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The fight to win the most unruly institution in Washington

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MIKE LAWLER, a Republican congressman representing New York’s 17th congressional district, considers himself a moderate. Mondaire Jones, a former congressman challenging Mr Lawler, also considers himself a moderate. Neither candidate in this swing race agrees with the other’s self-description. “At the end of the day, if it talks like a socialist, votes like a socialist—folks, it’s socialist,” Mr Lawler said in a recent debate. Mr Jones hit back, “If it talks like a fascist and supports a fascist for president of the United States for the third consecutive presidential election, then it’s a mini-fascist.”

That hyperbole probably won’t sway the contest’s outcome, which is driven more by national trends, but this mostly suburban district north of New York City will help influence which party will control the House of Representatives. Though Senate races get most of the attention, the country’s lower chamber also can make or break the next president’s agenda.

By this point in the election cycle, everyone knows that the presidential election will be decided in six or seven swing states, and that the electoral college gives states in the upper Midwest an outsize say over the future of the free world. The electorate that will determine what the next president will be able to do—the voters who will pick the House majority—are different. During the 2022 midterm elections Republican wins in California and New York, two states used to being ignored in presidential elections, gave the party its majority. Both sides agree that those states could make the difference again. The Economist’s forecast shows that seven of the 20 closest House races are in either New York or California, and are now held by Republicans like Mr Lawler.

Unlike the electoral college, which gives the Republican candidate an advantage worth about two points of the national vote share in this election, the House map is fair. Democrats used to complain about being at a disadvantage due to gerrymandering (the practice of politicians drawing district maps to their advantage). Now we estimate Democrats need only win by one point to have a 50:50 chance of controlling the House.

The tightness in national elections means that control of the House changes often. Between 1955 and 1995 Democrats had the majority. Since 1995 control has switched five times. But the House hasn’t flipped in the opposite direction to a presidential race since the 19th century, and both parties agree that it’s unlikely to happen this year. They also concur that whoever wins a majority will have a narrow one. That means that if Donald Trump wins, Republicans are quite likely to have a House and Senate majority (Republicans are favourites to win the Senate regardless of who takes the White House).

“We’ve expanded the map of competitive districts, which gives us more paths,” says a House Democratic operative, referring to how Joe Biden’s departure from the presidential race boosted down-ballot candidates. Even so, the Democrat believes that only around three dozen races are truly competitive, a view shared by Republican strategists: “I think this really comes down ultimately to a Republican or Democratic plus-five majority.”

Dial five for shutdown

The difference between a five- and ten-seat majority could have tremendous implications for public policy, particularly if Republicans win the House. Their current narrow majority made governing nearly impossible for the past two years, as the party’s nihilists had disproportionate clout. The latest fiscal year was nearly halfway over, for example, by the time Congress approved a permanent government-funding bill. Given that the next president’s ability to govern rides on the shape of Congress, it is perhaps surprising how little money is spent on House campaigns compared with Senate races (let alone the presidential contest).

Congressional Leadership Fund, the most important Republican super PAC for winning the House, raised $81.4m from July to September. House Majority PAC, the equivalent Democratic group, pulled in about $99m. In the Texas Senate race alone the two candidates have raised a total of $166m. The presidential candidates have mustered $1.4bn (campaign groups have gathered an additional $1.3bn). This reflects the fact that House races have been eaten by national politics. If either Kamala Harris or Mr Trump somehow does end up controlling the White House but not the House, it will be because of candidates who managed to defy political gravity in their small corner of the country.

New York’s 17th district is an example. There are almost 90,000 more Democrats than Republicans in Mr Lawler’s seat, which Mr Biden won by double digits in 2020. The candidate will have to buck national trends if he is to remain in Congress. On a recent Sunday, he visited New Life Pentecostal Church in New York’s Hudson Valley. Its pastor, Denochy Cowan, does not endorse candidates, but welcomes any to speak to his congregation, made up of immigrants from Antigua, Haiti, Ghana, Guyana, Jamaica and Kenya. Mr Lawler acknowledged that he may not have much in common with those in the pews, but said it’s OK because that’s what democracy is all about. Paraphrasing Ed Koch, a former New York City mayor, he joked, “If you agree with me on nine out of 12 things, vote for me. If you agree with me on 12 out of 12 things, have your head examined.”

Stay on top of American politics with The US in brief, our daily newsletter with fast analysis of the most important electoral stories, and Checks and Balance, a weekly note from our Lexington columnist that examines the state of American democracy and the issues that matter to voters.

Economics

Layoff announcements surge to the most since the pandemic as Musk’s DOGE slices Federal labor force

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Employees of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) hug each other as they queue outside the Mary E. Switzer Memorial Building, after it was reported that the Trump administration fired staff at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and at the Food and Drug Administration, as it embarked on its plan to cut 10,000 jobs at HHS, in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 1, 2025. 

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

A surge in federal government job cuts contributed to a near record-setting pace for announced layoffs in March, exceeded only by when the country shut down in 2020 for the Covid pandemic, according to a report Thursday from job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Furloughs in the federal government totaled 216,215 for the month, part of a total 275,240 reductions overall in the labor force. Some 280,253 layoffs across 27 agencies in the past two months have been linked to the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency and its efforts to pare down the federal workforce.

The monthly total was surpassed only by April and May of 2020 in the early days of the pandemic when employers announced combined reductions of more than 1 million, according to Challenger records going back to 1989.

“Job cut announcements were dominated last month by Department of Government Efficiency [DOGE] plans to eliminate positions in the federal government,” said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president and workplace expert at the firm. “It would have otherwise been a fairly quiet month for layoffs.”

However, DOGE has continued to cut aggressively across the government.

Various reports have indicated that the Veterans Affairs department could lose 80,000 jobs, the IRS is in line for some 18,000 reductions and Treasury is expected to drop a “substantial” level of workers as well, according to a court filing.

The year to date tally for federal government announced layoffs represents a 672% increase from the same period in 2024, according to Challenger.

To be sure, the outsized layoff plans haven’t made their way into other jobs data.

Weekly unemployment claims have held in a fairly tight range since President Donald Trump took office. Payroll growth has slowed a bit from its pace in 2024 but is still positive, while job openings have receded but only to around their pre-pandemic levels.

However, the Washington, D.C. area has been hit particularly hard by the announced layoffs, which have totaled 278,711 year to date for the city, according to the report.

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Economics

Trump will ‘buckle under pressure’ if Europe bands together over tariffs: German economy minister

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BERLIN, GERMANY – FEBRUARY 24: Robert Habeck, chancellor candidate of the German Greens Party, speaks to the media the day after German parliamentary elections on February 24, 2025 in Berlin, Germany. The Greens came in fourth place with 11.6% of the vote, down 2.9% from the previous election. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

Sean Gallup | Getty Images News | Getty Images

U.S. President Donald Trump will “buckle under pressure” and alter his tariff policies if Europe bands together, acting German economy minister Robert Habeck said Thursday.

“That is what I see, that Donald Trump will buckle under pressure, that he corrects his announcements under pressure, but the logical consequence is that he then also needs to feel the pressure,” he said during a press conference, according to a CNBC translation.

“And this pressure now needs to be unfolded, from Germany, from Europe in the alliance with other countries, and then we will see who is the stronger one in this arm wrestle,” Habeck said.

Elsewhere, outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he believed the latest tariff decisions by Trump were “fundamentally wrong,” according to a CNBC translation.

The measures are an attack on the global trade order and will result in suffering for the global economy, Scholz said.

On Wednesday, Trump imposed 20% levies on the European Union, including on the bloc’s foremost economy Germany, as he signed a sweeping and aggressive “reciprocal tariff” policy.

Germany is widely regarded as one of the countries likely to be most impacted by Trump’s tariffs, given its heavy economic reliance on trade.

This is a developing story, please check back for updates.

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Economics

The Trump train slows

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THESE DAYS are dire and dour for Democrats. But April 1st brought a brief reprieve—and not because of jokes. That was the day that the most expensive judicial election in American history in the battleground state of Wisconsin ended in a decisive triumph for the left-leaning candidate. It had drawn $100m of spending, including an estimated $25m from Elon Musk who also, perhaps unhelpfully, personally campaigned in the state. The same day, two special elections in Florida for vacant congressional seats took place in safe Republican districts. Although they did not win, Democrats improved their margins by 17 and 20 percentage points compared with the general elections held just five months ago. Cory Booker, a Democratic senator from New Jersey, staged a one-man protest on the floor of the Senate, excoriating President Donald Trump’s administration for 25 hours straight—a stunt, to be sure, but one that demonstrated proof of life in a party that supporters worried had gone limp.

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