Finance

‘Supercore’ inflation measure shows Fed may have a real problem

Published

1 year ago

April 11, 2024

Business Finance News

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a “Fed Listens” event in Washington, DC, on October 4, 2019.

Eric Baradat | AFP | Getty Images

A hotter-than-expected consumer price index reading rattled markets Wednesday, but markets are buzzing about an even more specific prices gauge contained within the data — the so-called supercore inflation reading.

Along with the overall inflation measure, economists also look at the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to find the true trend. The supercore gauge, which also excludes shelter and rent costs from its services reading, takes it even a step further. Fed officials say it is useful in the current climate as they see elevated housing inflation as a temporary problem and not as good a gauge of underlying prices.

Supercore accelerated to a 4.8% pace year over year in March, the highest in 11 months.

Tom Fitzpatrick, managing director of global market insights at R.J. O’Brien & Associates, said if you take the readings of the last three months and annualize them, you’re looking at a supercore inflation rate of more than 8%, far from the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.

“As we sit here today, I think they’re probably pulling their hair out,” Fitzpatrick said.

An ongoing problem

CPI increased 3.5% year over year last month, above the Dow Jones estimate that called for 3.4%. The data pressured equities and sent Treasury yields higher on Wednesday, and pushed futures market traders to extend out expectations for the central bank’s first rate cut to September from June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

“At the end of the day, they don’t really care as long as they get to 2%, but the reality is you’re not going to get to a sustained 2% if you don’t get a key cooling in services prices, [and] at this point we’re not seeing it,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Santander U.S.

Wall Street has been keenly aware of the trend coming from supercore inflation from the beginning of the year. A move higher in the metric from January’s CPI print was enough to hinder the market’s “perception the Fed was winning the battle with inflation [and] this will remain an open question for months to come,” according to BMO Capital Markets head of U.S. rates strategy Ian Lyngen.

Another problem for the Fed, Fitzpatrick says, lies in the differing macroeconomic backdrop of demand-driven inflation and robust stimulus payments that equipped consumers to beef up discretionary spending in 2021 and 2022 while also stoking record inflation levels.

Today, he added, the picture is more complicated because some of the most stubborn components of services inflation are household necessities like car and housing insurance as well as property taxes.

“They are so scared by what happened in 2021 and 2022 that we’re not starting from the same point as we have on other occasions,” Fitzpatrick added. “The problem is, if you look at all of this [together] these are not discretionary spending items, [and] it puts them between a rock and a hard place.”

Sticky inflation problem

Further complicating the backdrop is a dwindling consumer savings rate and higher borrowing costs which make the central bank more likely to keep monetary policy restrictive “until something breaks,” Fitzpatrick said.

The Fed will have a hard time bringing down inflation with more rate hikes because the current drivers are stickier and not as sensitive to tighter monetary policy, he cautioned. Fitzpatrick said the recent upward moves in inflation are more closely analogous to tax increases.

While Stanley opines that the Fed is still far removed from hiking interest rates further, doing so will remain a possibility so long as inflation remains elevated above the 2% target.

“I think by and large inflation will come down and they’ll cut rates later than we thought,” Stanley said. “The question becomes are we looking at something that’s become entrenched here? At some point, I imagine the possibility of rate hikes comes back into focus.”

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Finance

Walmart can absorb tariffs, fmr. U.S. CEO Simon questions price hikes

Published

8 hours ago

May 15, 2025

Business Finance News

Walmart is best poised to weather the tariffs, says former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon

Walmart‘s business is strong enough to withstand tariff headwinds without increasing its prices, according to the discount retailer’s former U.S. CEO.

Bill Simon, who ran Walmart U.S. from 2010 to 2014, suggests the company may be overstating challenges tied to tariffs.

“If you look down deep and dig into the details of their earnings release today, you know this quarter they grew their gross profit margin in the U.S. business 25 basis points. So, they’re expanding their margin. They also reported their general merchandise categories were flattish because they had mid-single digit price deflation,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday, the day Walmart reported fiscal first-quarter results. “That sort of gives them room in my view to manage any tariff impact that they would have.”

Simon is optimistic consumers can largely handle price increases — citing a steady jobs market and cheaper fuel prices this year. But he notes worrisome commentary from corporate executives could be chipping away at consumer confidence.

“All the doom and gloom we hear about price increases and tariffs like we heard from my friends at Walmart today, I think it scares them some,” said Simon, who’s now on the Darden Restaurants board and is the chairman at Hanesbrands.

Walmart shares fell 0.5% on Thursday, but the stock closed above session lows. Shares are off almost 9% from the all-time high of $105.30 hit on Feb. 14.

On Feb. 20, Simon joined “Fast Money” as Walmart shares were wrapping up their worst week since May 2022 on tariff jitters. He suggested the stock was a steal for investors even though Walmart warned profits were slowing.

As of Thursday’s close, Walmart shares are positive for the year, up more than 6% in 2025. The stock has climbed more than 7% since President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2.

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Finance

Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: AMAT, TTWO, CAVA

Published

11 hours ago

May 15, 2025

Business Finance News

The Applied Materials logo on Dec. 17, 2024.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Check out the companies making headlines in after-hours trading:

Applied Materials — Shares fell nearly 5% in extended trading. The maker of semiconductor manufacturing equipment reported $7.10 billion in revenue in its fiscal second quarter, which was slightly lower than analysts’ expectations of $7.13 billion, according to LSEG. Semiconductor revenue of $5.26 billion for the quarter fell short of estimates of $5.31 billion.

Take-Two Interactive Software — The video game company saw a 2% decline in shares after issuing weaker-than-expected guidance for full-year bookings. The company said it expects between $5.9 billion and $6 billion, while StreetAccount consensus estimates sought $7.82 billion. For the fiscal first quarter, Take-Two projected bookings between $1.25 billion and $1.30 billion, versus estimates of $1.28 billion.

Cava Group — Shares of the Mediterranean restaurant chain fell 4%. Cava’s full-year guidance for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, came in at $152 million to $159 million, short of the FactSet consensus call for $159.7 million. Revenue in the first quarter surpassed estimates, coming in at $332 million, versus the $327 million consensus estimate, per LSEG.

Doximity — The networking platform for health-care professionals saw its stock tank 25% on weak guidance. Doximity expects adjusted EBITDA to range between $71 million and $72 million, while StreetAccount consensus estimates sought $74 million. The company’s full-year outlook also missed expectations.