Finance
‘The time has come for policy to adjust’
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell laid the groundwork Friday for interest rate cuts ahead, though he declined to provide exact indications on timing or extent.
“The time has come for policy to adjust,” the central bank leader said in his much-awaited keynote address at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”
Watch live: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks from Jackson Hole conference
With markets awaiting direction on where monetary policy is headed, Powell focused as much on a look back at what caused the inflation that led to an aggressive series of 13 rate hikes from March 2022 through July 2023.
However, he did note the progress on inflation and said the Fed can now turn its focus equally to other side of its dual mandate, namely to make sure the economy stays around full employment.
“Inflation has declined significantly. The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic,” Powell said. “Supply constraints have normalized. And the balance of the risks to our two mandates has changed.”
He vowed that “we will do everything we can” to make sure the labor market says strong and progress on inflation continues.
Stocks added to gains as Powell began to speak while Treasury yields dropped sharply . Traders maintained a 100% chance of at least a quarter percentage point rate cut in September and raised the odds of a potential half-point reduction to about 1-in-3, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch.
“This was a valedictory of essentially Chair Powell turning the page, saying the mission, which has been focused on inflation for the last two years, has been successful,” economist Paul McCulley, the former Pimco managing director, said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.”
Sees progress towards goals
The speech comes with the inflation rate consistently drifting back to the Fed’s 2% target though still not there yet. A gauge the Fed prefers to measure inflation most recently showed the rate at 2.5%, down from 3.2% a year ago and well off its peak above 7% in June 2022.
At the same time, the unemployment rate has slowly but consistently climbed higher, most recently at 4.3% and in an area that otherwise would trigger a time-tested indicator of a recession. However, Powell attributed the rise in unemployment to more individuals entering the workforce and a slower pace of hiring, rather than a rise in layoffs or a general deterioration in the labor market.
“Our objective has been to restore price stability while maintaining a strong labor market, avoiding the sharp increases in unemployment that characterized earlier disinflationary episodes when inflation expectations were less well anchored,” he said. “While the task is not complete, we have made a good deal of progress toward that outcome.”
Markets are expecting the Fed to start cutting in September, though Powell made no mention of when he thinks policy easing will begin. Minutes from the July open market committee meeting, released Wednesday, noted that a “vast majority” of officials believe a September cut will be appropriate so long as there are no data surprises.
“He’s pretty dovish. He bought the option to do whatever he needs to do next month, which is clearly an ease,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. “I don’t think the bar for 50 [basis points] is particularly high.”
In addition to assessing the current state of play, Powell took considerable time in the speech to evaluate what led to the surge in inflation — hitting its highest level in more than 40 years — as well as the Fed’s policy response and why price pressures have eased without a recession.
‘Good ship Transitory’
When inflation first began to rise in early 2021, he and his colleagues — as well as many Wall Street economists — dismissed it as “transitory” and caused by Covid-related factors that would abate.
“The good ship Transitory was a crowded one,” Powell quipped to laughter form attendees, “with most mainstream analysts and advanced-economy central bankers on board. I think I see some former shipmates out there today.”
When it became clear that inflation was spreading from goods to services, the Fed pivoted and began hiking, ultimately adding 5.25 percentage points to its benchmark overnight rate that had been around zero following emergency cuts in the early pandemic days.
The rise in inflation, Powell said, was “a global phenomenon,” the result of “rapid increases in the demand for goods, strained supply chains, tight labor markets, and sharp hikes in commodity prices.”
He attributed confidence in the Fed and well-anchored expectations that inflation ultimately would ease to the economy avoiding a sharp downturn during the hiking cycle.
“The FOMC did not flinch from carrying out our responsibilities, and our actions forcefully demonstrated our commitment to restoring price stability,” he said. “An important takeaway from recent experience is that anchored inflation expectations, reinforced by vigorous central bank actions, can facilitate disinflation without the need for slack.”
Powell added that there is still “much to be learned” from the experience.
“That is my assessment of events. Your mileage may differ,” he said.
Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Bitcoin fell below the $79,000 level as investors braced for more financial market volatility after U.S. equites suffered their worst decline since 2020 on the rollout of President Donald Trump’s restrictive global tariffs.
The price of bitcoin was last lower by 4% at $78,835.07, according to Coin Metrics, after trading above the $80,000 for most of this year — barring a couple brief blips below it amid recent volatility. It’s off its January all-time high by about 34%.
Although the flagship cryptocurrency usually trades like a big tech stock and is often viewed by traders as a leading indicator of market sentiment, it bucked the broader market meltdown last week – holding in the $80,000 to $90,000 range and rising to end the week as stocks tumbled and even gold fell.
Other cryptocurrencies suffered bigger losses overnight. Ether and the token tied to Solana tumbled 9% each.
Bitcoin’s down move triggered a wave of long liquidations, as traders betting on an increase in its price were forced to sell their assets to cover their losses. In the past 24 hours, bitcoin has seen more than $181 million in long liquidations, according to CoinGlass. Ether saw $188 million in long liquidations in the same period.
Bitcoin has traded mostly above $80,000 in 2025
Rattled investors dumped their holdings of cryptocurrencies, which trade 24 hours, over the weekend as they anticipated further carnage, after Trump’s retaliatory tariffs raised global recession fears and caused investors to sell all risk.
The duties on all imports, in addition to custom tariffs for major trading partners, have sparked worries of a global trade war that could lead the U.S. into a recession. Growing concerns about the far-reaching impact of the tariffs sent markets reeling worldwide.
In the two sessions following the tariff announcement, global stocks wiped out $7.46 trillion in market value based on the market cap of the S&P Global Broad Market Index, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
That figure includes $5.87 trillion lost in the U.S. stock market over those two sessions and another $1.59 trillion loss in market value in other major global markets.
Bitcoin is down 15% in 2025 and, absent a crypto-specific catalyst, is expected to continue moving in tandem with equities as global recession fears overshadow any regulatory tailwinds crypto was expected to benefit from this year.
Finance
Buffett denies social media rumors after Trump shares wild claim that investor backs president crashing market
Warren Buffett went on the record Friday to deny social media posts after President Donald Trump shared on Truth Social a fan video that claimed the president is tanking the stock market on purpose with the endorsement of the legendary investor.
Trump on Friday shared an outlandish social media video that defends his recent policy decisions by arguing he is deliberately taking down the market as a strategic play to force lower interest and mortgage rates.
“Trump is crashing the stock market by 20% this month, but he’s doing it on purpose,” alleged the video, which Trump posted on his Truth Social account.
The video’s narrator then falsely states, “And this is why Warren Buffett just said, ‘Trump is making the best economic moves he’s seen in over 50 years.'”
The president shared a link to an X post from the account @AmericaPapaBear, a self-described “Trumper to the end.” The X post itself appears to be a repost of a weeks-old TikTok video from user @wnnsa11. The video has been shared more than 2,000 times on Truth Social and nearly 10,000 times on X.
Buffett, 94, didn’t single out any specific posts, but his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway outright rejected all comments claimed to be made by him.
“There are reports currently circulating on social media (including Twitter, Facebook and Tik Tok) regarding comments allegedly made by Warren E. Buffett. All such reports are false,” the company said in a statement Friday.
CNBC’s Becky Quick spoke to Buffett Friday about this statement and he said he wanted to knock down misinformation in an age where false rumors can be blasted around instantaneously. Buffett told Quick that he won’t make any commentary related to the markets, the economy or tariffs between now and Berkshire’s annual meeting on May 3.
‘A tax on goods’
While Buffett hasn’t spoken about this week’s imposition of sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration, his view on such things has pretty much always been negative. Just in March, the Berkshire CEO and chairman called tariffs “an act of war, to some degree.”
“Over time, they are a tax on goods. I mean, the tooth fairy doesn’t pay ’em!” Buffett said in the news interview with a laugh. “And then what? You always have to ask that question in economics. You always say, ‘And then what?'”
During Trump’s first term, Buffett opined at length in 2018 and 2019 about the trade conflicts that erupted, warning that the Republican’s aggressive moves could cause negative consequences globally.
“If we actually have a trade war, it will be bad for the whole world … everything intersects in the world,” Buffett said in a CNBC interview in 2019. “A world that adjusts to something very close to free trade … more people will live better than in a world with significant tariffs and shifting tariffs over time.”
Buffett has been in a defensive mode over the past year as he rapidly dumped stocks and raised a record amount of cash exceeding $300 billion. His conglomerate has a big U.S. focus and has large businesses in insurance, railroads, manufacturing, energy and retail.
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