Connect with us

Economics

Turkey opts for new tightening strategy after signaling pause to hikes

Published

on

A picture taken on August 14, 2018 shows the logo of Turkey’s Central Bank at the entrance of its headquarters in Ankara, Turkey.

ADEM ALTAN | AFP | Getty Images

Turkey’s central bank is opting for a different monetary tightening method as it grapples with climbing inflation, after previously signaling that its rate-hiking cycle was over.

The institution sent a directive to lenders, effective Friday, instructing them to put parts of their required lira reserves into blocked accounts.

That’s pushed loan rates up higher and cut the sizes of some banks’ loan limits, with some lenders shrinking their commercial loan limits to 100,000 lira, or $3,100, Reuters reported Thursday.

“Some banks have stopped lending. Some banks even recall their already granted loans. This is going to cause further liquidity squeeze,” Arda Tunca, an Istanbul-based economist at PolitikYol, told CNBC. 

“If a central bank is willing to reduce the rate of inflation, liquidity conditions should be squeezed for sure, but the methodology is of utmost importance,” he said. “If the methodology is wrong, market expectations can’t be managed.”

Indeed, Turkish bank stocks dipped after the news Thursday. Economic data platform Emerging Market Watch posted on X, describing the central bank as taking “another tightening step via reserve requirements.”

Analysts at London-based firm Capital Economics made similar observations.

“In the past month, new quantitative and credit tightening tools have been announced,” the firm wrote in a research note. “Last week the CBRT tightened restrictions on lira loan growth, a move that would likely have a similar impact to an interest rate hike.” 

Meanwhile, Turkey in January recorded its first monthly drop in reserves since May 2023, according to balance of payments data released this week.

Turkish annual consumer price inflation soared to 67.07% in February. The strong figures have fueled concerns that Turkey’s central bank, which had indicated last month that its painful eight-month-long rate-hiking cycle was over, may have to return to tightening.

“Pressures on Turkish policymakers are building ahead of the local elections on 31st March as capital inflows have slowed and FX reserves are falling again,” Capital Economics wrote. “We doubt the central bank will hike interest rates next week, but we’re growing more convinced that at least one further hike will be delivered in Q2.”

— CNBC’s Dan Murphy contributed to this report.

Economics

What would Robert F. Kennedy junior mean for American health?

Published

on

AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

Continue Reading

Economics

What would Robert Kennedy junior mean for American health?

Published

on

AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

Continue Reading

Economics

UK economy ekes out 0.1% growth, below expectations

Published

on

Bank of England in the City of London on 6th November 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images)

Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images

The U.K. economy expanded by 0.1% in the third quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.

That was below the expectations of economists polled by Reuters who forecast 0.2% gross domestic product growth on the previous three months of the year.

It comes after inflation in the U.K. fell sharply to 1.7% in September, dipping below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since April 2021. The fall in inflation helped pave the way for the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, bringing its key rate to 4.75%.

The Bank of England said last week it expects the Labour Government’s tax-raising budget to boost GDP by 0.75 percentage points in a year’s time. Policymakers also noted that the government’s fiscal plan had led to an increase in their inflation forecasts.

The outcome of the recent U.S. election has fostered much uncertainty about the global economic impact of another term from President-elect Donald Trump. While Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to be widely inflationary and hit the European economy hard, some analysts have said such measures could provide opportunities for the British economy.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave little away last week on the bank’s views of Trump’s tariff agenda, but he did reference risks around global fragmentation.

“Let’s wait and see where things get to. I’m not going to prejudge what might happen, what might not happen,” he told reporters during a press briefing.

This is a breaking news story. Please refresh for updates.

Continue Reading

Trending