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The top 10 hot housing markets for 2025, according to NAR

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Buying a house is not easy or cheap, especially in today’s market. 

But while it’s too soon to tell whether the housing market is going to favor buyers or sellers next year, some areas will offer more favorable market conditions than others, according to a new report by the National Association of Realtors.

The NAR identified 10 top metro areas as “housing hot spots” for 2025 based on a variety of economic, demographic and housing factors. 

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“Important factors common among the top performing markets in 2025 include available inventory at affordable price points, a better chance of unlocking low mortgage rates, higher income growth for young adults and net migration into specific metro areas,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist and senior vice president of research, said in a statement.

The top 10 ‘housing hot spots’

“2025 is expected to be a year of more opportunities” for both homebuyers and sellers, said Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of research at the NAR. 

Four out of the NAR’s 10 “hot spots” are located in the South — although unlike other lists, none are in Florida. Another three hot spots are in the Midwest.

Here’s the full NAR list:

  • Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Massachusetts-New Hampshire
  • Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, North Carolina-South Carolina
  • Grand Rapids-Kentwood, Michigan
  • Greenville-Anderson, South Carolina
  • Hartford-East-Hartford-Middletown, Connecticut
  • Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Indiana
  • Kansas City, Missouri-Kansas
  • Knoxville, Tennessee
  • Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Arizona
  • San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas

While the NAR did not rank the hot spots, the metro comprising Greenville and Anderson, South Carolina stands out, according to the report.

Factors like a positive financing environment, strong migration gains, better affordability for first-time buyers, strong job creation and home price appreciation highlight the area, said Evangelou. About 42% of properties in the area are starter homes.

‘Unprecedented times’

While “a lot of these areas have been growing in recent years,” it’s important to remember that “we could potentially be walking into some pretty unprecedented times in 2025 and beyond,” said Jacob Channel, senior economist at LendingTree.

President-elect Donald Trump has been vocal about enacting ideas such as mass deportations and tariffs on all imports, as well as ending the conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, he said. 

If enacted, such ideas could have domino-effects into housing affordability. Immigrants make up about a third, or 32.5%, of construction tradesmen, according to an analysis of 2023 Census data by the National Association of Home Builders.

Change in immigration policy could impact the sector’s labor force. What’s more, with a shortage of workers, wages might go up and be passed onto buyers through higher home prices, experts say.

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Senate may soon vote on a bill to change certain Social Security rules

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Blank Social Security checks are run through a printer at the U.S. Treasury printing facility February 11, 2005 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

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During the Senate’s final days of business in this Congressional session, it is expected to vote on a bill that would change certain Social Security rules.

The bill — the Social Security Fairness Act — would repeal provisions that reduce Social Security benefits for some individuals who also receive pension income from jobs in the public sector.

On Nov. 12, the House of Representatives passed the bill with the support of members of both sides of the aisle.

Now, it is up to the Senate to pass the bill amid a packed schedule that also includes a deadline to avoid a federal government shutdown.

What Social Security rules would be repealed?

The Social Security Fairness Act would eliminate certain rules affecting some public pensioners — the Windfall Elimination Provision, or WEP, and the Government Pension Offset, or GPO.

The WEP reduces Social Security benefit payments for individuals who also receive income from non-covered pensions — payments from employers who did not withhold Social Security taxes from their salaries.

The GPO adjusts Social Security spousal or widow(er) benefits for people who receive income from non-covered pensions.

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Both rules have been in effect for decades.

The WEP was enacted in 1983 to make it so workers with non-covered pensions were not reimbursed as though they were long-time low wage earners. Social Security has a progressive benefit formula, which means low earners receive a higher income replacement rate.

The Government Pension Offset was established in 1977 and reduces Social Security benefits for spouses and surviving spouses who receive a pension based on their own government work that wasn’t subject to Social Security payroll taxes and Social Security spousal benefits based on their spouse’s work record.

Who is — and isn’t — affected by the rules?

The WEP affected 2.01 million individuals — or 3.1% of all Social Security beneficiaries — as of 2022, according to the Social Security Administration.

The GPO applied to almost 735,000 beneficiaries as of 2022, according to the Social Security Administration. That rule affects about 1% of all beneficiaries, according to previous estimates from the Congressional Research Service.  

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To be sure, the WEP and GPO do not apply to everyone.

Specifically, the WEP doesn’t affect beneficiaries who have 30 or more years of substantial earnings under Social Security. The rule also doesn’t apply to individuals who fall under other specific categories, according to the Social Security Administration: federal workers who were first hired after Dec. 31, 1983; employees of non-profit organizations that were exempt from Social Security coverage as of Dec. 31, 1983; individuals who only receive pension income for railroad employment; and individuals whose only work that didn’t include Social Security taxes was before 1957.

The GPO generally doesn’t affect spouses or surviving spouses who receive government pensions not based on their earnings or who are federal, state or local government employees whose pension is from employment where they paid Social Security taxes.

The Social Security Administration provides a tool on its website to help estimate how a pension may affect Social Security benefits.

What are the chances the bill will pass?

Last week, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-New York, said he would put the Social Security Fairness Act up for a vote.

Schumer has since filed a notice that he intends to call a cloture vote on the motion to proceed this week. If the cloture vote to proceed has the necessary 60 votes, the rest of the process may go “fairly quickly,” said Maria Freese, senior legislative representative at the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.

“The big vote is usually the motion to proceed,” Freese said. “If they can get 60 for that, then they should be in pretty good shape to get it done this year.”

A Senate version of the bill has 62 co-sponsors. However, there is no guarantee the bill will get 62 votes, Freese said. Two co-sponsors — Sens. Bob Menendez, D-New Jersey, and Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif. — are no longer in office. However, their replacements — Sens. Andy Kim, D-New Jersey, and Adam Schiff, D-California — both supported the bill when they were House members.

Yet another co-sponsor — Vice president-elect and current Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio — may not be present to vote, Freese said.

Once a motion to proceed passes, amendments to the bill could be proposed if Senate leadership allows for it, said Emerson Sprick, associate director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. Those amendments could seek to replace a full repeal of the rules with a different fix or to offset the cost of the benefit increases.

“It has not been the ideal process for a significant change to Social Security to go through,” Sprick said.

The co-sponsors of the House bill had to file a discharge petition to bring it to the floor for a vote, which means it didn’t go through committees. Similarly, lawmakers in the Senate have not had the opportunity to hear the drawbacks of a full repeal of the rules and the alternatives, Sprick said.

“Full repeal makes the program less fair and more financially insecure,” Sprick said.

How soon would affected beneficiaries see changes in their benefit checks?

The change for nearly 3 million Social Security beneficiaries may take time to implement, according to Freese.

The Social Security Administration, which is already short staffed, may lose another 2,000 employees if it does not get the additional funding it requested in the continuing resolution Congress is also working to finalize, she said.

Moreover, it would take time for the agency’s staff to reprogram its computers and then begin sending out the new benefit payment amounts.

If the change is not put into effect immediately, the Social Security Administration will likely retroactively send catch-up checks or deposits to make up for the difference, Freese said.

How will the bill affect other Social Security reform?

The Social Security Fairness Act has received strong support from groups representing firefighters, police, teachers and other government employees who would be affected by the repeal of these rules.

However, policy experts have generally voiced opposition to the change, since nixing the rules would alter the progressive nature of the program.

It would also move Social Security’s projected trust fund depletion date to six months sooner, while costing about $196 billion over a decade, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Even without this change, the trust fund the program relies on to pay retirement benefits may run out in nine years, the program’s trustees have projected.

“We are racing to our own fiscal demise,” Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said in a statement criticizing the efforts to repeal the WEP and GPO rules.

If the bill passes, it would also affect future reform efforts. But the problems Social Security now faces are bigger than just paying for the WEP and GPO repeal, Freese said.

“The closer it gets to the depletion date, the harder it gets, because you end up having less flexibility in terms of what you can do for the program in order to make it solvent,” Freese said. “You have less time to implement the changes.”

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How to leverage the higher 401(k) plan contribution limit for 2025

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If you’re eager to save more for retirement, it’s not too early to boost 401(k) plan contributions for 2025, financial experts say.

For 2025, you can defer up to $23,500 into 401(k) plans, up from $23,000 in 2024. For workers age 50 and older, the 401(k) catch-up contribution remains at $7,500 for 2025.

But there’s a “super funding” opportunity for 401(k) catch-up contributions for a subset of savers, according to Tommy Lucas, a certified financial planner and enrolled agent at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, Florida.

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Enacted via Secure 2.0, the 2025 catch-up contribution limit will increase to $11,250 for employees ages 60 to 63, which brings the 401(k) deferral total to $34,750 for these investors.  

“Probably no one knows about the extra increase,” and it could take time before the general public is aware of the new opportunity, said Boston-area CFP and enrolled agent Catherine Valega, founder of Green Bee Advisory.

However, boosting contributions later could still be beneficial for savers in this age range, experts say.

Increase 401(k) deferrals for 2025 now

If you plan to adjust 401(k) deferrals for 2025, “now is the time to be doing it,” Valega said.

Typically, it takes a couple of pay periods for 401(k) contribution changes to go into effect, and you could miss some higher contributions in January by waiting, she said.

If you miss bigger deposits early, you can still max out your plan by boosting deferrals later in the year. But higher percentages can “impact cash flow more than people are typically willing to do,” Valega said. 

Lucas said he updated next year’s 401(k) contributions for his clients in early December.

“It’s already set for next year,” he said. “We’re on pace, starting with the first payroll.”

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Of course, many workers can’t afford to max out their 401(k) plan every year.

Roughly 14% of employees maxed out 401(k) plans in 2023, according to Vanguard’s 2024 How America Saves report, based on data from 1,500 qualified plans and nearly 5 million participants.

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Student loan forgiveness chances lost to those who refinance: CFPB

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With the Federal Reserve’s recent moves to lower interest rates — and further cuts on the horizon — some federal student loan borrowers are wondering if now is a good time to refinance.

“We are already seeing more borrowers tempted to refinance their federal loans,” said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors.

Refinancing your federal student loans turns them into a private student loan and transfers the debt from the government to a private company. Borrowers usually refinance in search of a lower interest rate.

But the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has new warnings about refinancing student debt.

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In a report published Monday, the CFPB said that private lenders use “deceptive” practices in their marketing and disclosure materials, misleading student borrowers about a key pitfall of refinancing: Those who do so lose access to federal student loan forgiveness options.

“Companies break the law when they mislead student borrowers about their protections or deny borrowers their rightful benefits,” said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra. “Student loan companies should not profit by violating the law.”

Federal forgiveness chances dashed with refinancing

Some private lenders give the wrong impression “that refinancing federal loans might not result in forfeiting access to federal forgiveness programs, when, in fact, it was a certainty,” the CFPB report says.

The federal government offers a range of student debt forgiveness programs, including Public Service Loan Forgiveness and Teacher Loan Forgiveness.

PSLF allows certain not-for-profit and government employees to have their federal student loans cleared after 10 years of on-time payments. Under TLF, those who teach full-time for five consecutive academic years in a low-income school or educational service agency can be eligible for loan forgiveness of up to $17,500. These options are not available to private student loan borrowers.

Borrowers refinancing would also not be eligible for one-off forgiveness efforts like President Joe Biden’s Plan B.

Private student loan borrowers who are struggling to pay their bills don’t have a right to an income-driven repayment plan, either.

IDR plans allow federal student borrowers to pay just a share of their discretionary income toward their debt each month. The plans also lead to debt forgiveness after a certain period.

Borrowers who refinance their student loans lose access to these federal relief options, the CFPB said.

And this has cost borrowers.

“The lenders profited from borrowers paying the full amount of their loans, when the borrowers otherwise potentially could have had some or all of those loans forgiven,” the bureau wrote in its report.

Lenders do inform borrowers of what benefits they may give up by making moves like refinancing, said Scott Buchanan, executive director of the Student Loan Servicing Alliance, a trade group for student loan servicers.

Buchanan said the government’s changing promises around student loan forgiveness has led to a lack of clarity. (Republican-led legal challenges have stymied the Biden administration’s efforts to deliver wide-scale student loan forgiveness to borrowers.)

“That volatility and confusion is something the Bureau needs to take up with the Department of Education,” Buchanan said.

But the federal government’s long-standing student loan forgiveness programs and other relief measures are reasons alone to think twice before refinancing, Mayotte said.

“We almost always very strongly recommend against it,” she said.

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