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The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator is out Friday. What to expect

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5 months ago

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A customer shops at a supermarket on August 14, 2024 in Arlington, Virginia. 

Sha Hanting | China News Service | Getty Images

Federal Reserve officials will get the latest look at their favorite inflation indicator Friday, a data snapshot that could influence the September rate decision even as policymakers appear to have their focus elsewhere these days.

The Commerce Department at 8:30 a.m. ET will release its personal consumption expenditures price index, a sprawling measure of what consumers are paying for a variety of goods and services as well as their spending preferences.

While the Fed uses a whole dashboard of indicators to measure inflation, the PCE index is its go-to data point and its sole forecasting tool when members release their quarterly projections. Policymakers especially hone in on the core PCE measure, which excludes food and energy, when making interest rate decisions.

The Fed prefers the PCE over the Labor Department’s consumer price index as the former takes into account changes in consumer behavior such as substituting purchases, and is broader.

For the July reading, the Dow Jones consensus sees little change in recent trends — 0.2% monthly increases in both headline and core prices, and respective gains of 2.5% and 2.7% annually. At the core level, the 12-month forecast actually indicates a slight bump up from June, while the all-items measure is the same.

Should the readings roughly match the forecast, they should do little to dissuade Fed officials from following through with a much-anticipated interest rate cut at their Sept. 17-18 policy meeting.

“To me, it’s going to be just one more piece of evidence to confirm that the Fed is seeing sustainable inflation readings at a sustainable pace,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist at U.S. Bank. Any slight upticks are “really just base-effect kinds of things that aren’t going to change the Fed’s view.”

Fed officials aren’t declaring victory over inflation yet, though recent statements indicate a more positive outlook. The central bank targets inflation at 2% annually.

All eyes are on the labor market now, says Empower Investments' Marta Norton

While the respective PCE readings haven’t been below that level since February 2022, Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week said that “my confidence has grown” that inflation is heading back to target. But Powell also expressed some reservations about the slowing labor market, and it appears the Fed now is tilting away from being an inflation fighter and focusing more on supporting the jobs picture.

“The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased,” Powell said.

That view has been taken as an indication that policymakers will be focused more on preventing a labor market reversal and a broader slowdown in the economy. In turn, that could mean less of a focus on numbers such as Friday’s PCE reading and more on the Sept. 6 report on August nonfarm payrolls.

“The focus on the Fed is going to be on the jobs front,” Bovino said. “They seem to be more attuned to whether the jobs side is getting a little weaker. I think that’s the focus of their monetary policy.”

In addition to the inflation readings Friday, there will also be a look at personal income in July, which is expected to increase by 0.2%, and consumer spending, which is projected to rise 0.5%.

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Accounting

Business Transaction Recording For Financial Success

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42 minutes ago

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January 18, 2025

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Business Transaction Recording For Financial Success

In the world of financial management, accurate transaction recording is much more than a routine task—it is the foundation of fiscal integrity, operational transparency, and informed decision-making. By maintaining meticulous records, businesses ensure their financial ecosystem remains robust and reliable. This article explores the essential practices for precise transaction recording and its critical role in driving business success.

The Importance of Detailed Transaction Recording
At the heart of accurate financial management is detailed transaction recording. Each transaction must include not only the monetary amount but also its nature, the parties involved, and the exact date and time. This level of detail creates a comprehensive audit trail that supports financial analysis, regulatory compliance, and future decision-making. Proper documentation also ensures that stakeholders have a clear and trustworthy view of an organization’s financial health.

Establishing a Robust Chart of Accounts
A well-organized chart of accounts is fundamental to accurate transaction recording. This structured framework categorizes financial activities into meaningful groups, enabling businesses to track income, expenses, assets, and liabilities consistently. Regularly reviewing and updating the chart of accounts ensures it stays relevant as the business evolves, allowing for meaningful comparisons and trend analysis over time.

Leveraging Modern Accounting Software
Advanced accounting software has revolutionized how businesses handle transaction recording. These tools automate repetitive tasks like data entry, synchronize transactions in real-time with bank feeds, and perform validation checks to minimize errors. Features such as cloud integration and customizable reports make these platforms invaluable for maintaining accurate, accessible, and up-to-date financial records.

The Power of Double-Entry Bookkeeping
Double-entry bookkeeping remains a cornerstone of precise transaction management. By ensuring every transaction affects at least two accounts, this system inherently checks for errors and maintains balance within the financial records. For example, recording both a debit and a credit ensures that discrepancies are caught early, providing a reliable framework for accurate reporting.

The Role of Timely Documentation
Prompt transaction recording is another critical factor in financial accuracy. Delays in documentation can lead to missing or incorrect entries, which may skew financial reports and complicate decision-making. A culture that prioritizes timely and accurate record-keeping ensures that a company always has real-time insights into its financial position, helping it adapt to changing conditions quickly.

Regular Reconciliation for Financial Integrity
Periodic reconciliations act as a vital checkpoint in transaction recording. Whether conducted daily, weekly, or monthly, these reviews compare recorded transactions with external records, such as bank statements, to identify discrepancies. Early detection of errors ensures that records remain accurate and that the company’s financial statements are trustworthy.

Conclusion
Mastering the art of accurate transaction recording is far more than a compliance requirement—it is a strategic necessity. By implementing detailed recording practices, leveraging advanced technology, and adhering to time-tested principles like double-entry bookkeeping, businesses can ensure financial transparency and operational efficiency. For finance professionals and business leaders, precise transaction recording is the bedrock of informed decision-making, stakeholder confidence, and long-term success.

With these strategies, businesses can build a reliable financial foundation that supports growth, resilience, and the ability to navigate an ever-changing economic landscape.

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Economics

A protest against America’s TikTok ban is mired in contradiction

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7 hours ago

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January 17, 2025

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AS A SHUTDOWN looms, TikTok in America has the air of the last day of school. The Brits are saying goodbye to the Americans. Australians are waiting in the wings to replace banished American influencers. And American users are bidding farewell to their fictional Chinese spies—a joke referencing the American government’s accusation that China is using the app (which is owned by ByteDance, a Chinese tech giant) to surveil American citizens.

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Economics

Home insurance costs soar as climate events surge, Treasury Dept. says

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1 day ago

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January 16, 2025

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Firefighters battle flames during the Eaton Fire in Pasadena, California, U.S., Jan. 7, 2025.

Mario Anzuoni | Reuters

Climate-related natural disasters are driving up insurance costs for homeowners in the most-affected regions, according to a Treasury Department report released Thursday.

In a voluminous study covering 2018-22 and including some data beyond that, the department found that there were 84 disasters costing $1 billion or more, excluding floods, and that they caused a combined $609 billion in damages. Floods are not covered under homeowner policies.

During the period, costs for policies across all categories rose 8.7% faster than the rate of inflation. However, the burden went largely to those living in areas most hit by climate-related events.

For consumers living in the 20% of zip codes with the highest expected annual losses, premiums averaged $2,321, or 82% more than those living in the 20% of lowest-risk zip codes.

“Homeowners insurance is becoming more costly and less accessible for consumers as the costs of climate-related events pose growing challenges to both homeowners and insurers alike,” said Nellie Liang, undersecretary of the Treasury for domestic finance.

The report comes as rescue workers continue to battle raging wildfires in the Los Angeles area. At least 25 people have been killed and 180,000 homeowners have been displaced.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the costs from the fires are still unknown, but noted that the report reflected an ongoing serious problem. During the period studied, there was nearly double the annual total of disasters declared for climate-related events as in the period of 1960-2010 combined.

“Moreover, this [wildfire disaster] does not stand alone as evidence of this impact, with other climate-related events leading to challenges for Americans in finding affordable insurance coverage – from severe storms in the Great Plans to hurricanes in the Southeast,” Yellen said in a statement. “This report identifies alarming trends of rising costs of insurance, all of which threaten the long-term prosperity of American families.”

Both homeowners and insurers in the most-affected areas were paying in other ways as well.

Nonrenewal rates in the highest-risk areas were about 80% higher than those in less-risky areas, while insurers paid average claims of $24,000 in higher-risk areas compared to $19,000 in lowest-risk regions.

In the Southeast, which includes states such as Florida and Louisiana that frequently are slammed by hurricanes, the claim frequency was 20% higher than the national average.

In the Southwest, which includes California, wildfires tore through 3.3 million acres during the time period, with five events causing more than $100 million in damages. The average loss claim was nearly $27,000, or nearly 50% higher than the national average. Nonrenewal rates for insurance were 23.5% higher than the national average.

The Treasury Department released its findings with just three days left in the current administration. Treasury officials said they hope the administration under President-elect Donald Trump uses the report as a springboard for action.

“We certainly are hopeful that our successors stay focused on this issue and continue to produce important research on this issue and think about important and creative ways to address it,” an official said.

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