BEIJING — U.S. has raised tariffs on Chinese imports to triple digits. For China’s exporters, it means raising prices for Americans while accelerating plans to diversify operations — and, in some cases, stopping shipments entirely.

U.S. consumers could lose access to certain products in June since some American companies have halted their plans to import textiles from China, said Ryan Zhao, director at Jiangsu Green Willow Textile.

For products that continue to be shipped from China, “it’s impossible to predict” by how much their prices will rise for U.S. consumers, he said Thursday in Chinese, translated by CNBC. “It takes two to four months for products to be shipped from China’s ports and arrive on U.S. supermarket shelves. In the last two months tariffs have climbed from 10% to 125% today.”

The White House has confirmed the U.S. tariff rate on Chinese goods was effectively at 145%. Triple-digit tariffs essentially cut off most trade, a Tax Foundation economist told CNBC’s “The Exchange.”

But U.S.-China trade relationship won’t change overnight, even as American companies that source from China are looking for alternatives.

Tony Post, CEO of U.S.-based running shoe company Topo Athletic, said he is planning to work more with suppliers based in Vietnam in addition to his existing China suppliers.

When the initial two rounds of 10% U.S. tariffs were imposed this year, he said his four China suppliers offered to split the cost with Topo. But now “more than the cost of the product itself has been added in import duties just in the last few months,” he said.

“I’m going to eventually have to raise prices and I don’t know for sure what impact that is going to have on our business,” Post said. Before Trump started with tariffs, Post predicted nearly $100 million in revenue this year — primarily from the U.S.

Hopes for a U.S.-China deal to resolve trade tensions have faded fast as Beijing has hit back in the last week with tit-for-tat duties on American goods and wide-ranging restrictions on U.S. businesses.

With steep tariffs, China’s shipments to the U.S. will likely plunge by 80% over the next two years, Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, said late Thursday.

Goldman Sachs on Thursday cut its China GDP forecast to 4% given the drag from U.S. trade tensions and slower global growth.

While Chinese exports to the U.S. only account for about 3 percentage points of China’s total GDP, there’s still a significant impact on employment, Goldman Sachs analysts said. They estimate around 10 million to 20 million workers in China are involved with U.S.-bound export businesses.

As Beijing tries to address already slowing growth, one of its strategies is to help Chinese exporters sell more at home. China’s Ministry of Commerce said Thursday it recently gathered major business associations to discuss measures to boost sales domestically instead of overseas.

But Chinese consumers have been reluctant to spend, a trend reinforced by yet another drop in consumer price inflation, data released Thursday showed.

“The Chinese domestic market can’t absorb existing supply, much less additional amounts,” said Derek Scissors, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute think tank.

He expects Beijing could follow its playbook of making concessions to the U.S., dump products on other countries, subsidize loss-making firms and let other businesses die. Diverting goods to other countries would likely increase local trade barriers for China, while subsidies would exacerbate debt and deflationary pressures at home, Scissors said.

China has made boosting consumption its priority this year and has expanded subsidies for a consumer trade-in program focused on home appliances. Tsinghua University professor Li Daokui told CNBC’s “The China Connection” Thursday that he expected measures to boost consumption would be announced “within 10 days.”

“We cannot obtain comparable equipment from sources in the U.S.,” Ford said in a U.S. tariff exemption request last month for a manufacturing tool used to make its electric-vehicle battery cells. “A U.S. supplier would not have the specific experience with the handling and heating process.”

Tesla and other major corporations have also filed similar requests for exclusion from U.S. tariffs.

A large chunk of goods can mostly be sourced from China alone. For 36% of U.S. imports from China, more than 70% can only come from suppliers based in the Asian country, Goldman Sachs analysts said this week. They said that indicates it will be hard for U.S. importers to find alternatives, despite new tariffs.

On the other hand, just 10% of Chinese imports from the U.S. rely on American suppliers, the report said.

The world’s second-largest economy has also sought to move into higher-end manufacturing. In addition to apparel and footwear, the U.S. relies on China for computers, machinery, home appliances and electronics, Allianz Research said last week.

China was the second-largest supplier of U.S. goods in 2024, with imports from China rising by 2.8% to $438.95 billion last year, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Mexico climbed to first place starting in 2023, while U.S. imports from Vietnam — which has benefitted from re-routing of Chinese goods — more than doubled in 2024 from 2019, the data showed.

Several large Chinese textile companies have been moving some production to Southeast Asia, Green Willow Textile’s Zhao said.

As for his own company, “this year we are developing customers in Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Europe in order to reduce our reliance on the U.S. market,” Zhao said, noting the company could not bear the cost of the additional tariffs given its already low net profit of 5% last year.

China’s trade with Southeast Asia has grown rapidly since 2019, making the region the country’s largest trading partner, followed by the European Union and then the U.S. in 2024, according to Chinese customs data.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to visit Vietnam on Monday and Tuesday, followed by a trip to Malaysia and Cambodia later in the week, state media said Friday, citing China’s foreign ministry.

“I suspect that we will have a bit of a whack-a-mole situation where there will be new rules coming to crack down on Chinese content in products that ultimately end up in the United States,” Deborah Elms, head of the Hinrich Foundation, said on CNBC’s “The China Connection” Thursday.

Trump on Wednesday paused plans for a sharp hike on tariffs for most countries, including in Southeast Asia, but not for China.

That pause has offered a brief relief to people like Steve Greenspon, CEO of Illinois-based houseware company Honey-Can-Do International, whose company has moved more production from China to Vietnam since Trump’s first term.

“The pause allows us to continue with business as usual outside of China, but we cannot make any long term plans,” said Greenspon. “It’s hard to know how to pivot as we don’t know what will happen in 90 days.”

The economic realities could push the U.S. and China toward a deal, some analysts predict.

Gary Dvorchak, managing director at Blueshirt Group, pointed out Thursday that the latest tariffs have only been announced in the last several days and he expects ratcheting up of duties is likely posturing ahead of a deal — potentially as soon in the next few days.

Despite aggressive rhetoric, he thinks both countries have much to lose if the tariffs are made permanent. To have the U.S. cut off from Chinese goods would plunge China into a deeper depression, he said.

JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings before the opening bell Friday.

Here’s what Wall Street expects, according to LSEG:

• Earnings: $4.61 a share
• Revenue: $44.11 billion

JPMorgan Chase will be the first major U.S. bank to report earnings for the most recent quarter in a time of rising economic uncertainty.

Investors will want to know how consumers, businesses and corporations are faring after President Donald Trump escalated global trade tensions starting April 2.

Jamie Dimon, the longtime JPMorgan leader, said Wednesday that he thought aggressive tariff policies would likely trigger a recession. Trump on Wednesday lowered his proposed tariff rates on most countries, except China, for an initial period of 90 days.

While bank executives are sure to focus on the quarter, which ended before Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” announcement last week, bank stocks have swung wildly on recession fears, making backward-looking discussions less relevant.

The lack of certainty in the business environment for many companies was expected to cast a pall over some investment banking activities, including IPO listings and merger advice.

But it was also expected to provide a good environment for Wall Street trading desks to print money.

Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley are also expected to report Friday, with Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Citigroup coming next week.

This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

With each passing day since President Donald Trump‘s sweeping tariff announcement last week, a growing sense of unease had begun to pervade Wall Street.

As stocks plunged and even the safe haven of U.S. Treasurys were selling off, investors, executives and analysts started to fret that a core assumption from the first Trump presidency may no longer apply.

Amid the market carnage, the world’s most powerful person showed that he had a greater tolerance for inflicting pain on investors than anyone had anticipated. Time after time, he and his deputies denied that the administration would back off from the highest American tariff regime in a century, sometimes inferring that Wall Street would have to suffer so that Main Street could thrive.

“It goes without saying that last week’s price action was shocking to see as the market has begun to rewrite completely its sense for what a second Trump presidency means for the economy,” said R. Scott Siefers, a Piper Sandler analyst, earlier this week.

So it came as a huge relief to investors when, minutes after 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Trump relented by rolling back the highest tariffs on most countries except China, sparking the biggest one-day stock rally for the S&P 500 since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.

Despite a presidency in which Trump has tested the limits of executive power — bulldozing federal agencies and laying off thousands of government employees, for example — the episode shows that the market, and by proxy Wall Street statesmen like JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon who can explain its gyrations, are still guardrails on the administration.

Later Wednesday afternoon, Trump told reporters that he pivoted after seeing how markets were reacting — getting “yippy,” in his words — and took to heart Dimon’s warning in a morning TV appearance that the policy was pushing the U.S. economy into recession.

Dimon’s appearance in a Fox news interview was planned more than a month ago and wasn’t a last-minute decision meant to sway the president, according to a person with knowledge of the JPMorgan CEO’s schedule.

Of particular concern to Trump and his advisors was the fear that his tariff policy could incite a global financial crisis after yields on U.S. government bonds jumped, according to the New York Times, which cited people with knowledge of the president’s thinking.

“The stock market, bond market and capital markets are, to a degree, a governor on the actions that are taken,” said Mike Mayo, the Wells Fargo bank analyst. “You were hearing about parts of the bond market that were under stress, trades that were blowing up. You push so hard, but you don’t want it to break.”

Typically, investors turn to Treasurys in times of uncertainty, but the sell-off indicated that institutional or sovereign players were dumping holdings, leading to higher borrowing costs for the government, businesses and consumers. That could’ve forced the Federal Reserve to intervene, as it has in previous crises, by slashing rates or acting as buyer of last resort for government bonds.

“The bond market was anticipating a real crisis,” Ed Yardeni, the veteran markets analyst, told CNBC’s Scott Wapner on Wednesday.

Yardeni said it was the “bond vigilantes” that got Trump’s attention; the term refers to the idea that investors can act as a type of enforcer on government behavior viewed as making it less likely they’ll get repaid.

Amid the market churn, Wall Street executives had reportedly worried that they didn’t have the influence they did under the first Trump administration, when ex-Goldman partners including Steven Mnuchin and Gary Cohn could be relied upon.

But this last week also showed investors that, in his mission to remake the global order of the past century, Trump is willing to take his adversarial approach with trading partners and the larger economy to the knife’s edge, which only invites more volatility.