Connect with us

Economics

UK economic growth, January 2024

Published

on

UK GDP growth in January 'not a hugely positive picture' but it's progress, economist says

LONDON — U.K. gross domestic product grew 0.2% in January, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday, as construction output jumped more than expected.

The headline figure was in line with the forecast from economists polled by Reuters.

It follows a 0.1% contraction in December, while the U.K. economy entered a shallow recession in the second half of last year.

Construction output rebounded from contraction to grow 1.1% in January, the ONS said, but fell 0.9% over a three-month period. The U.K.’s dominant services sector recorded a 0.2% rise in January, providing the biggest contribution to growth, as production output fell 0.2%.

Despite recording monthly growth, GDP was estimated to have shrunk 0.3% compared with a year ago in January, and fallen 0.1% over the three months to January 2024.

UK budget announcement is 'careful and thoughtful,' ex-finance minister says

Jack Meaning, chief U.K. economist at Barclays, described the figures as “not a hugely positive picture, but it’s ahead of where we were at the end of last year.”

“Industrial and manufacturing have been weak for the last few prints, you’d expect some bounce-back from that in the end,” Meaning told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” Wednesday.

“This is good to see, but we’ll have to see it on a more prolonged basis to know that it is something sustained.”

The latest figures are consistent with a forecast for a “gradual recovery in activity” in the coming months, said James Smith, developed markets economist at ING.

“We think the decline in overall fourth quarter GDP, which marked the second consecutive quarter of negative growth and therefore a technical recession, is unlikely to be repeated in the first quarter of 2024,” Smith said in a note.

The British pound was slightly lower against the U.S. dollar and the euro following the release.

Economics

UK inflation September 2024

Published

on

The Canary Wharf business district is seen in the distance behind autumnal leaves on October 09, 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. dropped sharply to 1.7% in September, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the headline rate to come in at a higher 1.9% for the month, in the first dip of the print below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021.

Inflation has been hovering around that level for the last four months, and came in at 2.2% in August.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.2% for the month, down from 3.6% in August and below the 3.4% forecast of a Reuters poll.

Price rises in the services sector, the dominant portion of the U.K. economy, eased significantly to 4.9% last month from 5.6% in August, now hitting its lowest rate since May 2022.

Core and services inflation are key watch points for Bank of England policymakers as they mull whether to cut interest rates again at their November meeting.

As of Wednesday morning, market pricing put an 80% probability on a November rate cut ahead of the latest inflation print. Analysts on Tuesday said lower wage growth reported by the ONS this week had supported the case for a cut. The BOE reduced its key rate by 25 basis points in August before holding in September.

Within the broader European region, inflation in the euro zone dipped below the European Central Bank’s 2% target last month, hitting 1.8%, according to the latest data.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.

Continue Reading

Economics

Why Larry Hogan’s long-odds bid for a Senate seat matters

Published

on

FEW REPUBLICAN politicians differ more from Donald Trump than Larry Hogan, the GOP Senate candidate in Maryland. Consider the contrasts between a Trump rally and a Hogan event. Whereas Mr Trump prefers to take the stage and riff in front of packed arenas, Mr Hogan spent a recent Friday night chatting with locals at a waterfront wedding venue in Baltimore County. Mr Hogan’s stump speech, at around ten minutes, felt as long as a single off-script Trump tangent. Mr Trump delights in defying his advisers; Mr Hogan fastidiously sticks to talking points about bipartisanship, good governance and overcoming tough odds. Put another way, Mr Hogan’s campaign is something Mr Trump is rarely accused of being: boring. But it is intriguing.

Continue Reading

Economics

Polarisation by education is remaking American politics

Published

on

DEPENDING ON where exactly you find yourself, western Pennsylvania can feel Appalachian, Midwestern, booming or downtrodden. No matter where, however, this part of the state feels like the centre of the American political universe. Since she became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris has visited Western Pennsylvania six times—more often than Philadelphia, on the other side of the state. She will mark her seventh on a trip on October 14th, to the small city of Erie, where Donald Trump also held a rally recently. Democratic grandees flit through Pittsburgh regularly. It is where Ms Harris chose to unveil the details of her economic agenda, and it is where Barack Obama visited on October 10th to deliver encouragement and mild chastisement. “Do not just sit back and hope for the best,” he admonished. “Get off your couch and vote.”

Continue Reading

Trending