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Trump tariffs get seal of approval as S&P affirms credit rating

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S&P Global Ratings said revenues from Donald Trump’s tariffs will help soften the blow to the U.S.’s fiscal health from the president’s tax cuts, enabling it to maintain its current credit grade.

While Trump’s trade war has roiled markets, unnerved foreign governments and provoked criticism from leading economists, S&P affirmed its AA+ rating for the U.S. — a score it’s given since 2011, when it first downgraded the world’s largest economy from AAA.

This is in part because it reckons money flowing from the levies will offset the impact on the U.S.’s budget position from the recent tax and spending bill. It kept the outlook for the long-term rating stable.

“Amid the rise in effective tariff rates, we expect meaningful tariff revenue to generally offset weaker fiscal outcomes that might otherwise be associated with the recent fiscal legislation, which contains both cuts and increases in tax and spending,” analysts including Lisa Schineller wrote in a report.

Treasuries ticked higher across the curve on Tuesday, with yields on 10- and 30-year tenors slipping two basis points to 4.31% and 4.91% respectively. A gauge of the dollar traded little changed.

The decision offers a glimmer of good news for Trump by endorsing one of his arguments that imposing tariffs is already helping to improve the nation’s fiscal position. Tariff revenue reached a fresh monthly record in July, with customs duties climbing to $28 billion.

The views of ratings companies have had an important impact on the world’s biggest bond market this year. Deficit concerns prompted Moody’s Ratings to strip the U.S. of its last top credit rating in May, bringing its score in line with S&P and Fitch Ratings. The move sent yields on 30-year Treasuries above 5% and raised the risk of forced selling from some pension funds. 

S&P said the stable outlook indicates its expectation that while the fiscal deficit won’t meaningfully improve, it also won’t persistently deteriorate over the next several years. The company expects net general government debt to surpass 100% of GDP over the next three years, but it thinks the general government deficit will average 6% from 2025 to 2028, down from 7.5% last year.

“It doesn’t signal any material change in the U.S. fiscal health, which is a complex issue,” said Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier Ltd. in Singapore. He adds the recent Moody’s downgrade created a lot of anxiety but it was “really just symbolic” and lagged a change in market perceptions.

Buy America

Whether tariffs will give the U.S. a meaningful revenue boost is a subject of debate among economists, who point to an apparent contradiction at the heart of Trump’s approach: the revenues rely on trade, but Trump has also attempted to pull production back to the U.S. and encourage consumers to buy American-made products — moves that would undercut future levy receipts.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said tariff revenues for all of 2025 could be “well in excess of 1% of GDP,” revising his previous estimate of $300 billion. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the recently passed budget law will add $3.4 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years.

“The pressures on the Fed to again consider defying rates markets and hold next month just received a (rather modest) boost as S&P Global Ratings delivered a solid report card for the US’s economy and outlook.” said Garfield Reynolds, Markets Live team leader at Bloomberg. 

For now, market participants are focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, as they try to gauge whether Treasuries are set for a boost from U.S. interest-rate cuts. 

The S&P report offers “no major support for bonds,” said Chris Iggo, CIO for core investments at AXA Investment Managers, adding that tariff revenue may decline if U.S. consumers switch away from imported goods in favor of domestic. The “most important factors remain to be inflation, jobs data and the Fed’s stance,” he said.

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Accounting

Global ESG Reporting Standards and Double Materiality Compliance

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Corporate accounting departments face expanding reporting expectations as international sustainability disclosure standards achieve regulatory enforcement across major global jurisdictions. Chief Accounting Officers (CAOs) and corporate controllers are establishing rigorous internal accounting controls to treat Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) metrics with the same data precision, auditability, and governance as traditional financial statements.

Regulatory Harmonization Under Global Sustainability Frameworks
The implementation of standardized sustainability reporting frameworks—notably rules established by international sustainability accounting boards—has created unified expectations for public and large private enterprises. Corporations must report standardized metrics covering greenhouse gas emissions (Scope 1, 2, and material Scope 3), energy utilization, workforce demographics, and supply chain governance.

In Europe and other participating international jurisdictions, double materiality principles are mandatory. Under double materiality, organizations must report both how external sustainability risks impact corporate financial performance, and how internal corporate operations affect surrounding environmental and social structures.

Integrating Sustainability Metrics into Core ERP Systems
To provide auditable non-financial data, enterprise organizations are integrating specialized carbon accounting and ESG management platforms directly into core ERP systems. Automated data collectors capture energy utility invoices, logistics fuel consumption metrics, and vendor compliance records in real time.

Establishing automated, traceable data pipelines ensures that non-financial reporting is supported by clear audit trails. This structured approach allows external financial auditors to provide reasonable assurance on sustainability disclosures during annual corporate reporting cycles.

Financial Impacts and Capital Market Disclosure
Accurate ESG reporting directly influences corporate cost of capital and institutional credit ratings. Commercial lenders and institutional asset managers systematically incorporate sustainability metrics into risk pricing models. Companies that demonstrate transparent, verifiable progress in operational energy efficiency and climate risk mitigation benefit from expanded access to green bond markets and lower debt pricing.

Action Steps for Accounting Leadership
1. Implement Double Materiality Frameworks: Conduct comprehensive assessments to identify material financial and operational sustainability metrics.
2. Build Auditable Non-Financial Data Pipelines: Automate ESG data collection within core accounting software to ensure data integrity.
3. Align Sustainability with Annual Financial Filings: Prepare non-financial disclosures concurrently with financial statements to satisfy regulatory audit expectations.

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Accounting

Modernizing Internal Controls: Machine Learning and Continuous Monitoring in Auditing

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Internal audit departments and corporate risk managers are modernizing internal control frameworks by shifting from periodic sampling techniques to continuous monitoring and machine learning analytics. As operational data volumes increase across enterprise organizations, automated control testing ensures financial integrity, prevents corporate fraud, and streamlines annual audit engagements.

The Limitation of Periodic Audit Sampling
Historically, internal and external auditors evaluated internal controls by reviewing random samples of financial transactions—often analyzing less than five percent of total ledger entries. In complex enterprise environments, periodic sampling methods carry inherent risks of overlooking localized financial misstatements, unauthorized disbursements, or operational control breakdowns.

In 2026, progressive internal audit functions are utilizing automated continuous monitoring platforms that evaluate one hundred percent of financial transactions in real time. Continuous control auditing systems continuously monitor general ledger entries, procurement approvals, and expense reimbursements across all operating subsidiaries.

AI-Powered Fraud Detection and Anomaly Identification
Machine learning models trained on historical corporate financial data excel at identifying subtle transactional anomalies that indicate potential fraud or operational error. Automated systems instantly flag duplicate invoice payments, unapproved vendor creation, unusual journal entry timing, and unauthorized override of authority thresholds.

When an anomaly is detected, the automated auditing platform generates an instant risk alert, allowing internal audit teams to investigate root causes immediately. Early detection prevents minor operational errors from escalating into material weaknesses in financial reporting.

Streamlining External Audit Preparation
Continuous internal control monitoring delivers significant benefits during annual external financial audits. External audit firms can review continuous audit logs and automated control testing documentation, reducing the time required for manual field testing.

This integrated approach lowers overall audit compliance fees, reduces administrative burdens on corporate accounting staff, and provides senior management and audit committees with real-time visibility into the organization’s overall risk profile.

Core Implementation Guidelines
1. Transition to 100% Data Testing: Replace legacy sampling methods with automated continuous audit monitoring systems.
2. Deploy Anomaly Detection Algorithms: Implement machine learning models to identify unauthorized transactions and operational control overrides.
3. Align Internal and External Audit Workflows: Coordinate continuous control testing protocols with external auditors to optimize annual compliance cycles.

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Accounting

Automated Tax Compliance and Global Regulatory Harmonization in 2026

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Corporate tax accounting departments are navigating an era of unprecedented regulatory complexity as global tax harmonization frameworks take full effect alongside real-time digital tax reporting mandates. Tax directors and accounting teams are adopting cloud-based tax compliance automation tools to manage multi-jurisdictional tax liabilities and satisfy stringent reporting rules across international jurisdictions.

Implementation of Global Minimum Tax Provisions
The implementation of international tax reform agreements—notably the Pillar Two global minimum tax framework—has reshaped multinational corporate tax planning. Multinational enterprises with consolidated revenues exceeding established thresholds must ensure an effective tax rate of at least 15% across every jurisdiction in which they operate.

Accounting teams are implementing specialized tax calculation modules integrated directly into enterprise resource planning (ERP) platforms. These automated tools calculate effective tax rates per country, identify top-up tax liabilities, and generate standardized compliance documentation required by national tax authorities.

Real-Time Digital Invoicing and E-Reporting Mandates
Tax authorities across Europe, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific have enacted mandatory electronic invoicing (e-invoicing) and continuous transaction controls (CTC). Under these systems, corporate transaction data must be submitted electronically to government portals in real time at the point of sale or invoice issuance.

This shift toward continuous digital tax reporting eliminates traditional annual tax audits in favor of ongoing automated compliance monitoring. Accounting departments are upgrading invoicing software to ensure seamless XML data formatting, digital signature authentication, and real-time validation against tax authority databases.

Automation and Data Analytics in Corporate Tax Strategy
To keep pace with dynamic tax legislation, tax departments are transitioning from reactive compliance teams to proactive strategic advisors. Machine learning algorithms analyze corporate transactional data to identify tax credits, research and development (R&D) incentives, and cross-border transfer pricing adjustments.

By automating routine tax return filings and calculations, corporate tax directors can focus on long-term capital structuring, evaluating the tax implications of corporate mergers, and optimizing international supply chain networks.

Strategic Priorities for Tax Executives
1. ERP System Upgrades: Ensure enterprise software is capable of generating real-time, granular tax data required for global minimum tax compliance.
2. E-Invoicing Integration: Implement scalable e-invoicing platforms to satisfy regional continuous transaction control regulations.
3. Strategic Tax Analytics: Utilize predictive tax modeling tools to evaluate structural changes in corporate operations and cross-border trade.

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