The kingdom’s $925 billion sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, saw its assets jump 29% to 2.87 trillion Saudi riyals ($765.2 billion) in 2023, its annual report published earlier this week revealed — and local investment was a major driver.

The fund’s investments in domestic infrastructure and real estate development grew 15% year-on-year to 233 billion riyals, while its foreign investments increased 14% to 586 billion riyals. At the same time, the Saudi government introduced laws and reforms to facilitate and even mandate investment in the country as it builds out its Vision 2030 plan to diversity its oil-reliant economy.

“The PIF’s report marks a shift from externally driven investments to a focus on domestic opportunities. The days of viewing Saudi Arabia as a mere financial reservoir are ending,” Tarik Solomon, chairman emeritus at the American Chamber of Commerce in Saudi Arabia, told CNBC.

“Today, success with the PIF hinges on partnerships grounded in mutual trust and long-term vision, where stakeholders are expected to contribute meaningfully with capital and not just seek profits.”

One example is the kingdom’s headquarters law, which went into effect on Jan. 1, 2024, and requires foreign companies operating in the Gulf to base their Middle Eastern HQ offices in Riyadh if they want contracts with the Saudi government.

Watch CNBC's interview with Saudi Arabia's assistant minister of investment

Saudi Arabia’s recently-updated Investment Law seeks to attract more foreign investment as well — and it’s set itself a lofty goal of $100 billion in annual foreign direct investment by 2030.

Currently, that figure has averaged around $12 billion per year since Vision 2030 was announced in 2017, according to data from the kingdom’s investment ministry — still a long way from that goal.

Some observers in the region are skeptical as to whether the $100 billion figure is realistic.

“The new investment law is absolutely critical to facilitating more FDI, but it remains to be seen whether it will lead to the huge increase and quantum of capital required,” a financier based in the Gulf told CNBC, speaking anonymously due to professional restrictions.

Solomon echoed the sentiment, pointing out that higher spending on major projects will require higher breakeven oil prices for the Saudi budget.

“It remains to be seen whether the PIF’s domestic investments will deliver the anticipated returns, especially in a region full of instability and oil-dependent budgets facing prolonged periods of low oil prices,” he said.

Watch CNBC's full interview with Saudi Arabia's minister of economy

Still, the new law will “improve local business conditions to attract investment from abroad,” James Swanston, Middle East and North Africa economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a recent report.

Investors have long complained that murky and often ad-hoc rules deterred greater involvement with the Saudi economy. The new law will make foreign investors’ rights and duties uniform with those of citizens, introduce a simplified registration process to replace license requirements, and ease the judicial process, among other things, according to the Saudi government.

“We’ve argued for a long time that so-called ‘wasta’ (loosely translated as ‘who you know’) has been a major deterrent to foreign companies establishing themselves in Saudi,” Swanston wrote.

Spurring greater foreign buy-in “should also ease the burden that has recently been placed on the Public Investment Fund to offset the weaker foreign investment into the Kingdom,” he added.

No more ‘dumb money’

The turn toward greater scrutiny and domestic priorities is not exactly new — rather, it’s picked up more speed each year.

While many overseas firms have long seen the Gulf as a source of “dumb money,” some local investment managers said — referring to the stereotype of oil-rich sheikhdoms throwing cash at whoever wants it — investment from the region has become much more sophisticated, employing deeper due diligence and being more selective than in past years.

“Before it was much easier to come and say, ‘I’m a fund manager from San Francisco, please give me a couple million’,” Marc Nassim, partner and managing director at Dubai-based investment bank Awad Capital, told CNBC in 2023.

“I think that a very small minority of them will be able to take money from the region — they are much more selective than before.”

If the kingdom’s priority was not clear to foreign investors before, it is now, the Gulf-based financier who declined to be named said.

“PIF has been focused on co-opting investment into Saudi for last several years,” he said. “It took a while for bankers to fully appreciate the scope and scale of the pivot. It’s rightly all about transforming the economy.”

Economics

UK inflation September 2024

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The Canary Wharf business district is seen in the distance behind autumnal leaves on October 09, 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. dropped sharply to 1.7% in September, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the headline rate to come in at a higher 1.9% for the month, in the first dip of the print below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021.

Inflation has been hovering around that level for the last four months, and came in at 2.2% in August.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.2% for the month, down from 3.6% in August and below the 3.4% forecast of a Reuters poll.

Price rises in the services sector, the dominant portion of the U.K. economy, eased significantly to 4.9% last month from 5.6% in August, now hitting its lowest rate since May 2022.

Core and services inflation are key watch points for Bank of England policymakers as they mull whether to cut interest rates again at their November meeting.

As of Wednesday morning, market pricing put an 80% probability on a November rate cut ahead of the latest inflation print. Analysts on Tuesday said lower wage growth reported by the ONS this week had supported the case for a cut. The BOE reduced its key rate by 25 basis points in August before holding in September.

Within the broader European region, inflation in the euro zone dipped below the European Central Bank’s 2% target last month, hitting 1.8%, according to the latest data.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.

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Why Larry Hogan’s long-odds bid for a Senate seat matters

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FEW REPUBLICAN politicians differ more from Donald Trump than Larry Hogan, the GOP Senate candidate in Maryland. Consider the contrasts between a Trump rally and a Hogan event. Whereas Mr Trump prefers to take the stage and riff in front of packed arenas, Mr Hogan spent a recent Friday night chatting with locals at a waterfront wedding venue in Baltimore County. Mr Hogan’s stump speech, at around ten minutes, felt as long as a single off-script Trump tangent. Mr Trump delights in defying his advisers; Mr Hogan fastidiously sticks to talking points about bipartisanship, good governance and overcoming tough odds. Put another way, Mr Hogan’s campaign is something Mr Trump is rarely accused of being: boring. But it is intriguing.

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Polarisation by education is remaking American politics

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DEPENDING ON where exactly you find yourself, western Pennsylvania can feel Appalachian, Midwestern, booming or downtrodden. No matter where, however, this part of the state feels like the centre of the American political universe. Since she became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris has visited Western Pennsylvania six times—more often than Philadelphia, on the other side of the state. She will mark her seventh on a trip on October 14th, to the small city of Erie, where Donald Trump also held a rally recently. Democratic grandees flit through Pittsburgh regularly. It is where Ms Harris chose to unveil the details of her economic agenda, and it is where Barack Obama visited on October 10th to deliver encouragement and mild chastisement. “Do not just sit back and hope for the best,” he admonished. “Get off your couch and vote.”

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