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‘Supercore’ inflation measure shows Fed may have a real problem

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US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a “Fed Listens” event in Washington, DC, on October 4, 2019.

Eric Baradat | AFP | Getty Images

A hotter-than-expected consumer price index reading rattled markets Wednesday, but markets are buzzing about an even more specific prices gauge contained within the data — the so-called supercore inflation reading.

Along with the overall inflation measure, economists also look at the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to find the true trend. The supercore gauge, which also excludes shelter and rent costs from its services reading, takes it even a step further. Fed officials say it is useful in the current climate as they see elevated housing inflation as a temporary problem and not as good a gauge of underlying prices.

Supercore accelerated to a 4.8% pace year over year in March, the highest in 11 months.

Tom Fitzpatrick, managing director of global market insights at R.J. O’Brien & Associates, said if you take the readings of the last three months and annualize them, you’re looking at a supercore inflation rate of more than 8%, far from the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.

“As we sit here today, I think they’re probably pulling their hair out,” Fitzpatrick said.

An ongoing problem

CPI increased 3.5% year over year last month, above the Dow Jones estimate that called for 3.4%. The data pressured equities and sent Treasury yields higher on Wednesday, and pushed futures market traders to extend out expectations for the central bank’s first rate cut to September from June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

“At the end of the day, they don’t really care as long as they get to 2%, but the reality is you’re not going to get to a sustained 2% if you don’t get a key cooling in services prices, [and] at this point we’re not seeing it,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Santander U.S.

Wall Street has been keenly aware of the trend coming from supercore inflation from the beginning of the year. A move higher in the metric from January’s CPI print was enough to hinder the market’s “perception the Fed was winning the battle with inflation [and] this will remain an open question for months to come,” according to BMO Capital Markets head of U.S. rates strategy Ian Lyngen.

Another problem for the Fed, Fitzpatrick says, lies in the differing macroeconomic backdrop of demand-driven inflation and robust stimulus payments that equipped consumers to beef up discretionary spending in 2021 and 2022 while also stoking record inflation levels.

Today, he added, the picture is more complicated because some of the most stubborn components of services inflation are household necessities like car and housing insurance as well as property taxes.

“They are so scared by what happened in 2021 and 2022 that we’re not starting from the same point as we have on other occasions,” Fitzpatrick added. “The problem is, if you look at all of this [together] these are not discretionary spending items, [and] it puts them between a rock and a hard place.”

Sticky inflation problem

Further complicating the backdrop is a dwindling consumer savings rate and higher borrowing costs which make the central bank more likely to keep monetary policy restrictive “until something breaks,” Fitzpatrick said.

The Fed will have a hard time bringing down inflation with more rate hikes because the current drivers are stickier and not as sensitive to tighter monetary policy, he cautioned. Fitzpatrick said the recent upward moves in inflation are more closely analogous to tax increases.

While Stanley opines that the Fed is still far removed from hiking interest rates further, doing so will remain a possibility so long as inflation remains elevated above the 2% target.

“I think by and large inflation will come down and they’ll cut rates later than we thought,” Stanley said. “The question becomes are we looking at something that’s become entrenched here? At some point, I imagine the possibility of rate hikes comes back into focus.”

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Wall Street’s fear gauge — the VIX — saw second-biggest spike ever on Wednesday

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A television station broadcasts the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2024.

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Wall Street’s fear gauge — the VIX — spiked by the second biggest percentage in its history on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve jolted the stock market by saying it would dial back its rate-cutting campaign.

The CBOE Volatility Index surged 74% to close at 27.62, up from around 15 earlier in the day. That surge is the second-greatest in history, behind a 115% leap to above the 37 handle back in February 2018 when there was a blow-up in funds tracking the volatility index.

Wednesday’s move comes after the central bank said it will likely lower interest rates just twice next year, down from the four cuts it projected back in September, alarming investors who wanted low rates to keep fueling the bull market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled by 1,100 points to its 10th straight loss.

Typically, a value greater than 20 in the VIX indicates a higher level of fear in the market. However, for most of this year, the VIX had been suppressed below that level, worrying investors who believed the market had gotten overly complacent.

The VIX is calculated based on the prices of put and call options on the S&P 500. A spike could indicate a rush by investors to purchase put options for protection in a decline.

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CBOE Volatility Index, 5 days

Still, there have been one other significant surge in the VIX in 2024. The third-biggest surge in the VIX in history occurred in Aug. 5, 2024, when fears of a U.S. recession, and a major unwind in the yen carry trade, spurred a roughly 65% increase in the VIX to close above 38. On an intraday basis, the VIX briefly topped 65 that day.

On Thursday, the VIX was last floating just above the 20 handle, down more than 25% from the prior day.

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Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: MU, LW, DRI

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China self-driving truck company TuSimple pivots to genAI for games

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Workers setting up the TuSimple booth for CES 2022 at the Las Vegas Convention Center on Jan. 3, 2022.

Alex Wong | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Embattled Chinese autonomous trucking company TuSimple has rebranded to CreateAI, focusing on video games and animation, the company announced Thursday.

The news comes as GM folded its Cruise robotaxi business this month, and the once-hot sector of self-driving startups has started to weed out stragglers. TuSimple, which straddled the U.S. and China markets, had its own challenges: concerns over vehicle safety, a $189 million settlement of a securities fraud lawsuit and delisting from the Nasdaq in February.

Now, just over two years after CEO Cheng Lu rejoined the company in the role after being pushed out, he expects the business can break even in 2026.

That’s thanks to a video game based on the hit martial arts novels by Jin Yong that’s slated to release an initial version that year, Cheng said. He anticipates “several hundred million” in revenue in 2027 when the full version is launched.

Before the delisting, TuSimple said it lost $500,000 in the first three quarters of 2023, and spent $164.4 million on research and development during that time.

Company co-founder Mo Chen has a “long history” with the Jin Yong family and started work in 2021 to develop an animated feature based on the stories, Cheng said.

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The company claims its artificial intelligence capabilities in developing autonomous driving software give it a base from which to develop generative AI. That’s the next-level tech powering OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which generates human-like responses to user prompts.

Along with the CreateAI rebrand, the company debuted its first major AI model called Ruyi, an open-source model for visual work, available via the Hugging Face platform.

“It’s clear our shareholders see the value in this transformation and want to move forward in this direction,” Cheng said. “Our management team and Board of Directors have received overwhelming support from shareholders at the annual meeting.”

He said the company plans to increase headcount to around 500 next year, up from 300.

Cutting production costs by 70%

While still under the name TuSimple, the company in August announced a partnership with Shanghai Three Body Animation to develop the first animated feature film and video game based on the science fiction novel series “The Three-Body Problem.”

The company said at the time that it was launching a new business segment to develop generative AI applications for video games and animation.

CreateAI expects to lower the cost of top-tier, so-called triple A game production by 70% in the next five to six years, Cheng said. He declined to share whether the company was in talks with gaming giant Tencent.

When asked about the impact of U.S. restrictions, Cheng claimed there were no issues and said the company used a mix of China and non-China cloud computing providers.

The U.S. under the Biden administration has ramped up limits on Chinese businesses’ access to advanced semiconductors used to power generative AI.

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