The logo of German bank Commerzbank seen on a branch office near the Commerzbank Tower in Frankfurt.
Daniel Roland | Afp | Getty Images
Two months since UniCredit played its opening move to woo German lender Commerzbank, the lenders flaunted their financial strength as one of Europe’s largest banking mergers still hangs in balance.
Both banks reported third-quarter results on Wednesday, with UniCredit posting an 8% year-on-year hike in net profit to 2.5 billion euros ($2.25 billion), compared with a Reuters-reported 2.27-billion euro forecast. It raised its full-year net profit guidance to above 9 billion euros, from a previous outlook of 8.5 billion euros.
For its part, Commerzbank revealed a 6.2% drop in net profit to 642 million euros in the third quarter amid a broader drop in net interest income and higher risk provisions. The lender nevertheless said it has lifted its 2024 expectations for net interest and net commissions income, and confirmed its full-year forecast of achieving a net result of 2.4 billion euro, compared with 2.2 billion euros in 2023.
Speaking to CNBC’s Annette Weisbach, Commerzbank CEO Bettina Orlopp said the bank experienced a “very good quarter,” while acknowledging a clear impact on business from lower interest rates in Europe.
She stressed that Commerzbank was on a path of raising its share value through a blend of capital return and higher profitability and the expediency with which the lender hits its targets.
“We have a very good strategy in place, which is also delivering,” she said — as markets watch for whether the bank will assume a defense strategy to fend off takeover interest.
Commerzbank has so far shied from UniCredit’s courtship. When the Italian lender showed its hand by using derivatives to build a potential 21% stake in Commerzbank, the German lender appointed a new CEO and sharpened its financial targets. On Monday, the German bank said it had received regulatory approval to buy back 600 million euros ($653 million) in shares, due to kick off after the Wednesday earnings report and complete by the middle of February.
Yet Orlopp told CNBC that Commerzbank was not intrinsically opposed to a merger:
“We have nothing to be against, because there is nothing on the table. That’s very important to note. And we also always said we would be very open to discuss, if they had something coming on the table, we will carefully review that with our own standalone strategy and see where we can create more values in the interest of our stakeholders,” she said.
The German government has yet to bless the potential union, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz slamming that “unfriendly attacks, hostile takeovers are not a good thing for banks,” in late-September comments carried by Reuters.
The largest shareholder of Commerzbank, the Berlin administration retains a 12% stake after rescuing the lender during the 2008 financial crisis and divesting 4.5% of its initial position in early September.
But a potential schism at home could waylay Scholz’s ruling alliance from closely supervising the transaction, with coalition members due to hold scheduled talks later on Wednesday.
“Let’s put it this way: we wouldn’t be here if we hadn’t been invited to buy that stake. And it all started in a way that we thought was constructive,” UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel told CNBC’s Charlotte Reed on Wednesday. CNBC has reached out to the German Ministry of Finance for comment.
Appetite for large European cross-border bank mergers has simmered since the controversial 2007 takeover and later evisceration of Dutch lender ABN Amro by a consortium led by the Royal Bank of Scotland — which brought both banks to collapse during the financial crisis. UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel, then a senior investment banker at Merril Lynch, advised on the ABN Amro transaction — and has once more turned his eye to international ventures, after the Italian lender walked away from a domestic deal to acquire the world’s oldest bank, Monte dei Paschi, in 2021.
UniCredit is already present in Germany through its HypoVereinsbank branch — which Orcel said he sees, alongside Commerzbank, as “two mirror images.”
Last year, UniCredit purchased a nearly 9% stake of Greece’s Alpha Bank from the state-owned Hellenic Financial Stability Fund. On Tuesday, the Italian lender announced it completed acquiring a majority 90.1% interest in Alpha Bank’s Romanian business and plans to complete absorbing the entity in the second half of 2025.
With a common equity tier 1 ratio (CET 1) — a measure of a bank’s strength and resilience — above 16% in the first three quarters of this year, UniCredit appears equipped to weather the strain of a takeover. Last week, Fitch Ratings upgraded its rating on UniCredit’s long-term debt to BBB+ — just above the BBB grade of Italy’s sovereign bonds — citing the lender’s “multi-year long restructuring, balance sheet de-risking and materially improved loss absorption capacity.”
The ratings company noted that UniCredit’s acquisition of a 21% stake in Commerzbank had had no “immediate effect” on its ratings.
Orcel brushed off the exposure risks associated with its stake build in the German lender and a potential takeover:
“Our CET1 is a lot higher than the one Commerzbank has, [but] we need to look at liquidity, we need to look at everything else, like rating agencies. At the end of the day, I don’t think there is a concern there. If there was, we would know about it before we ever had moved,” Orcel noted, stressing UniCredit’s record in Germany:
“Unicredit went through a real difficult time through the [financial] crisis,” he said. “At no time did we squeeze Germany, at no time did we repatriate capital or liquidity from Germany, at no time did we ask for government support. Something that Commerzbank had to do.”
But the deal is not yet done — and Orcel said UniCredit will only march ahead “if it gives us the returns out investors expect, actually, they need to improve those returns meaningfully.”
Leading analyst Craig Moffett suggests any plans to move U.S. iPhone assembly to India is unrealistic.
Moffett, ranked as a top analyst multiple times by Institutional Investor, sent a memo to clients on Friday after the Financial Times reported Apple was aiming to shift production toward India from China by the end of next year.
He’s questioning how a move could bring down costs tied to tariffs because the iPhone components would still be made in China.
“You have a tremendous menu of problems created by tariffs, and moving to India doesn’t solve all the problems. Now granted, it helps to some degree,” the MoffettNathanson partner and senior managing director told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Friday. “I would question how that’s going to work.”
Moffett contends it’s not so easy to diversify to India — telling clients Apple’s supply chain would still be anchored in China and would likely face resistance.
“The bottom line is a global trade war is a two-front battle, impacting costs and sales. Moving assembly to India might (and we emphasize might) help with the former. The latter may ultimately be the bigger issue,” he wrote to clients.
Moffett cut his Apple price target on Monday to $141 from $184 a share. It implies a 33% drop from Friday’s close. The price target is also the Street low, according to FactSet.
“I don’t think of myself as the biggest Apple bear,” he said. “I think quite highly of Apple. My concern about Apple has been the valuation more than the company.”
Moffett has had a “sell” rating on Apple since Jan. 7. Since then, the company’s shares are down about 14%.
“None of this is because Apple is a bad company. They still have a great balance sheet [and] a great consumer franchise,” he said. “It’s just the reality of there are no good answers when you are a product company, and your products are going to be significantly tariffed, and you’re heading into a market that is likely to have at least some deceleration in consumer demand because of the macro economy.”
Moffett notes Apple also isn’t getting help from its carriers to cushion the blow of tariffs.
“You also have the demand destruction that’s created by potentially higher prices. Remember, you had AT&T, Verizon and T. Mobile all this week come out and say we’re not going to underwrite the additional cost of tariff [on] handsets,” he added. “The consumer is going to have to pay for that. So, you’re going to have some demand destruction that’s going to show up in even longer holding periods and slower upgrade rates — all of which probably trims estimates next year’s consensus.”
According to Moffett, the backlash against Apple in China over U.S. tariffs will also hurt iPhone sales.
“It’s a very real problem,” Moffett said. “Volumes are really going to the Huaweis and the Vivos and the local competitors in China rather than to Apple.”
Apple stock is coming off a winning week — up more than 6%. It comes ahead of the iPhone maker’s quarterly earnings report due next Thursday after the market close.
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In a year that hasn’t been kind to many big-name stocks, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is standing near the top. Berkshire shares have posted a 17% return year-to-date, while the S&P 500 index is down 6%.
That performance places Berkshire among the top 10% of the U.S. market’s large-cap leaders, and the run has been getting Buffett more attention ahead of next weekend’s annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in Omaha, Nebraska. It’s also good timing for the recently launched VistaShares Target 15 Berkshire Select Income ETF(OMAH), which holds the top 20 most heavily weighted stocks in Berkshire Hathaway, as well as shares of Berkshire Hathaway.
“It’s a really well-balanced portfolio chosen by the most successful investor the world has ever seen,” Adam Patti, CEO of VistaShares, said in an appearance this week on CNBC’s “ETF Edge.”
Berkshire’s outperformance of the S&P 500 isn’t limited to 2025. Buffett’s stock has tripled the performance of the market over the past year, and its 185% return over the past five years is more than double the performance of the S&P 500.
Berkshire Hathaway is one of 2025’s top performing stocks.
In addition to this long-term track record of success in the market, Berkshire Hathaway is getting a lot of attention right now for the record amount of cash Buffett is holding as he trimmed stakes in big stocks including Apple, which has proven to be a great strategy. The S&P 500 has experienced extreme short-term volatility since President Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20. Even after a recent recovery, the S&P is still down 8% since the start of Trump’s second term.
“The market has been momentum driven for many years, the switch has flipped and we’re looking at quality in terms of exposure, and Berkshire Hathaway has performed incredibly well this year, handily outperforming the S&P 500,” said Patti.
Berkshire Hathaway famously doesn’t pay a dividend, with Buffett holding firm over many decades in the belief that he can re-invest cash to create more value for shareholders. In a letter to shareholders in February, Buffett wrote that Berkshire shareholders “can rest assured that we will forever deploy a substantial majority of their money in equities — mostly American equities.”
The lack of a dividend payment has been an issue over the years for some shareholders at Berkshire who do want income from the market, according to Patti, who added that his firm conducted research among investors in designing the ETF. “Who doesn’t want to invest like Buffett, but with income?” he said.
So, in addition to being tied to the performance of Berkshire and the stock picks of Buffett, the VistaShares Target 15 Berkshire Select Income ETF is designed to produce income of 15% annually through a strategy of selling call options and distributing monthly payments of 1.25% to shareholders. This income strategy has become more popular in the ETF space, with more asset managers launching funds to capture income opportunities and more investors adopting the approach amid market volatility.
People shop for produce at a Walmart in Rosemead, California, on April 11, 2025.
Frederic J. Brown | Afp | Getty Images
A growing number of Americans are using buy now, pay later loans to buy groceries, and more people are paying those bills late, according to new Lending Tree data released Friday.
The figures are the latest indicator that some consumers are cracking under the pressure of an uncertain economy and are having trouble affording essentials such as groceries as they contend with persistent inflation, high interest rates and concerns around tariffs.
In a survey conducted April 2-3 of 2,000 U.S. consumers ages 18 to 79, around half reported having used buy now, pay later services. Of those consumers, 25% of respondents said they were using BNPL loans to buy groceries, up from 14% in 2024 and 21% in 2023, the firm said.
Meanwhile, 41% of respondents said they made a late payment on a BNPL loan in the past year, up from 34% in the year prior, the survey found.
Lending Tree’s chief consumer finance analyst, Matt Schulz, said that of those respondents who said they paid a BNPL bill late, most said it was by no more than a week or so.
“A lot of people are struggling and looking for ways to extend their budget,” Schulz said. “Inflation is still a problem. Interest rates are still really high. There’s a lot of uncertainty around tariffs and other economic issues, and it’s all going to add up to a lot of people looking for ways to extend their budget however they can.”
“For an awful lot of people, that’s going to mean leaning on buy now, pay later loans, for better or for worse,” he said.
He stopped short of calling the results a recession indicator but said conditions are expected to decline further before they get better.
“I do think it’s going to get worse, at least in the short term,” said Schulz. “I don’t know that there’s a whole lot of reason to expect these numbers to get better in the near term.”
The loans, which allow consumers to split up purchases into several smaller payments, are a popular alternative to credit cards because they often don’t charge interest. But consumers can see high fees if they pay late, and they can run into problems if they stack up multiple loans. In Lending Tree’s survey, 60% of BNPL users said they’ve had multiple loans at once, with nearly a fourth saying they have held three or more at once.
“It’s just really important for people to be cautious when they use these things, because even though they can be a really good interest-free tool to help you kind of make it from one paycheck to the next, there’s also a lot of risk in mismanaging it,” said Schulz. “So people should tread lightly.”
Lending Tree’s findings come after Billboard revealed that about 60% of general admission Coachella attendees funded their concert tickets with buy now, pay later loans, sparking a debate on the state of the economy and how consumers are using debt to keep up their lifestyles. A recent announcement from DoorDash that it would begin accepting BNPL financing from Klarna for food deliveries led to widespread mockery and jokes that Americans were struggling so much that they were now being forced to finance cheeseburgers and burritos.
Over the last few years, consumers have held up relatively well, even in the face of persistent inflation and high interest rates, because the job market was strong and wage growth had kept up with inflation — at least for some workers.
Earlier this year, however, large companies including Walmart and Delta Airlines began warning that the dynamic had begun to shift and they were seeing cracks in demand, which was leading to worse-than-expected sales forecasts.