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U.S. wage growth is cooling — but it’s still hot in these jobs

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Wage growth has cooled from its scorching pandemic-era pace. But there are still pockets of heat.

Workers are getting relatively big annual raises in occupational sectors like legal, dental, child care, cleaning and sanitation, and medical information, for example, according to a new analysis by job site Indeed.

Nationally, wages grew at 3.1% a year in March, well below the recent 9.3% peak in January 2022, according to Indeed, which tracks average pay advertised in its online job listings.

However, there’s “massive variation across industries,” according to Julia Pollak, chief economist at career site ZipRecruiter.

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At a high level, wage growth in 2024 is above average in 47% of job sectors compared with 2019, the year before the pandemic hit, according to the Indeed analysis.

Among them, it’s highest in the legal profession: Indeed found that average workers saw their paychecks grow at a 5.7% pace in March 2024 versus a year earlier. That’s down just 0.1 percentage points from six months ago.

The analysis found that the dental and child care sectors ranked just behind, each at 4.8% annual growth; medical information and cleaning and sanitation jobs placed just behind, both at 3.9%, according to the analysis.

By comparison, software developers have seen the lowest annual growth since March 2023, at 0.4%, according to data provided to CNBC by Indeed. That’s down from a recent 9% peak in April 2022.

Strong wage growth doesn’t necessarily translate to a high salary, though.

“I don’t think someone will leave their software development job to work in child care because wage growth is higher,” said Allison Shrivastava, a labor economist and author of the Indeed report. “But if you were working in [similar-paying jobs like] retail or food prep and you wanted higher wages, that might be worth looking at,” she said.

The average child care worker earns $15.42 an hour and $32,070 a year, according to data for May 2023 compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. By comparison, software developers make $66.40 an hour and $138,110 annually on average, according to BLS data. Dentists make $96.57 an hour and $200,870 a year, on average, BLS data says.

Wage growth surged in 2021 and into 2022 as employers had to “roll out the red carpet” for workers at a time when labor was scarce and workers were “demanding to be made whole for inflation,” Pollak said.

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She said it also “peaked at different times for different industries” during the Covid-19 pandemic due to a “complex web” of factors like labor supply and demand.

Some roles, such as face-to-face jobs in food services, became less attractive overnight after the pandemic led to a big shift in remote work. Turnover rose quickly among in-person occupations compared with turnover across remote ones, Pollak said.

For example, workers in accommodation and food services saw annual earnings growth peak at 16.1% in December 2021, according to ZipRecruiter data. By comparison, it found that those in the information sector saw growth peak at 7.8% in September 2022.

Current national wage growth is in line with the 2019 pre-pandemic average, indicating a labor market that is widely viewed as healthy.

While the average worker enjoyed historically rapid wage growth in the recent past, their pay wasn’t keeping pace with inflation. As inflation has fallen, buying power has risen again on average.

Shrivastava of Indeed said the job market “has cooled down from a really, really feverish pace.” However, she said, it has cooled to a place that “seems more sustainable” for workers and businesses.

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Student loan transfer led to credit reporting errors: Lawmakers

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Chair Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., conducts the Senate Finance Subcommittee on Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth hearing titled Promoting Competition, Growth, and Privacy Protection in the Technology Sector, in Dirksen Building on Tuesday, December 7, 2021.

Tom Williams | CQ-Roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

A “faulty” transfer of student loan accounts from NelNet to Mohela in 2023 led to “millions of consumer credit reporting errors,” lawmakers say in a new letter to government agencies reviewed by CNBC.

The change in loan servicers caused nearly 2 million duplicate student loan records to appear on borrowers’ credit reports, while hundreds of thousands of borrowers’ credit scores were reported incorrectly for up to a year and a half, according to the letter. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, and other lawmakers sent the letter on Wednesday evening to Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra and U.S. Department of Education Secretary Miguel Cardona.

As part of their investigation, the lawmakers sent inquiries to NelNet, Mohela and three credit reporting companies: Equifax, Experian and Transunion. They asked the companies about what had gone wrong and how many borrowers were impacted.

In their letter, the lawmakers urged the government agencies to investigate the problems.

“We respectfully request that the CFPB and ED use their supervisory and enforcement authority to ensure that the appropriate parties are held accountable for these errors,” the lawmakers wrote.

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Mohela appears to have failed to inform the credit reporting companies of each loan transfer from NelNet, the lawmakers said they found in their investigation. As a result, many borrowers had their single loan balance reported twice, once by each servicer.

Duplicate student loan balances on a borrowers’ credit report can reduce their credit scores and make it more difficult for them to obtain mortgages, car loans and other credit, the lawmakers note in the letter.

Mohela and Nelnet did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The credit reporting companies identified “over 100,000 cases” in which the reporting errors led borrowers to have an incorrect credit score, according to the lawmakers’ investigation. Thousands of borrowers had their credit scores drop by more than 20 points, they said.

They added that borrowers submitted around 7,500 complaints and disputes to Mohela and the credit reporting companies in attempts to fix the errors.

The credit reporting companies told the lawmakers the duplicate balances “have been resolved now,” the letter said.

An Equifax spokesperson said they were aware that some student loan servicers “did not report loans in adherence to the consumer reporting guidelines.”

“We are working with the Department of Education and the servicers to correct misreported accounts and ensure that student loans are being appropriately reflected on consumer credit reports,” the spokesperson said. 

Experian and TransUnion did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

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CFPB takes aim at credit card issuers over ‘bait-and-switch’ rewards

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The secret to credit card rewards

CFPB cracks down on rewards tactics

About 90% of all credit card spending is on rewards cards. But according to the CFPB, an increasing number of consumers have reported that some rewards are hard to redeem or are not worth as much as they thought. In 2023 alone, complaints involving credit card rewards jumped 70% over pre-pandemic levels. 

“Large credit card issuers too often play a shell game to lure people into high-cost cards, boosting their own profits while denying consumers the rewards they’ve earned,” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a statement. “When credit card issuers promise cashback bonuses or free round-trip airfares, they should actually deliver them.”

According to the Consumer Bankers Association, only a small share of credit card users report problems with rewards: Complaints regarding rewards made up just 2% of all credit card complaints reported to the CFPB since January 2020. 

“The only bait-and-switch that’s happening here is from the CFPB once again misrepresenting its own data,” CBA President and CEO Lindsey Johnson said in a statement.

“As the CFPB’s own research shows, credit cards are — by far — the best tool for the one-fifth of Americans that lack access to credit to begin building their financial lives,” Johnson said.

Consumer complaints about credit card rewards are exceedingly rare, the American Bankers Association also noted.

“Despite widespread evidence that credit card rewards programs are highly popular and deliver tremendous value to tens of millions of U.S. cardholders from all walks of life, Director Chopra has once again chosen not to let facts get in the way of his decision to tarnish a hugely popular consumer product,” Rob Nichols, the ABA’s president and CEO, said in a statement.

Consumers like reward cards

Even with credit card interest rates near an all-time high, when deciding on a new credit card, 83% of cardholders said their final decision comes down to perks, according to a separate report by CardRates.com.

The majority, or 58%, of credit card users polled by CardRates said they preferred cash back over miles or points. But still, not all cardholders used the credit card rewards available to them.

Travel rewards can be more lucrative but are notoriously harder to redeem, Bankrate also found. Only 11% of rewards cardholders redeemed for a free hotel stay, while just 10% redeemed for a free flight, according to Bankrate.

“Failing to redeem your rewards is a major missed opportunity,” said Bankrate’s senior industry analyst Ted Rossman. “While the best rewards can be subjective, the worst reward is getting nothing at all.”

How to make the most of rewards

In the best-case scenario, credit card rewards are “almost like free money,” said Bill Hardekopf, a credit card expert and CEO of BillSaver.com.

But that’s only if you pay your credit card off on time and in full every month. With credit card rates over 20%, on average, the benefits of cash back or other perks are quickly eroded if you carry a balance.

“If you miss a payment or are late on a payment, you get socked with a huge penalty — that interest rate will far outweigh the rewards you are going to get,” Hardekopf said.

When it comes to which reward card to choose, Hardekopf recommends a cash-back card with a low, or no, annual fee. “The best reward you can get is cash back because cash talks — it’s easy to understand and there’s no problem redeeming.”

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Some shoppers prefer retail credit cards over buy now, pay later plans

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High interest rates aren’t deterring many shoppers from store credit cards.

When asked to choose between a store card or a buy now, pay later plan, 58% of surveyed shoppers prefer store cards, according to a new report by LendingTree. The remaining 42% picked BNPL loans.

The site polled 2,040 U.S. adults in September.

That choice “speaks to the fact people may be looking for a little bit longer-term help with their financial situation,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.

In December, new cards offered by the top 100 retailers had an average annual percentage rate of 32.66%, up from 27.7% in 2022, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Many short-term BNPLs do not charge interest, but longer-term loans do, and on the higher end, those rates can be comparable to a store card.

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Younger shoppers have been early adopters of BNPL, and that shows in their payment preferences. 

About 59% of Gen Zers and 51% of millennials prefer BNPL over retail store credit cards, Lending Tree found. To compare, 38% of Gen Xers and 22% of baby boomers prefer BNPL.

“Buy now, pay later really started off as a millennial, Gen Z phenomenon,” Schulz said. “Younger Americans really drove a lot of the growth.” 

Whichever payment option you plan to use to finance holiday purchases this year, keep in mind the cost of carrying the debt, experts say.

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A retail credit card can affect your credit history, as the account is reported to the three major credit bureaus: Equifax, Experian and TransUnion.

BNPL has been somewhat “invisible” to credit bureaus in the past, meaning the loan did not show up on users’ credit reports. But AfterPay, Affirm and Klarna are among the providers reporting some BNPL loans to the credit bureaus.

Both payment forms can be attractive for shoppers. Retail store credit cards tend to be easier to qualify for compared to other credit cards, especially as banks have been tightening credit card approval requirements in recent months, Schulz said. 

Over the third quarter of 2024, some banks have tightened their lending standards for credit card loans, lowered their credit limits and increased minimum credit score requirements, according to the Federal Reserve.

“It’s a reaction from the banks to rising delinquencies, rising debt and overall economic uncertainty,” Schulz said.

BNPL can also be relatively easy to apply for and qualify.

“The rise of buy now, pay later is the biggest reason why Americans are opening fewer store cards,” according to Ted Rossman, an industry analyst at Bankrate.

‘Consider the total cost of ownership’

The holiday season is here, a busy time to buy gifts for family and friends. If you find yourself in a situation where a retail store credit card or a BNPL can help stretch your budget, consider the “total cost of ownership,” Rossman said.

“Both of these payment methods can be advantageous depending on how you use them, but could also be a pretty slippery slope into debt and overspending,” he said.

BNPL can be tricky because you can have multiple loans running at the same time, and the costs “can add up,” Rossman said. Make sure to keep track of the pay-later loans you have and are able to withstand the automatic deductions.

If you can’t pay a retail card purchase off at the end of the statement period, any discount, reward or perk that you may get is going to be washed over by the interest you’ll owe on top of the outstanding balance, Schulz said. 

“Paying 30% interest to save 15 or 20% doesn’t make a whole lot of sense financially,” Schulz said.

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