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Trump tax cuts would cost more than almost all federal agencies

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Republican nominee Donald Trump and running mate JD Vance are campaigning on a grab bag of tax cut proposals that could collectively cost as much as $10.5 trillion over a decade, a massive sum that would exceed the combined budgets of every domestic federal agency.

Even if Congress were to eliminate every dollar of non-defense discretionary spending — projected to be $9.8 trillion over the next 10 years — it still wouldn’t offset the estimated expense of the wide-ranging tax cuts Trump and Vance have floated in recent weeks.

The price tag is based on rough, initial estimates from tax and budget specialists because the Trump campaign hasn’t released detailed policy plans for its tax promises.

Former President Donald Trump, right, and Senator JD Vance
Former President Donald Trump, right, and Senator JD Vance

Emily Elconin/Bloomberg

The Trump campaign said in a statement the former president will cut wasteful spending and increase energy production to pay for the tax cuts and lower the national debt. The campaign didn’t offer more detail.

Though Democrat Kamala Harris also has proposed a few large tax cuts — she would exempt tips from taxation and expand the child tax credit — the impact on the nation’s finances pales in comparison. She calls for offsetting the lost income, which one think tank estimates at $2 trillion, with tax increases on corporations and wealthy individuals. 

The sheer magnitude of the Trump campaign’s tax promises make it highly unlikely they all would pass even in a Congress controlled by Trump allies. The Republican ticket’s tax proposals include extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, a big expansion to the child tax credit and exemptions for tips and Social Security payments.

“Congress is not going to pass a $10 trillion deficit-financed tax cut,” said Kyle Pomerleau, a senior fellow with the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute.

Republicans have long argued that tax cuts boost growth. But it’s not clear how much Trump’s proposals, which largely cut levies for individuals rather than businesses, would spur new economic activity.

The combined cost of the Trump plans is so big that if Congress were to try to pass the tax cut proposals and keep spending flat, it means they could continue to fund the military, federal benefit programs, like Social Security, pay interest on the debt — and nothing else. That means eliminating major federal agencies that handle duties such as law enforcement, border security, air traffic control, tax collection and international relations.

Harris and President Joe Biden released a detailed budget proposal this year to cut federal deficits $3 trillion over a decade, by raising taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals and other measures. Those plans mirror some of the offsets Harris has proposed but previously have run into powerful opposition from major business lobbies.

Without those compensating tax increases, the Harris proposals could increase the deficit by as much as $2 trillion over the next decade, according to the University of Pennsylvania Penn Wharton Budget Model. 

Trump’s supporters are accustomed to his impromptu, broad-stroke policy pronouncements, while key Democratic constituency groups demand detailed policy proposals and a firm plan offsetting the cost.

Harris is continuing to roll out policy ideas piecemeal. On Tuesday, she called for an expanded deduction for start-up businesses and her campaign has signaled that more policy plans could be released in the coming weeks.

Tax agenda

For both candidates, much will hinge on how well their party does in congressional elections, said Wendy Edelberg, a former Federal Reserve and Congressional Budget Office economist who’s now director of the Brookings Institution’s Hamilton Project.

The outlook “depends on a million different factors, particularly the balance of power in Congress,” Edelberg said. “Perhaps no policy will get enacted as specifically proposed by either candidate.”

Taxes will be a top agenda item in Congress next year, regardless of who wins the White House or which party controls the House and Senate. Major portions of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts — including lower individual rates and deduction for small businesses — expire at the end of 2025, which will force Congress to address the tax code next year.

Trump has made extending his signature tax law the centerpiece of his agenda. The Congressional Budget Office says that would cost $4.6 trillion over ten years. He’s also floated lowering the corporate rate to 15% from 21%, adding another $874 billion to the total, according to a budget model by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. 

On the campaign trail, the Republican ticket has verbally floated more tax ideas with hefty price tags: excluding Social Security payments from taxes ($1.8 trillion), exempting taxes on tipped wages ($250 billion) and increasing the $2,000 child tax credit per child to $5,000 ($3 trillion). 

Added all up, that’s $10.5 trillion. If Congress were to seriously consider these ideas, official federal scorekeepers would model out the effects, including how the tax cuts interact with one another.

Revenue raisers

Trump has offered very few options to raise more federal revenue. He’s vowed to block any cuts to Medicare and Social Security benefits and has called for an increase in military spending. He’s proposed universal tariffs ranging from 10-20%, which on the lowest end of the spectrum could bring in $2.8 trillion over ten years, according to the left-leaning Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

That has the potential to cover some of the cost of his tax cuts, but doesn’t take into account what economists warn are large negative economic growth effects or the cost of compensating farmers for trade retaliation from other countries. 

The rising national debt is already stoking concern among investors and ratings agencies. 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has warned that higher government budget deficits are on an unsustainable path.  In November, Moody’s Investors Service signaled it could downgrade the U.S. from the highest investment grade, Aaa.

CBO projects federal debt held by the public will exceed 100% of the GDP next year and rise to 122% in ten years without any new tax cuts.

“The fiscally responsible thing for either candidate to do, if they are proposing tax cuts, is to tell us how they are going to pay for them,” said Keith Hall of George Mason University, who once led the nonpartisan CBO. 

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New IRS regs put some partnership transactions under spotlight

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Final regulations now identify certain partnership related-party “basis shifting” transactions as “transactions of interest” subject to the rules for reportable transactions.

The final regs apply to related partners and partnerships that participated in the identified transactions through distributions of partnership property or the transfer of an interest in the partnership by a related partner to a related transferee. Affected taxpayers and their material advisors are subject to the disclosure requirements for reportable transactions. 

During the proposal process, the Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service received comments that the final regulations should avoid unnecessary burdens for small, family-run businesses, limit retroactive reporting, provide more time for reporting and differentiate publicly traded partnerships, among other suggested changes now reflected in the regs.

  • Increased dollar threshold for basis increase in a TOI. The threshold amount for a basis increase in a TOI has been increased from $5 million to $25 million for tax years before 2025 and $10 million for tax years after. 
  • Limited retroactive reporting for open tax years. Reporting has been limited for open tax years to those that fall within a six-year lookback window. The six-year lookback is the 72-month period before the first month of a taxpayer’s most recent tax year that began before the publication of the final regulations (slated for Jan. 14 in the Federal Register). Also, the threshold amount for a basis increase in a TOI during the six-year lookback is $25 million. 
  • Additional time for reporting. Taxpayers have an additional 90 days from the final regulation’s publication to file disclosure statements for TOIs in open tax years for which a return has already been filed and that fall within the six-year lookback. Material advisors have an additional 90 days to file their disclosure statements for tax statements made before the final regulations. 
  • Publicly traded partnerships. Because PTPs are typically owned by a large number of unrelated owners, the final regulations exclude many owners of PTPs from the disclosure rules. 

The identified transactions generally result from either a tax-free distribution of partnership property to a partner that is related to one or more partners of the partnership, or the tax-free transfer of a partnership interest by a related partner to a related transferee.

IRS headquarters

Bloomberg via Getty Images

The tax-free distribution or transfer generates an increase to the basis of the distributed property or partnership property of $10 million or more ($25 million or more in the case of a TOI undertaken in a tax year before 2025) under the rules of IRC Sections 732(b) or (d), 734(b) or 743(b), but for which no corresponding tax is paid. 

The basis increase to the distributed or partnership property allows the related parties to decrease taxable income through increased cost recovery allowances or decrease taxable gain (or increase taxable loss) on the disposition of the property.

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Treasury, IRS propose rules on commercial clean vehicles, issue guidance on clean fuels

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The Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service proposed new rules for the tax credit for qualified commercial clean vehicles, along with guidance on claiming tax credits for clean fuel under the Inflation Reduction Act.

The Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on the credit for qualified commercial clean vehicles (under Section 45W of the Tax Code) says the credit can be claimed by purchasing and placing in service qualified commercial clean vehicles, including certain battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid EVs, fuel cell electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid fuel cell electric vehicles.  

The credit is the lesser amount of either 30% of the vehicle’s basis (15% for plug-in hybrid EVs) or the vehicle’s incremental cost in excess of a vehicle comparable in size or use powered solely by gasoline or diesel. A credit up to $7,500 can be claimed for a single qualified commercial clean vehicle for cars and light-duty trucks (with a Gross Vehicle Weight Rating of less than 14,000 pounds), or otherwise $40,000 for vehicles like electric buses and semi-trucks (with a GVWR equal to or greater than 14,000 pounds).

“The release of Treasury’s proposed rules for the commercial clean vehicle credit marks an important step forward in the Biden-Harris Administration’s work to lower transportation costs and strengthen U.S. energy security,” said U.S. Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo in a statement Friday. “Today’s guidance will provide the clarity and certainty needed to grow investment in clean vehicle manufacturing.”

The NPRM issued today proposes rules to implement the 45W credit, including proposing various pathways for taxpayers to determine the incremental cost of a qualifying commercial clean vehicle for purposes of calculating the amount of 45W credit. For example, the NPRM proposes that taxpayers can continue to use the incremental cost safe harbors such as those set out in Notice 2023-9 and Notice 2024-5, may rely on a manufacturer’s written cost determination to determine the incremental cost of a qualifying commercial clean vehicle, or may calculate the incremental cost of a qualifying clean vehicle versus an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle based on the differing costs of the vehicle powertrains.

The NPRM also proposes rules regarding the types of vehicles that qualify for the credit and aligns certain definitional concepts with those applicable to the 30D and 25E credits. In addition, the NPRM proposes that vehicles are only eligible if they are used 100% for trade or business, excepting de minimis personal use, and that the 45W credit is disallowed for qualified commercial clean vehicles that were previously allowed a clean vehicle credit under 30D or 45W. 

The notice asks for comments over the next 60 days on the proposed regulations such as issues related to off-road mobile machinery, including approaches that might be adopted in applying the definition of mobile machinery to off-road vehicles and whether to create a product identification number system for such machinery in order to comply with statutory requirements. A public hearing is scheduled for April 28, 2025.

Clean Fuels Production Credit

The Treasury the IRS also released guidance Friday on the Clean Fuels Production Credit under Section 45Z of the Tax Code.

Section 45Z provides a tax credit for the production of transportation fuels with lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions below certain levels. The credit is in effect in 2025 and is for sustainable aviation fuel and non-SAF transportation fuels.

The guidance includes both a notice of intent to propose regulations on the Section 45Z credit and a notice providing the annual emissions rate table for Section 45Z, which refers taxpayers to the appropriate methodologies for determining the lifecycle GHG emissions of their fuel. In conjunction with the guidance released Friday, the Department of Energy plans to release the 45ZCF-GREET model for use in determining emissions rates for 45Z in the coming days.

“This guidance will help put America on the cutting-edge of future innovation in aviation and renewable fuel while also lowering transportation costs for consumers,” said Adeyemo in a statement. “Decarbonizing transportation and lowering costs is a win-win for America.”

Section 45Z provides a per-gallon (or gallon-equivalent) tax credit for producers of clean transportation fuels based on the carbon intensity of production. It consolidates and replaces pre-Inflation Reduction Act credits for biodiesel, renewable diesel, and alternative fuels, and an IRA credit for sustainable aviation fuel. Like several other IRA credits, Section 45Z requires the Treasury to establish rules for measuring carbon intensity of production, based on the Clean Air Act’s definition of “lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions.”

The guidance offers more clarity on various issues, including which entities and fuels are eligible for the credit, and how taxpayers determine lifecycle emissions. Specifically, the guidance outlines the Treasury and the IRS’s intent to define key concepts and provide certain rules in a future rulemaking, including clarifying who is eligible for a credit.

The Treasury and the IRS intend to provide that the producer of the eligible clean fuel is eligible to claim the 45Z credit. In keeping with the statute, compressors and blenders of fuel would not be eligible.

Under Section 45Z, a fuel must be “suitable for use” as a transportation fuel. The Treasury and the IRS intend to propose that 45Z-creditable transportation fuel must itself (or when blended into a fuel mixture) have either practical or commercial fitness for use as a fuel in a highway vehicle or aircraft. The guidance clarifies that marine fuels that are otherwise suitable for use in highway vehicles or aircraft, such as marine diesel and methanol, are also 45Z eligible.

Specifically, this would mean that neat SAF that is blended into a fuel mixture that has practical or commercial fitness for use as a fuel would be creditable. Additionally, natural gas alternatives such as renewable natural gas would be suitable for use if produced in a manner such that if it were further compressed it could be used as a transportation fuel.

Today’s guidance publishes the annual emissions rate table that directs taxpayers to the appropriate methodologies for calculating carbon intensities for types and categories of 45Z-eligible fuels.

The table directs taxpayers to use the 45ZCF-GREET model to determine the emissions rate of non-SAF transportation fuel, and either the 45ZCF-GREET model or methodologies from the International Civil Aviation Organization (“CORSIA Default” or “CORSIA Actual”) for SAF.

Taxpayers can use the Provisional Emissions Rate process to obtain an emissions rate for fuel pathway and feedstock combinations not specified in the emissions rate table when guidance is published for the PER process. Guidance for the PER process is expected at a later date.

Outlining climate smart agriculture practices

The guidance released Friday states that the Treasury intends to propose rules for incorporating the emissions benefits from climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices for cultivating domestic corn, soybeans, and sorghum as feedstocks for SAF and non-SAF transportation fuels. These options would be available to taxpayers after Treasury and the IRS propose regulations for the section 45Z credit, including rules for CSA, and the 45ZCF-GREET model is updated to enable calculation of the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions rates for CSA crops, taking into account one or more CSA practices.    

CSA practices have multiple benefits, including lower overall GHG emissions associated with biofuels production and increased adoption of farming practices that are associated with other environmental benefits, such as improved water quality and soil health. Agencies across the Federal government have taken important steps to advance the adoption of CSA. In April, Treasury established a first-of-its-kind pilot program to encourage CSA practices within guidance on the section 40B SAF tax credit. Treasury has received and continues to consider substantial feedback from stakeholders on that pilot program. The U.S. Department of Agriculture invested more than $3 billion in 135 Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities projects. Combined with the historic investment of $19.5 billion in CSA from the Inflation Reduction Act, the department is estimated to support CSA implementation on over 225 million acres in the next 5 years as well as measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification to better understand the climate impacts of these practices.

In addition, in June, the U.S. Department of Agriculture published a Request for Information requesting public input on procedures for reporting and verification of CSA practices and measurement of related emissions benefits, and received substantial input from a wide array of stakeholders. The USDA is currently developing voluntary technical guidelines for CSA reporting and verification. The Treasury and the IRS expect to consider those guidelines in proposing rules recognizing the benefits of CSA for purposes of the Section 45Z credit.

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IRS and Treasury propose regs on 401(k) and 403(b) automatic enrollment, Roth IRA catchup contributions

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The Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service issued proposed regulations Friday for several provisions of the SECURE 2.0 Act, including ones related to automatic enrollment in 401(k) and 403(b) plans, and the Roth IRA catchup rule.

SECURE 2.0 Act passed at the end of 2022 and contained an extensive list of provisions related to retirement planning, like the original SECURE Act of 2019, with some being phased in over five years.

One set of proposed regulations involves provisions requiring newly-created 401(k) and 403(b) plans to automatically enroll eligible employees starting with the 2025 plan year. In general, unless an employee opts out, a plan needs to automatically enroll the employee at an initial contribution rate of at least 3% of the employee’s pay and automatically increase the initial contribution rate by one percentage point each year until it reaches at least 10% of pay. The requirement generally applies to 401(k) and 403(b) plans established after Dec. 29, 2022, the date the SECURE 2.0 Act became law, with exceptions for new and small businesses, church plans and governmental plans.

The proposed regulations include guidance to plan administrators for properly implementing this requirement and are proposed to apply to plan years that start more than six months after the date that final regulations are issued. Before the final regulations are applicable, plan administrators need to apply a reasonable, good faith interpretation of the statute.

Roth IRA catchup contributions

The Treasury and the IRS also issued proposed regulations Friday addressing several SECURE 2.0 Act provisions involving catch-up contributions, which are additional contributions under a 401(k) or similar workplace retirement plan that generally are allowed with respect to employees who are age 50 or older.

That includes proposed rules related to a provision requiring that catch-up contributions made by certain higher-income participants be designated as after-tax Roth contributions.

The proposed regulations provide guidance for plan administrators to implement and comply with the new Roth catch-up rule and reflect comments received in response to Notice 2023-62, issued in August 2023. 

The proposed regulations also provide guidance relating to the increased catch-up contribution limit under the SECURE 2.0 Act for certain retirement plan participants. Affected participants include employees between the ages of 60-63 and employees in newly established SIMPLE plans.

The IRS and the Treasury are asking for comments on both sets of proposed regulations. 

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