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S&P 500 earnings hinge on Trump, Harris tax plans, Goldman says

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Tax policies touted in the U.S. presidential election could have a big impact on S&P 500 earnings, according to Goldman Sachs Inc. strategists.

They estimate profits could shift in the ballpark range of 5% to 10%, depending on how the policies are enacted and whether Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts are allowed to expire, the team including Ben Snider and David Kostin wrote in a note dated Sept. 4.

While Republican nominee Trump’s proposals would likely boost earnings, those floated by his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris would have the opposite effect, the strategists said. But they noted that both candidates’ tax pledges would face hurdles to get enacted.

Trump’s promise to cut the federal corporate tax rate to 15% from 21% would raise S&P 500 earnings by about 4%, the strategists wrote. Harris’ proposal to lift the rate to 28% would reduce earnings by about 5%, they said, while changes to the taxation of foreign income and an increase in the alternative minimum tax rate would cut earnings by about 8%.

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Traders work in the S&P options pit at the Cboe Global Markets exchange in Chicago.

Alex Wroblewski/Bloomberg

In addition, the extension or expiry of the tax cuts enacted by the Trump administration in 2017 would shift S&P 500 earnings by as much as 2%, they said.

“These sensitivities only reflect the direct impact of changing tax policy and do not take into account secondary impacts, such as through changes in economic activity,” the strategists wrote. And they added a caveat: “Prediction markets show a substantial probability that the next U.S. president will not have control over Congress, and campaign proposals do not always translate into legislative reality.”

Trump and running mate JD Vance are campaigning on a grab bag of tax cut proposals that could collectively cost as much as $10.5 trillion over a decade, more than the combined budgets of every domestic federal agency. Harris has also called for some tax cuts — like exempting tips from taxation and expanding the child tax credit — that would cost roughly $2 trillion and be paid for through increased taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals.

The 2017 Trump tax overhaul boosted earnings-per-share for S&P 500 companies by 12% the following year, and resulted in a rally in the index of about 10%. Still, this time round it is likely that “most investors will wait for legislative clarity before fully adjusting portfolios to reflect any changes in tax policy,” the Goldman strategists wrote.

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QBO vs. QuickBooks Desktop, and other tech stories you may have missed

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David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

Microsoft’s Recall AI tool — which captures and indexes screenshots of user activity every three seconds — is being reintroduced after facing significant privacy concerns when it was initially announced in 2024. Now available to Windows 11 Insiders, the feature requires users to opt-in and authenticate via Windows Hello, aiming to address earlier criticisms. However, privacy advocates remain apprehensive, noting that even with these measures, sensitive information from non-users can still be inadvertently captured and stored on others’ devices. This raises ongoing concerns about data security and the potential for misuse, despite Microsoft’s efforts to enhance privacy controls. (Source: Wired

Why this is important for your firm and clients: Of course there’s data and privacy issues. Think about it: If you opt-in, then all of the activity on your device is being captured by Microsoft and then stored who-knows-where in the cloud. But on the upside, it will make recovering from a problem — a malware attack, a natural disaster — much faster, which could reduce losses. Like everything in tech, there’s a trade-off. Do you give up your privacy and your confidential information for increased productivity? There’s no right or wrong answer. Everything is judged by risk vs. reward. In case you’re wondering, I’ll opt-in. 

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Accounting

Trump tax plan gains momentum in House before floor vote

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President Donald Trump’s signature economic package took a major step toward becoming law when the House Ways and Means Committee approved trillions in new tax cuts for corporations, households and small businesses on a party-line vote. 

The bill, once it clears procedural steps, will head to the House floor for passage. But crucial issues — including an unresolved battle over the state and local tax deduction — threaten to delay or imperil Republicans’ legislative agenda. Lawmakers are continuing to meet behind closed doors to negotiate the SALT write-off and spending cuts in the bill as they aim to pass the legislation in the House by the end of the month. 

“The one big beautiful bill is the key to making America great again,” Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith said on Tuesday, kicking off the debate on the legislation.

The bill would permanently extend the lower individual tax rates enacted under Trump in 2017 including a lower 37% rate for the highest earners, after Republicans debated the possibility of raising levies on millionaires. The legislation also brings to life many of the promises Trump floated as a presidential candidate: eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay and creating new deductions for seniors and car buyers.

Those tax cuts begin this year and will last through 2028, coinciding with Trump’s time in the White House.

The plan also calls for a slew of cuts for companies, including expanding or renewing write-offs for business profits, loan expenses, equipment investments and research costs.

The biggest open question is how to address the SALT deduction. The bill calls for increasing the $10,000 cap on SALT to $30,000, with a phaseout for most filers making more than $400,000. Republicans representing high-tax areas have rejected that amount and have threatened to block the bill unless the write-off is made even bigger.

“There’s going to be bumps along the way in this process,” Smith told reporters Tuesday. 

The vote in the House tax committee came after a marathon session in which Democrats assailed the bill, casting it as disproportionately benefiting the wealthy and large corporations while adding trillions to the national debt.  

“This isn’t about growth or economic prosperity, it’s about protecting the ultra-wealthy,” Representative Richard Neal, the committee’s top Democrat, said. “It’s a tax cut for billionaires.”

The tax provisions are projected to add $3.8 trillion to deficits over the next decade, according to the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation. Spending cuts approved by other House committees do not come close to offsetting those reductions. Republicans argue that economic growth stemming from the tax cuts would ultimately erase those deficit increases, but economists are skeptical of that claim. 

The bill also increases the child tax credit to $2,500 from $2,000 on a short-term basis, broadens health savings accounts and creates a new tax-preferred savings plan for children.

These breaks are partially paid for by ending many of the renewable energy tax benefits enacted under former President Joe Biden, including a credit for buying electric vehicles. University endowments, private foundations, sports team franchises and immigrants sending money to their home countries also face higher levies. Proposals to increase taxes on other businesses, including an increase in taxes on carried interest, were beaten back in a lobbying frenzy.

The House is aiming to vote next week. Republican lawmakers are hoping to move the package without the help of Democrats through the Senate and to Trump’s desk by July 4.  

Senate leaders have said the real deadline is the federal borrowing limit. The Treasury Department has said they will run out of borrowing authority as soon as August.

— With assistance from Derek Wallbank, Emily Birnbaum and Billy House

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Accounting

In the blogs: Higher questions

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Valuations this year; handling interviewees; AI and accounting ed.; and other highlights from our favorite tax bloggers.

Higher questions

Haunting of the Hill House

  • Eide Bailly (https://www.eidebailly.com/taxblog): The House Ways and Means Committee planned to begin to publicly debate and amend tax legislation on May 13, with the ultimate goal to produce the “one big, beautiful” bill to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: “This is the stage where seemingly dead and buried ideas mysteriously come back to life to haunt the proceedings.” 
  • Wiss (https://wiss.com/insights/read/): Key highlights of the proposed beauty.
  • Current Federal Tax Developments (https://www.currentfederaltaxdevelopments.com/): And a bulleted summary.
  • Tax Vox (https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox): If Congress expands the Child Tax Credit with TCJA extension, who might benefit and what might it cost?
  • Tax Foundation (www.taxfoundation.org/blog): Policymakers will also decide the fate of the SALT cap. Debate rages about making the cap more generous, along with possible limits on pass-through workarounds and SALT deductions  by corporations. While capping business SALT could raise additional revenue, it would risk slowing economic growth.

Soft skills

Rational decisions

Tidying up

  • Boyum & Barenscheer (https://www.myboyum.com/blog/): Should you vacuum the meeting room? How many times should you talk with a candidate? Keys — some often overlooked — to effective interviewing.
  • The National Association of Tax Professionals (https://blog.natptax.com/): A WISP is the written information security plan that verifies how your firm protects taxpayer information. You can’t ignore them anymore, and here’s how to build a compliant one.
  • Taxing Subjects (https://www.drakesoftware.com/blog): An outstanding guide to SEO for accounting firms. 
  • AICPA & CIMA Insights (https://www.aicpa-cima.com/blog): Where does AI fit into accounting education? Everywhere.

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