Customers shop in a Walmart Supercenter on February 20, 2024 in Hallandale Beach, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Walmart’s majority-owned fintech startup One has begun offering buy now, pay later loans for big-ticket items at some of the retailer’s more than 4,600 U.S. stores, CNBC has learned.
The move puts One in direct competition with Affirm, the BNPL leader and exclusive provider of installment loans for Walmart customers since 2019. It’s a relationship that the Bentonville, Arkansas, retailer expanded recently, introducing Affirm as a payment option at Walmart self-checkout kiosks.
It also likely signals that a battle is brewing in the store aisles and ecommerce portals of America’s largest retailer. At stake is the role of a wide spectrum of players, from fintech firms to card companies and established banks.
One’s push into lending is the clearest sign yet of its ambition to become a financial superapp, a mobile one-stop shop for saving, spending and borrowing money.
Since it burst onto the scene in 2021, luring Goldman Sachs veteran Omer Ismail as CEO, the fintech startup has intrigued and threatened a financial landscape dominated by banks — and poached talent from more established lenders and payments firms.
But the company, based out of a cramped Manhattan WeWork space, has operated mostly in stealth mode while developing its early products, including a debit account released in 2022.
Now, One is going head-to-head with some of Walmart’s existing partners like Affirm who helped the retail giant generate $648 billion in revenue last year.
Walmart’s Fintech startup One is now offering BNPL loans in Secaucus, New Jersey.
Hugh Son | CNBC
On a recent visit by CNBC to a New Jersey Walmart location, ads for both One and Affirm vied for attention among the Apple products and Android smartphones in the store’s electronics section.
Offerings from both One and Affirm were available at checkout, and loans from either provider were available for purchases starting at around $100 and costing as much as several thousand dollars at an annual interest rate of between 10% to 36%, according to their respective websites.
Electronics, jewelry, power tools and automotive accessories are eligible for the loans, while groceries, alcohol and weapons are not.
Buy now, pay later has gained popularity with consumers for everyday items as well as larger purchases. From January through March of this year, BNPL drove $19.2 billion in online spending, according to Adobe Analytics. That’s a 12% year-over-year increase.
Walmart and One declined to comment for this article.
Who stays, who goes?
One’s expanding role at Walmart raises the possibility that the company could force Affirm, Capital One and other third parties out of some of the most coveted partnerships in American retail, according to industry experts.
“I have to imagine the goal is to have all this stuff, whether it’s a credit card, buy now, pay later loans or remittances, to have it all unified in an app under a single brand, delivered online and through Walmart’s physical footprint,” said Jason Mikula, a consultant formerly employed at Goldman’s consumer division.
Affirm declined to comment about its Walmart partnership. Shares of Affirm climbed 2% Tuesday, rebounding after falling more than 8% in premarket activity.
For Walmart, One is part of its broader effort to develop new revenue sources beyond its retail stores in areas including finance and health care, following rival Amazon’s playbook with cloud computing and streaming, among other segments. Walmart’s newer businesses have higher margins than retail and are a part of its plan to grow profits faster than sales.
In February, Walmart said it was buying TV maker Vizio for $2.3 billion to boost its advertising business, another growth area for the retailer.
‘Bank of Walmart’
When it comes to finance, One is just Walmart’s latest attempt to break into the banking business. Starting in the 1990s, Walmart made repeated efforts to enter the industry through direct ownership of a banking arm, each time getting blocked by lawmakers and industry groups concerned that a “Bank of Walmart” would crush small lenders and squeeze big ones.
To sidestep those concerns, Walmart adopted a more arms-length approach this time around. For One, the retailer created a joint venture with investment firm firm Ribbit Capital — known for backing fintech firms including Robinhood, Credit Karma and Affirm — and staffed the business with executives from across finance.
Walmart has not disclosed the size of its investment in One.
The startup has said that it makes decisions independent of Walmart, though its board includes Walmart U.S. CEO, John Furner, and its finance chief, John David Rainey.
One doesn’t have a banking license, but partners with Coastal Community Bank for the debit card and installment loans.
After its failed early attempts in banking, Walmart pursued a partnership strategy, teaming up with a constellation of providers, including Capital One, Synchrony, MoneyGram, Green Dot, and more recently, Affirm. Leaning on partners, the retailer opened thousands of physical MoneyCenter locations within its stores to offer check cashing, sending and receiving payments, and tax services.
From paper to pixels
But Walmart and One executives have made no secret of their ambition to become a major player in financial services by leapfrogging existing players with a clean-slate effort.
One’s no-fee approach is especially relevant to low- and middle-income Americans who are “underserved financially,” Rainey, a former PayPal executive, noted during a December conference.
“We see a lot of that customer demographic, so I think it gives us the ability to participate in this space in maybe a way that others don’t,” Rainey said. “We can digitize a lot of the services that we do physically today. One is the platform for that.”
One could generate roughly $1.6 billion in annual revenue from debit cards and lending in the near term, and more than $4 billion if it expands into investing and other areas, according to Morgan Stanley.
Walmart can use its scale to grow One in other ways. It is the largest private employer in the U.S. with about 1.6 million employees, and it already offers its workers early access to wages if they sign up for a corporate version of One.
Walmart’s next card
There are signs that One is making a deeper push into lending beyond installment loans.
Walmart recently prevailed in a legal dispute with Capital One, allowing the retailer to end its credit-card partnership years ahead of schedule. Walmart sued Capital One last year, alleging that its exclusive partnership with the card issuer was void after it failed to live up to contractual obligations around customer service, assertions that Capital One denied.
The lawsuit led to speculation that Walmart intends to have One take over management of the retailer’s co-branded and store cards. In fact, in legal filings Capital One itself alleged that Walmart’s rationale was less about servicing complaints and more about moving transactions to a company it owns.
“Upon information and belief, Walmart intends to offer its branded credit cards through One in the future,” Capital One said last year in response to Walmart’s suit. “With One, Walmart is positioning itself to compete directly with Capital One to provide credit and payment products to Walmart customers.”
A Capital One Walmart credit card sign is seen at a store in Mountain View, California, United States on Tuesday, November 19, 2019.
Yichuan Cao | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Capital One said last month that it could appeal the decision. The company declined to comment further.
Meanwhile, Walmart said last year when its lawsuit became public that it would soon announce a new credit card option with “meaningful benefits and rewards.”
One has obtained lending licenses that allow it to operate in nearly every U.S. state, according to filings and its website. The company’s app tells users that credit building and credit score monitoring services are coming soon.
Catching Cash App, Chime
And while One’s expansion threatens to supersede Walmart’s existing financial partners, Walmart’s efforts could also be seen as defensive.
Fintech players including Block’s Cash App, PayPal and Chime dominate account growth among people who switch bank accounts and have made inroads with Walmart’s core demographic. The three services made up 60% of digital player signups last year, according to data and consultancy firm Curinos.
But One has the advantage of being majority owned by a company whose customers make more than 200 million visits a week.
It can offer them enticements including 3% cashback on Walmart purchases and a savings account that pays 5% interest annually, far higher than most banks, according to customer emails from One.
Those terms keep customers spending and saving within the Walmart ecosystem and helps the retailer better understand them, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a 2022 research note.
“One has access to Walmart’s sizable and sticky customer base, the largest in retail,” the analysts wrote. “This captive and underserved customer base gives One a leg up vs. other fintechs.”
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on “The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress,” at Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., Feb. 11, 2025.
Craig Hudson | Reuters
The popular narrative among Federal Reserve policymakers these days is that policy is “well-positioned” to adjust to any upside or downside risks ahead. However, it might be more accurate to say that policy is stuck in position.
With an abundance of unknowns swirling through the economy and the halls of Washington, the only gear the central bank really can be in these days is neutral as it begins what could be a long wait for certainty on what’s actually ahead.
“In recent weeks, we’ve heard not only enthusiasm — particularly from banks, about possible shifts in tax and regulatory policies — but also widespread apprehension about future trade and immigration policy,” Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said in a blog post. “These crosscurrents inject still more complexity into policymaking.”
Bostic’s comments came during an active week for what is known on Wall Street as “Fedspeak,” or the chatter that happens between policy meetings from Chair Jerome Powell, central bank governors and regional presidents.
Officials who have spoken frequently described policy as “well-positioned” — the language is now a staple of post-meeting statements. But increasingly, they are expressing caution about the volatility coming from President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade and economic agenda, as well as other factors that could influence policy.
“Uncertainty” is an increasingly common theme. In fact, Bostic titled his Thursday blog post “Uncertainty Calls for Caution, Humility in Policymaking.” A day earlier, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee released minutes from the Jan. 28-29 meeting, with a dozen references to the uncertain climate in the document.
The minutes specifically cited “elevated uncertainty regarding the scope, timing, and potential economic effects of possible changes to trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies.”
Uncertainty factors into the Fed’s decision making in two ways: the impact that it has on the employment picture, which has been relatively stable, and inflation, which has been easing but could rise again as consumers and business leaders get spooked about the impact tariffs could have on prices.
Missing the target
The Fed targets inflation at 2%, a goal that has remained elusive for going on four years.
“Right now, I see the risks of inflation staying above target as skewed to the upside,” St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem told reporters Thursday. “My baseline scenario is one where inflation continues to converge towards 2%, providing monetary policy remains modestly restrictive, and that will take time. I think there is a potential for inflation to remain high and activity to slow. … That’s an alternative scenario, not a baseline scenario, but I’m attentive to it.”
The operative in Musalem’s comment is that policy holds at “modestly restrictive,” which is where he considers the current level of the fed funds rate between 4.25%-4.5%. Bostic was a little less explicit on feeling the need to keep rates on hold, but emphasized that “this is no time for complacency” and noted that “additional threats to price stability may emerge.”
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee, thought to be among the least hawkish FOMC members when it comes to inflation, was more measured in his assessment of tariffs and did not offer commentary in separate appearances, including one on CNBC, on where he thinks rates should go.
“If you’re just thinking about tariffs, it depends how many countries are they going to apply to, and how big are they going to be, and the more it looks like a Covid-sized shock, the more nervous you should be,” Goolsbee said.
Many risks ahead
More broadly, though, the January minutes indicated a Fed highly attuned to potential shocks and not interested in testing the waters with any further interest rate moves. The meeting summary pointedly noted that committee members want “further progress on inflation before making additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate.”
There’s also more than just tariffs and inflation to worry about.
The minutes characterized the risks to financial stability as “notable,” specifically in the area of leverage and the level of long-duration debt that banks are holding.
Prominent economist Mark Zandi — not normally an alarmist — said in a panel discussion presented by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation that he worries about dangers to the $46.2 trillion U.S. bond market.
“In my view, the biggest risk is that we see a major sell off in the bond market,” said Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “The bond market feels incredibly fragile to me. The plumbing is broken. The primary dealers aren’t keeping up with the amount of debt outstanding.”
“There’s just so many things coming together that I think there’s a very significant threat that at some point over the next 12 months, we see a major sell-off in the bond market,” he added.
In this climate, he said, there’s scant chance for the Fed to cut rates — though markets are pricing in the potential for a half percentage point in reductions by the end of the year.
That’s wishful thinking considering tariffs and other intangibles hanging over the Fed’s head, Zandi said.
“I just don’t see the Fed cutting interest rates here until you get a better feel about inflation coming back to target,” he said. “The economy came into 2025 in a pretty good spot. Feels like it’s performing well. Should be able to weather a lot of storms. But it feels like there’s a lot of storms coming.”
Alibaba is back in the spotlight — with U.S.-traded shares soaring nearly 70% so far in 2025 — as a favored play on Chinese artificial intelligence. The company said Thursday its AI-related product revenue grew by triple digits for a sixth-straight quarter in the period ended December. Its Qwen AI model has proven itself a capable rival to DeepSeek , along with winning a deal for iPhones sold in China . Founder Jack Ma, once politically sidelined, made his latest public reappearance on Feb. 17 — with a front-row seat at a rare meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping held with entrepreneurs , including DeepSeek’s Liang Wenfeng. Several analysts think Alibaba’s gains will continue, with Jefferies setting a $156 price target as of Feb. 20. That’s upside of more than 8% from Friday’s close of $143.75. UBS equity strategists on Thursday said they have switched out PDD for Alibaba in a model portfolio “given its exposure to AI and quant factors.” Remember how just several months ago the Temu parent had a larger market cap , raising concerns that Alibaba was struggling to compete on its core e-commerce business? Taobao and Tmall Group saw sales rise 5% in the latest quarter. As excited as many investors are about AI opportunities in China, crowding into related stocks has only picked up by 0.02 so far this year on UBS’s scoring system. That’s far below the increase of 0.2 in the crowding score for U.S. AI-related names over the last two years, UBS said. Alibaba had the highest crowding score among large Chinese internet technology names, the report said. “Our Quants team’s analysis previously suggested that stocks with reasonable but improving crowding have seen the most near-term outperformance.” Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index hit a three-year high Friday with China Unicom, Lenovo and Alibaba’s locally traded shares leading gains. “Should investors rotate from Alibaba to the AI trade laggers (i.e. Tencent and Baidu)? Not for now,” JPMorgan internet analyst Alex Yao wrote in a Feb. 17 note. “We think both Tencent and Baidu’s share prices could be driven by AI development in different ways with different risks.” U.S.-listed shares of Baidu are up by about 8% for the year so far, despite the company sharing on Feb. 18 that its AI Cloud revenue rose 26% year-on-year to 7.1 billion yuan in the fourth quarter. Hong Kong-traded shares of Tencent , which has yet to report earnings for the period, have risen by about 24% for the year so far. JPMorgan is neutral on Baidu, but overweight on Tencent and Alibaba. The firm has a price target of $125 on Alibaba shares, suggesting a 13% decline from Friday’s close. At least four other major investment firms have a buy rating on Alibaba. But Morgan Stanley is notably more cautious with an equal-weight rating and a price target of $100. That would imply a drop of 30% from Friday’s close. The firm pointed out that Alibaba’s capital expenditures were 11% of revenue in the latest quarter, versus 3% in the prior quarter — a potential weight on future margins that management warned about. Morgan Stanley also highlighted risks such as weaker consumption and a slower pace of enterprise digitalization. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon contends the retailer’s stock sell-off tied to a slowing profit growth forecast and tariff fears is creating a major opportunity for investors.
“I absolutely thought their guidance was pretty strong given the fact that… nobody knows what’s going to happen with tariffs,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday, the day Walmart reported fiscal fourth-quarter results.
But even if U.S. tariffs against Canada and Mexico move forward, Simon predicts “nothing” should happen to Walmart.
“Ultimately, the consumer decides whether there’s a tariff or not,” said Simon. “There’s a tariff on avocados from Mexico. Do you have guacamole with your chips or do you have salsa and queso where there is no tariff?”
Plus, Simon, who’s now on the Darden Restaurants board and is the chairman at Hanesbrands, sees Walmart as a nimble retailer.
“The big guys, Walmart,Costco,Target, Amazon… have the supply and the sourcing capability to mitigate tariffs by redirecting the product – bringing it in from different places [and] developing their own private labels,” said Simon. “Those guys will figure out tariffs.”
Walmart shares just saw their worst weekly performance since May 2022 — tumbling almost 9%. The stock price fell more than 6% on its earnings day alone. It was the stock’s worst daily performance since November 2023.
Simon thinks the sell-off is bizarre.
“I thought if you hit your numbers and did well and beat your earnings, things would usually go well for you in the market. But little do we know. You got to have some magic dust,” he said. “I don’t know how you could have done much better for the quarter.”
It’s a departure from his stance last May on “Fast Money” when he warned affluent consumers were creating a “bubble” at Walmart. It came with Walmart shares hitting record highs. He noted historical trends pointed to an eventual shift back to service from convenience and price.
But now Simon thinks the economic and geopolitical backdrop is so unprecedented, higher-income consumers may shop at Walmart permanently.
“If you liked that story yesterday before the earnings release, you should love it today because it’s… cheaper,” said Simon.
Walmart stock is now down 10% from its all-time high hit on Feb. 14. However, it’s still up about 64% over the past 52 weeks.
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