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Trump tax cuts would cost more than almost all federal agencies

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Republican nominee Donald Trump and running mate JD Vance are campaigning on a grab bag of tax cut proposals that could collectively cost as much as $10.5 trillion over a decade, a massive sum that would exceed the combined budgets of every domestic federal agency.

Even if Congress were to eliminate every dollar of non-defense discretionary spending — projected to be $9.8 trillion over the next 10 years — it still wouldn’t offset the estimated expense of the wide-ranging tax cuts Trump and Vance have floated in recent weeks.

The price tag is based on rough, initial estimates from tax and budget specialists because the Trump campaign hasn’t released detailed policy plans for its tax promises.

Former President Donald Trump, right, and Senator JD Vance
Former President Donald Trump, right, and Senator JD Vance

Emily Elconin/Bloomberg

The Trump campaign said in a statement the former president will cut wasteful spending and increase energy production to pay for the tax cuts and lower the national debt. The campaign didn’t offer more detail.

Though Democrat Kamala Harris also has proposed a few large tax cuts — she would exempt tips from taxation and expand the child tax credit — the impact on the nation’s finances pales in comparison. She calls for offsetting the lost income, which one think tank estimates at $2 trillion, with tax increases on corporations and wealthy individuals. 

The sheer magnitude of the Trump campaign’s tax promises make it highly unlikely they all would pass even in a Congress controlled by Trump allies. The Republican ticket’s tax proposals include extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, a big expansion to the child tax credit and exemptions for tips and Social Security payments.

“Congress is not going to pass a $10 trillion deficit-financed tax cut,” said Kyle Pomerleau, a senior fellow with the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute.

Republicans have long argued that tax cuts boost growth. But it’s not clear how much Trump’s proposals, which largely cut levies for individuals rather than businesses, would spur new economic activity.

The combined cost of the Trump plans is so big that if Congress were to try to pass the tax cut proposals and keep spending flat, it means they could continue to fund the military, federal benefit programs, like Social Security, pay interest on the debt — and nothing else. That means eliminating major federal agencies that handle duties such as law enforcement, border security, air traffic control, tax collection and international relations.

Harris and President Joe Biden released a detailed budget proposal this year to cut federal deficits $3 trillion over a decade, by raising taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals and other measures. Those plans mirror some of the offsets Harris has proposed but previously have run into powerful opposition from major business lobbies.

Without those compensating tax increases, the Harris proposals could increase the deficit by as much as $2 trillion over the next decade, according to the University of Pennsylvania Penn Wharton Budget Model. 

Trump’s supporters are accustomed to his impromptu, broad-stroke policy pronouncements, while key Democratic constituency groups demand detailed policy proposals and a firm plan offsetting the cost.

Harris is continuing to roll out policy ideas piecemeal. On Tuesday, she called for an expanded deduction for start-up businesses and her campaign has signaled that more policy plans could be released in the coming weeks.

Tax agenda

For both candidates, much will hinge on how well their party does in congressional elections, said Wendy Edelberg, a former Federal Reserve and Congressional Budget Office economist who’s now director of the Brookings Institution’s Hamilton Project.

The outlook “depends on a million different factors, particularly the balance of power in Congress,” Edelberg said. “Perhaps no policy will get enacted as specifically proposed by either candidate.”

Taxes will be a top agenda item in Congress next year, regardless of who wins the White House or which party controls the House and Senate. Major portions of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts — including lower individual rates and deduction for small businesses — expire at the end of 2025, which will force Congress to address the tax code next year.

Trump has made extending his signature tax law the centerpiece of his agenda. The Congressional Budget Office says that would cost $4.6 trillion over ten years. He’s also floated lowering the corporate rate to 15% from 21%, adding another $874 billion to the total, according to a budget model by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. 

On the campaign trail, the Republican ticket has verbally floated more tax ideas with hefty price tags: excluding Social Security payments from taxes ($1.8 trillion), exempting taxes on tipped wages ($250 billion) and increasing the $2,000 child tax credit per child to $5,000 ($3 trillion). 

Added all up, that’s $10.5 trillion. If Congress were to seriously consider these ideas, official federal scorekeepers would model out the effects, including how the tax cuts interact with one another.

Revenue raisers

Trump has offered very few options to raise more federal revenue. He’s vowed to block any cuts to Medicare and Social Security benefits and has called for an increase in military spending. He’s proposed universal tariffs ranging from 10-20%, which on the lowest end of the spectrum could bring in $2.8 trillion over ten years, according to the left-leaning Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

That has the potential to cover some of the cost of his tax cuts, but doesn’t take into account what economists warn are large negative economic growth effects or the cost of compensating farmers for trade retaliation from other countries. 

The rising national debt is already stoking concern among investors and ratings agencies. 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has warned that higher government budget deficits are on an unsustainable path.  In November, Moody’s Investors Service signaled it could downgrade the U.S. from the highest investment grade, Aaa.

CBO projects federal debt held by the public will exceed 100% of the GDP next year and rise to 122% in ten years without any new tax cuts.

“The fiscally responsible thing for either candidate to do, if they are proposing tax cuts, is to tell us how they are going to pay for them,” said Keith Hall of George Mason University, who once led the nonpartisan CBO. 

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Accounting

GASB issues guidance on capital asset disclosures

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The Governmental Accounting Standards Board issued guidance today that will require separate disclosures for certain types of capital assets for the purposes of note disclosures.

GASB Statement No. 104, Disclosure of Certain Capital Assets, also establishes requirements and additional disclosures for capital assets held for sale. 

The statement requires certain types of assets to be disclosed separately in the note disclosures about capital assets. The intent is to allow users to make better informed decisions and to evaluate accountability. The requirements are effective for fiscal years beginning after June 15, 2025, and all reporting periods thereafter, though earlier application is encouraged.

The guidance requires separate disclosures for four types of capital assets:

  1. Lease assets reported under Statement 87, by major class of underlying asset;
  2. Intangible right-to-use assets recognized by an operator under Statement 94, by major class of underlying asset;
  3. Subscription assets reported under Statement 96; and,
  4. Intangible assets other than those listed in items 1-3, by major class of asset.

Under the guidance, a capital asset is a capital asset held for sale if the government has decided to pursue the sale of the asset, and it is probable the sale will be finalized within a year of the financial statement date. A government should disclose the historical cost and accumulated depreciation of capital assets held for sale, by major class of asset.

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Accounting

On the move: RRBB hires tax partner

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Uddin-Suha-RRBB.jpg
Suha Uddin

BRIAN BOUMAN MEMORY CREATIO

Suha Uddin was hired as a tax partner at RRBB Advisors, Somerset. 

Sax, Paterson, announced that its annual run/walk event SAX 4 Miler, supporting the Child Life Department at St. Joseph’s Children’s Hospital in Paterson, has achieved $1 million in total funds raised since its inception in 2012.    

Withum, Princeton, rolled out a new outsourcing service offering as part of its sustainability and ESG practice designed to help companies comply with the European Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive, the mandate requires reporting of detailed sustainability performance as it pertains to the European Sustainability Reporting Standards , effective January 2023.

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Accounting

Armanino takes on minority investment from Further Global

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Top 25 Firm Armanino LLP has taken on a strategic minority investment from private equity firm Further Global Capital Management.

The deal, which closed today, is the latest in the series of investments by private equity in large accounting firms that began in 2021 — but with a key difference, Armanino CEO Matt Armanino told Accounting Today.

“What’s maybe the punchline here — what’s really unique, I think — is that we wanted to focus on a minority investment that allowed us to retain not just operational control of the business, but ownership control of the business,” he said. “Those are some of the guiding principles that we’ve been thinking about over the last number of years, and we felt like if we could accomplish those things strategically with the right partner, it would really be just a home run, and that’s where we think we’ve landed.”

As is common with CPA firms taking on private equity investment, Armanino LLP will restructure to an alternative practice structure, splitting into two independently owned and governed professional-services entities: Armanino LLP, a licensed CPA firm wholly owned by individual CPAs, will provide attest services to clients, and Armanino Advisory LLC, a consulting and advisory firm, will perform non-attest services.

Inside the deal

As have many large firms, Armanino LLP had been looking at private equity for some time.

“We’ve been analyzing the PE trend over the last few years and our discussions with Further Global actually began several years ago, and along the way we confirmed our initial inclination that Further Global would be a great partner for us,” CEO Armanino said.

“We had the opportunity to meet with dozens of leading private equity firms,” he explained. “Ultimately we concluded that Further Global would be the best partner for us based on their expertise in partnering with professional service businesses in particular, and our desire for a minority deal structure.”

Matt Armanino
Matt Armanino

Robert Mooring

While citing Further Global’s “deep domain expertise” in financial services and business services firms, Armanino noted that this would be the PE firm’s first foray into the accounting profession: “This is their first accounting firm deal, and I think they’re only focused on this one at this time.”

An employee-owned PE firm, Further Global invests in companies in the business services and financial services industries, and has raised over $2.2 billion of capital.

Guggenheim Securities LLC served as the financial advisor and sole private placement agent to Armanino LLP, while Hunton Andrews Kurth LLP acted as its legal counsel. Further Global was advised by Pointe Advisory, with Kirkland & Ellis as legal counsel.

“Armanino ranks as high as any CPA firm in the country with the private equity community,” commented Allan Koltin, CEO of Koltin Consulting Group, who has advised Armanino for over two decades. “Their deal with Further Global fit just like a glove. They will keep control and now have the capital structure to compete on the biggest of stages.”

Internally, the Armanino partner group was unanimous in its support for the deal — and in its insistence on only selling a minority stake.

“We’ve had transparent discussions at the leadership level around not only adding an outside investor, but we knew very early on that a minority investment was the best path forward for us, and we were very excited that there was unanimous support from the entire partnership group around that decision,” Armanino said. “This structure is also going to allow the long-term owners and partners of Armanino to maintain full control over our day-to-day operations, and the proud culture that we’ve built.”

“No other firm in the Top 25 has a structure like this, and I think that’s pretty significant,” he added.

Capital plans

The goal of the deal is to give Armanino the capital it needs to take itself to a new level of growth while also addressing some of the most pressing challenges in accounting: investing in technology, pursuing inorganic growth through M&A, and attracting and retaining talent.

The firm has always been tech-forward, and recently has been a major pioneer in artificial intelligence.

“The capital will enable us to fast-track our investments in advanced technology solutions, particularly AI,” said Matt Armanino. “We’ve seen growing desire from our clients to deploy real applications for AI solutions. And while we’ve been at the forefront of automation and AI since the early days, with the development of our AI Lab a few years ago, innovative AI-driven solutions that address our clients’ most urgent challenges remain a top priority for us.”

Beyond technology investments, the firm plans to continue its aggressive M&A strategy, which has brought on 19 acquisitions since 2019.

“Those transactions have allowed us to expand our capabilities and enter into new markets and drive greater value to our clients,” said Armanino. “And we think we can accelerate that now with this capital structure that we have.”

All that M&A has brought the firm a lot of fresh talent, but no firm these days has enough, and that’s a third purpose for the new capital.

“We think there remains a lot of ripe talent across the country out there,” he said. “I think the capital will support our efforts to attract, retain, develop and reward top talent by investing in people who drive our entrepreneurial spirit here at the firm.”

The deal will allow the firm to reward top talent, for instance through equity plans that allow them to extend the firm’s ownership culture beyond the partner group that it has traditionally been restricted to.

“In many cases, for our most senior employees today, there’s not a natural mechanism to align their effort to the success of the firm to the growth of our enterprise value and how that ultimately rewards them,” explained Armanino. “And we are very excited that we have new mechanisms, and plans in place, that are going to allow us to do that very well, and effectively push down the benefits of ownership and that ownership culture to our most senior employees.”

“Finally,” he added, “speaking to our innovative culture — and that’s a big part of our brand — the capital will empower us to say ‘Yes’ more frequently to great ideas, to entrepreneurial ideas and initiatives that truly make a difference for our clients and set us apart as a leader in this industry.”

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