A customer shops at a supermarket on August 14, 2024 in Arlington, Virginia.
Sha Hanting | China News Service | Getty Images
Federal Reserve officials will get the latest look at their favorite inflation indicator Friday, a data snapshot that could influence the September rate decision even as policymakers appear to have their focus elsewhere these days.
The Commerce Department at 8:30 a.m. ET will release its personal consumption expenditures price index, a sprawling measure of what consumers are paying for a variety of goods and services as well as their spending preferences.
While the Fed uses a whole dashboard of indicators to measure inflation, the PCE index is its go-to data point and its sole forecasting tool when members release their quarterly projections. Policymakers especially hone in on the core PCE measure, which excludes food and energy, when making interest rate decisions.
The Fed prefers the PCE over the Labor Department’s consumer price index as the former takes into account changes in consumer behavior such as substituting purchases, and is broader.
For the July reading, the Dow Jones consensus sees little change in recent trends — 0.2% monthly increases in both headline and core prices, and respective gains of 2.5% and 2.7% annually. At the core level, the 12-month forecast actually indicates a slight bump up from June, while the all-items measure is the same.
Should the readings roughly match the forecast, they should do little to dissuade Fed officials from following through with a much-anticipated interest rate cut at their Sept. 17-18 policy meeting.
“To me, it’s going to be just one more piece of evidence to confirm that the Fed is seeing sustainable inflation readings at a sustainable pace,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist at U.S. Bank. Any slight upticks are “really just base-effect kinds of things that aren’t going to change the Fed’s view.”
Fed officials aren’t declaring victory over inflation yet, though recent statements indicate a more positive outlook. The central bank targets inflation at 2% annually.
While the respective PCE readings haven’t been below that level since February 2022, Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week said that “my confidence has grown” that inflation is heading back to target. But Powell also expressed some reservations about the slowing labor market, and it appears the Fed now is tilting away from being an inflation fighter and focusing more on supporting the jobs picture.
“The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased,” Powell said.
That view has been taken as an indication that policymakers will be focused more on preventing a labor market reversal and a broader slowdown in the economy. In turn, that could mean less of a focus on numbers such as Friday’s PCE reading and more on the Sept. 6 report on August nonfarm payrolls.
“The focus on the Fed is going to be on the jobs front,” Bovino said. “They seem to be more attuned to whether the jobs side is getting a little weaker. I think that’s the focus of their monetary policy.”
In addition to the inflation readings Friday, there will also be a look at personal income in July, which is expected to increase by 0.2%, and consumer spending, which is projected to rise 0.5%.
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), comments on the central bank’s latest interest rate decision to journalists.
Photo by Andreas Arnold/picture alliance via Getty Images
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday said she hoped that the prospect of U.S. President Donald Trump firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was not on the table.
Asked by CNBC’s Sara Eisen if that scenario was a current material risk to markets, Lagarde said: “I certainly hope not … I hope that it is not a risk.”
Speaking on the sidelines of the IMF World Bank Spring Meetings, Lagarde told CNBC that she would not comment on the market implications of an event she hoped was “not on the table.”
U.S. President Donald Trump has been ramping up pressure on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to reduce interest rates, warning the U.S. economy could slow down otherwise.
Powell had in turn last week suggested that Trump’s trade war could weigh on growth and fuel inflation. He did not indicate his expectations for the interest rate path ahead, but noted that “for the time being, we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”
Trump appointed Powell during his first presidential mandate, but is now looking into whether the Fed chief can legally be sacked before him term expires.
The ECB and the Fed have been diverging on monetary policy.
The euro area’s central bank has consistently cut rates as inflation closes in on its 2% target and economic growth in the bloc appears lackluster. The Fed has meanwhile been keeping rates steady this year, after enacting three consecutive cuts between September and December last year.
The ECB last week cut interest rates by a further 25 basis points, making its third reduction of 2025 and its seventh trim since it began easing monetary policy last summer. In its monetary policy statement, the central bank warned of a weakened growth outlook linked to the global trade uncertainty stoked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.
Tariffs are posing major headwinds for the U.S. and global economies, leading the International Monetary Fund to slash its 2025 growth forecast.
President Donald Trump’s April 2 rollout of “reciprocal” tariffs has not only shaken stocks – the S&P 500 is down 9% since the levies were launched – but they also have set off countermeasures from other trading partners.
“This on its own is a major negative shock to growth,” the IMF said in the executive summary of its April 2025 World Economic Outlook.
This new outlook includes a “reference forecast” for global economic growth and inflation, based on data available as of April 4 — including the “reciprocal” tariffs but excluding subsequent developments like the 90-day pause on higher rates and the exemption on smartphones — and updates the earlier outlook the IMF shared in January.
In its new projections, the IMF now calls for a U.S. growth outlook of 1.8% in 2025, down 0.9 percentage point from its January forecast.
While it is not yet calling for a recession in the U.S., chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters Tuesday that the IMF now views recession odds at 40%, up from 25% in October.
The IMF also cut back its global growth forecast to 2.8% in 2025, down 0.5 percentage point from its previous estimate.
“The April 2 Rose Garden announcement forced us to jettison our projections — nearly finalized at that point — and compress a production cycle that usually takes more than two months into less than 10 days,” chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas wrote in the April report.
“The common denominator … is that tariffs are a negative supply shock for the economy imposing them,” he said.
Higher inflation forecasts for advanced economies
The IMF also revised its expectations for headline inflation for advanced economies, which include the U.S., the United Kingdom and Canada, to 2.5% for 2025, reflecting an increase of 0.4 percentage point from January’s projection.
The U.S. inflation outlook was also revised higher by 1 percentage point from January, where it was estimated above the 2% range.
“For the United States, this reflects stubborn price dynamics in the services sector as well as a recent uptick in the growth of the price of core goods (excluding food and energy) and the supply shock from recent tariffs,” the IMF noted in its April report.
The increase in inflation for major economies was offset by downward revisions across certain emerging markets and developing economies.
The extent to which the levies pressure central banks’ efforts to lower inflation is contingent “on whether the tariffs are perceived to be temporary or permanent,” according to the IMF’s report.
Previous bouts of market volatility have led to the U.S. dollar strengthening relative to other countries, creating upward inflationary pressure in other countries. However, the dollar has reversed this trend amid the recent market sell-off.
“The effect of tariffs on exchange rates is not straightforward,” per Gourinchas. “In the medium term, the dollar may depreciate in real terms if tariffs translate into lower productivity in the US tradables sector, relative to its trading partners.”
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Austan Goolsbee, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, speaks to the Economic Club of New York in New York City, U.S., April 10, 2025.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Business owners and CEOs are already stocking up on inventory, and some American shoppers are panic buying big-ticket items in anticipation of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The sudden buying binge could cause an “artificially high” level of economic activity, said Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee.
“That kind of preemptive purchasing is probably even more pronounced on the business side,” Goolsbee told CBS’ “Face The Nation” on Sunday, adding: “We heard a lot about preemptive building-up of inventories that could last 60 days, 90 days, if there [was] going to be more uncertainty.”
Businesses stockpiling inventory and consumers accelerating their purchasing decisions — buying an Apple iPhone now, say, rather than waiting until the fall — may inflate U.S. economic activity in April and lead to a slowdown in the coming months, Goolsbee suggested.
“Activity might look artificially high in the initial, and then by the summer, might fall off — because people have bought it all,” he said.
Sectors affected by Trump’s tariffs, particularly the auto industry, are most likely to heavily stock up on inventory now before import levies on goods from other countries potentially rise further, said Goolsbee. Many car parts, electronic components and other big-ticket consumer items are manufactured in China, for example, which currently faces a 145% total tariff rate on goods imported to the United States.
“We don’t know, 90 days from now, when they’ve revisited the tariffs, we don’t know how big they’re going to be,” Goolsbee said.
Some U.S. business owners who buy goods manufactured in China say they already can’t afford to place rush orders on inventory. Matt Rollens, owner and CEO of Granite Bay, California-based novelty drinkware company Dragon Glassware, says he’s temporarily holding his products in China because paying the 145% levy would force him to raise consumer prices by at least 50%, likely drying up customer demand.
Rollens has enough inventory in the U.S. to last roughly until June, and hopes the tariffs will be rolled back by then, he told CNBC Make It on April 11.
Short-term uncertainty and financial pain aside, the Fed’s Goolsbee expressed optimism about the country’s longer-term economic outlook.
“If we can get through this, it’s important to remember: The hard data coming into April was pretty good. The unemployment rate [was] around steady full employment, inflation [was] coming down,” he said. “It’s just a desire of people expressing they don’t want to back to ’21 and ’22, at a time when inflation was really raging out of control.”