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Understanding 2025 tax policy risks as election approaches

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In less than 30 days, Americans will elect the politicians who will set policy for the next two years in Congress and four years at the White House. 

Between now and then, aside from campaign banter about eliminating taxes on tips or raising the corporate tax rate, tax policy likely won’t command much attention from the candidates. Nonetheless, it will be one of the single most important challenges facing those taking office in January. For American business leaders, the operative emotions around the coming tax policy debate might include the word fear.

In 2017, Congress passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, a massive tax bill that broadened the tax base for both businesses and individuals, fundamentally changed how the U.S. taxes multinational companies, and lowered the corporate tax rate while temporarily providing a host of individual tax cuts, including doubling the Child Tax Credit, providing a larger standard deduction, lowering individual taxes and providing AMT relief.

Generally speaking, the TCJA’s international and corporate base broadening offset the cost of the international tax changes and a substantial reduction in the corporate tax rate, while the individual base broadening, plus some deficit financing, paid for lower individual taxes. And herein lies the problem for corporate America. 

While the tax changes affecting corporations were generally permanent to avoid distortions in business decision-making, the rules for individuals were made mostly temporary. 

They are set to expire next year. 

Those looking ahead have dubbed 2025 the year of “Tax Armageddon” for the sheer importance of how much is at stake. In fact, Deloitte recently released “Approaching the cliff: Tax policy and the 2024 elections,” a detailed look at the tax dilemma the new president will inherit and what will happen after 2025 if Congress doesn’t act. 

According to recent estimates from nonpartisan congressional scorekeepers, renewing the expiring provisions for individuals in a deficit-neutral manner would require Congress to find roughly over $4 trillion in spending cuts or tax increases over the next decade to offset the costs.

To be clear, it is not even remotely probable that Congress will identify more than $4 trillion in spending cuts to pay for extending tax relief. For a sense of scope, federal spending on discretionary programs, including defense, will total about $1.7 trillion in fiscal year 2024. There is simply no way Congress could find more than $4 trillion in spending cuts over a decade without changes to Social Security and Medicare, programs that are generally seen as off-limits by many members of Congress. 

Similarly, Congress is highly unlikely to scour the Tax Code and identify over $4 trillion in politically acceptable tax increases on families to offset the looming tax cliff they face. Increasing the deficit no longer goes without notice, and doing nothing is also not a viable option, as it would result in higher taxes for the vast majority of American families in 2026. 

The reality is that if Congress decides to pay for some or all of the TCJA extensions, which seems likely in almost any alignment of power next year, the fundamental architecture of the 2017 law is very much at risk. 

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, R-Missouri, noted that some of his GOP colleagues think the corporate rate came down too much in 2017 and could be increased. The question that is going to be asked often next year may not be whether taxes on corporate America will increase, but whether Congress will raise the corporate rate or generate revenue by broadening the corporate tax base. 

And the answer very well could be: “Why not both?” 

Compounding this risk for businesses are two stark realities. 

First, there has been tremendous turnover in Congress generally and on the tax-writing panels in particular. Many lawmakers with institutional knowledge about the flaws in the pre-2017 Tax Code and the reasons for the changes made that year — especially the rationale for the international reforms and for the 21% corporate rate — have left Washington. 

Second, an increasing number of Republicans in the House and Senate, who once were reliable opponents of tax increases on businesses, now belong to what has become a far more populist political party and are more apt to listen to small-business owners than corporate CEOs. It is difficult, though not impossible, to envision a political alignment next year that would support fully deficit-financing extensions of the current law.

In 2017, business leaders played offense and defense. They pushed hard for a lower corporate tax rate and fought to minimize the impact of the base broadeners on their specific companies. However, 2025 promises to be a much more defensive exercise for corporate leaders. 

Accordingly, the time is now for business executives to identify the real-world impact of some of the options that may have surface political appeal. Similarly, finance function leaders would be well advised to make sure all internal stakeholders understand and educate themselves about the stakes in next year’s tax fight and the potential impact to the company’s bottom line.  

Amid the many pressing issues as we head into the final stretch of this campaign season, tax policy may not be top of mind, but it should be. The stakes for the 2025 tax debate are high and the impacts will be far-reaching.

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IRS employee union requests emergency relief

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The National Treasury Employees Union, which represents workers at the Internal Revenue Service among 37 federal agencies and offices, has asked a federal judge for emergency relief to preserve the union rights of federal employees while NTEU’s legal challenge to President Trump’s executive order stripping unions of collective bargaining rights can be heard in court.

Trump signed an executive order last Thursday removing the requirements from employees at agencies including the Treasury Department that he deemed to have national security missions. On Monday, the NTEU filed a lawsuit to stop the move arguing that Trump’s rationale for protecting national security was just a way to end union protections for federal workers. The administration also wants to prevent the unions from collecting dues automatically withheld from employee paychecks.

NTEU’s request for a preliminary injunction was filed Friday with U.S. District Judge Paul Friedman.

 “NTEU seeks emergency relief to protect itself and the workers it represents from this unlawful attempt to eliminate collective bargaining for some two-thirds of the federal workforce,” the request stated.

The NTEU contended that the Trump administration’s executive order claims that allowing workers to join a union was a threat to national security were absurd.

“We all know this has nothing to do with national security and that the true goal here is to make it easier to fire federal employees across government,” said NTEU national president Doreen Greenwald in a statement Friday. “Just five days after declaring the administration would no longer honor our contract with Health and Human Services, thousands of brilliant civil servants who work tirelessly to improve public health were let go for spurious reasons and little recourse to fight back.”

The union pointed out that Congress declared 47 years ago that collective bargaining in the federal sector was in the public’s interest by giving employees a voice in the workplace and allowing labor and management to work together. It acknowledged there is a narrow exemption in the law for groups of employees whose work directly impacts national security, but argued that Trump’s executive order is blatant retaliation against federal sector unions and ignores the laws passed by Congress creating the agencies.

In agencies where a reduction-in-force has been announced, NTEU’s contracts provide time for employees to respond to a RIF notice and explore alternatives to mitigate the impact of the layoffs.

Earlier this week, after two court rulings in California and Maryland, the IRS’s acting commissioner, Melanie Krause, announced the IRS would be bringing back approximately 7,000 probationary employees who had been fired and then put on paid administrative leave.

A bipartisan bill has been introduced in Congress to preserve collective bargaining rights for federal employees. The Protect America’s Workforce Act (H.R. 2550), sponsored by Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, and Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pennsylvania, would overturn Trump’s executive order stripping collective bargaining rights from hundreds of thousands of federal workers at multiple agencies.  Separately, eight House Republicans and every House and Senate Democrat have sent letters to the White House condemning the executive order.

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Estate planning for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expiration

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The political calculus involved with the details of estate planning next year and beyond may be distracting financial advisors and clients from a larger, simpler conversation, one expert says.

On the off chance that the federal estate-tax exemption levels of $13.99 million for individuals (and double for couples) revert to half those amounts when Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions expire in 2026, only 0.2% of households would face potential duties upon transfer of assets, according to Ben Rizzuto, a wealth strategist with Janus Henderson Investors‘ Specialist Consulting Group. He predicted that most financial advisors and high net worth clients, such as those he works with and others across the industry, will see no changes. 

With few other revenue-raising provisions available to President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers, they’re not likely to shield all estates from payments to Uncle Sam — as much as they might like to play undertaker to the “Death of the Death Tax,” Rizzuto said, using the label for estate taxes adopted by critics favoring bills like the “Death Tax Repeal Act.” Lawmakers’ decisions on future exemptions from the taxes (and when they make those decisions) remain out of advisors’ control. Meanwhile, they must remind clients that estate planning is much more than having a will and avoiding taxes, Rizzuto said.

“For financial advisors and clients, I would expect for many of them not to have to worry about federal estate taxes next year,” he said in an interview. “Even though they may not have to worry about it, there are still a lot of good conversations to be had.”

READ MORE: Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expiration: A guide for financial advisors

The 1%

Trust tools that reduce the value of the assets that will transfer to spouses or other beneficiaries upon a client’s death, combined with the available statistics about the shrinking share of estates subject to taxes, could bring some peace of mind to clients. The 2017 tax law itself pushed down estate tax liability as a percentage of gross domestic product to a quarter of its 2001 level, according to an analysis by the “Budget Model” of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. Just two years after the law’s passage, the number of taxable estates had plummeted to 1,275 — or 1% of the number at the beginning of the century.

At the same time, advisors could raise any number of questions with clients about their estates that involve varying degrees of expertise and collaboration with outside professionals. And many surveys have found that clients are expecting them to do so. For example, at least 70% out of a group of 10,000 adults contacted in January by WeAreTalker (formerly OnePoll) on behalf of online legal information service Trust & Will said advisors should offer estate planning. In addition, 40% of the group said they would switch to an advisor who provided that service.

“We’re seeing a fundamental shift in client expectations,” Trust & Will CEO Cody Barbo said in a statement. “The findings are clear. Advisors who fail to integrate estate planning into their practice aren’t just missing an opportunity; they are facing a threat to their client base as wealth transfers to younger generations over the next two decades.”

READ MORE: Ethical wills can be a crucial tool for estate planning

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Get back to the planning basics

In that context, advisors and their clients should steer clear of trying to make sense of a complicated, ever-changing flow of news from Capitol Hill as Trump and the GOP pursue major tax legislation with a year-end deadline, Rizzuto said. If clients truly could be on the hook for estate taxes, a grantor retained annuity trust, a spousal lifetime access trust or gifting strategies may eliminate the possibility. One method involved with the latter could set them up in the future to receive stock that is “highly appreciated with lower basis,” Rizzuto noted, citing the example of equities that have gained a lot of value that a client could give to their parents.

“Why not gift them upstream?” Rizzuto said. “My father holds it. I tell him, ‘Dad, you have to do these things: Live for another 12 months, make sure you don’t sell, make sure that you update your will or your instructions to gift it back to me when you die.’ That’s another idea that we’ve been talking about with advisors.”

From another perspective, these possible paths forward may beckon to clients this year, if they are tuning into Beltway news about the progress of the tax legislation, he said. To bypass the risk of client perceptions that their advisor isn’t doing any tax planning at all, Washington’s complex maneuvering around the future rules is, “if nothing else,” a “great opportunity for advisors to bring this up at a very high level,” Rizzuto said.

“Advisors will really need to go back to basics and have some foundational conversations with clients,” he said, suggesting their goals with taxes as one key point of discussion. “‘What is it that we actually control within your financial and tax plan?’ When it comes right down to it, it’s really just incomes and deductions.”

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Developing future leaders in accounting: the new imperative in an AI and automation driven era

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As technology continues to automate routine tasks, the role of finance professionals is evolving, demanding deeper capabilities in critical thinking, communication and business acumen. 

Many of PrimeGlobal’s North American firms are focused on cultivating these skills in their future leaders. Carla McCall, managing partner at AAFCPAs, Randy Nail, CEO of HoganTaylor, and Grassi managing partner Louis Grassi shared their views with PrimeGlobal CEO Steve Heathcote on the need for future leaders to balance technological proficiency with human-centered skills to thrive.

AI is transforming the sector by streamlining workflows, automating data analysis and reducing manual processes. However, rather than replacing accountants, AI is reshaping their roles, enabling them to focus on higher-value tasks. In the words of Louis Grassi, AI can be seen as a strategic partner, freeing accountants from routine tasks, enabling deeper engagement with clients, more thoughtful analysis, and ultimately better decision-making. 

Nail emphasized the importance of embracing AI, warning that those who fail to adapt risk being replaced by professionals who leverage the technology more effectively. HoganTaylor’s “innovation sprint” generated over 100 ideas for AI integration, underscoring why a proactive approach to adopting new technologies is so necessary and valuable.

McCall advocates for an educational shift that equips professionals with the skills to interpret AI-generated insights. She stressed that accounting curricula of the future must evolve to incorporate advanced technology training, ensuring future accountants are well-versed in AI tools and data analytics. Moreover, simulation-based learning is becoming increasingly crucial as traditional methods of education become obsolete in the face of automation.

Talent development and leadership growth

As AI reshapes the profession, firms must rethink how they develop and nurture their future leaders. To attract and retain top talent, firms need to prioritize personalized development plans that align with individual career goals. 

HoganTaylor’s approach to talent development integrates technical expertise with leadership and communication training. These initiatives ensure professionals are not only proficient in accounting principles but also equipped to lead teams and navigate complex client interactions.

Nail underscored the growing importance of writing and presentation skills, as AI will handle routine tasks, leaving professionals to focus on higher-level analytical and decision-making responsibilities.

Soft skills are the success skills

While technical proficiency remains vital, future leaders must also cultivate critical thinking, communication and adaptability — skills McCall refers to as the “success skills.” McCall highlights the necessity of business acumen and analytical communication, essential for interpreting data, advising clients and making strategic decisions. 

Recognizing teamwork and collaboration remain crucial in the hybrid work environment, McCall explained in detail how AAFCPA fosters collaboration through structured remote engagement strategies such as “intentional office time,” alcove sessions and stand-up meetings. Similarly, HoganTaylor supports remote teams by offering training for career advisors to ensure effective mentorship and engagement in a dispersed workforce.

McCall emphasized why global experience can be valuable in leadership development. Exposure to diverse markets and accounting practices enhances professionals’ adaptability and broadens their perspectives, preparing them for leadership roles in an increasingly interconnected world.

Grassi reminded us that an often-overlooked leadership skill is curiosity. In his view the most effective leaders of tomorrow will be inherently curious — not just about emerging technologies but about clients, market shifts and global trends. Encouraging curiosity and continuous learning within our firms will distinguish the true industry leaders from those simply reacting to change.

A balanced future

What’s clear from speaking to our leaders is PrimeGlobal’s role in fostering trust, community and knowledge sharing. McCall recommended member-driven panels to discuss AI implementation and automation strategies and share best practice. Nail, on the other hand, valued PrimeGlobal’s focus on addressing critical industry issues and encouraged continuous evolution to meet professionals’ changing needs.

The future of leadership in the accountancy profession hinges on a balanced approach, leveraging AI to enhance efficiency while cultivating essential human skills that technology cannot replicate, which Grassi highlights skills including leadership and building client trust.

As McCall and Nail advocate, the next generation of accountants must be agile thinkers, skilled communicators and strategic decision-makers. Firms that invest in these competencies will not only stay competitive but will also shape the future of the industry by developing well-rounded leaders prepared for the challenges ahead.

By investing in both AI capabilities and essential human skills, firms can not only future proof their leadership but also shape a resilient and forward-thinking profession ready to meet the challenges of the future.

As Grassi concluded, while technical skills provide the foundation, leadership in accounting increasingly demands emotional intelligence, empathy and adaptability. AI will change how we perform our work, but human connection, trust and nuanced judgment are irreplaceable. Investing in these human-centric skills today is critical for firms aiming to build resilient leaders of tomorrow. To remain relevant and thrive, professionals must prioritize developing strong success skills that will define the leaders of tomorrow.

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