Attendees cheer as a broadcast of former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trum speaking at his Florida election party is shown on a screen at the Nevada GOP election watch party in Las Vegas, Nevada on November 6, 2024.
Ronda Churchill | Afp | Getty Images
Wall Street dealmakers and corporate leaders expect the flood gates to open on merger and acquisition activity after President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January.
And he’ll likely have congressional help. Trump defeated Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris, and Republicans claimed a majority of the Senate in elections this week. That red wave is expected to spell loosening regulations on deal-making, with plenty of pent-up demand.
“We know kind of where the world is headed in a Trump environment because we’ve seen it before,” said Jeffrey Solomon, president of TD Cowen, on CNBC’s “Money Movers” Wednesday. “I think the regulatory environment will be much more conducive to economic growth. There will be lighter and targeted regulation.”
Solomon added that the scaled-back regulation will be focused on certain areas “of particular interest to the Trump administration,” rather than a broad based reassessment of the entire landscape.
In recent years, there has been greater scrutiny of pending deals by the Biden administration’s Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission, headed by Chair Lina Khan. Some have pointed to that dynamic as a chilling factor on deal flow. High interest rates and soaring company valuations have contributed, too.
Khan said in September that “when you see greater scrutiny of mergers, you can see greater deterrence of illegal mergers.” Her hard line has drawn harsh criticism, but now, there’s optimism around a forthcoming FTC with a lighter hand.
“Assuming interest rates drop and you see corporate tax rates go down, the ingredients are there for a really active M&A market,” said one top dealmaker, who talked to CNBC on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly.
Some sectors, including financial and pharmaceutical industries in particular, are likely to get a lift under a second Trump regime, experts said.
“We could see domestic manufacturing benefit from increased tariffs as well as a growth in technology, which slowed down from a tighter antitrust environment,” said Howard Gutman, private equity strategy and coverage lead for MorganFranklin Consulting. “Additionally, we expect the aerospace and defense industry to grow as it has historically done during past Republican administrations paired with the broader geopolitical environment.”
Other industries, such as tech, may still face an uphill battle in getting deals done.
One M&A advisor, who also spoke to CNBC anonymously, noted that Trump’s disdain for Big Tech companies — historically active deal-makers — might keep them on the sidelines. On Wednesday, tech leaders took to social media to congratulate Trump.
Apparent GOP opposition to the CHIPS Act means that semiconductor consolidation might be challenging, the advisor noted, while cautioning it is still too early to know what a Trump presidency would mean. CNBC previously reported that Qualcomm recently approached Intel about a potential takeover.
“I think the simplest way to put it is more deals, less regulation with the administration having its thumb on the scale, perhaps with a willingness to pick winners and losers,” said Jonathan Miller, chief executive of Integrated Media, which specializes in digital media investments.
Regional banks, many of which recognize the need for scale, will also likely look to consolidate, said one former industry executive. That advisor noted that smaller banks had been getting gobbled up for “some time,” but that the pace and size of those acquisitions would likely ramp up under a Trump presidency.
Pharmaceutical executives are also optimistic that lighter antitrust enforcement could clear the way for deal-making, said one health-care-focused M&A advisor, who added that antitrust enforcement could have “hardly gotten worse” under either administration but now believes things will improve “meaningfully.”
Khan has taken on scores of biopharma mergers over the last four years, arguing that monopolies will stifle the development of new drugs in certain disease areas and hurt consumer choice. Biotech company Illumina last year said it would divest diagnostic test maker Grail after heated battles with the FTC and European antitrust regulators.
Also last year, the FTC blocked Sanofi’s proposed acquisition of a drug in development for Pompe disease, a genetic condition, from Maze Therapeutics. Sanofi ultimately terminated that deal.
“Whether or not Lina Khan is bounced day one is a key consideration, but even if fewer changes at the FTC take place, there is no doubt this administration — at least on paper — will be far more amicable when it comes to business combinations,” Jared Holz, Mizuho health-care equity strategist, said in an email on Wednesday.
One top dealmaker expected an M&A uptick broadly, but agreed that the financial sector and pharmaceuticals were particularly poised for a resurgence. That deal-maker also noted that with the Senate flipping, more outspoken antitrust voices like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., could find it more difficult to push for DOJ or FTC investigations.
Eyes on retail, media
David Zaslav at the Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference on July 9, 2024 in Sun Valley, Idaho.
David Grogan | CNBC
A Trump presidency could usher in a number of retail deals that have been hamstrung by the FTC. Kroger’sbid to take over grocery chain Albertsons could have a better chance of getting approved under Trump, as could Tapestry’s proposed acquisition of Capri.
The merger between Kroger and Albertsons is currently under review by a federal judge, while Tapestry is working to appeal a federal order that granted the FTC’s motion for a preliminary injunction against the tie-up.
“The hostile approach of the FTC to mergers and acquisitions will almost certainly be reset and replaced with a worldview that is more favorable to corporate dealmaking,” said GlobalData managing director Neil Saunders. “This does not necessarily mean that big deals like Kroger-Albertsons will be waved through, but it does mean others like Tapestry-Capri will receive a far warmer reception than they have under the Biden administration.”
Meanwhile, ongoing turmoil in the media industry has led many to consider consolidation as the next step for the sector.
Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav on Thursday highlighted opportunities that could come up if regulations were to loosen, doubling down on comments he made earlier this year at Allen & Co.’s annual Sun Valley conference.
“We have an upcoming new administration. … It’s too early to tell, but it may offer a pace of change and opportunity for consolidation that may be quite different, that would provide a real positive and accelerated impact on this industry that’s needed,” Zaslav said on an earnings call.
Broadcast station group owner Sinclair on Wednesday echoed a similar sentiment.
“We’re very excited about the upcoming regulatory environment,” CEO Chris Ripley said during an earnings call. “It does feel like a cloud over the industry is lifting here.”
Still, the track record between the previous Trump administration and the Biden administration for media industry deals is split.
Trump’s DOJ allowed Disney to buy Fox’s assets, but then sued to block AT&T’s deal for Time Warner.
Under the Biden administration, Amazon’s $8.5 billion deal for MGM and the merger of Warner Bros. and Discovery Communications were both waved through, but a federal judge blocked the $2.2 billion sale of Simon & Schuster to Penguin Random House.
Skydance Media and Paramount Global agreed to merge earlier this year and expect to receive regulatory approval in 2025.
Warren Buffett walks the floor ahead of the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting in Omaha, Nebraska on May 3, 2024.
David A. Grogen | CNBC
Berkshire Hathaway shares got a boost after Warren Buffett’s conglomerate reported a surge in operating earnings, but shareholders who were waiting for news of what will happen to its enormous pile of cash might be disappointed.
Class A shares of the Omaha-based parent of Geico and BNSF Railway rose 1.2% premarket Monday following Berkshire’s earnings report over the weekend. Berkshire’s operating profit — earnings from the company’s wholly owned businesses — skyrocketed 71% to $14.5 billion in the fourth quarter, aided by insurance underwriting, where profits jumped 302% from the year-earlier period, to $3.4 billion.
Berkshire’s investment gains from its portfolio holdings slowed sharply, however, in the fourth quarter, to $5.2 billion from $29.1 billion in the year-earlier period. Berkshire sold more equities than it bought for a ninth consecutive quarter in the three months of last year, bringing total sale of equities to more than $134 billion in 2024. Notably, the 94-year-old investor has been aggressively shrinking Berkshire’s two largest equity holdings — Apple and Bank of America.
As a result of the selling spree, Berkshire’s gigantic cash pile grew to another record of $334.2 billion, up from $325.2 billion at the end of the third quarter.
In Buffett’s annual letter, the “Oracle of Omaha” said that raising a record amount of cash didn’t reflect a dimming of his love for buying stocks and businesses.
“Despite what some commentators currently view as an extraordinary cash position at Berkshire, the great majority of your money remains in equities,” Buffett wrote. “That preference won’t change.”
He hinted that high valuations were the reason for sitting on his hands amid a raging bull market, saying “often, nothing looks compelling.” Buffett also endorsed the ability of Greg Abek, his chosen successor, to pick equity opportunities, even comparing him to the late Charlie Munger.
Meanwhile, Berkshire’s buyback halt is still in place as the conglomerate repurchased zero shares in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter of this year, through Feb. 10.
Some investors and analysts expressed impatience with the lack of action and continued to wait for an explanation, while others have faith that Buffett’s conservative stance will pave the way for big opportunities in the next downturn.
“Shareholders should take comfort in knowing that the firm continues to be managed to survive and emerge stronger from any economic or market downturn by being in a financial position to take advantage of opportunities during a crisis,” said Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust Company and a Berkshire shareholder.
Berkshire is coming off a strong year, when it rallied 25.5% in 2024, outperforming the S&P 500 — its best since 2021. The stock is up more than 5% so far in 2025.
Check out the companies making headlines before the bell. Domino’s Pizza — Shares fell more than 3% after the pizza chain reported fourth-quarter numbers that missed expectations. The company earned $4.89 per share on revenue of $1.44 billion. Analysts polled by FactSet expected a profit of $4.90 per share on revenue of $1.48 billion. U.S. same-store, a key metric for the company, increased by 0.4%. That was also below a consensus forecast calling for a 1.1% advance. Nike — Shares popped 2% on the back of Jefferies’ upgrade to buy from hold. Jefferies said the athletic apparel maker is turning “back on its innovation engine.” Palantir Technologies — The stock dropped more than 3%, adding to its steep declines from last week amid concern that retail investors may be dumping the AI play. Palantir dropped 14.9% last week, its biggest weekly drop since January. Alibaba — The Chinese e-commerce giant slipped 3%, reversing some of its 15% rally last week on the back of its latest strong earnings report. Monday’s premarket slide came despite an upgrade to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley. Analyst Gary Yu said that Alibaba was poised for continued leadership in the artificial intelligence cloud market. Berkshire Hathaway — Class B shares of Warren Buffett’s conglomerate rose more than 1% in premarket after the firm said its operating profit skyrocketed 71% to $14.5 billion during the final three months of 2024. That was led by a 302% jump in insurance underwriting. Robinhood — The retail trading platform added around 2% after Robinhood said the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dismissed its investigation of the company’s cryptocurrency segment. Energy companies — Select power company stocks slipped on Monday morning, extending their Friday declines, following the release of a TD Cowen report last week on data centers and Microsoft. In the note, analyst Michael Elias said that MSFT had “cancelled leases in the U.S. totaling ‘a couple of hundred MWs’ with at least two private data center operators.” Shares of Vistra , Talen Energy and GE Vernova all shed less than 1%. Rivian — The electric vehicle stock shed 3% following a downgrade to underperform from neutral at Bank of America. Analyst John Murphy said that the company remains “one of the most viable” EV startups, but a softer-than-expected 2025 outlook, mounting competition, and slowing EV demand combined with a potential pullback in U.S. EV incentives pose headwinds for shares. Freshpet — Shares popped 4% after Jefferies upgraded the pet food retailer to buy from hold, saying the stock is “worth 50% above” where it’s currently trading. The firm expects that Freshpet can compound sales 23% by 2027. The stock is down 32% this year. — CNBC’s Sean Conlon, Brian Evans, Alex Harring, Fred Imbert, Sarah Min and Yun Li contributed reporting.
Tensions between the world’s two largest economies have escalated over the last several years.
Florence Lo | Reuters
BEIJING — China is trying yet again to boost foreign investment, amid geopolitical tensions and businesses’ calls for more concrete actions.
On Feb. 19, authorities published a “2025 action plan for stabilizing foreign investment” to make it easier for foreign capital to invest in domestic telecommunication and biotechnology industries, according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese.
The document called for clearer standards in government procurement — a major issue for foreign businesses in China — and for the development of a plan to gradually allow foreign investment in the education and culture sectors.
“We are looking forward to see this implemented in a manner that delivers tangible benefits for our members,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said in a statement Thursday.
The chamber pointed out that China has already mentioned plans to open up telecommunications, health care, education and culture to foreign investment. Greater clarity on public procurement requirements is a “notable positive,” the chamber said, noting that “if fully implemented,” it could benefit foreign companies that have invested heavily to localize their production in China.
China’s latest action plan was released around the same time the Commerce Ministry disclosed that foreign direct investment in January fell by 13.4% to 97.59 billion yuan ($13.46 billion). That was after FDI plunged by 27.1% in 2024 and dropped by 8% in 2023, after at least eight straight years of annual growth, according to official data available through Wind Information.
All regions should “ensure that all the measures are implemented in 2025, and effectively boost foreign investment confidence,” the plan said. The Ministry of Commerce and National Development and Reform Commission — the economic planning agency — jointly released the action plan through the government’s executive body, the State Council.
Officials from the Commerce Ministry emphasized in a press conference Thursday that the action plan would be implemented by the end of 2025, and that details on subsequent supportive measures would come soon.
“We appreciate the Chinese government’s recognition of the vital role foreign companies play in the economy,” Michael Hart, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said in a statement. “We look forward to further discussions on the key challenges our members face and the steps needed to ensure a more level playing field for market access.”
AmCham China’s latest survey of members, released last month, found that a record share are considering or have started diversifying manufacturing or sourcing away from China. The prior year’s survey had found members were finding it harder to make money in China than before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Consumer spending in China has remained lackluster since the pandemic, with retail sales only growing by the low single digits in recent months. Tensions with the U.S. have meanwhile escalated as the White House has restricted Chinese access to advanced technology and levied tariffs on Chinese goods.
‘A very strong signal’
While many aspects of the action plan were publicly mentioned last year, some points — such as allowing foreign companies to buy local equity stakes using domestic loans — are relatively new, said Xiaojia Sun, Beijing-based partner at JunHe Law.
She also highlighted the plan’s call to support foreign investors’ ability to participate in mergers and acquisitions in China, and noted it potentially benefits overseas listings. Sun’s practice covers corporates, mergers and acquisitions and capital markets.
The bigger question remains China’s resolve to act on the plan.
“This action plan is a very strong signal,” Sun said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. She said she expects Beijing to follow through with implementation, and noted that its release was similar to a rare, high-profile meeting earlier in the week of Chinese President Xi Jinping and entrepreneurs.
That gathering on Feb. 17 included Alibaba founder Jack Ma and DeepSeek’s Liang Wenfeng. In recent years, regulatory crackdowns and uncertainty about future growth had dampened business confidence and foreign investor sentiment.
China needs to strike a balance between tariff retaliation and stabilizing FDI, Citi analysts pointed out earlier this month.
“We believe China policymakers are likely cautious about targeting U.S. [multinationals] as a form of retaliation against U.S. tariffs,” the analysts said. “FDI comes into China, bringing technology and know-how, creating jobs, revenue and profit, and contributing to tax revenue.”
In a relatively rare acknowledgement, Chinese Commerce Ministry officials on Thursday noted the impact of geopolitical tensions on foreign investment, including some companies’ decision to diversify away from China. They also pointed out that foreign-invested firms contribute to nearly 7% of employment and around 14% of taxes in the country.
Previously, official commentary from the Commerce Ministry about any drop in FDI tended to focus only on how most foreign businesses remained optimistic about long-term prospects in China.