Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading: Victoria’s Secret — Shares dropped 3.5% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of the stock with a sell rating, saying it sees a “tough macro and ongoing competitive pressure” for the lingerie company in the near term. Longer term, the firm is constructive on the company’s loyalty initiatives and renewed merchandise focus. Meta Platforms — The Facebook parent company plunged more than 11%. Meta reported lighter-than-expected second-quarter revenue guidance on Wednesday, and CEO Mark Zuckerberg spoke about spending in areas such as artificial intelligence and mixed reality that are not currently profitable. Meta’s first-quarter earnings and revenue both came above analysts’ estimates, however. Tech stocks — Shares of major tech giants dropped on Thursday as Meta’s lackluster revenue outlook led to declines across the sector. Microsoft and Alphabet shares dropped roughly 3% and 2%, respectively, ahead of their earnings due after the bell. Amazon ‘s stock price shed 2%. Monster Beverage — JPMorgan downgraded Monster Beverage to neutral from overweight due to “cost pressure,” pushing shares roughly 3% lower. Honeywell — Shares of the industrial company declined 1.5% after it reiterated its full-year guidance. Honeywell posted adjusted earnings per share of $2.25, beating analysts’ estimates of $2.17 per share, per LSEG. Revenue for the quarter also came in better than expected at $9.11 billion, compared to the $9.03 billion analysts were expecting. Merck & Co. — The pharmaceutical giant added 2% on stronger-than-expected results for the first quarter. Merck earned an adjusted $2.07 per share on $15.78 billion in revenue. Analysts polled by LSEG forecast just $1.88 in earnings per share and $15.2 billion in revenue. Deckers Outdoor — Bank of America downgraded the lifestyle footwear maker to neutral from buy, saying it sees a better risk/reward elsewhere in the firm’s coverage. Shares dropped 5%. Southwest Airlines — Shares declined more than 7% after the airlines missed on both top and bottom lines. The company reported adjusted losses of 36 cents per share, wider than the expected loss of 34 cents, per LSEG. Revenue of $6.33 billion also came below the consensus estimate of $6.42 billion. Management warned that Boeing’s airplane delays would pressure its growth into 2025 and lowered growth guidance accordingly. ServiceNow — The digital workflow firm slid 5% after it only narrowly beat analysts’ revenue expectations in the first quarter. ServiceNow posted revenue of $2.6 billion, slightly higher than the $2.59 billion analysts polled by LSEG had anticipated. Adjusted earnings surpassed estimates as well. Chipotle Mexican Grill — Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill rose 5% after the fast-casual burrito chain topped Wall Street’s first-quarter estimates and reported a 7% rise in same-store sales, beating the 5.2% expected by StreetAccount. International Business Machines — IBM’s revenue missed consensus estimates but beat on the bottom line, per LSEG, pulling shares of the tech hardware company nearly 10% lower. IBM also agreed to buy HashiCorp for $6.4 billion in enterprise value, pulling HashiCorp shares 4.7% higher. Bank of America reiterated its buy rating on the stock following earnings. Caterpillar — Shares tumbled 6.5% after revenues of $15.8 billion for the most recent quarter missed analysts’ estimates of $16.04 billion, according to LSEG. The construction equipment maker’s report also revealed soft sales guidance for the second quarter. Nvidia — Shares of the chip giant rose about 3% on Thursday, even as the broader market declined. Nvidia still has not fully recovered from its 10% decline on April 19, as its price remains below where it stood prior to that sell-off. Evercore ISI reiterated Nvidia as outperform, saying investors should use any weakness in the stock to buy the dip. Comcast — The media stock shed more than 6% after quarterly broadband subscriber losses overshadowed a top-and-bottom line beat. Comcast said it lost 65,000 broadband customers during the period. Deutsche Bank — U.S.-listed shares of Deutsche Bank popped nearly 8% and hit a 52-week high. The German lender reported first-quarter revenue and profit that topped expectations as its investment banking unit continued to recover. — CNBC’s Alex Harring, Brian Evans, Samantha Subin, Yun Li, Lisa Kailai Han, Pia Singh and Michelle Fox contributed reporting. Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.
Investors may want to consider adding exposure to the world’s second-largest emerging market.
According to EMQQ Global founder Kevin Carter, India’s technology sector is extremely attractive right now.
“It’s the tip of the spear of growth [in e-commerce] … not just in emerging markets, but on the planet,” Carter told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.
His firm is behind the INQQ The India Internet ETF, which was launched in 2022. The India Internet ETF is up almost 21% so far this year, as of Friday’s close.
‘DoorDash of India’
One of Carter’s top plays is Zomato, which he calls “the DoorDash of India.” Zomato stock is up 128% this year.
“One of the reasons Zomato has done so well this year is because the quick commerce business blanket has exceeded expectations,” Carter said. “It now looks like it’s going to be the biggest business at Zomato.”
Carter noted his bullishness comes from a population that is just starting to go online.
“They’re getting their first-ever computer today basically,” he said, “You’re giving billions of people super computers in their pocket internet access.”
“I think the best case scenario is we’re going to continue to see mortgage rates hover around six and a half to 7%,” said Jordan Jackson, a global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “So unfortunately for those homeowners who are looking for a bit of a reprieve on the mortgage rate side, that may not come to fruition,” Jordan said in an interview with CNBC.
Mortgage rates can be influenced by Fed policy. But the rates are more closely tied to long-term borrowing rates for government debt. The 10-year Treasury note yield has been increasing in recent months as investors consider more expansionary fiscal policies that may come from Washington in 2025. This, combined with signals sent from the market for mortgage-backed securities, determine the rates issued within new mortgages.
Economists at Fannie Mae say the Fed’s management of its mortgage-backed securities portfolio may contribute to today’s mortgage rates.
In the pandemic, the Fed bought huge amounts of assets, including mortgage-backed securities, to adjust demand and supply dynamics within the bond market. Economists also refer to the technique as “quantitative easing.”
Quantitative easing can reduce the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields, which leads to cheaper loan terms for home buyers. It can also provide opportunities for owners looking to refinance their mortgages. The Fed’s use of this technique in the pandemic brought mortgages rates to record lows in 2021.
“They were extra aggressive in 2021 with buying mortgage-backed securities. So, the [quantitative easing] was probably ill-advised at the time.” said Matthew Graham, COO of Mortgage News Daily.
In 2022, the Federal Reserve kicked off plans to reduce the balance of its holdings, primarily by allowing those assets to mature and “roll-off” of its balance sheet. This process is known as “quantitative tightening,” and it may add upward pressure on the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields.
“I think that’s one of the reasons the mortgage rates are still going in the wrong direction from the Federal Reserve’s standpoint,” said George Calhoun, director of the Hanlon Financial Systems Center at Stevens Institute of Technology.
Jason Wilk, the CEO of digital banking service Dave, remembers the absolute low point in his brief career as head of a publicly-traded firm.
It was June 2023, and shares of his company had recently dipped below $5 apiece. Desperate to keep Dave afloat, Wilk found himself at a Los Angeles conference for micro-cap stocks, where he pitched investors on tiny $5,000 stakes in his firm.
“I’m not going to lie, this was probably the hardest time of my life,” Wilk told CNBC. “To go from being a $5 billion company to $50 million in 12 months, it was so freaking hard.”
But in the months that followed, Dave turned profitable and consistently topped Wall Street analyst expectations for revenue and profit. Now, Wilk’s company is the top gainer for 2024 among U.S. financial stocks, with a 934% year-to-date surge through Thursday.
The fintech firm, which makes money by extending small loans to cash-strapped Americans, is emblematic of a larger shift that’s still in its early stages, according to JMP Securities analyst Devin Ryan.
Investors had dumped high-flying fintech companies in 2022 as a wave of unprofitable firms like Dave went public via special purpose acquisition companies. The environment turned suddenly, from rewarding growth at any cost to deep skepticism of how money-losing firms would navigate rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve battled inflation.
Now, with the Fed easing rates, investors have rushed back into financial firms of all sizes, including alternative asset managers like KKR and credit card companies like American Express, the top performers among financial stocks this year with market caps of at least $100 billion and $200 billion, respectively.
Big investment banks including Goldman Sachs, the top gainer among the six largest U.S. banks, have also surged this year on hope for a rebound in Wall Street deals activity.
Dave, a fintech firm taking on big banks like JPMorgan Chase, is a standout stock this year.
But it’s fintech firms like Dave and Robinhood, the commission-free trading app, that are the most promising heading into next year, Ryan said.
Robinhood, whose shares have surged 190% this year, is the top gainer among financial firms with a market cap of at least $10 billion.
“Both Dave and Robinhood went from losing money to being incredibly profitable firms,” Ryan said. “They’ve gotten their house in order by growing their revenues at an accelerating rate while managing expenses at the same time.”
While Ryan views valuations for investment banks and alternative asset manages as approaching “stretched” levels, he said that “fintechs still have a long way to run; they are early in their journey.”
Financials broadly had already begun benefitting from the Fed easing cycle when the election victory of Donald Trump last month intensified interest in the sector. Investors expect Trump will ease regulation and allow for more innovation with government appointments including ex-PayPal executive and Silicon Valley investor David Sacks as AI and crypto czar.
Those expectations have boosted the shares of entrenched players like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, but have had a greater impact on potential disruptors like Dave that could see even more upside from a looser regulatory environment.
Gas & groceries
Dave has built a niche among Americans underserved by traditional banks by offering fee-free checking and savings accounts.
It makes money mostly by extending small loans of around $180 each to help users “pay for gas and groceries” until their next paycheck, according to Wilk; Dave makes roughly $9 per loan on average.
Customers come out ahead by avoiding more expensive forms of credit from other institutions, including $35 overdraft fees charged by banks, he said. Dave, which is not a bank, but partners with one, does not charge late fees or interest on cash advances.
The company also offers a debit card, and interchange fees from transactions made by Dave customers will make up an increasing share of revenue, Wilk said.
While the fintech firm faces far less skepticism now than it did in mid-2023— of the seven analysts who track it, all rate the stock a “buy,” according to Factset — Wilk said the company still has more to prove.
“Our business is so much better now than we went public, but it’s still priced 60% below the IPO price,” he said. “Hopefully we can claw our way back.”