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Trump plans to dismantle Biden’s climate law. It won’t be easy

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President-elect Donald Trump will be empowered by Republican gains on Capitol Hill to pull back portions of the Democrats’ signature climate law he calls “the green new scam,” which devoted hundreds of billions of dollars to subsidizing emission-free energy.

Just don’t expect a wholesale repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act.

“We are not looking at immediate, drastic, apocalyptic changes overnight,” said James Lucier, managing director at research group Capital Alpha Partners. “But there is always a strong likelihood that some parts of the IRA are going to be capped or phased out.” 

Donald Trump during an election night event in West Palm Beach, Florida
Donald Trump during an election night event in West Palm Beach, Florida

Win McNamee/Photographer: Win McNamee/Getty

The IRA fused climate policy with industrial policy, subsidizing electric vehicle, battery and solar manufacturing and other enterprises that will help the U.S. decarbonize. Trump’s return will put the resiliency of this approach to the test. 

The law is driving a wave of investment in red districts. Some GOP lawmakers, loath to give that up, have already said they don’t support making significant changes to the law. And although no Republicans voted for the measure two years ago, some of its incentives, such as credits for producing hydrogen and capturing carbon dioxide, are very popular with oil companies and other core GOP constituencies.

Gina McCarthy, a former White House climate adviser and managing co-chair of the climate coalition America Is All In, called any attempt to roll back the IRA “a fool’s agenda.” 

“Republican members of Congress have been joining hundreds of business leaders at ribbon cuttings and groundbreaking ceremonies” for IRA-supported projects, McCarthy said. (America Is All In is supported by Bloomberg Philanthropies, the philanthropic organization of Michael Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP.)

But Trump’s presidency is almost certain to usher in new restrictions, expiration dates and caps that narrow its scope. That could help offset the costs of extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts before they expire next year, a top priority of the president-elect and other Republicans. 

The IRA “is the doomsday machine for the budget,” Scott Bessent, a top Trump economic adviser and potential Treasury Secretary pick, who serves as chief executive at the hedge fund Key Square Group, told CNBC. “I think the priority is going to be turning off the IRA.”

ClearView Energy Partners said in a note Thursday that top targets for elimination in the law include credits for used and commercial EVs; a fee on methane emissions levied on oil and gas producers; and billions of dollars in authority given to an Energy Department loan program. A clawback of unused funds for federal climate programs is possible, as is “an attempt to claw back obligated-but-undistributed balances,” the Washington-based consulting firm said.

The success of such efforts is likely contingent on the size of the expected Republican majority in the House. While many races have yet to be called, Republicans appear on track to hold at least a slim majority. They would likely need a much larger one to make major cuts to the law. 

Changes could happen administratively, too. Even without action from Congress, IRA opponents say, the Treasury Department could tighten rules around who can claim tax credits. For instance, strict rules on the sourcing of materials from China and other foreign adversaries, put in place for electric vehicle tax credits, could be applied more broadly to other incentives, such as the advanced manufacturing credit for solar panels and other clean-energy technologies. 

A policy that allows leased electric vehicles to evade those requirements, derided by critics as the “leasing loophole,” is almost certainly done for, analysts say. 

Other rules requiring the use of domestically sourced contents will likely be made more stringent, while bonus credits, such as those for projects built in “energy communities,” could be narrowed. 

Taking a scalpel — not a sledgehammer — to the IRA would still generate revenue to help pay for a tax cut extension. Some lawmakers have already advanced plans to bar companies tied to China and other so-called “foreign entities of concern” from collecting tax credits under the law. That would scale back the expected payouts and align with Republican interests in separating U.S. supply chains from China.

A Republican Congress is also likely to phase out a pair of technology-neutral clean electricity generation credits that go into effect next year. Those credits alone, expected to benefit utility-scale solar and onshore wind, could be a ripe target for lawmakers looking for budget cuts, since they aren’t set to end until the later part of 2032 or until carbon dioxide emissions from the U.S. electricity sector decline to at least 75% below 2022 levels. Some analysts have predicted that won’t happen for another 30 to 40 years. 

“We are talking decades, and definitely trillions of dollars,” said Ryan Sweezey, a director at energy research firm Wood Mackenzie Ltd.

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Accounting

Instead adds AI-driven tax reports

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Tax management platform Instead launched artificial intelligence-driven tax reports, harnessing AI to analyze full tax returns to glean tax strategies and missed opportunities.

The San Francisco-based company’s reports, which are designed for clarity and compliance, include:

  • Tax Return Analysis Report, which reveals tax-saving opportunities in tax returns for individuals (1040) and businesses (Schedule C, E, F, 1120, 1120S, 1065).
  • Tax Plan Report, which provides a real-time summary and action list of all tax strategies across all entities in a tax year and includes potential and actual savings, summaries for each tax strategy, and IRS and court case references.
  • Tax Strategy Reports for every tax strategy, with detailed calculations of deductions and credits, supporting documentation, and an actionable plan.

Instead users can collaborate with their tax professionals on the platform or search the Instead directory of firms that support the platform and offer tax planning and advisory services. 

Andrew Argue

Andrew Argue

“We are excited to bring our users the future of smart, effective decisions when it comes to filing taxes,” said Andrew Argue, co-founder of Instead, in a statement. “With Instead, users can easily uncover and implement tax strategies and opportunities that will save them money and have the transparent calculations to support a tax return. And this is just the beginning…we have some exciting things on our roadmap and look forward to sharing them very soon!”

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Accounting

Half of accountants expect firms to shrink headcount by 20%

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Fifty-two percent of accountants expect their firms to shrink in headcount by 20% in the next five years, according to a new report.

The Indiana CPA Society, in collaboration with CPA Crossings, released today a 2025 Workforce Transformation report. Paradoxically, while it found that most respondents anticipate their firms to reduce headcount, 75% said that their firms will need the same amount or more staff to meet future client demand. 

Sixty percent of respondents said that entry-level professionals are the role they anticipate needing fewer employees in the future due to automation. Nearly half as many responded saying experienced professionals (approximately 33%) and manager-level roles (approximately 25%). 

The report highlights the weaknesses of the pyramid-shaped practice structure that is the basis for most firm’s current talent management and workforce development systems. One challenge is the pyramid’s low retention design. 

“The pyramid practice structure was not designed to retain staff. It actually does the opposite. Upward mobility is statistically difficult to attain,” the report reads. “Firms have a lot of requirements for entry-level staff, but there is a lot less need for experienced staff. Firms eventually have a lot of entry-level professionals qualified to become experienced staff but only a few openings. It only gets more difficult as staff try to move from experienced staff to managers. For those who want to move from managers to owners, the wait could be 15 years or more — or maybe never.”

The report discussed the dwindling pipeline of incoming talent, saying, “Currently, there are not enough qualified staff to maintain a bottom layer that is wide enough,” and generational preferences, saying, “Gen Zers are looking for meaning and emotional connection. If they cannot find these connections in their work, it won’t take much for them to decide to move on.”

The final weakness of the pyramid model the report highlighted was advances in technology, particularly automation and artificial intelligence. 

“Advances in technology, especially with automation and artificial intelligence, could obliterate the work being done by the bottom of the pyramid,” the report reads. “This impact is beginning to be seen in accounting firms across the country as manual and time-consuming data entry and reconciliation tasks, once assigned to entry-level staff, are being automated. Firms are already seeing great benefits from this transfer, such as faster and more accurate data processing.”

The report suggests that firms take on a new practice structure that focuses on precision hiring, proactive retention, practical technology implementation, pricing expertise, practice area expansion or focus, and people acceleration. 

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Senate Republicans plan major revisions to Trump tax bill

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The U.S. Capitol

Senate Republicans intend to propose revised tax and health-care provisions to President Donald Trump’s $3 trillion signature economic package this week, shrugging off condemnations of the legislation by Elon Musk as they rush to enact it before July 4. 

The Senate Finance Committee’s plan to extract savings from the Medicaid and — perhaps — Medicare health insurance programs could depart in key respects from the version of the giant bill that narrowly passed the US House in May. The release of the panel’s draft will likely touch off a new round of wrangling between fiscal conservatives and moderates. 

As the debate unfolds, businesses in the energy, health care, manufacturing and financial services industries will be watching closely.  

SALT dilemma

A crucial decision for Majority Leader John Thune, Committee Chairman Mike Crapo and other panel members will be how to handle the $40,000 limit on state and local tax deductions that was crucial to passage of the bill in the House. 

Senate Republicans want to scale back the $350 billion cost of increasing the cap from $10,000 to $40,000 for those making less than $500,000.   

House Speaker Mike Johnson and a group of Republican members from high-tax states have warned that any diminishing of the SALT cap would doom the measure when it comes back to the House for a final vote. At the same time, so-called pass-through businesses in the service sector are pushing to remove a provision in the House bill that limits their ability to claim SALT deductions. 

(Read more:What the House gave the Senate: Inside the ‘Big Beautiful’ bill.“)

The Senate Finance Committee is widely expected to propose extending three business tax breaks that expire after 2029 in the House version to order to make them permanent. They are the research and development deduction, the ability to use depreciation and amortization as the basis for interest expensing and 100% bonus depreciation of certain property, including most machinery and factories.  

Manufacturers and banks are particularly eager to see all of them extended. 

To pay for the items, which most economists rank as the most pro-growth in the overall tax bill, senators may restrict temporary breaks on tips and overtime, which Trump campaigned on during last year’s election in appeals to restaurant and hospitality workers. The White House wants to keep those provisions as is.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said Trump “supports changing” the SALT deduction and it’s up to lawmakers to reach a consensus.

“It’s a horse trading issue with the Senate and the House,” Hassett said Sunday on CBS’s Face the Nation. “The one thing we need and the president wants is a bill that passes, and passes on the Fourth of July.”

The committee will also face tough decisions on green energy tax credits. Scaling those back generates nearly $600 billion in savings in the House bill. 

On Friday, rival House factions released dueling statements. 

The conservative House Freedom Caucus warned that any move to restore some of the credits would prompt its members to vote against the bill. “We want to be crystal clear: If the Senate attempts to water down, strip out, or walk back the hard-fought spending reductions and IRA Green New Scam rollbacks achieved in this legislation, we will not accept it,” the group said. 

In contrast, a group of 13 Republican moderates, led by Pennsylvania’s Brian Fitzpatrick and Virginia’s Jen Kiggans, urged senators to make changes that would benefit renewable energy projects, many in Republican districts, that came about through President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. 

(Listen:The state of the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ and more.“)

“We remain deeply concerned by several provisions, including those which would abruptly terminate several credits just 60 days after enactment for projects that have not yet begun construction,” the lawmakers said in a letter to the Senate. 

Banks are especially interested to ensure that tax credits on their balance sheets as part of renewable energy financing aren’t rendered worthless by the bill. 

Health-care perils

Medicaid and Medicare cuts present the most daunting challenge in the committee’s draft. While Republicans are generally in favor of new work requirements for able-bodied adults to be insured by Medicaid, some moderates like Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska have expressed concern over giving states just a year and a half to implement the requirement.  

Senator Lisa Murkowski House provisions instituting new co-pays for Medicaid recipients and limits on the ability of states to tax Medicaid providers in order to increase federal reimbursement payments are more disputed. 

Senators Josh Hawley of Missouri and Jim Justice of West Virginia have said they oppose these changes.  

To find savings to make up for removing these provisions, Republicans said last week that they are examining whether to put new restrictions on billing practices in Medicare Advantage. Large health insurers that provide those plans would be most affected by such changes. 

Yet overall, GOP leaders say the tax bill remains on schedule and they expect much of the House bill to remain intact. 

The Senate’s rules-keeper is in the process of deciding whether some provisions are not primarily fiscal in nature. Provisions that restrict state regulations on artificial intelligence, ending some gun regulations and putting new limits on federal courts are seen as most vulnerable to being stripped under Senate budget rules. 

Lawmakers are largely taking their cues from Trump and sticking by the $3 trillion bill at the center of the White House’s economic agenda. 

Musk, the biggest political donor of the 2024 campaign, has threatened to help defeat anyone who votes for the legislation, but lawmakers seem to agree that staying in the president’s good graces is the safer path to political survival.

“We are already pretty far down the trail,” Thune told reporters on Thursday afternoon as his colleagues left for the weekend.

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