China’s surging stock market after the government outlined plans to boost the economy has suddenly tipped hedge funds and strategists to what would have recently been seen as one of the most contrarian trades around. The CSI 300, an index of stocks traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, rallied more than 15% last week, its best week since 2008 . Earlier this year, the CSI 300 fell to six-year-lows. “There is no question that shares of quality businesses will bottom well ahead of final index bottoms,” a team led by JPMorgan chief China equity strategist Wendy Liu wrote in a report Friday. Until the government’s measures pan out, investment strategists are recommending a handful of oversold stocks in China. JPMorgan highlighted three stock picks for near-term upside: Shanghai-listed beer company Tsingtao , U.S.-listed retailer Miniso and machinery company Zhejiang Dingli, also traded in Shanghai. “Our focus here and over the next several quarters will be on finding quality businesses that trade at undemanding valuation[s],” the report said. Adding exposure That newfound enthusiasm was contagious. “We believe it is a good time to add back China exposure,” Rupal Agarwal, director, Asia quantitative strategist at Bernstein, said in a note Friday. “We would wait to see clear signs of inflection on property/consumer sentiment and earnings growth to become more positive over the medium-term,” she said. “For now, we believe tactically, the rally has legs.” Two stocks Bernstein analysts found that have triple-digit six-month earnings momentum are U.S.-listed after-school operator Tal Education and Shanghai-listed Seres , which manufactures cars for the Aito EV brand developed with Huawei. The stocks appeared on a screen searching for beneficiaries of domestic demand that was confined to companies trading at least 20% below peak levels reached in May and with positive 12-month earnings forecasts. U.S. hedge fund billionaire David Tepper said Thursday on CNBC’s ” Squawk Box ” that he bought more Chinese stocks after the change in China policy. Asked about the potential impact of increased U.S. tariffs, which former President Donald Trump has primised to extend if elected in November, Tepper said he didn’t care. Instead, Tepper stressed how Beijing’s latest policy focuses on “internal stimulus,” and said Chinese stocks are cheaper than those in the U.S. “You’re sitting there with single multiple P/Es with double-digit growth rate s for the big stocks that trade over here,” Tepper said. That’s versus, “you know, the 20-plus on the S & P.” Shifting sentiment Sentiment toward Chinese stocks shifted after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng on Tuesday announced rate cuts at a rare press conference held alongside the head of securities regulation and other officials. Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday then led a high-level meeting that affirmed those policy moves. The leaders also called for a halt in the real estate slump and for strengthening fiscal and monetary policy. In reaction to the brightened prospects, short-term traders have bought Chinese stocks for eight straight days, Scott Rubner, managing director for global markets and tactical specialist at Goldman Sachs, said in a trading note Thursday. “Re-Emerging Markets have quickly become a favored post-U.S. election trade for November and December,” Rubner said, noting, “I have done more Zoom calls on China in the past 48 hours than all of 2024.” Global mutual funds in aggregate allocated 5.1% of their portfolios to Chinese stocks as of the end of August, near the lowest levels of the past decade, while hedge funds were around a five-year low of less than 7%, according to data collected by Goldman. That hedge fund allocation rose to 7.3% on Tuesday, which saw the largest single day purchases by hedge funds since March 2021, Rubner said. The renewed interest in Chinese stocks comes after institutions had cut their exposure there due to sluggish growth prospects, mounting debt woes and an alarming slump in the property market . Some international investors have also steered clear over concerns about U.S.-China tensions. To be sure, few are betting on an unimpeded, all-out rally from here, especially since China hasn’t formalized the details of fiscal policy. Chinese companies trade primarily in the U.S., Hong Kong and the mainland. Retail investors account for the majority of trading activity in mainland Chinese stocks, also known as A shares. “Trading sentiment has always been affected by policies and has fluctuated greatly,” Li Dongfang, a Beijing-based finance blogger, said in Chinese, translated by CNBC. He bought some A shares and Hong Kong-traded exchange traded funds, and is optimistic on liquor, new energy vehicle and photovoltaic stocks. “The A share market has always had a market bottom after the policy” starts to turn supportive, Li said, noting he expects it will take time for the market to consolidate after the latest gains followed earlier losses. The PBOC’s policy announcements support further flows into the stock market, allowing ETFs to be used as collateral for institutional loans, and allowing major shareholders to borrow from banks for stock repurchases, Li said. “Ongoing short squeeze likely further fueled the strong market performance [Friday], with property, consumer staples, and consumer discretionary outperforming in the HK market, and property, consumer staples, and financials outperforming in the A-share market,” JPMorgan said. Mainland Chinese stock exchanges are scheduled to close from Oct. 1 to Oct. 7 for a holiday, which this year commemorates the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Leading analyst Craig Moffett suggests any plans to move U.S. iPhone assembly to India is unrealistic.
Moffett, ranked as a top analyst multiple times by Institutional Investor, sent a memo to clients on Friday after the Financial Times reported Apple was aiming to shift production toward India from China by the end of next year.
He’s questioning how a move could bring down costs tied to tariffs because the iPhone components would still be made in China.
“You have a tremendous menu of problems created by tariffs, and moving to India doesn’t solve all the problems. Now granted, it helps to some degree,” the MoffettNathanson partner and senior managing director told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Friday. “I would question how that’s going to work.”
Moffett contends it’s not so easy to diversify to India — telling clients Apple’s supply chain would still be anchored in China and would likely face resistance.
“The bottom line is a global trade war is a two-front battle, impacting costs and sales. Moving assembly to India might (and we emphasize might) help with the former. The latter may ultimately be the bigger issue,” he wrote to clients.
Moffett cut his Apple price target on Monday to $141 from $184 a share. It implies a 33% drop from Friday’s close. The price target is also the Street low, according to FactSet.
“I don’t think of myself as the biggest Apple bear,” he said. “I think quite highly of Apple. My concern about Apple has been the valuation more than the company.”
Moffett has had a “sell” rating on Apple since Jan. 7. Since then, the company’s shares are down about 14%.
“None of this is because Apple is a bad company. They still have a great balance sheet [and] a great consumer franchise,” he said. “It’s just the reality of there are no good answers when you are a product company, and your products are going to be significantly tariffed, and you’re heading into a market that is likely to have at least some deceleration in consumer demand because of the macro economy.”
Moffett notes Apple also isn’t getting help from its carriers to cushion the blow of tariffs.
“You also have the demand destruction that’s created by potentially higher prices. Remember, you had AT&T, Verizon and T. Mobile all this week come out and say we’re not going to underwrite the additional cost of tariff [on] handsets,” he added. “The consumer is going to have to pay for that. So, you’re going to have some demand destruction that’s going to show up in even longer holding periods and slower upgrade rates — all of which probably trims estimates next year’s consensus.”
According to Moffett, the backlash against Apple in China over U.S. tariffs will also hurt iPhone sales.
“It’s a very real problem,” Moffett said. “Volumes are really going to the Huaweis and the Vivos and the local competitors in China rather than to Apple.”
Apple stock is coming off a winning week — up more than 6%. It comes ahead of the iPhone maker’s quarterly earnings report due next Thursday after the market close.
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In a year that hasn’t been kind to many big-name stocks, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is standing near the top. Berkshire shares have posted a 17% return year-to-date, while the S&P 500 index is down 6%.
That performance places Berkshire among the top 10% of the U.S. market’s large-cap leaders, and the run has been getting Buffett more attention ahead of next weekend’s annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in Omaha, Nebraska. It’s also good timing for the recently launched VistaShares Target 15 Berkshire Select Income ETF(OMAH), which holds the top 20 most heavily weighted stocks in Berkshire Hathaway, as well as shares of Berkshire Hathaway.
“It’s a really well-balanced portfolio chosen by the most successful investor the world has ever seen,” Adam Patti, CEO of VistaShares, said in an appearance this week on CNBC’s “ETF Edge.”
Berkshire’s outperformance of the S&P 500 isn’t limited to 2025. Buffett’s stock has tripled the performance of the market over the past year, and its 185% return over the past five years is more than double the performance of the S&P 500.
Berkshire Hathaway is one of 2025’s top performing stocks.
In addition to this long-term track record of success in the market, Berkshire Hathaway is getting a lot of attention right now for the record amount of cash Buffett is holding as he trimmed stakes in big stocks including Apple, which has proven to be a great strategy. The S&P 500 has experienced extreme short-term volatility since President Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20. Even after a recent recovery, the S&P is still down 8% since the start of Trump’s second term.
“The market has been momentum driven for many years, the switch has flipped and we’re looking at quality in terms of exposure, and Berkshire Hathaway has performed incredibly well this year, handily outperforming the S&P 500,” said Patti.
Berkshire Hathaway famously doesn’t pay a dividend, with Buffett holding firm over many decades in the belief that he can re-invest cash to create more value for shareholders. In a letter to shareholders in February, Buffett wrote that Berkshire shareholders “can rest assured that we will forever deploy a substantial majority of their money in equities — mostly American equities.”
The lack of a dividend payment has been an issue over the years for some shareholders at Berkshire who do want income from the market, according to Patti, who added that his firm conducted research among investors in designing the ETF. “Who doesn’t want to invest like Buffett, but with income?” he said.
So, in addition to being tied to the performance of Berkshire and the stock picks of Buffett, the VistaShares Target 15 Berkshire Select Income ETF is designed to produce income of 15% annually through a strategy of selling call options and distributing monthly payments of 1.25% to shareholders. This income strategy has become more popular in the ETF space, with more asset managers launching funds to capture income opportunities and more investors adopting the approach amid market volatility.
People shop for produce at a Walmart in Rosemead, California, on April 11, 2025.
Frederic J. Brown | Afp | Getty Images
A growing number of Americans are using buy now, pay later loans to buy groceries, and more people are paying those bills late, according to new Lending Tree data released Friday.
The figures are the latest indicator that some consumers are cracking under the pressure of an uncertain economy and are having trouble affording essentials such as groceries as they contend with persistent inflation, high interest rates and concerns around tariffs.
In a survey conducted April 2-3 of 2,000 U.S. consumers ages 18 to 79, around half reported having used buy now, pay later services. Of those consumers, 25% of respondents said they were using BNPL loans to buy groceries, up from 14% in 2024 and 21% in 2023, the firm said.
Meanwhile, 41% of respondents said they made a late payment on a BNPL loan in the past year, up from 34% in the year prior, the survey found.
Lending Tree’s chief consumer finance analyst, Matt Schulz, said that of those respondents who said they paid a BNPL bill late, most said it was by no more than a week or so.
“A lot of people are struggling and looking for ways to extend their budget,” Schulz said. “Inflation is still a problem. Interest rates are still really high. There’s a lot of uncertainty around tariffs and other economic issues, and it’s all going to add up to a lot of people looking for ways to extend their budget however they can.”
“For an awful lot of people, that’s going to mean leaning on buy now, pay later loans, for better or for worse,” he said.
He stopped short of calling the results a recession indicator but said conditions are expected to decline further before they get better.
“I do think it’s going to get worse, at least in the short term,” said Schulz. “I don’t know that there’s a whole lot of reason to expect these numbers to get better in the near term.”
The loans, which allow consumers to split up purchases into several smaller payments, are a popular alternative to credit cards because they often don’t charge interest. But consumers can see high fees if they pay late, and they can run into problems if they stack up multiple loans. In Lending Tree’s survey, 60% of BNPL users said they’ve had multiple loans at once, with nearly a fourth saying they have held three or more at once.
“It’s just really important for people to be cautious when they use these things, because even though they can be a really good interest-free tool to help you kind of make it from one paycheck to the next, there’s also a lot of risk in mismanaging it,” said Schulz. “So people should tread lightly.”
Lending Tree’s findings come after Billboard revealed that about 60% of general admission Coachella attendees funded their concert tickets with buy now, pay later loans, sparking a debate on the state of the economy and how consumers are using debt to keep up their lifestyles. A recent announcement from DoorDash that it would begin accepting BNPL financing from Klarna for food deliveries led to widespread mockery and jokes that Americans were struggling so much that they were now being forced to finance cheeseburgers and burritos.
Over the last few years, consumers have held up relatively well, even in the face of persistent inflation and high interest rates, because the job market was strong and wage growth had kept up with inflation — at least for some workers.
Earlier this year, however, large companies including Walmart and Delta Airlines began warning that the dynamic had begun to shift and they were seeing cracks in demand, which was leading to worse-than-expected sales forecasts.