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Washington D.C. unemployment spikes as Trump and Musk begin efforts to shrink the government

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Elon Musk listens to U.S. President Donald Trump speak in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., Feb. 11, 2025. 

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

President Donald Trump’s moves to fire thousands of federal government workers have coincided with a surge in jobless claims in Washington D.C. that could get worse as the efforts intensify.

Since Trump has taken office, nearly 4,000 workers in the city have filed for unemployment insurance as part of a surge that began at the start of the new year, according to Labor Department figures not adjusted for seasonal factors.

In all, just shy of 7,000 claims have been filed in the six weeks of the new year, or about 55% more than in the prior six-week period. Filings rose to 1,780 for the week ending Feb. 8, a 36% increase from the prior week and more than four times around the same period in 2024.

By contrast, the total level of claims in the U.S. has been moving little, with the four-week moving average of initial claims at 216,000, little changed from the beginning of the year and actually trending lower for the most part over the past several months.

The jump in D.C. claims come as Trump and the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency advisory board have ordered layoffs across the government structure and instituted buyout programs for early retirement.

“I expect it to go higher, and definitely we’ll be watching it very closely,” said Raj Namboothiry, senior vice president at Manpower North America, the workforce solutions company.

While it’s unclear what share of the spike is directly related to federal government workers, the rise coincides with the White House ordering the layoffs of probationary employees along with thousands of others as the administration seeks a broad-based reduction in the labor force. In addition, some 75,000 employees have accepted the buyout offer.

Washington D.C. had one of the highest unemployment rates in the country at 5.5% as of December 2024, surpassed only by Nevada, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, the metropolitan area including the Arlington and Alexandria, Va., area was at just 2.7%. The national unemployment rate for the month was 4.1%, before slipping to 4% in January.

Broader labor picture still solid

Namboothiry said the reduction of the federal workforce could present some problems in the region, though it would do little to dent a national picture that he called “fairly stable.”

“Yes, the numbers are definitely sizable,” he said. “But because you’re spread across multiple [geographies], multiple skill sets, multiple sectors, I don’t see that playing a significant role in impacting the overall market.”

There are about about 2.4 million federal workers, excluding post office employees, with nearly one-fifth employed in the D.C. area and the others spread around the country. Outside of spikes around tax season, the number has held fairly constant since the late 1960s.

Still, Trump has targeted the federal employment rolls as a major part of his effort to shrink the size of government.

Displaced employees may not be out of work long, however. Namboothiry thinks their skill sets could be in high demand for certain sectors of the economy.

“This presents an opportunity, because there are clients who are looking for talent that’s exiting that may benefit,” he said. “There’s going to be some conversations around an interest from employers with this pool of talent.”

The cuts that Trump are targeting are spread around the government, with some agencies expecting dramatic cutbacks.

How those displaced employees fare will depend on their fields of work, said Allison Shrivastava, economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab.

“It might be that very few of them remain without work,” she said. “It definitely depends on sector. So for example, if you are, As Trump ramps up layoffs, unemployment claims start to spike in Washington, D.C. you’re in the accounting sector right now, that’s a sector that, in terms of job postings, we’ve seen perform pretty well. Say you’re in software development … those jobs have not been as in demand. The level of difficulty that you would have in finding a job would really be contingent on the sector that you’re in.”

Economics

Andrew Bailey on why UK-U.S. trade deal won’t end uncertainty

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Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey attends the central bank’s Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in the City of London, on May 8, 2025.

Carlos Jasso | Afp | Getty Images

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told CNBC on Thursday that the U.K. was heading for more economic uncertainty, despite the country being the first to strike a trade agreement with the U.S. under President Donald Trump’s controversial tariff regime.

“The tariff and trade situation has injected more uncertainty into the situation… There’s more uncertainty now than there was in the past,” Bailey told CNBC in an interview.

“A U.K.-U.S. trade agreement is very welcome in that sense, very welcome. But the U.K. is a very open economy,” he continued.

That means that the impact from tariffs on the U.K. economy comes not just from its own trade relationship with Washington, but also from those of the U.S. and the rest of the world, he said.

“I hope that what we’re seeing on the U.K.-U.S. trade side will be the first of many, and it will be repeated by a whole series of trade agreements, but we have to see that happen of course, and where it actually ends up.”

“Because, of course, we are looking at tariff levels that are probably higher than they were beforehand.”

Trump unveils United Kingdom trade deal, first since ‘reciprocal’ tariff pause

In Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report released Thursday, the word “uncertainty” was used 41 times across its 97 pages, up from 36 times in February, according to a CNBC tally.

The U.K. central bank cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Thursday, taking its key rate to 4.25%. The decision was highly divided among the seven members of its Monetary Policy Committee, with five voting for the 25 basis point cut, two voting to hold rates and two voting to reduce by a larger 50 basis points.

Bailey said that while some analysts had perceived the rate decision as more hawkish than expected — in other words, leaning toward holding rates elevated than slashing them rapidly — he was not surprised by the close vote.

“What it reflects is that there are two sides, there are risks on both sides here,” he told CNBC.

“We could get a much more severe weakness of demand than we were expecting, that could then pass through to a weaker outlook for inflation than we were expecting.”

“There’s a risk on the other side that we could get some combination of more persistence in the inflation effects that are gradually working their way through the system,” such as in wages and energy, while “supply capacity in the economy is weaker,” he said.

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Economics

Trump knocks down a controversial pillar of civil-rights law

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IN THE DELUGE of 145 executive orders issued by President Donald Trump (on subjects as disparate as “Restoring American Seafood Competitiveness” and “Maintaining Acceptable Water Pressure in Showerheads”) it can be difficult to discern which are truly consequential. But one of them, signed on April 23rd under the bland headline “Restoring Equality of Opportunity and Meritocracy”, aims to remake civil-rights law. Those primed to distrust Mr Trump on such matters may be surprised to learn that the president’s target is not just important but also well-chosen.

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Economics

Harvard has more problems than Donald Trump

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A Programme at Harvard Divinity School aspired to “deZionize Jewish consciousness”. During “privilege trainings”, working-class Harvard students were instructed that, by being Jewish, they were oppressing wealthier, better prepared classmates. A course in Harvard’s graduate school of public health, “The Settler Colonial Determinants of Health”, sought to “interrogate the relationships between settler colonialism, Zionism, antisemitism, and other forms of racism”: Will these findings by Harvard’s task-force on antisemitism and anti-Israel bias, released on April 29th, shock anyone? Maybe not. Americans may be numb by now to bulletins about the excesses, not to say inanities, of some leftist academics.

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