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Trump tax cuts would cost more than almost all federal agencies

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Republican nominee Donald Trump and running mate JD Vance are campaigning on a grab bag of tax cut proposals that could collectively cost as much as $10.5 trillion over a decade, a massive sum that would exceed the combined budgets of every domestic federal agency.

Even if Congress were to eliminate every dollar of non-defense discretionary spending — projected to be $9.8 trillion over the next 10 years — it still wouldn’t offset the estimated expense of the wide-ranging tax cuts Trump and Vance have floated in recent weeks.

The price tag is based on rough, initial estimates from tax and budget specialists because the Trump campaign hasn’t released detailed policy plans for its tax promises.

Former President Donald Trump, right, and Senator JD Vance
Former President Donald Trump, right, and Senator JD Vance

Emily Elconin/Bloomberg

The Trump campaign said in a statement the former president will cut wasteful spending and increase energy production to pay for the tax cuts and lower the national debt. The campaign didn’t offer more detail.

Though Democrat Kamala Harris also has proposed a few large tax cuts — she would exempt tips from taxation and expand the child tax credit — the impact on the nation’s finances pales in comparison. She calls for offsetting the lost income, which one think tank estimates at $2 trillion, with tax increases on corporations and wealthy individuals. 

The sheer magnitude of the Trump campaign’s tax promises make it highly unlikely they all would pass even in a Congress controlled by Trump allies. The Republican ticket’s tax proposals include extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, a big expansion to the child tax credit and exemptions for tips and Social Security payments.

“Congress is not going to pass a $10 trillion deficit-financed tax cut,” said Kyle Pomerleau, a senior fellow with the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute.

Republicans have long argued that tax cuts boost growth. But it’s not clear how much Trump’s proposals, which largely cut levies for individuals rather than businesses, would spur new economic activity.

The combined cost of the Trump plans is so big that if Congress were to try to pass the tax cut proposals and keep spending flat, it means they could continue to fund the military, federal benefit programs, like Social Security, pay interest on the debt — and nothing else. That means eliminating major federal agencies that handle duties such as law enforcement, border security, air traffic control, tax collection and international relations.

Harris and President Joe Biden released a detailed budget proposal this year to cut federal deficits $3 trillion over a decade, by raising taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals and other measures. Those plans mirror some of the offsets Harris has proposed but previously have run into powerful opposition from major business lobbies.

Without those compensating tax increases, the Harris proposals could increase the deficit by as much as $2 trillion over the next decade, according to the University of Pennsylvania Penn Wharton Budget Model. 

Trump’s supporters are accustomed to his impromptu, broad-stroke policy pronouncements, while key Democratic constituency groups demand detailed policy proposals and a firm plan offsetting the cost.

Harris is continuing to roll out policy ideas piecemeal. On Tuesday, she called for an expanded deduction for start-up businesses and her campaign has signaled that more policy plans could be released in the coming weeks.

Tax agenda

For both candidates, much will hinge on how well their party does in congressional elections, said Wendy Edelberg, a former Federal Reserve and Congressional Budget Office economist who’s now director of the Brookings Institution’s Hamilton Project.

The outlook “depends on a million different factors, particularly the balance of power in Congress,” Edelberg said. “Perhaps no policy will get enacted as specifically proposed by either candidate.”

Taxes will be a top agenda item in Congress next year, regardless of who wins the White House or which party controls the House and Senate. Major portions of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts — including lower individual rates and deduction for small businesses — expire at the end of 2025, which will force Congress to address the tax code next year.

Trump has made extending his signature tax law the centerpiece of his agenda. The Congressional Budget Office says that would cost $4.6 trillion over ten years. He’s also floated lowering the corporate rate to 15% from 21%, adding another $874 billion to the total, according to a budget model by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. 

On the campaign trail, the Republican ticket has verbally floated more tax ideas with hefty price tags: excluding Social Security payments from taxes ($1.8 trillion), exempting taxes on tipped wages ($250 billion) and increasing the $2,000 child tax credit per child to $5,000 ($3 trillion). 

Added all up, that’s $10.5 trillion. If Congress were to seriously consider these ideas, official federal scorekeepers would model out the effects, including how the tax cuts interact with one another.

Revenue raisers

Trump has offered very few options to raise more federal revenue. He’s vowed to block any cuts to Medicare and Social Security benefits and has called for an increase in military spending. He’s proposed universal tariffs ranging from 10-20%, which on the lowest end of the spectrum could bring in $2.8 trillion over ten years, according to the left-leaning Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

That has the potential to cover some of the cost of his tax cuts, but doesn’t take into account what economists warn are large negative economic growth effects or the cost of compensating farmers for trade retaliation from other countries. 

The rising national debt is already stoking concern among investors and ratings agencies. 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has warned that higher government budget deficits are on an unsustainable path.  In November, Moody’s Investors Service signaled it could downgrade the U.S. from the highest investment grade, Aaa.

CBO projects federal debt held by the public will exceed 100% of the GDP next year and rise to 122% in ten years without any new tax cuts.

“The fiscally responsible thing for either candidate to do, if they are proposing tax cuts, is to tell us how they are going to pay for them,” said Keith Hall of George Mason University, who once led the nonpartisan CBO. 

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Accounting

In the blogs: Higher questions

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Valuations this year; handling interviewees; AI and accounting ed.; and other highlights from our favorite tax bloggers.

Higher questions

Haunting of the Hill House

  • Eide Bailly (https://www.eidebailly.com/taxblog): The House Ways and Means Committee planned to begin to publicly debate and amend tax legislation on May 13, with the ultimate goal to produce the “one big, beautiful” bill to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: “This is the stage where seemingly dead and buried ideas mysteriously come back to life to haunt the proceedings.” 
  • Wiss (https://wiss.com/insights/read/): Key highlights of the proposed beauty.
  • Current Federal Tax Developments (https://www.currentfederaltaxdevelopments.com/): And a bulleted summary.
  • Tax Vox (https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox): If Congress expands the Child Tax Credit with TCJA extension, who might benefit and what might it cost?
  • Tax Foundation (www.taxfoundation.org/blog): Policymakers will also decide the fate of the SALT cap. Debate rages about making the cap more generous, along with possible limits on pass-through workarounds and SALT deductions  by corporations. While capping business SALT could raise additional revenue, it would risk slowing economic growth.

Soft skills

Rational decisions

Tidying up

  • Boyum & Barenscheer (https://www.myboyum.com/blog/): Should you vacuum the meeting room? How many times should you talk with a candidate? Keys — some often overlooked — to effective interviewing.
  • The National Association of Tax Professionals (https://blog.natptax.com/): A WISP is the written information security plan that verifies how your firm protects taxpayer information. You can’t ignore them anymore, and here’s how to build a compliant one.
  • Taxing Subjects (https://www.drakesoftware.com/blog): An outstanding guide to SEO for accounting firms. 
  • AICPA & CIMA Insights (https://www.aicpa-cima.com/blog): Where does AI fit into accounting education? Everywhere.

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Accounting

House committee marks up tax reconciliation bill

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The House Ways and Means Committee held a hearing Tuesday to mark up the so-called “one, big beautiful bill” extending the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act while adding other tax breaks for tip income, overtime pay and Social Security income and eliminating tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act for renewable energy as well as the Direct File and Free File programs.

“Today, this Committee will move forward on President Trump’s promise of delivering historic tax relief to working families, farmers and small businesses,” said committee chair Jason Smith, R-Missouri, in his opening statement. “The One Big Beautiful Bill is the key to making America great again. This moment has been years in the making. While Democrats were defending IRS audits on the middle class and tax carveouts for the wealthy, Republicans on this Committee got on the road, to hear from real Americans about how the 2017 tax cuts benefited them. This bill wasn’t drafted by special interests or K Street lobbyists. It was drafted by the American people in communities across the country.”

Democrats blasted the bill. “In 2017, Republicans passed a tax law that was supposed to pay for itself, raise wages, and help working families,” said ranking member Richard Neal, D-Massachusetts. “None of that happened. Instead, it exploded the deficit, worsened inequality, and left everyday Americans behind. Now they want to double down on the same failed playbook. One that rigs the system for billionaires and big corporations while everyone else pays the price.”

Among the provisions, the bill would make the expiring rate and bracket changes of the TCJA permanent and increase the inflation adjustment for all brackets excluding the 37% threshold, according to a summary from the Tax Foundation. The bill would also make the expiring standard deduction levels permanent and temporarily increase the standard deduction by $2,000 for joint filers, $1,500 for head of household filers and $1,000 for all other filers from 2025 through the end of 2028. It would also make the personal exemption elimination permanent, and make the $750,000 limitation and the exclusion of interest on home equity loans for the home mortgage interest deduction permanent. It would also make the state and local tax deduction cap, also known as the SALT cap, permanent at a higher threshold of $30,000, phasing down to $10,000 at a rate of 20% starting at modified adjusted gross income of $200,000 for single filers and $400,000 for joint filers.

Other changes and limitations to itemized deductions would be made permanent, including the limitation on personal casualty losses and wagering losses and termination of miscellaneous itemized deductions, Pease limitation on itemized deductions, and certain moving expenses.

The bill is likely to go through some changes when it goes to the Senate. “Politically, we’ve been talking about the process for the last couple months,” said Mark Baran, managing director at CBIZ’s national tax office. “Congress is finally able to pass a concurrent resolution to unlock the budget reconciliation process.”

“The House and the Senate have completely different instructions on what they’re going to cut and how they’re going to score,” he added. “Some of that’s very controversial, and that needs to be worked out. But now we’re getting into the actual crafting of provisions and legislation.”

According to a summary on the CBIZ site, the bill would make permanent and increase the Section 199A pass-through entity deduction from 20% to 23%, also known as the qualified business income, or QBI, deduction. The bill includes provisions that open the door for pass-through entity owners in specified service industries to use the deduction. It would also extend current deductions for research and experimental expenses through Dec. 31, 2029, and extend 100% bonus depreciation through that same date.

The bill would also allow businesses to include amortization and depreciation when figuring the business interest limitation through Dec. 31, 2029, while making permanent the excess business loss limitation.

In addition, the bill would retroactively terminate the Employee Retention Tax Credit for taxpayers who filed refund claims after Jan. 31, 2024. 

In keeping with Trump campaign promises, the bill would eliminate taxes on tips for employees in certain defined industries where tipping has been a traditional form of compensation. There would be a new $4,000 deduction for seniors that phases out starting at $75,000 of income. The bill would also eliminate taxes on overtime pay.

The bill would give individuals an above-the-line deduction for interest on loans used to purchase American-made cars, but that would be capped at $10,000 with income phaseouts starting at $100,000 (single) and $200,000 (married filing jointly).

The bill would also increase taxes on certain private college investment income up to a maximum of 21% on universities with a student-adjusted endowment above $2 million.

It would also roll back some of the renewable energy provisions from the Inflation Reduction, including a phaseout and restrictions on clean energy facilities starting in 2029, while also limiting or eliminating clean housing energy and vehicle credits. The bill would sunset major IRA clean electricity tax credits, including the clean electricity production tax credit (45Y), clean electricity investment tax credit (48E), and nuclear electricity production tax credit (45U) begin phasing out after 2028 and finish phasing out by the end of 2031; repeal hydrogen production credit (45V) for facilities beginning construction after 2025, according to the Tax Foundation. It would also phase out advanced manufacturing production credit (45X) for wind energy components after 2027, for all other eligible components after 2031. Across several IRA clean energy credits, the bill would repeal transferability after the end of 2027 and further limit credits based on involvement of foreign entities of concern. On the other hand, it would expand the clean fuel production credit (45K), and tighten rules on the 126(m) limitation for executive compensation.

The bill would terminate the current Direct File program at the Internal Revenue Service and establish a public-private partnership between the IRS and private sector tax preparation services to offer free tax filing, replacing both the existing Direct File and Free File programs.  

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Accounting

FASAB mulls accounting impact of federal reorganization

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The Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board is asking for input on emerging accounting issues and questions related to reporting entity reorganizations and abolishments as the federal government endures wide-ranging layoffs and reductions in force, including the elimination of entire agencies by the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency.

“Federal agencies and their functions, from time to time, have been reorganized and abolished,” said FASAB in its request for information and comment

Reorganization refers to a transfer, consolidation, coordination, authorization or abolition of one (or more) agency or agencies or a part of their functions. Abolition is a type of reorganization and refers to the whole or part of an agency that does not have, upon the effective date of the reorganization, any functions.

The Trump administration has recently moved to all but eliminate parts of the federal government such as the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and earlier this month, Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee passed a bill that would transfer the responsibilities of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board to the Securities and Exchange Commission. 

FASAB issues federal financial accounting standards and provides timely guidance. Practitioner responses to the request for information will support its efforts to identify, research and respond to emerging accounting and reporting issues related to reorganization and abolishment activities, such as transfers of assets and liabilities among federal reporting entities. The input will be used to help inform any potential staff recommendations and alternatives for FASAB to consider regarding short- and long-term actions and updates to federal accounting standards and guidance in this area.

The questions include:

  1. Have any recent or ongoing reorganization activities or events affected the scope of functions, assets, liabilities, net position, revenues, and expenses assigned to your reporting entity (or, for auditors, your auditees)? If so, please describe.
  2. What accounting issues have you (or your auditees) encountered (or do you anticipate) in connection with recent or potential reorganization activities and events?
  3. Please describe the sources of standards and guidance that you (or your auditees) are applying to recent, ongoing, or pending reorganization activities and events.
  4. Have you experienced any difficulties or identified gaps in the accounting and disclosure standards for reorganization activities and events? What potential improvements would you recommend, if any?

FASAB is asking for responses by July 15, 2025, but acknowledged that late or follow-up submissions may be necessary given the provisional nature of the request. Responses should be emailed to [email protected] with “RERA RFI response” on the subject line.

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