Attendees cheer as a broadcast of former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trum speaking at his Florida election party is shown on a screen at the Nevada GOP election watch party in Las Vegas, Nevada on November 6, 2024.
Ronda Churchill | Afp | Getty Images
Wall Street dealmakers and corporate leaders expect the flood gates to open on merger and acquisition activity after President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January.
And he’ll likely have congressional help. Trump defeated Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris, and Republicans claimed a majority of the Senate in elections this week. That red wave is expected to spell loosening regulations on deal-making, with plenty of pent-up demand.
“We know kind of where the world is headed in a Trump environment because we’ve seen it before,” said Jeffrey Solomon, president of TD Cowen, on CNBC’s “Money Movers” Wednesday. “I think the regulatory environment will be much more conducive to economic growth. There will be lighter and targeted regulation.”
Solomon added that the scaled-back regulation will be focused on certain areas “of particular interest to the Trump administration,” rather than a broad based reassessment of the entire landscape.
In recent years, there has been greater scrutiny of pending deals by the Biden administration’s Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission, headed by Chair Lina Khan. Some have pointed to that dynamic as a chilling factor on deal flow. High interest rates and soaring company valuations have contributed, too.
Khan said in September that “when you see greater scrutiny of mergers, you can see greater deterrence of illegal mergers.” Her hard line has drawn harsh criticism, but now, there’s optimism around a forthcoming FTC with a lighter hand.
“Assuming interest rates drop and you see corporate tax rates go down, the ingredients are there for a really active M&A market,” said one top dealmaker, who talked to CNBC on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly.
Some sectors, including financial and pharmaceutical industries in particular, are likely to get a lift under a second Trump regime, experts said.
“We could see domestic manufacturing benefit from increased tariffs as well as a growth in technology, which slowed down from a tighter antitrust environment,” said Howard Gutman, private equity strategy and coverage lead for MorganFranklin Consulting. “Additionally, we expect the aerospace and defense industry to grow as it has historically done during past Republican administrations paired with the broader geopolitical environment.”
Other industries, such as tech, may still face an uphill battle in getting deals done.
One M&A advisor, who also spoke to CNBC anonymously, noted that Trump’s disdain for Big Tech companies — historically active deal-makers — might keep them on the sidelines. On Wednesday, tech leaders took to social media to congratulate Trump.
Apparent GOP opposition to the CHIPS Act means that semiconductor consolidation might be challenging, the advisor noted, while cautioning it is still too early to know what a Trump presidency would mean. CNBC previously reported that Qualcomm recently approached Intel about a potential takeover.
“I think the simplest way to put it is more deals, less regulation with the administration having its thumb on the scale, perhaps with a willingness to pick winners and losers,” said Jonathan Miller, chief executive of Integrated Media, which specializes in digital media investments.
Regional banks, many of which recognize the need for scale, will also likely look to consolidate, said one former industry executive. That advisor noted that smaller banks had been getting gobbled up for “some time,” but that the pace and size of those acquisitions would likely ramp up under a Trump presidency.
Pharmaceutical executives are also optimistic that lighter antitrust enforcement could clear the way for deal-making, said one health-care-focused M&A advisor, who added that antitrust enforcement could have “hardly gotten worse” under either administration but now believes things will improve “meaningfully.”
Khan has taken on scores of biopharma mergers over the last four years, arguing that monopolies will stifle the development of new drugs in certain disease areas and hurt consumer choice. Biotech company Illumina last year said it would divest diagnostic test maker Grail after heated battles with the FTC and European antitrust regulators.
Also last year, the FTC blocked Sanofi’s proposed acquisition of a drug in development for Pompe disease, a genetic condition, from Maze Therapeutics. Sanofi ultimately terminated that deal.
“Whether or not Lina Khan is bounced day one is a key consideration, but even if fewer changes at the FTC take place, there is no doubt this administration — at least on paper — will be far more amicable when it comes to business combinations,” Jared Holz, Mizuho health-care equity strategist, said in an email on Wednesday.
One top dealmaker expected an M&A uptick broadly, but agreed that the financial sector and pharmaceuticals were particularly poised for a resurgence. That deal-maker also noted that with the Senate flipping, more outspoken antitrust voices like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., could find it more difficult to push for DOJ or FTC investigations.
Eyes on retail, media
David Zaslav at the Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference on July 9, 2024 in Sun Valley, Idaho.
David Grogan | CNBC
A Trump presidency could usher in a number of retail deals that have been hamstrung by the FTC. Kroger’sbid to take over grocery chain Albertsons could have a better chance of getting approved under Trump, as could Tapestry’s proposed acquisition of Capri.
The merger between Kroger and Albertsons is currently under review by a federal judge, while Tapestry is working to appeal a federal order that granted the FTC’s motion for a preliminary injunction against the tie-up.
“The hostile approach of the FTC to mergers and acquisitions will almost certainly be reset and replaced with a worldview that is more favorable to corporate dealmaking,” said GlobalData managing director Neil Saunders. “This does not necessarily mean that big deals like Kroger-Albertsons will be waved through, but it does mean others like Tapestry-Capri will receive a far warmer reception than they have under the Biden administration.”
Meanwhile, ongoing turmoil in the media industry has led many to consider consolidation as the next step for the sector.
Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav on Thursday highlighted opportunities that could come up if regulations were to loosen, doubling down on comments he made earlier this year at Allen & Co.’s annual Sun Valley conference.
“We have an upcoming new administration. … It’s too early to tell, but it may offer a pace of change and opportunity for consolidation that may be quite different, that would provide a real positive and accelerated impact on this industry that’s needed,” Zaslav said on an earnings call.
Broadcast station group owner Sinclair on Wednesday echoed a similar sentiment.
“We’re very excited about the upcoming regulatory environment,” CEO Chris Ripley said during an earnings call. “It does feel like a cloud over the industry is lifting here.”
Still, the track record between the previous Trump administration and the Biden administration for media industry deals is split.
Trump’s DOJ allowed Disney to buy Fox’s assets, but then sued to block AT&T’s deal for Time Warner.
Under the Biden administration, Amazon’s $8.5 billion deal for MGM and the merger of Warner Bros. and Discovery Communications were both waved through, but a federal judge blocked the $2.2 billion sale of Simon & Schuster to Penguin Random House.
Skydance Media and Paramount Global agreed to merge earlier this year and expect to receive regulatory approval in 2025.
UnitedHealth Group saw some of its insiders step in and purchase declining shares this week.
Kristen Gil, a director at the firm, bought 3,700 shares worth roughly $1 million on Thursday.
Shares of UnitedHealth plunged nearly 11% to $274.35 on Thursday following a report in The Wall Street Journal that the Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into possible Medicare fraud.
UnitedHealth Group , whose stock has been in a tailspin amid a tumultuous period for the health-care giant, saw some of its insiders step in and purchase declining shares this week. Kristen Gil, a director at the firm, bought 3,700 shares worth roughly $1 million on Thursday, while Timothy Patrick Flynn and John Noseworthy, also directors, scooped up about 1,500 and 300 shares , respectively, on Wednesday, according to InsiderScore, which tracks regulatory filings from corporate insiders. Shares of UnitedHealth plunged nearly 11% to $274.35 on Thursday following a report in The Wall Street Journal that the Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into possible Medicare fraud. The stock rebounded 6% Friday, cutting its weekly losses to 23%. UNH 5D mountain UnitedHealth The reported investigation also follows the surprise exit of UnitedHealth Group CEO Andrew Witty, who will be replaced by the company’s former longtime chief executive Stephen Hemsley. Shares of UnitedHealth Group are down roughly 43% this year following a string of setbacks for the company. The company has been grappling with a historic cyberattack, higher-than-expected medical costs and a torrent of public blowback after the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson.
U.S. Federal Reserve in Washington, DC, on January 30, 2024.
Mandel Ngan | Afp | Getty Images
The Federal Reserve will look to reduce its headcount by 10% over the next couple of years, including offering deferred resignation to some older employees, central bank chair Jerome Powell said in a memo.
“Experience here and elsewhere shows that it is healthy for any organization to periodically take a fresh look at its staffing and resources. The Fed has done that from time to time as our work, priorities, or external environment have changed,” Powell said in a memo obtained by CNBC.
The central bank chief added that he has instructed leaders throughout the Fed “to find incremental ways to consolidate functions where appropriate, modernize some business practices, and ensure that we are right-sized and able to meet our statutory mission.” One method for shrinking the staff will be to offer a voluntary deferred resignation program to employees of the Federal Reserve Board who would be fully eligible to retire at the end of 2027.
The central bank said in its 2023 annual report that it had just under 24,000 employees. A 10% reduction would bring that number below 22,000.
The memo comes as the Trump administration has pushed for cost cuts across civil service agencies, spearheaded by Elon Musk and the so-called Department of Government Efficiency. Musk has previously called the Fed “absurdly overstaffed.” Powell’s memo did not mention Musk or DOGE as a factor in the decision to shrink headcount.
The planned staff cuts were first reported by Bloomberg News.
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading. Applied Materials — Shares of the semiconductor manufacturer dropped 6% after Applied Materials posted disappointing fiscal second-quarter revenue. The company’s revenue of $7.10 billion was below the LSEG consensus of $7.13 billion. Semiconductor revenue of $5.26 billion also disappointed the $5.31 billion analysts were looking for. Take-Two Interactive Software — The stock slid 1.8% after the video game company gave weaker-than-anticipated guidance for full-year bookings, expecting the figure to come between $5.9 billion and $6 billion. That missed the $7.82 billion StreetAccount consensus. Take-Two also projected bookings of between $1.25 billion and $1.30 billion for the current quarter, while analysts had penciled in $1.28 billion. Vistra — Shares of the power producer gained 3% after the company purchased seven natural gas facilities from Lotus Infrastructure Partners for $1.9 billion. The gas plants are located in the PJM market, New England, New York and California. Constellation Brands — Shares of the Corona and Modelo importer climbed 1.4% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed doubling its stake in the company, putting its position at around $2.2 billion in value. Galaxy Digital — The Mike Novogratz-led crypto firm began trading at the Nasdaq on Friday, opening at $23.50 per share in a direct listing. Galaxy Digital has traded in Canada since 2020 . Cava — The eatery chain’s stock dropped more than 2% after the company reiterated its full-year guidance for same restaurant sales, implying a slowdown from first-quarter results. Cava said it achieved 10.8% same store sales growth. However, it maintained a full-year projection of 6% to 8% improvement in that category. Cava’s earnings per share of 22 cents for the period was ahead of projections for 14 cents per share, according to LSEG. Fiserv — The financial services provider jumped more than 4% as the stock recovered some of its steep losses for the week. Fiserv is down more than 9% this week and is one of the most oversold names on Wall Street, with a relative strength index below 30. Coinbase — The crypto exchange jumped more than 9%, recovering losses from the previous session. Some Wall Street analysts called the sell-off overdone and a buying opportunity . On Thursday, the company confirmed the Securities and Exchange Commission has been investigating whether it has misstated its user numbers , sending the stock down 7.2%. Novo Nordisk — Shares stumbled 3% after the pharmaceutical company announced that CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen would be stepping down from his position , citing recent market challenges. Jørgensen, who was in the position for the last eight years, will remain “for a period to support a smooth transition to new leadership” as Novo Nordisk searches for a successor. Doximity — The health care platform issued weak guidance, sending the stock down 11.8%. Doximity expects adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter to come in between $71 million and $72 million. That’s short of the $74 million expected from analysts polled by StreetAccount. Revenue guidance for both the first quarter and full year also missed expectations. — CNBC’s Tanaya Macheel, Lisa Han, Jesse Pound and Michelle Fox contributed reporting.